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1 hour ago, MikeT14 said:

 

Bills Colts U51
WFT Tampa O45
NO Chicago O47
Baltimore Tenn U55

 

What I've gone with so far. 

Interesting that you like the under in the Bills game. I actually like the over.

 

So you will 100% win that bet

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33 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

Interesting that you like the under in the Bills game. I actually like the over.

 

So you will 100% win that bet

Rivers, albeit a different team, is 3-8 on hitting overs in the playoffs. Colts D is good. It'll be close. 

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4 hours ago, MikeT14 said:

 

Bills Colts U51
WFT Tampa O45
NO Chicago O47
Baltimore Tenn U55

 

What I've gone with so far. 

With no Devin White (Barrett is back), and the WFT secondary, I think rather than trying to figure out the spread, O45 is the way to go for sure.    WFT's D is fierce in its front 7 - but you can beat that secondary - and if there's a type of run that works, it's the power run game.    TAM's O, with their WR's & Ronald Jones back, fits both.    It's a little more concerning knowing Evans is really dinged up (he's likely a decoy IMO if he plays), but that's where having AB to pair up with Godwin (and Scotty Miller as a vertical threat) helps.    On the flip side, with no Devin White, the run D is mortal, and their TE / middle of field coverage suffers, although they're still a very good D - just not a great D.    

WFT's emergence is a great story, and I love their front 7, and TAM has been a terrible favorite before December - 8.5 is a lot of points.  But they match up so well with WFT's D's weaknesses.   Still, 8.5 points is 8.5 points - so I think O45 is a much easier line to exploit.    TAM overcomes the WFT pass rush, then they put 31+.   WFT putting up 14-17 seems very reasonable to project as a floor.   

If TAM puts up 31, and are up 31-17 by early 4Q, then you're done, and you don't need to worry about the ugly backdoor, which is always alive when you're protecting a 7+ pt margin (unlike when it's below 7, or better yet, below 3, just far fewer paths where trailing team gets there).

Edited by Broncofan
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42 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

If TAM puts up 31, and are up 31-17 by early 4Q, 

This is pretty much the exact score I am expecting. A barely cover, but one nonetheless. 

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I'm taking both Colts (+245) and Titans (+160)  MLs because I expect one of those to hit but I can't figure out exactly which one. 

Might tease the Bears and Skins up to 16.5 and 14.5 

Edited by Ray Reed
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Does anyone know where I could possibly get odds on which NFL HOF Finalists actually make it to the HOF? I am trying to get my bookie to add futures for it, but he asked me to provide him with odds first, and I haven't been able to find them anywhere. 

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Player props this weekend: 

Saturday: 

 

Taylor over 75.5 rushing 

Ronald Jones over 58.5 rushing 

Antonio Brown over 58.5 receiving 

Chris Godwin over 61.5 receiving 

Higbee over 29.5 receiving 

McKissic over 36.5 receiving 

Sims over 38.5 receiving 

 

Sunday: 

Diontae Johnson over 6.5 recs 

Diontae Johnson over 62.5 receiving 

Montgomery over 60.5 rushing 

Marquise Brown over 49.5 receiving  

 

BOL! 

 

Edited by Broncofan
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Over Unders I like:

Washington +8.5 - They have a real defense, will be at home, 35 degrees, with wind. This is going to be a low scoring game so 8.5 is way too much (also like the U45.5. The way to beat Brady has always been with a good front 4. This team is very similar to the healthy Bears early in the season that beat TB. 

SEA-3-  Backup QB vs a good team on the road? I like LARs D but this isn't right. 

 

Other than that, I'm not really high on anything. If I had to do a pick 5-

Chi +10- That is just a lot of points to give a decent team. Seems like a little over reaction from last week. 

Pitt-6  - This is just classic Cleveland collapse time/Pitt pick up (and Cleveland hasn't really played well against good teams). I wish I could have gotten the opening number.

Buff -6 -I do like Indy's D, but I don't see it them matching up well.

 

Ravens/Tenn I have no feeling on. I guess I'd say Tenn moneyline and get the +160.

 

Edited by pacman5252
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26 minutes ago, pacman5252 said:

What I really like:

Washington +8.5 - They have a real defense, will be at home, 35 degrees, with wind. This is going to be a low scoring game so 8.5 is way too much. The way to beat Brady has always been with a good front 4. This team is very similar to the healthy Bears early in the season that beat TB. 

SEA-3-  Backup QB vs a good team on the road? I like LARs D but this isn't right. 

 

Other than that, I'm not really high on anything. If I had to do a pick 5-

Chi +10- That is just a lot of points to give a decent team. Seems like a little over reaction from last week. 

Pitt-6  - This is just classic Cleveland collapse time/Pitt pick up (and Cleveland hasn't really played well against good teams). I wish I could have gotten the opening number.

Buff -6 -I do like Indy's D, but I don't see it them matching up well.

 

Ravens/Tenn I have no feeling on. I guess I'd say Tenn moneyline and get the +160.

 

When Alex Smith was the QB, I could totally see the WFT angle - but not with Heinecke as the QB.

3 main reasons:

-Cold weather doesn't bother Brady, and because it's a 8 PM game - the wind will have died down.  Forecasts are calling for 8-9 MPH.  It's a total nonfactor. 

-TAM has the 2 components that can beat the WFT D - WR's to exploit their CB's, and the power run game.   Finesse/speed run games have no shot against the WFT front 4 - but power is the one way you can get to them.    The WFT CB's don't press well enough (they play zone), which allows Brady to get rid of the ball before inside pressure gets home.   If you can get inside pressure AND cover the quick hitters, that's how you beat him (and why NO is such a bad, bad matchup for him).   WFT's secondary can't do the 2nd part of that equation.

-Finally, Heinecke raises the TO potential for TAM's D.   Smith is so safe with the football, that was a major component to taking the points with WFT. 

I have nothing but respect for WFT's D, especially that front 7 - but the weather isn't a factor, and Heinecke is a major problem to try and shorten the game to keep it close.   


On that note - I'm changing my TO/WFT O45 to TAM -8 in my picks.....and sadly, I have to pull Sims O38.5, too.   I am still on McKissic receiving yards.  If anything, game script favors even more catches for him.


TL:DR picks and props:

BUF -6.5

TAM -8

LAR +3.5 (Akers being healthy, the line moving past 3, I'll take the points)

CHI +10 

TEN/BAL O55

PIT -6

Saturday: 

 

Taylor over 75.5 rushing 

Ronald Jones over 58.5 rushing 

Antonio Brown over 58.5 receiving 

Chris Godwin over 61.5 receiving 

Higbee over 29.5 receiving 

McKissic over 36.5 receiving (Sims removed)

 

Sunday: 

Diontae Johnson over 6.5 recs 

Diontae Johnson over 62.5 receiving 

Montgomery over 60.5 rushing 

Marquise Brown over 49.5 receiving  

 

Edited by Broncofan
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