Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

On 12/29/2020 at 1:48 AM, Broncofan said:

I think those are lines to take advantage, specifically the CLE / PIT game.

Here's the thing:

1.  PIT / BUF likely do want to play to win - not just because they value HFA for week 2 playoffs, but they're facing a division foe they can knock out.    Maybe it's not enough incentive for BUF - but in PIT/CLE's case, they really dislike each other (remember Myles Garrett - Mason Rudolph).    

2.  PIT's D is exactly the type of D that gives Baker fits - highest pressure % of all D's.   That's exactly what did Baker in (yes, he was missing his WR's, but the real killer was NYJ applying pressure - something he's just not used to).  It's what happened in the 1st game.

3.  PIT's O is so flawed - but the one thing CLE has trouble with are with multiple good WR's - they let Crowder kill them over & over, and PIT can throw 3 WR's that give CLE's secondary fits, and only 1 guy who can cover (Ward).  Next year, you upgrade the LB's and get Greedy Williams back, totally different story.   

4.  Finally, the one thing Big Ben still does - get rid of the ball early.   That negates the impact Garrett & Vernon bring (and Richardson inside).

Now, if CLE can keep it close, their run game can start to take over.  But we're talking giving PIT 7 points.    Holy ****, sign me up for that.  Making the BUF-MIA a pick-em game, a lot can go wrong for that bet to go south.   But asking PIT to keep it within 7?   Jeez, given how they match up, it's hard not to love that..a lot.

So, yes, PIT +7 right away is my foundation play for Week 17.

Other picks right away:

GB -5.5 -  Someone forgot to tell Vegas that GB hasn't clinched the 1 seed.  A loss and they pretty much are relegated to the 3 seed IMO (they lose a 3-way tie to NO/SEA, and lose a 2-way tie with SEA, only way they keep 1 seed is if they are tied only with NO).    They are just a horrible mismatch for CHI, we've seen it time and again.   I guess they're giving CHI some points because their playoffs are on the line - but a bye is on the line for GB, and playing at home all playoffs long.  I do not see how GB does anything but wins going away.   

NYG - DAL over 44.5 - I don't get this number at all.   Yes, I know NYG's O is struggling - but this is the DAL D.   Danny Jones is a flawed QB, but running QB's give DAL's D a hard time - they took advantage of Jalen Hurts' inexperience, but without that inexperience, PHI puts up at least 10+ more points, without the key mistakes Hurts made in DAL territory to kill drives repeatedly.   On the DAL O side, with no Bradberry, it's hard to see NYG's D limit DAL.    Anything under the 45 line, I"m all over.  I realize Dak was still playing (but got hurt in the 2Q) - but it was still a 37-34 game.    I think it's more likely a 27-24 game, so don't want the spread - instead, I'll stay on 45+ as my goal - I definitely rank this in my top 3 plays so far.   

HOU +7.5 - this is an easy call, simply a reflection of how bad the TEN D is.   I do think TEN finds a way to win - but as I've mentioned in the past, TEN is a horrible ATS favorite.  I believe they are 4-2 ATS as the dog (GB took it to them though lol) - and 3-6 as the ATS favorite.   And this is a trend we've seen in 2019 as well.  They are geared to win close games.   It's not a core top 3 play, but I still like the dog play when you get me past the critical 7-pt threshold.  1 major caveat - I want to see Watson, Cooks & David Johnson all good to go.   If all 3 aren't, then yes, it's an avoid.

SEA -4.5 - really don't like giving up more than 3 with Pete Carroll - but this is a game that means something to SEA, and man, SF is just decimated now - BOTH Deebo Samuel and Brandon Ayiuk will miss the game, and no Mostert.   SEA's D is finally starting to play well (especially their front 4 getting a pass rush and stuffing the run).    SF's D is underrated in its present form - but unlike ARI, SEA can bring balance with Carson back in the fold, and then the pass game (with Lockett/Metcalf recovering).    I do worry about Carroll's style causing SF to backdoor, but SF is just so talent-depleted on O, it may not matter.

