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Weekly Bets Thread


BStanRamFan

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Devaughn Vele out - Lil Jordan Humphrey back for +1300 / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U on TheScore.   FD +1300.     

Hayden Hurst suddenly went up to +900 / +15000 2+ on the Score instead.    Able to cash out Hurst w/o penalty on FD & go there   

Simi Fehoko is +2000 / +40000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U on TheScore.   He’s the 3rd WR with Josh Palmer out; Derrius Davis & Chark are the competition and he gets RZ snap because of his blocking.  0.4U / 0.1U.  

Vele / Pruitt voided.

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On 9/18/2024 at 11:34 PM, Broncofan said:

OK so MNF lines are trickling out, so time to get that card posted:

WEEK 3 MNF

ATS/ML 

BUF/JAX U45.5 - the Bills & Jags are both bottom-6 in plays run per 2 games so far...and they are both heavily run-based, with a -5% pass rate over expectation.     Without TO's, or chunk plays, that translates to a lower scoring game than advertised.   I'm never a huge fan of unders entertainment wise, but barring OT or a completely different gameplan, I expect this to be a much more lower scoring affair than ppl expect.

 

PLAYER PROPS

Travis Etienne O48.5 rush yds 2U, 62+ rush yds +200 1U, 81+ rush yds +500 0.5U DK @ BUF - BUF has given up 260 yds rushing in game.   Yes, Kyler Murray accounts for 57 of those yards, but the general inability to stop the run is still part of the BUF D with Milano & the safeties gone.   Etienne also has a real chance to be playing without Tank Bigbsy, who left WK2 with a shoulder injury after fumbling (got destroyed on the KO return).   Either way, this line is insanely low for a team that looks to run the ball.   Etienne doesn't even need to be the bell cow to get into alt line territory.

Khalil Shakir O43.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +200 1U DK vs. JAX - while I expect this to be a low-scoring game, I expect BUF to use the short pass game vs. the DB's to succeed more this game.   Why?  Well, JAX is a top 5 run D, if not top 3, but their CB's struggle (and their best CB, Tyson Campbell, is out).    Given BUF's lower pass volume, I'm trusting their most targeted and versatile WR, Shakir.  The emphasis on slow pace and using more run does limit me to a single-alt line here, though.  And that stingy run D is why I have to pass on James Cook even after that amazing game against MIA.

Brian Robinson O50.5 rush yds 2U, 66+ rush yds +210 1U, 90+ rush yds +700 0.5U DK @ CIN - I get that CIN is a 7.5 pt favorite.   But their run D is atrocious, and if WAS wants to protect Jayden Daniels, they'll do what teams have done for ages, and this year, doing to counter the smaller faster personnel on D - run. the. ball.    Even if WAS is in trail mode, CIN's leaky run D could give up alt lines in 12-15 rushes, so I'm pretty comfortable with the full 3.5U alt line here.



Ja'Marr Chase's line is set O79.5, which hardly provided any real alt line value, so I have to pass on that for now.    I really considered Zack Moss's O52.5 line, but given CIN's struggles in establishing the run, and how easy it is to attack that secondary, I'm sitting tight on 3 MNF player props for now.  I'll circle back when secondary plays come out.   With 10U on 3 plays, that's enough for now.

 

LONGSHOT TD

Nothing that stands out right away, would like to see the Fri-Sat injury reports before committing.

 

That's it for now, truthfully only 1-2 TD props have any interest, and only secondary player props are missing at this stage.    With a huge SUN card, I don't mind being a little light for the MNF doubleheader.   I'll update this one for MNF as it comes.  BOL!

2 player props I'm adding (2nd once it's out, not out yet): 

ADDED SEPT 23 - Brenton Strange O25.5 rec yds 2U FD (DK - 26.5), 40+ rec yds +200 1U DK @ BUF - he's got the Engram role, and short-area is what BUF allows.   

ADDED SEPT 23 - Noah Brown rec O15.5 rec yds 4U, 25+ rec yds +200 2U, 40+ rec yds +500 0.5U & 50+ rec yds 0.5U DK @ CIN - he's on the PS waiting to be activated (you can do it 3x), so no props are out but I'm definitely on him.   He's the actual WR2 behind Mclaurin, and they scheme him looks.  As long as the # is less than 30, I'm in.  EDIT - OMG 15.5 is so low.  Gulp gotta go with the rare 7U play   

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

ADDED SEPT 22 - Noah Brown +700 / +12000 2+ FD 0.8U/0.2U (now +600 / +10000 2+) @ CIN - same theme why I like the yards and alt lines.  I added this last night, but woke up and saw the lines are a little lower.

ADDED SEPT 22 - Drew Sample +1200 / +20000 2+ TheScore (+1000 FD) 0.4U / 0.1U vs. WAS - I'm going to wait until the 6-7 PM mark, as these odds often skyrocket.   Sample still gets 50+ percent of snaps and is their best inline blocker.   With Tee Higgins back, it's only worth a half-stake play.   Tanner Hudson is out, so the TE room is easier to predict. 

 

Edited by Broncofan
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Wow Noah Brown props are so low at O15.5 rec yds   His snap share is only going to increase as he gets familiar with O.   
 

ADDED SEPT 23 - Noah Brown iO15.5 rec yds 4U / 25+ +200 2U / 40+ +500 0.5U / 50+ +900 0.5U DK @ CIN - Gotta take the YOLO 7U chance

Edited by Broncofan
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7 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Wow Noah Brown props are so low at O15.5 rec yds   His snap share is only going to increase as he gets familiar with O.   
 

ADDED SEPT 23 - Noah Brown iO15.5 rec yds 4U / 25+ +300 2U / 40+ +500 0.5U / 50+ +850 0.5U DK @ CIN - Gotta take the YOLO 7U chance

Nice grab. Noah Brown kills Cincinnati every time for some reason, too.

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5 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Nice grab. Noah Brown kills Cincinnati every time for some reason, too.

And Mclaurin gets the attention from the D.  NGL it’s scary but have to leverage when books are way out of line.   This is one of the rare cases.  

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