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Weekly Bets Thread


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On 12/20/2020 at 11:21 AM, Rainmaker90 said:

Huge win on Buff yesterday brings me to a god spot today . 
 

I have a 3 team teaser going: Buff, Indy and Sea basically to win the game . 
 

I have Seattle at 6.5 for a unit 

and KC-3 extra extra extra large 

Seattle let... Dwayne Haskins score 15 4th quarter points to lose that bet. I wish they woulda lost the F'N game.

Teaser came through.

KC- ... WTF. DeMarcus Robinson is an idiot. NO's D played a ton better than expected, but it was a push so Im not too salty.

 

Early lines: Miami 2.5 at LV. Breaks my coast-coast travel rule but that Raiders team is done. If Tua doesn't turn the ball over, Miami should win by at least a FG. 

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So some early line thoughts:

Strong leans:

MIA -2.5 -  I agree with @Rainmaker90 that MIA is worth breaking the WC travel rule.   I will say that Mariota will present a different skill set - but if there's any team that should know how to defend it, it's MIA.    Add in the fact that Parker/Gaskin would be better bets to play vs. that horrible LV D, it's hard to pass up staying under the critical 3 threshold (OK with 3, but obv gets dicey past that).

IND -1.5 - this is always a scary prop with Rivers as the QB.  But man, Big Ben's O is in serious trouble with him regressing like Peyton 2015.  Add in a D that's starting to become vulnerable to the run game with their LB's out, and this is one I'll take the Colts, and pray Rivers doesn't channel his Rivers-classic form.

JAX +7.5 - I know, I know - they got obliterated by BAL.     And I know, the org has all the reasons to want to lose.   But players & coaches don't - and realize that CHI's success with Trubisky of late has come about because they've faced HOU/MIN/TEN - and they've been able to establish David Montgomery and the run game.   The one thing JAX does really well on D - play the run.    Chubb & Henry have found success - but MIN/Cook, GB/Jones, and even BAL's run game - didn't find success.    If you limit CHI's run game, Trubisky's weaknesses appear.    Since this is above the 7 pt threshold, I'll go with JAX here.   Frankly, the way 2020 has gone, the unexpected upset wouldn't surprise me, but I'll lay $ on the dog points rather than go nuts on the ML lol.

LAR +3 - yeah, that NYJ L is a killer.   And Akers has already been ruled out, which really stinks.   But again, I'm going to the matchup - and LAR is a terrible matchup with SEA.  They have the pass D and pass coverage - and it was missed, but DK Metcalf tweaked  wheel hard this past week.   Then you add Pete Carroll's propensity to keep games close - I actually have LAR winning, but again, getting the points is a bonus IMO.

TEN +3.5 - the principle here is simple - TEN's run game matches up with GB's biggest weakness, their run D.   Meanwhile, the GB pass D is a monster vs. TEN's leaky secondary - but the GB OL isn't playing so well.   Plus, yet again TEN is put in a dog position.   They are terrible as favorites - but they are outstanding dogs.    If it gets to 3 or less, I understand why ppl will lean GB, but I'm going with the 2019 script redux - and TEN keeping this to a 3 pt game, with a 40 percent chance of winning outright.    Going with the 2020 trend of barking dogs with one of the best underdog plays the past 2 years.

 

Moderate:


ARI - 5 - SF just lost Mullens, and now Mostert.   I was all over ARI -3, just kinda wish the line hadn't moved so quickly.  Still, I think this is a 7-10 pt win, so I have to go with ARI.   It looks like Kyler is finally starting to run more, and the timeline is right for his shoulder to have healed.    That changes the O so much.   On the D side, CJ Beathard is yet another downgrade, and now having Jeff Wilson / McKinnon as the RB, major downgrade as well.   P-Pete should shadow Ayiuk, so that's a bad matchup all the way around.  