TAM / ATL over 50.5 -  TAM's D has shown it's vulnerable to the pass, which is what ATL will be doing.  ATL's D has shown it's also vulnerable to the pass - which is what TAM will do all game long (unless Ronald Jones returns).   I do NOT think ATL will hold Brady & co. to 60 yards in the 1H - while I don't think they'll allow 350+ yards in the 2H, I think TAM puts up 28+, maybe even 31+ - which only requires ATL to put 20-23 points to take the over.    I don't trust TAM to cover anything more than 3 against ATL, been burned too many times, so I'd rather go with the over here.

As always, better to bet single-games first, parleys are < 10 percent of your stake, and don't forget about player props too - BOL!

 

On 12/29/2020 at 12:12 PM, Broncofan said:

Annnnnnnd PIT rests Big Ben...scratch PIT off the list lol.

 

11 hours ago, N4L said:

 

Tough week but the bills was a nice hit

unlucky with the browns WRs being close contacts on saturday. decided to let it ride because the total dropped from 47 to 41 and I didnt want to get middled 

Colts collapse hurt. Killed the under as well. The steelers picked a helluva time to wake up. Its been months since they had a halfway decent half on offense. 

Miami was a no bet with Carr playing, line didnt move, I hedged that one out before the game. Miami covers with mariota imo

Titans offense not being able to run on the packers has me rethinking their defense. I liked the over in that game because I know the titans defense is horrendous and expected their offense to score. I was using confirmation bias while watching green bays defense, they arent as soft as I thought they were. Their defensive front showed up to play. I will have to reevaluate them with a more open mind. 

These are all still bets I would make again, I really wish clevelands WRs werent so dumb. Landry would have made that game go over, no doubt in my mind. The total/side bets in the same game are supposed to be a bit of a hedge, meaning I feel really good about winning 1 of 2 at least, but neither played out that way last week. 

 

As for this week, I am not going to be shy after a bad week. I lost the titans over 56 last week, well, I am going to take the titans over 56 this week again and hope for a different result. Their defense is just so so so bad. They have no pass rush and their secondary is not good. Watson will create a lot of plays with his legs and hit WRs for chunk yardage. Houstons defense is very bad and I dont buy the narrative that JJwatt saying stuff publicly will do anything. These guys know there will be a new coach and that they only have a few more hours left of this awful season. Titans desperately need to win, and the houston rush defense is a bottom 5 unit. I expect both teams to score 30 points rather easily

Rams and the under 41 in that game. Murray is playing hurt, I watched his press conference, he was not happy and I read it as he would definitely sit if it wasnt win or go home. Their offense has been figured out imo. was painfully obvious to me. KK is not a good offensive coach in my eyes. when murray doesnt run, that offense doesnt work. Rams defense will be ready. Mcvay is good enough to figure it out, just like the niners did last week. Stick a fork in arizona, they are done. 

I will probably take a shot on the jets ML. This is just because its plus money and NE looks unbettable to me. The Jets are playing better and gase wants to be able to tell his future employer "tough year but we rallied and won 3 in a row when everyone thought we would be winless". BB knows its better to lose and I bet we see stidham again. 

 

I will be focusing on some player props. the lines arent posted yet, but here is what I am going to look at:

over justin jefferson yards, catches. They want this kid to win OROY and break whatever records he can. They are going to feed him against DET imo. They see diggs having a huge season, and want to pump up jefferson to make themselves feel better about it. He is going to get fed

Over henry rushing yards. I dont care what it is lol probably will be 120 or something, he might have 200 yards this weekend to get close to 2000 lol

latavious murray rushing yards - they may not want to wear out kamara this week and will give work to murray if they get a lead and they see GB is beating the bears. this yardage number should be like 40 something and I think he will break a few big ones to the edges of the carolina defense

over Dobbins rushing yards. I think dobbins is due for a 100 yard game 

Can't argue NYJ +3 at all....

