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8 hours ago, Broncofan said:

It feels so weird to not have prop bets for Jonathan Taylor, Diontae Johnson or Derrick Henry.   They were printing machines the 2H of the season.

dobbins anytime TD has been cashing out for me. Dude has a nose for the endzone

over QB rushing totals in the playoffs is money. QBs will put it all on the line for elimination games

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I am going to take the over 16.5 cam akers rush attempts. He is their workhorse and they will continue to feed him. He should get this in the first 3 quarters. thought about yards but 17 carries feels like a gimme. Packers will be geared up to stop the run, no doubt about it. They know that everyone thinks thats the way to beat them. The packers actually were pretty stout later in the year, they played with much much much better gap discipline and that changed everything for them. Rams know they need to protect jared goof and will continue to run the ball even if they are trailing. They want to play complimentary football with their defense. 

Over 68.5 aaron jones rushing yards. Rams D can be ran on to the edges. Their LBs are not good at going sideline to sideline. The niners had a lot of success there. The seahawks dont run to the edge all that often, but they called a lot of those type of runs against the rams and they worked pretty well. with the rams pass D being what it is, jones will see plenty of work. I wonder how much they will rotate their backs, I would imagine in an elimination game they will free aaron jones a bit more than they did during the season. This feels like a great bet to me, especially because I expect them to win the game and to chew clock like they always seem to do

Buffalo's rush D can be had on the edges as well. They actually looked pretty good up the middle against the colts but they got hit for some chunk plays on the outside, especially later in the game. Lamar and dobbins are going to have good days on the ground, even though the bills will be gearing up to stop the run . Dobbins rush yard prop is like 57. thats super low. Lamar should go off as well. 

 

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4 hours ago, N4L said:

I am going to take the over 16.5 cam akers rush attempts. He is their workhorse and they will continue to feed him. He should get this in the first 3 quarters. thought about yards but 17 carries feels like a gimme. Packers will be geared up to stop the run, no doubt about it. They know that everyone thinks thats the way to beat them. The packers actually were pretty stout later in the year, they played with much much much better gap discipline and that changed everything for them. Rams know they need to protect jared goof and will continue to run the ball even if they are trailing. They want to play complimentary football with their defense. 

I took over 69.5 rush yards but am since regretting it a bit considering how well Green Bays defense has stopped the run in recent weeks. I’m hoping he breaks one or two 12+ yarders.

4 hours ago, N4L said:

Over 68.5 aaron jones rushing yards. Rams D can be ran on to the edges. Their LBs are not good at going sideline to sideline. The niners had a lot of success there. The seahawks dont run to the edge all that often, but they called a lot of those type of runs against the rams and they worked pretty well. with the rams pass D being what it is, jones will see plenty of work. I wonder how much they will rotate their backs, I would imagine in an elimination game they will free aaron jones a bit more than they did during the season. This feels like a great bet to me, especially because I expect them to win the game and to chew clock like they always seem to do

I hear what you’re saying, but the emergence of AJ Dillon (and Jamaal Williams - to an extent) has me staying away. 
 

 

4 hours ago, N4L said:

Buffalo's rush D can be had on the edges as well. They actually looked pretty good up the middle against the colts but they got hit for some chunk plays on the outside, especially later in the game. Lamar and dobbins are going to have good days on the ground, even though the bills will be gearing up to stop the run . Dobbins rush yard prop is like 57. thats super low. Lamar should go off as well. 

Agreed, 57.5 yards too low for Dobbins. And like you said earlier, capable running QBs turn it up in the playoffs. I especially like Allen’a rushing attempts over (7.5), considering Zach Moss’ injury. I think he could pick up more designed runs and short yardage work.

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PROPS I LIKE:

Godwin over 67.5 receiving yards. He has the best match up amongst the TB WRs. With Evans mainly seeing Lattimore, I like Godwin to be the go-to match up in the slot versus CGJ (who can be had in coverage). 

Lamar Jackson over 74.5 rush yards. Lamar turns it up rushing in close games and Buffalo can be had on the ground. Dobbins/Edwards should also find success which will open things up for playoff Lamar (on options etc.).

Josh Allen over 7.5 rushes. Playoff QB rushing syndrome. Put it all on the line. With Moss out I like them to manufacture some more short yardage runs Allen’s way.

Tom Brady over 0.5 interceptions. He’s throw 5 in two games versus New Orleans this season. They have his number. I think Tom plays well in this one but the Saints defense is sharp and disruptive enough to get Tom to cough one up. I also like the Saints to win this one so Brady should be playing from behind, can’t rely on the run versus a top notch run defense, and will be required to throw more boosting INT opportunities. 
 

TD PICKS (value x talent x opportunity):

Robert Tonyan (+110). Davante will see Ramsey. TDs will need to go elsewhere. Tonyan is the next man up.

JK Dobbins (+110). On a scoring heater. Buffalo can be had on the ground. I like his chances here.

Kareem Hunt (+130). The Browns line is dominant enough to maintain their potent ground game. Any success Cleveland will have versus KC will come through Chubb/Hunt. I like Hunt to score with nice value in his KC revenge game.