PHI -3 - I'd point out that DAL's improbable W over SF was due to winning the TO battle 3-0 early (and 4-0 overall), and then salted away by a KR onside return TD, so it's very misleading.   The one thing we're seeing with a Hurts led PHI O - it doesn't turn it over, and it's relying on the run game with Hurts & Sanders.   And what's DAL weak with?  Run game.     A huge disclaimer - if WAS beats CAR, I suppose PHI could have a letdown realizing they're eliminated.  I discount these letdown / nothing to play for narratives as @N4L alluded to - but watching your playoff chances go away just before gametime, that's a potential factor.  But otherwise, I'll go with PHI to win a game, and even moreso if WAS loses - because then they're still alive for a Week 17 showdown game with WFT.

 

As always....please play single bets, parleys are fine but don't live solely with them, 90+ percent single game plays FTW....BOL!

Edited by Broncofan
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@Broncofan and I are in lockstep again. love it

I like the colts because the steelers seem to be susceptible to the run now more than ever with their ILB issues. colts are a running team. Colts defense is very good. Bens arm is shot, his accuracy is horrible, I think his arm is worn out this late in the season and I dont know if that can change on a short week. They started to run the ball better but the colts are a very hard team to run against when they have their full DL.  

I reaaaalllly dont like the fact its outdoors though. The colts have played their last 5 games indoors, and its not a coincidence that they are on a 5 game winning streak imo. Its officially winter now and I really think Rivers outdoors could be a spot where he really struggles. Ive bet on them 3 weeks in a row against the texans, raiders, texans (W,W,P) and it kinda feels like they might be due for a bad game of sorts. I dont want to press too hard here. 

I think given the fact the steelers basically dont have a choice but to continue to work the ground game, and the fact the colts should have success running the ball, I do like the colts, but I actually like the under 45 a lot and will split the bet 50-50 on the colts and the under, hoping/expecting to win both. It kind of hedges against the risk of rivers being terrible outdoors, while also betting against pittsburgh to score as well. I also may look to the under rivers passing yardage depending on what it is as a hedge against the colts bet as well 

 

I already mentioned the Rams. I already took them +3 but now my book is showing +1. I knew it was going to move. Seattles offense is not good all of a sudden. Earlier, their offense was really good but they were on pace to be the worst passing defense in history by a large margin. Now? Their defense is actually pretty solid and their offense is putrid. Teams are getting to wilson.

Ramsey owns metcalf. DK actually got hurt 2 weeks ago I think but no one talked about it and is clearly not right after further injuries last week. Ramsey against a healthy DK is a matchup that I like, as DK puts so much pressure on defenses who dont have anyone who can cover him 1v1, but now that hes hurt, I really think seattle will struggle on offense. 

I am not going to over react to the rams falling into the trap game from last week. Remember, they played on thursday at home, then at home against a winless team, with the battle for the division up for grabs the following week. They got caught with their pants down last week, and I like the fact they got a little kick in the ***. McVay doesnt lose back to back games very often, I think its only happened once in his career so far, he is great on the bounce back games. I still like them at +1 but if you see a 3 out there, smash it now before it moves

 

I LOVE the over 47 in the browns and the jets. The browns defense is bad. Oh man is this defense bad. They are lucky to have played a worse offense last week, I think only allowing 3 points was a fluke with the 2 fourth down calls early. Getting ward back was big for them, but they really have a ton of issues there all over the place. Myles Garrett isnt the same player since he got covid, maybe he will improve this week but he is having some serious cardio issues, and he was the only thing keeping them afloat before. The jets offense has actually started to play better at times, they have all of their weapons back. 

Quite frankly, I think the jets players are pretty ticked off at how mad everyone is about them not getting trevor lawrence. I think darnold especially is feeling the heat from it, he has never been challenged in this way before with basically everyone openly talking about replacing him. I dont think this will be a huge let down for them, they are happy they got the win, definitely, but at the same time, they have the taste for victory now, they can relax a little bit and play loose, and get to work to try and go win another game without the 'go 0-16 for TL' hanging over their heads. They will see the browns offense on the other side and know they need to score points, and score points through the air. They do have some pretty decent weapons, especially at WR, and the browns secondary is very thin. 

