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Weekly Bets Thread


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I am on the under tonight

rams D is very good. Their best asset is their pass defense. They matchup pretty well in that regard against tampa. I dont expect tampa to do much on the ground either.

Rams offense is perfectly content with rushing the ball and chewing clock. Jared Goof is not good and their WRs are over rated so should be a slow, grind it out, field pos type of game

 

I am also taking the points (+4) for 25% of my under bet just a small hedge

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On 11/22/2020 at 2:37 PM, Cheesehawk said:

Just need Rivers to hit 264 yards and i hit on a nice 7 bet parlay

hell yeah! Good stuff. I love to see these kind of things

Now dont go blow it all on some stupid parlay lol

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1 hour ago, N4L said:

hell yeah! Good stuff. I love to see these kind of things

Now dont go blow it all on some stupid parlay lol

With how weird this season has been I've just been doing small dollar parlays primarily. It was a $3 bet to win $111. Thinking about putting something down on the Bucs ML tonight tho

Edited by Cheesehawk
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Forgot to post my Turkey day bets, was all over WAS +3 & WAS ML, hopefully many of you were too (and in case there are skeptics, in our DEN Forum pick 'em, I took WAS straight up lol).

For the weekend....

LAC +5 - the BUF D has more holes than I'd like to see vs. a LAC O.   I think the Chargers find a way to lose (yet again), but 5 points gives me so much coverage in what I believe is likely a 1-score game.   I can never take LAC ML, given how they find ways to lose but +5 I'm quite comfortable with.

LV -3 - this is entirely tied to 2 areas - Julio Jones hamstring, being a GTD, and the Raiders' balanced O being able to wear the improved ATL D down.   The thing is, if Julio can't play, and with a re-injury of his hammy last week, that seems highly likely, the underrated ATL D just wears down - that's exactly what happened vs. NO.   I think we see a repeat here.

MIA -7 - full credit to my Broncos, they came up with a great gameplan.    It then gives recency bias a boost here, as the MIA D, neutralized by DEN's very-good run-blocking OL, won't have as many difficulties vs. the Jets.   Darnold returning would make me more nervous, but then again, he's also going to be rusty.   On O, the fact they were willing to pull Tua for being ineffective gives me reassurance that should he struggle, Fitzmagic is ready.   Before last week, this would have been a 11-12 point spread.   I'll take the critical 7 pt barrier before the weekend.

SEA -5 - I know PHI's season is on the line - but SEA's D is suddenly a lot better with Jamal Adams back, and help to the front 4.  Their LB's and CB's still struggle mightily - but they get sacks and are starting to get TO's, and that's Wentz's weakness.   When you add in Russ Wilson & co. vs. a D that wears out more than in the past - well, I have to go with SEA here.

 

I'd like to find a 2nd dog to pair with the 4 picks, but WAS was a good one yesterday, so I'm comfortable with the 4 above.   


Player-prop wise, several receiving props already pop up:

-DJ Moore over 60.5 vs. MIN

-Michael Pittman over 51.5 vs. TEN

-Andy Isabella ?? vs. NE, with Fitz out

I mean, Cole Beasley has an O/U of 61.5 vs. LAC (don't get me wrong, I like his spot this week too), and I think Pittman/Moore's ceiling are way above his.   Isabella's totals I imagine are going to be super-low, given his prior output.    Isabella TD props should be worth looking at as well.   

Edited by Broncofan
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