TL:DR revised picks  with PIT developments, and up-to-date lines:

STRONG

GB -5.5

DAL / NYG over 44.5

HOU +7.5

MODERATE

NYJ +3

TAM/ATL over 50.5

BUF -3 (new) - no Fitzmagic comebacks and BUF wants the 2 seed doubt they rest guys unless game is in hand. 

REMOVED

PIT

SEA -6 (was -4.5) - line's moving up to a point I have a tough time endorsing, given how Pete Carroll allows teams to stay close.

 

PLAYER PROPS TO LOOK FOR (like Jefferson & Henry as well):

Taylor over rushing yards as long as it's 75 or less

Evans over receiving yards as long as it's 75 or less

Kittle over receiving yards as long as it's 65 or less

Gaskin over rushing yards as long as it's 65 or less

Cousins over pass yards as long as it's 270 or less

Jeudy receiving yards as long as it's 55 or less (figure they will pepper him in a "get-right" game vs. LV to end the year on a positive note given the abomination of drops he put up last week, to send the PR narrative in a positive direction for 2021).

 

 

Edited December 31, 2020 by Broncofan

[Rainmaker90]

Last week could have been awful. I got crushed losing on Mia snd AZ. 
 

I threw up a huge bet on a teaser that barely hit. KC,Sea and Balt. 
 

this week I am betting very large on Dallas. -1.5 against NY. They’ve been looking competent lately, D playing better. Think they score on NY. I got them by a TD

[Broncofan]

On 12/31/2020 at 12:59 PM, Broncofan said:

 

 

Can't argue NYJ +3 at all....

TL:DR revised picks  with PIT developments, and up-to-date lines:

STRONG

GB -5.5

DAL / NYG over 44.5

HOU +7.5

MODERATE

NYJ +3

TAM/ATL over 50.5

BUF -3 (new) - no Fitzmagic comebacks and BUF wants the 2 seed doubt they rest guys unless game is in hand. 

REMOVED

PIT

SEA -6 (was -4.5) - line's moving up to a point I have a tough time endorsing, given how Pete Carroll allows teams to stay close.

 

PLAYER PROPS TO LOOK FOR (like Jefferson & Henry as well):

Taylor over rushing yards as long as it's 75 or less

Evans over receiving yards as long as it's 75 or less

Kittle over receiving yards as long as it's 65 or less

Gaskin over rushing yards as long as it's 65 or less

Cousins over pass yards as long as it's 270 or less

Jeudy receiving yards as long as it's 55 or less (figure they will pepper him in a "get-right" game vs. LV to end the year on a positive note given the abomination of drops he put up last week, to send the PR narrative in a positive direction for 2021).

 

 

Chubb over 69.5 yards, Taylor is at 83.5 at opening, now 89.5.    Those 2 I'll take, but Taylor is riskier.

Have to remove BUF off the board with the Allen news (not playing whole game...sigh).

[El Ramster]

Bet bills.. these last 3-5 weeks. Brought me back like 1500 lol.. wow they’re a covering machine. 

[Rainmaker90]

6 hours ago, Rainmaker90 said:

Last week could have been awful. I got crushed losing on Mia snd AZ. 
 

I threw up a huge bet on a teaser that barely hit. KC,Sea and Balt. 
 

this week I am betting very large on Dallas. -1.5 against NY. They’ve been looking competent lately, D playing better. Think they score on NY. I got them by a TD

Clueless Mike McCarthey decides not to challenge an obvious non catch , giving NY free points. Shoulda been a 22-20 cover. 

[Broncofan]

On 12/31/2020 at 12:59 PM, Broncofan said:

 

 

Can't argue NYJ +3 at all....

