N4L Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said: Chicago -7.5 against JAX? Dude. Read the thread lol it's literally posted on the page you posted this Edited December 23, 2020 by N4L Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fray32 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 hours ago, N4L said: I don't think that metric takes into account yardage or anything like that. The way I am reading it, that is the time between snaps (how long they huddle, line up etc before the snap of the ball) That website is great, I am sure there are football people out there who are plugged into metrics out there who would love to play around with some of it. @Forge @y2lamanaki www.sharpfootballstats.com This is nerdy as fuark. Thank you for sharing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbadbuff Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, N4L said: Dude. Read the thread lol it's literally posted on the page you posted this Lmaoo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoekd0250 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Parlay Packers (-3) Steelers (ml) Dallas (ml) Bears (-7.5) All bets against the money. And with vegas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 On 12/22/2020 at 1:41 PM, Broncofan said: MIA -2.5 - I agree with @Rainmaker90 that MIA is worth breaking the WC travel rule. I will say that Mariota will present a different skill set - but if there's any team that should know how to defend it, it's MIA. Add in the fact that Parker/Gaskin would be better bets to play vs. that horrible LV D, it's hard to pass up staying under the critical 3 threshold (OK with 3, but obv gets dicey past that). Now that it looks like Carr, do you still like Miami? I am not sure what to do with this game now. Will probably lay off RE: Arizona/San Francisco game, with kittle back, I am looking to the over. Kittle and aiyuk plus our run game should be good for at least 20-25 points. I will be shocked if Arizona doesnt drop 30 on us. I was also eyeing Arizona ML, but now I am not so sure. Kittle changes our entire offense, but they did say he will be on a snap count Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 13 hours ago, N4L said: Now that it looks like Carr, do you still like Miami? I am not sure what to do with this game now. Will probably lay off RE: Arizona/San Francisco game, with kittle back, I am looking to the over. Kittle and aiyuk plus our run game should be good for at least 20-25 points. I will be shocked if Arizona doesnt drop 30 on us. I was also eyeing Arizona ML, but now I am not so sure. Kittle changes our entire offense, but they did say he will be on a snap count Yeah, with Carr back, that probably takes them off my card as well. Merry Xmas to everyone.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 I think you guys got the Raiders/Dolphins game backwards. Miami has does exceptionally well against pocket QB’s this year like Jimmy Garroppolo, Justin Herbert, and Jared Goff while struggling with more mobile QB’s like Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and Russell Wilson. If Carr plays, I think it’s a blowout for Miami. It’s the exact type of defense Carr struggles with. I take Miami -3 if Carr starts. If Mariota starts, the game becomes a total coin flip for me, and it’s a No Bet. Not enough tape on Mariota in Gruden’s scheme. That could be a bad thing for Miami, but it’s also a bad thing for betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Not betting any games but if I was going to bet, this is what I’d do: Vikings ML over Saints. Bit of a gamble instead of taking the +6, but I like the Vikings to win here, and winning that plus money is important. Tampa -10 over Lions. 49ers/Cardinals No Bet. Dolphins -3 if Carr starts. No Bet if Mariota starts. Explained this in the last post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 hour ago, BayRaider said: I think you guys got the Raiders/Dolphins game backwards. Carr is better than Mariota. We like Miami against a backup QB 29 minutes ago, BayRaider said: Not betting any games Let me stop you right there lol Vikings aren't beating the saints tonight. Saints have the advantage on both sides of the ball and they haven't forgotten who has eliminated them from the playoffs 2/3 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, BayRaider said: I think you guys got the Raiders/Dolphins game backwards. Miami has does exceptionally well against pocket QB’s this year like Jimmy Garroppolo, Justin Herbert, and Jared Goff while struggling with more mobile QB’s like Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and Russell Wilson. If Carr plays, I think it’s a blowout for Miami. It’s the exact type of defense Carr struggles with. I take Miami -3 if Carr starts. If Mariota starts, the game becomes a total coin flip for me, and it’s a No Bet. Not enough tape on Mariota in Gruden’s scheme. That could be a bad thing for Miami, but it’s also a bad thing for betting. Wilson, Allen, and to a lesser degree Murray - all can hurt MIA's D with their arms. What their mobility does is it gets the MIA D out of position. I don't see that happening with Mariota. He extended the game with his legs vs. LAC - but he's not a good passer. That's a big difference IMO. What I don't like about Carr in the game - he'll make the quick decisions. That's how you beat the good pass rush / blitz. I