N4L Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 I posted in the other thread that I had the chargers +7 I also parlayed the living **** out of it with bills -3 (along with the under 8.5 in the dodgers game, and a separate one that had the braves ML) so three parlays all with only the bills -3 left to win more than I did yesterday So my question is, should I hedge? I mean, we are talking some serious cash here so I feel like I should, but also, the bills feel like the right play. Would everyone here agree that bufflo is the smart play? I also jumped on the Ravens -7 and the Rams -3 yesterday (even though I felt dirty doing it, I have only bet against my team like once before in my life). Feels like both lines are going to move. I hate to make a bet so early during covid but LIS, both lines are going to move and 7/3 are crucial numbers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 @ET80 I am eyeing the over in Houston Tennessee. Its 53. What are your thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, N4L said: @ET80 I am eyeing the over in Houston Tennessee. Its 53. What are your thoughts? but can jax do their part? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Ramster Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 (edited) 13 hours ago, N4L said: @ET80 I am eyeing the over in Houston Tennessee. Its 53. What are your thoughts? Way ahead of you. hug me ahh I can’t post it. But I bet 100 Edited October 15, 2020 by El Ramster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indifference Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Bengals ML Redskins ML Bears ML Texans ML 4 team parlay - $25 to $1100 I love this week for dogs. I’m most likely going to do another one with diff teams. Bucs, JAX, Falcons, Eagles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Just now, indifference said: Bengals ML Redskins ML Bears ML Texans ML 4 team parlay - $25 to $1100 I love this week for dogs. I’m most likely going to do another one with diff teams. Bucs, JAX, Falcons, Eagles. my problem with this type of bet is that by taking so many MLs you are betting on lighting striking in 4 different games all at the same time. You would be better off playing them all straight 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indifference Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, N4L said: my problem with this type of bet is that by taking so many MLs you are betting on lighting striking in 4 different games all at the same time. You would be better off playing them all straight Every week at least 4 under dogs win. Just have to get the 4 right. I’ve been 1 game away damn near every week. I could do straight but the payout would not be as high. Edited October 15, 2020 by indifference Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 13 hours ago, N4L said: @ET80 I am eyeing the over in Houston Tennessee. Its 53. What are your thoughts? I'm actually thinking it'll be just below that number 35-14, with Tennessee taking the foot off the gas after building a huge lead. This will be a good opportunity for key Titans to get rest after a very short week... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Eagles +7.5 Rams -2.5 Cowboys +2.5 Steelers -3.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 1 hour ago, indifference said: I’ve been 1 game away damn near every week. I think this is the message N4L was trying to deliver 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Warren Sharp with his views on the early betting lines. I pulled out the Packers-Bucs just due to the huge swing https://www.rotoworld.com/article/line-items/week-6-early-line-movement Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Oddsmakers initially set this lookahead at Tampa Bay -3 after the Packers Monday night win over the Falcons. Bettors bet that down all the way to Bucs -2.5 before oddsmakers took it down prior to Tampa’s Thursday night game against the Bears. Tampa lost outright as short road favorites. Oddsmakers reposted it at Tampa -1.5 before reversing course and reposting it at Tampa +1. Since that point, the early action has continued to come in on the Packers, betting this line all the way up to the Packers -2.5. That’s a massive 5.5 point swing despite no injuries at all. The total opened at 52 and has been bet up to 54.5. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, N4L said: my problem with this type of bet is that by taking so many MLs you are betting on lighting striking in 4 different games all at the same time. You would be better off playing them all straight Or at least take the points. I know the payout isn't as good, but you need all of them to hit to make it pay. The other reason - if you are on the last leg of the parley, and you're still alive - you can hedge the fave with the points for equity. You can't really hedge a fave ML. Side topic - ppl who put more than 10 percent of their stake on parleys are just donating. It's OK if ppl want to look for lightning to strike, but you're not going to build your stake if you're relying on parleys. Put 90 percent on single-game / player props, and 10 percent on parleys. And even then, it's probably a little too high. And to be clear, I parley each week. On that note, only 3 bets stick out so far: LAR -2.5 ARI -2.5 CIN +9.5 (think IND pulls it out, but no way I give CIN 9 pts). Edited October 15, 2020 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 My new rule with TEN: -Love them as dogs -Hate them as 3+ pt faves. Prove me wrong, Titans (so far, though....DEN, MIN faves by 3+, JAX 7 pts....BUF, go in as dogs - and I recall this happening in 2019). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indifference Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 2 hours ago, Shanedorf said: I think this is the message N4L was trying to deliver I understand that. That’s just one of my bets. I will have other tickets as well with a lot more money at stake. $25 is chump change so I do mind taking that risk really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 On 10/12/2020 at 9:58 PM, N4L said: I also jumped on the Ravens -7 and the Rams -3 yesterday (even though I felt dirty doing it, I have only bet against my team like once before in my life). Feels like both lines are going to move. I hate to make a bet so early during covid but LIS, both lines are going to move and 7/3 are crucial numbers Ravens are now -10 Rams line hasnt moved much but I expect it to as we get closer to kick off. I actually see a lot of people betting on the niners. I just cant justify it this week. 3 points is not enough points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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