TL:DR revised picks  with PIT developments, and up-to-date lines:

STRONG

GB -5.5

DAL / NYG over 44.5

HOU +7.5

MODERATE

NYJ +3

TAM/ATL over 50.5

BUF -3 (new) - no Fitzmagic comebacks and BUF wants the 2 seed doubt they rest guys unless game is in hand. 

REMOVED

PIT

SEA -6 (was -4.5) - line's moving up to a point I have a tough time endorsing, given how Pete Carroll allows teams to stay close.

 

PLAYER PROPS TO LOOK FOR (like Jefferson & Henry as well):

Taylor over rushing yards as long as it's 75 or less

Evans over receiving yards as long as it's 75 or less

Kittle over receiving yards as long as it's 65 or less

Gaskin over rushing yards as long as it's 65 or less

Cousins over pass yards as long as it's 270 or less

Jeudy receiving yards as long as it's 55 or less (figure they will pepper him in a "get-right" game vs. LV to end the year on a positive note given the abomination of drops he put up last week, to send the PR narrative in a positive direction for 2021).

 

 

 

9 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Chubb over 69.5 yards, Taylor is at 83.5 at opening, now 89.5.    Those 2 I'll take, but Taylor is riskier.

Have to remove BUF off the board with the Allen news (not playing whole game...sigh).

3-2 on the revised picks, the one that hurt badly was DAL/NYG over 44.5 - I hit that, and a couple of parleys hit.  Sigh.      Ironically, if they don't play around with personnel, I go 6-2 on my initial leans, but just have to trust the process too (and to be fair, SEA was a total backdoor cover special too).

Player props were very kind, I couldn't get a TAM one posted (??), and Cousins / Jeudy / Taylor / Chubb / Kittle all hit, with only Gaskin as the bad whiff.   

7-3 overall, with Logan Thomas looking good.   Losing 1 foundation pick for parleys sucks, but that's why you have to go 90+ percent single bets.    

Should be an awesome WC weekend, love having 6 games to bet, single-game, parleys & player props should be tasty. 

 

Edited January 4, 2021 by Broncofan

[N4L]

On 12/30/2020 at 11:39 PM, N4L said:

As for this week, I am not going to be shy after a bad week. I lost the titans over 56 last week, well, I am going to take the titans over 56 this week again and hope for a different result. Their defense is just so so so bad. They have no pass rush and their secondary is not good. Watson will create a lot of plays with his legs and hit WRs for chunk yardage. Houstons defense is very bad and I dont buy the narrative that JJwatt saying stuff publicly will do anything. These guys know there will be a new coach and that they only have a few more hours left of this awful season. Titans desperately need to win, and the houston rush defense is a bottom 5 unit. I expect both teams to score 30 points rather easily

Rams and the under 41 in that game. Murray is playing hurt, I watched his press conference, he was not happy and I read it as he would definitely sit if it wasnt win or go home. Their offense has been figured out imo. was painfully obvious to me. KK is not a good offensive coach in my eyes. when murray doesnt run, that offense doesnt work. Rams defense will be ready. Mcvay is good enough to figure it out, just like the niners did last week. Stick a fork in arizona, they are done. 

I will probably take a shot on the jets ML. This is just because its plus money and NE looks unbettable to me. The Jets are playing better and gase wants to be able to tell his future employer "tough year but we rallied and won 3 in a row when everyone thought we would be winless". BB knows its better to lose and I bet we see stidham again. 

 

I will be focusing on some player props. the lines arent posted yet, but here is what I am going to look at:

over justin jefferson yards, catches. They want this kid to win OROY and break whatever records he can. They are going to feed him against DET imo. They see diggs having a huge season, and want to pump up jefferson to make themselves feel better about it. He is going to get fed

Over henry rushing yards. I dont care what it is lol probably will be 120 or something, he might have 200 yards this weekend to get close to 2000 lol

latavious murray rushing yards - they may not want to wear out kamara this week and will give work to murray if they get a lead and they see GB is beating the bears. this yardage number should be like 40 something and I think he will break a few big ones to the edges of the carolina defense

over Dobbins rushing yards. I think dobbins is due for a 100 yard game

Absolutely cleaned up this week! Murray prop was never bet thankfully but I also did over Gus Edwards rushing yards, which basically hit in the first half 

[N4L]

On 12/28/2020 at 10:48 PM, Broncofan said:

I think those are lines to take advantage, specifically the CLE / PIT game.

