Weekly Bets Thread

[thebestever6]

Noah brown one yard away from a td.

[Broncofan]

17 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

Noah brown one yard away from a td.

Noah Gray +850, open for TD but Mahomes late and floats it - picked by Justin Simmons

Simi Fehoko +2200, open for TD but Herbert sails it high.

Theo Johnson (might be the worst) - open for 3 yard TD with no one within 5 yards....and Danny Jones sails it high

And then tonight, Noah Brown.

NGL, the player props I feel are starting to come around and have some value that's easy to ID - but the way TD volume is down 30-40%, it's siphoning any potential value away.     Will have to scale back, if not hold off on the TD market, if this doesn't turn around.  

Still a good MNF, 3-2 on player props, and all 3 hit alt lines and Noah Brown hitting alt lines with double stake, nice night to help even up WK3 (or at least close).   Going to have to really rethink stakes with TD's, though.  

Edited Tuesday at 07:31 PM by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

WEEK 3 RECAP

ATS/ML - 2-4, -2U - LAC ML taken before we knew Justin Herbert was affected, then they lost both T's and Herbert. CHI ML snakebitten by TO's on O side (that OL can't block, and Caleb Williams is getting killed as a result, and making rookie mistakes). BUF - JAX U46.5 killed by JAX D unable to stop BUF at all lol. NO -2.5 I don't really regret, crazy outcome. DET -2.5 and SEA -4.5 pretty clear calls.

PLAYER PROPS - 12-12, +6.8U - TNF was brutal, going 0-3, and out of the SUN/MON 9 misses, 6 of them weren't even close (Pollard, Jeudy, Shaheed <did drop a 40+ yd TD>, Zay Flowers (BAL ran it 45x out of 60 lol), McBride <injury, can't predict that> & Brian-Robinson) weren't even close. Still, the hits had a ton of ppl hit the alt lines (Noah Brown 7U play really paid off), and starting off -10.5U on TNF, I'll take the +6.4U profit

LONGSHOT TD - 0-13, -8.5U - Unbelievably bad luck hits again - Simi Fehoko at +2200 open for TD, Herbert misses high, Theo Johnson wide open for a 3-yard simple TD, and Danny Jones overthrows him with no one around by 5 yards, Noah Gray open for a TD but Mahomes floats it, allowing ATL S to pick it off last-second, and tonight Noah Brown catches it with body in EZ, but coming back, can't fall back, tackled at half-yard line. Oh well, way it goes.

So again it's a -3.7U WK3 - MNF helped ease the pain with a +7U net day....just wish Brown scored (and he was the iso before on the TO when they then switched to Mclaurin for the last TD on the CIN LCB...oh well, no guarantees).

 

ATS/ML - 7-10, -3U (WK 3 - 2-4, -2U)

PLAYER PROPS - 27-29, -20.8U (WK 3 - 12-12, +6.8U) 

LONGSHOT TD - 1-31, -15.U (WK 3 - 0-11, -8.5U; WK 1 - Jordan Mason +850) 

 

SUMMARY - -38.9U  stake (WK 1 - -31U <OUCH> WK 2 - -4.1U, WK3 - -3.7U), 178U stake

Edited Tuesday at 10:54 AM by Broncofan

[iknowcool]

Cowboys/Giants O43.5 is enticing.  Giants offense isn't very good, but the Cowboys defense is terrible.  And even if the Giants aren't productive on O, the Cowboys are capable of scoring 30+ points.  Each Cowboys game thus far has hit at least 50.  But it is a short week.

[Broncofan]

5 hours ago, iknowcool said:

Cowboys/Giants O43.5 is enticing.  Giants offense isn't very good, but the Cowboys defense is terrible.  And even if the Giants aren't productive on O, the Cowboys are capable of scoring 30+ points.  Each Cowboys game thus far has hit at least 50.  But it is a short week.

NGL what worries me about DAL is that their non-existent run game, combined with Lamb being the only WR the D needs to worry about, makes them so easy to defend.    At least Jake Ferguson is back.    NYG is generating a TON of pressure with Dexter Lawrence inside, and Brian Burns & Ojulari on the edges.   But I will say that Dak normally thrives vs. the blitz.   I'm really tempted on Dak rush yds, Lamb (even at 77.5) rec yds & Ferguson at 43.5 rec yds.   

It's tough to take Singletary rush yds, because that OL still isn't great at run blocking (they've been doing a better job of pass pro).    Singletary's last run got him past 60+....still, DAL's run D is awful.    

Edited Tuesday at 11:31 AM by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

WEEK 4 TNF

ATS/ML

I'm leaning on the G-men, but given how much DAL's fanbase often drives betting, I'm willing to wait to see if the line moves in NYG's favor.  It will also give me more time to see if I really want to lay $ on Danny Jones over Dak Prescott lol.  I may in fact just go with @iknowcool's over play, and not have to worry about the W/spread (because backing Danny Jones has backfired on many bettors too many times lol).

 

PLAYER PROPS

Dak Prescott O7.5 rush yds 2U, 25+ rush yds +550 0.5U DK @ NYG - NYG is 2nd in the league with 14 sacks.   Shane Bowen is aggressive, with a high blitz rate.   With a non-existent run game, I have to believe that Dak will use his legs here.   It might only take 1 run to get to 1st line, and only 3-4 to get to that crazy alt line.

Ceedee Lamb O77.5 rec yds 2U, 100+ rec yds +200 1U DK @ NYG - there's just no one that can cover Ceedee.   After an off game, I expect him to bounce back, especially with the NYG secondary.   

Jake Ferguson O42.5 rec yds 2U FD (DK - 43.5), 60+ rec yds +220 1U DK, 80+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ NYG - Ferguson's seam buster and safety valve figures to be heavily used with a struggling run game and NYG's pressure.    I like that DAL basically concentrates its work with Lamb & Ferguson so it's easy to take the full alts at those #'s. 

