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Weekly Bets Thread


BStanRamFan

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15 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Agree with Taylor & would add Drake over 60.5 & J-Robinson over 64.5 rush props.   Edmonds limited to out in ARI and J-Rob the only game in town in Jax  

Receiving wise Ayiuk over 72.5, Kupp over 61.5 and  Irv Smith over 24.5 (no Rudolph and CHI easiest to target TE over WR) all strong players I’m on.  
 

From my early spread plays - still on TAM -6, IND -7 (teased 0.5), KC -2.5 and SF -2.5 (last 2 large).    NE +2.5 now +1 so no longer there.   Nervous there with the skill guys playing,  

 

 

BOL! 

Ah well, with BUF -6 & LAC +3, KC -2.5 (barely lol), IND -7 push, and TAM -6 (man that last 3rd down spot - oh well) & SF -2.5 (the big whiff) - so 3-2 and 1 push.   

Player props were Taylor & Irv Smith & Ayiuk (barely) hits, with Kupp / Drake / J-Rob all misses - 3-3. 

Can't really complain, the TAM spread L was annoying, but the Ayiuk cover was equally fortunate.   

The only prop I'm on immediately for tomorrow - rebound game for Diontae Johnson at 61.5 yards.   Then it's on the holiday weekend!

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We are getting to the time of the year when I would urge people to use caution when using the "team X needs to win and team Y has nothing to play for" narrative to decide who to bet on

There are teams every year that should win, as they are the better team with more to play for, but every year those teams seem to lose outright as big favorites. 

Prime example last year was NE @ MIA week 17. NE wins they have the 2 seed and a bye. Miami probably should just lose to get a QB. Miami showed up ready to play and NE instead had to go play TEN instead 

So you can use it as a piece of the puzzle, but styles make fights, and there needs to be more behind the picks than just supposed "motivation" 

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Crushed the teasers this week. SEA -0.5 U50, CLE PK U50, MIA +5 U49, BUF PK GB -2.5.

Fairly easy money all around. Going for it again tomorrow with PIT -8 U46. Can’t see Finley  scoring more than 13 and Steelers O has struggled, but not to the point where I’m worried about 8 points. 

Also hit a few player props (which I typically avoid). Jeff Wilson TD (+300), Terry McLaurin O5.5 receptions (-115), and parlayed Reagor O2.5 receptions + Dan Arnold O1.5 receptions and 17 yards (+550). Missed on some others like Gus Edwards TD and Amari Cooper O4.5 receptions. Also putting small money on prop parlay of Gio Bernard O2.5 receptions + Ebron O4.5 receptions tomorrow for fun. 

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12 hours ago, N4L said:

We are getting to the time of the year when I would urge people to use caution when using the "team X needs to win and team Y has nothing to play for" narrative to decide who to bet on

There are teams every year that should win, as they are the better team with more to play for, but every year those teams seem to lose outright as big favorites. 

Prime example last year was NE @ MIA week 17. NE wins they have the 2 seed and a bye. Miami probably should just lose to get a QB. Miami showed up ready to play and NE instead had to go play TEN instead 

So you can use it as a piece of the puzzle, but styles make fights, and there needs to be more behind the picks than just supposed "motivation" 

I do think the above can affect player props.   Especially since the bet counts so long as players play 1 snap. 
 

Specific example - GB plays TEN next week.   Because it’s an AFC game it won’t affect the tiebreaker, and GB wins tiebreaker with SEA simply if they beat CHI.   They win any tiebreaker with NO.   The only risk is a 3-way tie.   GB will know what SEA / NO have done.    I don’t think it affects the game directly - but I get nervous as to how much work Aaron Jones gets.   To keep him fresh for the CHI game & playoffs.    
 

Game outcome I’d avoid narratives.  But player props on contenders who can manage workload - I do think it merits consideration.  
 

  

Edited by Broncofan
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55 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

Anything worth betting tonight? -15 is a tall task for an underwhelming Steelers team IMO

probably not, honestly. I would suggest passing

I cant take the under in a total so low with cincy's defense, also given the fact their offense will undoubtedly have some turnovers and the steelers potentially get a defensive score. I wish there was a way to bet cincy not to score at all for like +300 or something

I show it at -14, which I honestly don't hate, but the steelers offense hasnt played well enough for me to think they win by 17 or whatever it would take to actually have that bet cash. I could easily see a situation where the Steelers sit on the ball a lot in the second half and maybe the bungles kick a FG to make it 21-10 or something like that. Steelers will probably try and get the run game going as well, which wouldnt help this bet. 

I did a three team teaser on the under 46 tonight, the rams +9, and the bills -1. I like the rams and bills to win this week, and if I dont hit the under 46 tonight, no sweat, I can play these games later. If it does, then I am in a good position with the rams in a good matchup with 9 points to play with, and the bills just needing to win against a bad team. I usually dont do parlays with games on different days, because the math doesnt line up as far as the payouts go (you are better off just not including the last game and then playing it straight), but this is a teaser so that wasnt an option. 

I do think its a possible let down spot for the bills considering they have the division wrapped up and the seeding doesnt matter as much this year, but NE being eliminated is something we havent seen, and with gillmore out, even if diggs doesnt play, I dont think NE has the firepower to beat the bills. I saw something that BB may start Stidham, which would make a lot of sense considering Cam is a FA and may not be back. 

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16 minutes ago, N4L said:

probably not, honestly. I would suggest passing

I cant take the under in a total so low with cincy's defense, also given the fact their offense will undoubtedly have some turnovers and the steelers potentially get a defensive score. I wish there was a way to bet cincy not to score at all for like +300 or something

I show it at -14, which I honestly don't hate, but the steelers offense hasnt played well enough for me to think they win by 17 or whatever it would take to actually have that bet cash. I could easily see a situation where the Steelers sit on the ball a lot in the second half and maybe the bungles kick a FG to make it 21-10 or something like that. Steelers will probably try and get the run game going as well, which wouldnt help this bet. 

I did a three team teaser on the under 46 tonight, the rams +9, and the bills -1. I like the rams and bills to win this week, and if I dont hit the under 46 tonight, no sweat, I can play these games later. If it does, then I am in a good position with the rams in a good matchup with 9 points to play with, and the bills just needing to win against a bad team. I usually dont do parlays with games on different days, because the math doesnt line up as far as the payouts go (you are better off just not including the last game and then playing it straight), but this is a teaser so that wasnt an option. 

I do think its a possible let down spot for the bills considering they have the division wrapped up and the seeding doesnt matter as much this year, but NE being eliminated is something we havent seen, and with gillmore out, even if diggs doesnt play, I dont think NE has the firepower to beat the bills. I saw something that BB may start Stidham, which would make a lot of sense considering Cam is a FA and may not be back. 

I did a contest on monkey knife fight Ben over 278.5 passing yards and Finley over 175.5 pass yards. $50 to win $125

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25 minutes ago, SimonGruber said:

Juju over 5.5 catches and anytime chase Claypool td just feels he’s due for a td not much analysis on that one lol

I took the juju catches 

I have under 27.5 rushing yards for gio 

I am contemplating over 2 catches for Washington. Seems very low for a guy who played 80% of the snaps and got 6 targets last week. Ben looks for him 

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