Here's the thing:

1.  PIT / BUF likely do want to play to win - not just because they value HFA for week 2 playoffs, but they're facing a division foe they can knock out.    Maybe it's not enough incentive for BUF - but in PIT/CLE's case, they really dislike each other (remember Myles Garrett - Mason Rudolph).    

2.  PIT's D is exactly the type of D that gives Baker fits - highest pressure % of all D's.   That's exactly what did Baker in (yes, he was missing his WR's, but the real killer was NYJ applying pressure - something he's just not used to).  It's what happened in the 1st game.

3.  PIT's O is so flawed - but the one thing CLE has trouble with are with multiple good WR's - they let Crowder kill them over & over, and PIT can throw 3 WR's that give CLE's secondary fits, and only 1 guy who can cover (Ward).  Next year, you upgrade the LB's and get Greedy Williams back, totally different story.   

4.  Finally, the one thing Big Ben still does - get rid of the ball early.   That negates the impact Garrett & Vernon bring (and Richardson inside).

Now, if CLE can keep it close, their run game can start to take over.  But we're talking giving PIT 7 points.    Holy ****, sign me up for that.  Making the BUF-MIA a pick-em game, a lot can go wrong for that bet to go south.   But asking PIT to keep it within 7?   Jeez, given how they match up, it's hard not to love that..a lot.

So, yes, PIT +7 right away is my foundation play for Week 17.

This was a great breakdown. Steelers offense put a ton of pressure on clevelands secondary, especially deep. With Bens arm being rested, plus the deep ball accuracy I saw from him against the colts, I expect that to continue this week. The three headed monster of claypool, johnson, juju is going to be too much for the browns. plus, vernon is done for the season. 

Browns offense hasnt looked in sync and you are right about baker and a pressure defense like pittsburgh.

The steelers had an undefeated stretch where they were getting some breaks, then the played bad in primetime, so now I think that people are sleeping on them a little bit. I thought this line should have been a TD at open. Now that the browns lose their play caller and starting RG and its still less than a TD? Pound it

I took the steelers -4 before the stefanski news. I still love them at -6. Claypool over yards, dionte johnson over catches are two props I will probably pound. Claypool seems to be a legit deep play threat 

 

I did a bills -0, rams +11, WFT +14.5 teaser for saturday. I will be doing more of a breakdown on all of these games later, but getting the rams + double digits and WFT + three scores with that defense seemed like the way to go

Edited January 6, 2021 by N4L

[SmittyBacall]

I think Bills -6.5 is my most confident spread pick this week. The premise for Indianapolis winning this game revolves around their (normally formidable) defense slowing down the Bills offense and running the ball, but I just don’t see that happening. Josh Allen and that offense are a buzzsaw. We saw what they did to a very good Miami defense last week that had something to play for. The game was over before halftime. I think Buffalo will drop close to another 40 this weekend in what will be a resounding victory. Indy wants to run the ball and isn’t built to keep up with this potent an offense. And one thing we know about Buffalo, they keep the gas pedal down. They’re not a team to let up with a two score lead (see Barkley and Daboll’s playcalling last week).

I also like the over (51.0) in this one. Something like, 38-23 Buffalo.

@N4L @Broncofan What say you?

Edited January 7, 2021 by SmittyBacall

[Kirill]

The Chiefs are going to win the super bowl.

[bigbadbuff]

17 minutes ago, Kirill said:

The Chiefs are going to win the super bowl.