was of the belief Mariota would be good for at least 2 TO's against the MIA D. Carr does a lot of things that make ppl scratch their heads, but he's able to get rid of the ball quickly, and he's pretty TO-averse. That and the LV run game IMO makes this a tougher match for MIA now. I'm committed in 1 parley with MIA -2.5 regardless, and if you forced me to pick, I'd still go there - but I just see better opps this week for single-game bets. With a backup QB in there, -2.5 was a lock IMO. I'll always take the good D facing the backup QB now starting on Week 2 - the backup effect in Week 1 seldoms bears out the following week. LAC wasn't planning for a mobile QB with RPO potential - MIA would be. That IMO would have exposed Mariota's many weaknesses as a passer. Probably moot now, but that's the thinking. Edited December 25, 2020 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, N4L said: Carr is better than Mariota. We like Miami against a backup QB Let me stop you right there lol Vikings aren't beating the saints tonight. Saints have the advantage on both sides of the ball and they haven't forgotten who has eliminated them from the playoffs 2/3 years. If only things were this simple... Backup QB's steal everyones money almost every time lol. I almost always stay away from games that start backup QB's. Unless it's going to be multiple games, then anything after the first game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KhanYouDigIt Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 If anyone has cashapp I can send money to to place a bet for me they would be appreciated lol stupid credit union blocked international transactions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 13 minutes ago, Broncofan said: I'll always take the good D facing the backup QB now starting on Week 2 - the backup effect in Week 1 seldoms bears out the following week. LAC wasn't planning for a mobile QB with RPO potential - MIA would be. You basically nailed it. The first time a backup starts is a always a trap game. The other team never has enough tape, and many times the backup wins. And Vegas kills absolutely everyone. Then the backup QB will fade in Week 2, after the tape is revealed. As for Mariota, if he starts, there was only one half of tape on him in the Charger game. So it makes this thing tricky. If Mariota starts, I think the game is 50/50, and would be a No Bet for me, as I'd have zero confidence in either outcome. With Carr, -3 for Miami I'd be pretty confident. Carr blows against Top Pass Defenses, and especially against Top Corners like Howard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Props this week Give me the over 61.5 in aiyuks yards - with CJ beathard in at QB, I expect us to draw up a deep shot or two to aiyuk. CJ has a much better arm than Mullens did. I expect him to have a few 20+ yard catches. With kittle back, the defense won't be able to key on aiyuk as they would have previously. I also expect the niners to be losing /the cards to put up points, so I expect us to continue to draw up a lot of passing plays with aiyuks name on them Over 41.5 rushing yards for Kyler. This number is low because Kyler hasn't been running as much recently. He appears healthy again. Niners have problems with running QBs. He could have this on just a few plays. He ran for 91 against us week 1. I love how sacks don't count towards this number as well Over 6.5 Hopkins catches. I don't love it, but with Sherman out, we are starting ahkelo Witherspoon, who has fantastic coverage but has problems tracking the ball in the air. That's a horrible combination with Hopkins ball skills. It's very possible we have Jason verrett follow Hopkins, but if Kyler sees Witherspoon covering him, then Kyler will probably just chuck it up to him. If Jason verrett follows him, still a solid bet just because he's friggen DeAndre Hopkins lol Josh Jacobs over 67 rushing yards. Long week helps, Jacobs should be feeling good. The raiders will get him 20+ carries I think. That's a low total for such a good running back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Heres what I would do for a Saturday parlay if you are picking by point spreads Det (+9.5) - Tampa Bay can start games against bad teams really slow, and Detroit can play hard. I think that all those coqches being out will actually be a boon to the Detroit offense. I think the players will ball out Also, dont be surprised if Detroit scores with under a minute left to beat the spread but still lose, and give Tampa Bay betters a "bad beat". Winning by 10 is not gonna be easy for TB In this one Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 82% SF (+5) - I think SF is going to play loose in this one, whereas the stakes are higher for Arizona, who desperately needs to win. SF has a terrible QB, so they will look to slow down the game and keep it close with their defense. Keep it close. I think they will. Wouldnt surprise me if this game is decided by a FG. Percentage of money on Arizona: 75% Miami (-3) I think theres a good chance that the Raiders dont show up for this game. They are gonna move the ball against LVs terrible defense, and on the other side, their excellent corners will feast on Carr. Josh Jacobs is a little banged up too Percentage of money on Miami: 77% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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