Malik Nabers O72.5 rec yds 2U, 91+ rec yds +200 1U DK vs. DAL - while I'm not crazy about receiving lines once we're in the 70's, Nabers is such a target / air-yards hog, I have to go here.  

I will almost certainly add Devin Singletary, the Q is whether it's run or receiving props.    NYG's OL hasn't done enough in the run game to fully trust them (Singletary got to 60+ but only with a game-ending 30+ yard run), but DAL is so bad at stopping the run, it may be the play.   For now, will let it go & see. 

 

LONGSHOT TD

Dak Prescott +500 / +6000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD @ NYG - he's at +320 at DK, so I don't see Dak's TD line rising significantly.    The RPO and scramble potential for a TD goes way up with NYG's blitz and coverage issues, I have to take the shot here.  Definitely prefer this to taking a backup RB. 

 

Theo Johnson +700 / +11000 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U FD vs. DAL - his volume overall is low, which is why I can't take his yardage props, but the G-men have already tried to look his way last week for a TD, and he was wide open.   As the #1 TE who gets almost all the RZ snaps, I have to take the full-stake play at these #'s.

 

With 12U in 4 player props and 2U on Dak / Theo Johnson, that's enough for now.   We'll see about the ATS/ML and Singletary props later on, but that's enough for now.

Edited Tuesday at 11:35 AM by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Man FD already dropped Dak TD to +390 / +4100.  Crazy. 

[Broncofan]

Ok so lines are out and I had a chance to see all the 60 min recaps for the games I wasn’t watching 4-screen lol.   So here goes….

 

WEEK 4 ATS/ML

EARLY

MIN @ GB +115 - DC Flores kills Shanny tree O’s; balanced O hurts GB vulnerability to run.  No longer just the aerial Jefferson show.  

TAM +120 vs. PHI (wait until Friday injury report out) - as long as Vea back, PHI missing everyone.   Vea out can’t take TAM as run D vulnerable.   They were missing Vea & DL Chancey vs. DEN.   Couldn’t stop run & couldn’t pressure QB.  If they get Vea back makes a massive diff with phi having no WR.   But gotta wait on final injury reports Friday. 

NO +110 @ ATL - ATL lost their C & RT and it killed their run game.   Against NO that’s a massive problem.    

PIT -130 @ IND - PIT D and run game such a mad mismatch.   Chi beats Indy with a run game - Fields in pit is functional.

CAR +170 vs. CIN - take the over if you cant stomach the ML.    Cin D can’t stop the run or pass, unless it’s against KC (weird lol).  Car OL playing well.   If WAS decides to double Chase all game they’d have limited Cin O more.   I’ll go with home dog here.

LATE

CLE pick ‘em @ LV -  with a hurting Crosby that’s literally their entire pass rush.   If they don’t pressure Watson they can’t defend.   CLE D is still legit.

 

I’ll wait for Friday on TAM; I played the others for 1U each, for a 5U stake (+/- TAM).   As always I got a free play 0.2U so I’ll play those 6 plus DET ML for a +14000 7-leg 0.2U YOLO parley.  

Edited Tuesday at 05:37 PM by Broncofan

[iknowcool]

I really like the Patriots to cover this week (currently +10.5), but also tempted to take the Pats ML+420.  49ers are banged up, Pats can run and stop the run and have had more days to rest than the 49ers.  49ers are still the better team and are at home so spread may still be the best play, but this season has been wonky.  

Edited Tuesday at 04:59 PM by iknowcool

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Backing the Bengals on that Bet n Get promo feels like a bad idea in hindsight….

[Broncofan]

@thebestever6 @N4L @SmittyBacall @BStanRamFan @iknowcool @JaguarCrazy2832

@El Ramster

Two bets if you have FD:

Roschon Johnson +320 / +3100 1.2U / 0.3U vs. LAR (he's like +190 or lower everywhere else) - even on a terrible OL you can't get +300 on a starting RB who gets run and pass work.

D'Andre Swift U43.5 yds -130, or U35.5 +130 2U - I took the latter. 

 

 

Get it now.

Edited Wednesday at 05:31 PM by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

45 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

@thebestever6 @N4L @SmittyBacall @BStanRamFan @iknowcool @JaguarCrazy2832

@El Ramster

Two bets if you have FD:

Roschon Johnson +320 / +3100 1.2U / 0.3U vs. LAR (he's like +190 or lower everywhere else) - even on a terrible OL you can't get +300 on a starting RB who gets run and pass work.

D'Andre Swift U43.5 yds -130, or U35.5 +130 2U - I took the latter. 

 

 

Get it now.

damn down to +200 already 

[Broncofan]

13 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

damn down to +200 already 

It's not great, not bad at that rate, but on a bad OL it's not like it's crazy value.  I'd give his odds at +150 if he plays 65-70 percent of snaps.   Remember Khalil Herbert isn't going away.

The U on Swift's numbers, esp if you can get even money or -110 on 40's, is a gift though.

[thebestever6]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

It's not great, not bad at that rate, but on a bad OL it's not like it's crazy value.  I'd give his odds at +150 if he plays 65-70 percent of snaps.   Remember Khalil Herbert isn't going away.

The U on Swift's numbers, esp if you can get even money or -110 on 40's, is a gift though.

I can't find his rush props anywhere but bet365 41.5 -110 locking that in.

I locked in johnson +250 on betmgm and 2tds +2000 on bet365 thankyou!

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Darn i loved the Swift U43.5 this morning but was waiting until other books dropped since 4-5 of mine have nothing but now the Roschon news broke and its already down to 40.5