Is that supposed to be a bold statement? lol

[Kirill]

18 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

Is that supposed to be a bold statement? lol

Eh, it was last season. Doesn't game the same response on here this yr. Not sure why lolz

[ET80]

37 minutes ago, Kirill said:

The Chiefs are going to win the super bowl.

Please stay on topic - bets for games THIS week.

- ET

[Broncofan]

Definitely fading KC this week.   Don't see them winning this weekend, feel like this one's a lock.

Edited January 7, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

8 hours ago, N4L said:

This was a great breakdown. Steelers offense put a ton of pressure on clevelands secondary, especially deep. With Bens arm being rested, plus the deep ball accuracy I saw from him against the colts, I expect that to continue this week. The three headed monster of claypool, johnson, juju is going to be too much for the browns. plus, vernon is done for the season. 

Browns offense hasnt looked in sync and you are right about baker and a pressure defense like pittsburgh.

The steelers had an undefeated stretch where they were getting some breaks, then the played bad in primetime, so now I think that people are sleeping on them a little bit. I thought this line should have been a TD at open. Now that the browns lose their play caller and starting RG and its still less than a TD? Pound it

I took the steelers -4 before the stefanski news. I still love them at -6. Claypool over yards, dionte johnson over catches are two props I will probably pound. Claypool seems to be a legit deep play threat 

 

I did a bills -0, rams +11, WFT +14.5 teaser for saturday. I will be doing more of a breakdown on all of these games later, but getting the rams + double digits and WFT + three scores with that defense seemed like the way to go

Spillane's returned to practice.   If he and Vince Williams (who's still a DNP) - it also helps the Steelers run D, which has been a particular weak spot since the LB's have been out.   If they are back, yeah, I'd lean anything below 7 for PIT.   It's too bad, a full roster, and I'd be thinking this is a decent matchup, but man, this is set up so badly for CLE now.   Don't feel bad for the org given they just went through this with NYJ and still chose to return to normal protocol, but their fanbase & players deserve better.

I am all over Diontae & JuJu's reception props.   Claypool I'm leaning to the yardage, he can get left out of the gameplan at times, but he's the big play guy.

 

4 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

I think Bills -6.5 is my most confident spread pick this week. The premise for Indianapolis winning this game revolves around their (normally formidable) defense slowing down the Bills offense and running the ball, but I just don’t see that happening. Josh Allen and that offense are a buzzsaw. We saw what they did to a very good Miami defense last week that had something to play for. The game was over before halftime. I think Buffalo will drop close to another 40 this weekend in what will be a resounding victory. Indy wants to run the ball and isn’t built to keep up with this potent an offense. And one thing we know about Buffalo, they keep the gas pedal down. They’re not a team to let up with a two score lead (see Barkley and Daboll’s playcalling last week).

I also like the over (51.0) in this one. Something like, 38-23 Buffalo.

@N4L @Broncofan What say you?

It pains to me to say it, but yes, I'm on BUF too.  I say it because I've backed IND a ton and profited - but good pass D's, and Rivers, are a bad, bad combo for them.   Love Jonathan Taylor (who's been an ATM for player props the last 6+ weeks) and the IND D .  But in the end, losing Costanza hurts more now - anything that adds pressure on Rivers, well it brings out playoff / crunch time Rivers...which isn't pretty nowadays.  I do think BUF puts up 28+ - I have a hard time seeing IND keeping up with Rivers facing BUF's pass D - when they're ahead, the O clicks, but catching up is a major problem, especially vs. good pass D's that can disguise coverages like BUF can.  I'm thinking 34-24 type game.  The over is a very decent play, too, if you're taking BUF -7, it's hard to see it being a low-scoring affair.   For those that want to back the Colts, then on the flip side, you're believing the run game shortens the game and the under can be argued, but as long as you're backing BUF, then it makes sense to back the over, too.

Player props wise, I would take Taylor so long as the number is below 80.   

Edited January 7, 2021 by Broncofan