Browns offense is on fire right now, I like them to put up 30 points basically. The way to beat the jets is through the air, they have a pretty stout DL actually. I think baker will keep cooking. I am not overly concerned about the browns just running the ball a bunch to kill the clock, although it is a concern to some degree if the jets dont hold up their end of the bargain. Just seems like a low number for two bad defenses, especially when the browns offense has been playing as well as it has. 

 

I LOVE the bills -7. I am not worried about a let down game from this team on MNF. The pats have kicked their *** for a very long time so I think the bills will want to plant their flag. Gilmore is out, that is huge, I assume that diggs will play but either way, the pats defense is going to have their hands full with allen and his ability to extend plays/rush.

We have never seen the pats be eliminated this early. There is rumors about BB playing stidham. BB probably knows its better to lose at this point. Cam isnt under contract next year and looks like **** anyways. I feel like either way the bills defense isnt going to let the pats offense score enough points to cover this number. Its honestly not that big of a number. This should be 10+ points imo. Lets not over think this and fall into the trap of "bills have nothing to play for" if the bills have nothing to play for, then wtf do the pats have to play for??? 

 

I really like the over 56 in GB/TEN and also TEN +3.5. Packers defense has played better recently but I still think they are soft. Titans are a team that punches you in the mouth, but also can beat you down field. That is a hard combination to stop. Henry should feast and their passing game should have big plays. They will get in the endzone. 

Tennessee's defense is so bad. Just terrible lol the packers are going to score points, and I dont think they will sit on the ball and be complacent like they did last week. TENN can be beaten down the field and adams should just have an absolute monster game. 

I told myself I would never play another packers over again after last week LOL mainly because GB is the slowest team in the league between snaps, which I think is rodgers trying to protect his defense, but Tennessee is one of the fastest teams, and I really think this game will be a shootout where both teams know they need to score and continue to score. It is a high number, but I expect a lot of long touchdowns. I think the titans win outright and will definitely have a little something on the ML, but I will 100% take a FG to play with here

 

I do like miami -2 but I dont love it. This is mainly a play against mariota and against the raiders defense. maybe marcus can prove me wrong, but I am not going to put too much stock into a game where he played against the chargers defense when they didnt have time to prepare for him. Maimi will be ready for him. Marcus was so so so bad in TEN with seeing the field and reading coverages. Flores is obviously tremendous at gameplan specific coverages like NE has been for so many years. Miamis corners should have no problem covering the raiders WRs 1v1, which will allow them to dedicate more to stopping mariota and the rest of the raiders rushing attack. 

I dont like the fact its a short week for miami and an extra long week for the raiders. That is a big part of the hesitation for me. The raiders could easily come out and run the ball with a lot of success with jacobs with extra rest (dude is always beat up), but ultimately I think the raiders defense is just so so so bad that I trust Tua to make enough plays to win and keep them in the playoffs, even if they dont get back all of their offensive skill pos players.

If this wasnt in its own time slot, I might just stay away on focus on the other games above, but I do see some value here, so I am locking it in. 

 

TLDR

colts/colts under

over CLE

bills

miami

titans/titans over

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1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

yeah - and you're both wrong about the Packers -  Titans game ! 

Cheers and thanks for the write-ups, high quality work from both of you

Well I hope its an exciting game to watch on Sunday night! Should be a lot of action.

I will be interested to see the packers pace of play, because according to this ( Situational Pace of Play (OFF) (sharpfootballstats.com) ) the packers are dead last in pace. Their average pace is about 30.7s per snap (32nd). When they are tied their time between plays is 32s (tied for 32nd with baltimore). Their pace when losing is 28.8s between plays (31st slowest). Pretty crazy that they snap the ball with less than 10s on the playclock, on average, even when losing (basically)

I just cant help but feel like the titans will force the packers to go a little faster. That should lead to a fun game for NFL fans. 

Good luck to you and yours, and happy holidays my friend!

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2 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

yeah - and you're both wrong about the Packers -  Titans game ! 

Cheers and thanks for the write-ups, high quality work from both of you

LOL taking the points with Titans really is hard to argue.   I think they're something like 4-1 ATS as a dog this year (and a dismal 3-6 as a favorite), and this trend was similar in 2019.   They're built to keep games close, which I think explains why they thrive as dogs and struggles as favorites.  I wouldn't feel good about taking less than 3 points, though - a 3-pt GB win makes your Forum and TEN backers both happy, win-win.  

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2 minutes ago, N4L said:

Pretty crazy that they snap the ball with less than 10s on the playclock, on average, even when losing (basically)

That's tied to AR wanting time to survey the defense, run through his cadence ( get defense to declare who's rushing) and trying to get the defense to jump offsides. Also,  protecting the Packers defense with TOP as you noted.
Few QBs make better use of the time between snaps than Rodgers, but as with all things - sometimes too much of it can be an issue

As far as GB taking their foot off the pedal last week, I don't think they did. They just couldn't execute. Abysmal 2nd half
We'll see if they get that cleaned up and we're also hoping to get starting Center, Corey Linsley back because that improves all 3 spots on the IOL.
Should be a great SNF game and I suspect that Vrable has a few interesting twists up his sleeves to go along with his punch- you- in- the- face offense

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15 minutes ago, N4L said:

Well I hope its an exciting game to watch on Sunday night! Should be a lot of action.

I will be interested to see the packers pace of play, because according to this ( Situational Pace of Play (OFF) (sharpfootballstats.com) ) the packers are dead last in pace. Their average pace is about 30.7s per snap (32nd). When they are tied their time between plays is 32s (tied for 32nd with baltimore). Their pace when losing is 28.8s between plays (31st slowest). Pretty crazy that they snap the ball with less than 10s on the playclock, on average, even when losing (basically)

I just cant help but feel like the titans will force the packers to go a little faster. That should lead to a fun game for NFL fans. 

Good luck to you and yours, and happy holidays my friend!

One caution - the Titans pace of play is partly due to their ability to get chunk plays.   Now, GB is very vulnerable to this - but I don't know that I want to project this as TEN's model.   When AJ Brown or Derrick Henry house a 60+ yard TD, it tends to influence the POP stats.      I think they'll be very happy to try and wear out GB's D, and shorten the game vs. A-Rod.

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1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

One caution - the Titans pace of play is partly due to their ability to get chunk plays.   Now, GB is very vulnerable to this - but I don't know that I want to project this as TEN's model.   When AJ Brown or Derrick Henry house a 60+ yard TD, it tends to influence the POP stats.      I think they'll be very happy to try and wear out GB's D, and shorten the game vs. A-Rod.

I don't think that metric takes into account yardage or anything like that. The way I am reading it, that is the time between snaps (how long they huddle, line up etc before the snap of the ball) 

That website is great, I am sure there are football people out there who are plugged into metrics out there who would love to play around with some of it. @Forge @y2lamanaki

www.sharpfootballstats.com 

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1 minute ago, N4L said:

I don't think that metric takes into account yardage or anything like that. The way I am reading it, that is the time between snaps (how long they huddle, line up etc before the snap of the ball) 

That website is great, I am sure there are football people out there who are plugged into metrics out there who would love to play around with some of it. @Forge @y2lamanaki

www.sharpfootballstats.com 

Ah, if it's time between snaps, then that's legit - I thought it was linked to ToP, which is misleading when you have so many big play TD's on that team.   Love Sharp's work, but only so many things to follow lol.

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12 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

LOL taking the points with Titans really is hard to argue.

Fair enough and I'm certainly no handicapper -  but I did note that in 3 of their 4 losses, the Titans lost by more than a FG.
They average losing by 6.75 points and that includes the stinker they dropped to the Burrow Bengals, 31-20

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/oti/2020.htm

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1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

Fair enough and I'm certainly no handicapper -  but I did note that in 3 of their 4 losses, the Titans lost by more than a FG.
They average losing by 6.75 points and that includes the stinker they dropped to the Burrow Bengals, 31-20

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/oti/2020.htm

The crazy part - only 1 of those 3 they were the dog.    I pretty much avoid them as a favorite because they lose or don’t cover a lot.   Once they are a dog though they have been one of the best plays the last 2 years.  

To be clear I think the spread accurately assesses the chances of winning.  But TEN getting 3+ pts is a prop always worth considering given how they play.    

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