Chris Godwin (+120). Same reasons as the receiving prop above. I will like take Godwin for two TDs, along with AB, as my hope and pray picks. 

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2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

PROPS I LIKE:

Godwin over 67.5 receiving yards. He has the best match up amongst the TB WRs. With Evans mainly seeing Lattimore, I like Godwin to be the go-to match up in the slot versus CGJ (who can be had in coverage). 

Lamar Jackson over 74.5 rush yards. Lamar turns it up rushing in close games and Buffalo can be had on the ground. Dobbins/Edwards should also find success which will open things up for playoff Lamar (on options etc.).

Josh Allen over 7.5 rushes. Playoff QB rushing syndrome. Put it all on the line. With Moss out I like them to manufacture some more short yardage runs Allen’s way.

Tom Brady over 0.5 interceptions. He’s throw 5 in two games versus New Orleans this season. They have his number. I think Tom plays well in this one but the Saints defense is sharp and disruptive enough to get Tom to cough one up. I also like the Saints to win this one so Brady should be playing from behind, can’t rely on the run versus a top notch run defense, and will be required to throw more boosting INT opportunities. 
 

TD PICKS (value x talent x opportunity):

Robert Tonyan (+110). Davante will see Ramsey. TDs will need to go elsewhere. Tonyan is the next man up.

JK Dobbins (+110). On a scoring heater. Buffalo can be had on the ground. I like his chances here.

Kareem Hunt (+130). The Browns line is dominant enough to maintain their potent ground game. Any success Cleveland will have versus KC will come through Chubb/Hunt. I like Hunt to score with nice value in his KC revenge game.

Chris Godwin (+120). Same reasons as the receiving prop above. I will like take Godwin for two TDs, along with AB, as my hope and pray picks. 

Love the Godwin play. Great analysis with his matchup. It's def the better one of the 3 WR's.

Lamar Jackson is up to 79.5 on Fanduel and just feels like a trap bet at this point.

Love Tonyan/Hunt/Godwin. Dobbins has scored something absurd like 4 or 5 straight games? Feels trappy. 

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10 hours ago, N4L said:

dobbins anytime TD has been cashing out for me. Dude has a nose for the endzone

over QB rushing totals in the playoffs is money. QBs will put it all on the line for elimination games

Yeah, I think rushing props are more likely to be the gap to exploit.

For LAR-GB, definitely with you on Akers rush props.   For BAL-BUF, both Dobbins & Lamar's rush props look good.

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3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

PROPS I LIKE:

Godwin over 67.5 receiving yards. He has the best match up amongst the TB WRs. With Evans mainly seeing Lattimore, I like Godwin to be the go-to match up in the slot versus CGJ (who can be had in coverage). 

Lamar Jackson over 74.5 rush yards. Lamar turns it up rushing in close games and Buffalo can be had on the ground. Dobbins/Edwards should also find success which will open things up for playoff Lamar (on options etc.).

Josh Allen over 7.5 rushes. Playoff QB rushing syndrome. Put it all on the line. With Moss out I like them to manufacture some more short yardage runs Allen’s way.

Tom Brady over 0.5 interceptions. He’s throw 5 in two games versus New Orleans this season. They have his number. I think Tom plays well in this one but the Saints defense is sharp and disruptive enough to get Tom to cough one up. I also like the Saints to win this one so Brady should be playing from behind, can’t rely on the run versus a top notch run defense, and will be required to throw more boosting INT opportunities. 
 

TD PICKS (value x talent x opportunity):

Robert Tonyan (+110). Davante will see Ramsey. TDs will need to go elsewhere. Tonyan is the next man up.

JK Dobbins (+110). On a scoring heater. Buffalo can be had on the ground. I like his chances here.

Kareem Hunt (+130). The Browns line is dominant enough to maintain their potent ground game. Any success Cleveland will have versus KC will come through Chubb/Hunt. I like Hunt to score with nice value in his KC revenge game.

Chris Godwin (+120). Same reasons as the receiving prop above. I will like take Godwin for two TDs, along with AB, as my hope and pray picks. 

I'm on Akers & Lamar yards & Allen rush props as well.

Love Godwin's receiving props, injury is the only way that doesn't hit IMO. On those 4.

For spreads, I'm avoiding BAL-BUF & TAM-NO completely, literally have no feel.   But I'm OK with taking LAR +6.5 and CLE +10.   

TL:DR


SAT

LAR +6.5

Akers over 70.5 rushing

Lamar over 77.5 rushing

Dobbins over 60.5 rushing

Allen over 7.5 rush attempts


SUN

CLE +10

Demarcus Robinson over 3.5 recs (Sammy's out, he and Pringle will see more action, so will Hardman, but Robinson & Pringle will take Sammy's spot).

Pringle crazy TD prop +500 / +8000 for 2 (very small amounts, but hey, YOLO) - like, 0.2U lol.

Hunt over 2.5 recs (+100 right now)

Godwin over 68.5 receiving

 

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5 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

I hear what you’re saying, but the emergence of AJ Dillon (and Jamaal Williams - to an extent) has me staying away. 
 

I have opposite way of looking at it. They played those guys to keep aaron jones fresh for todays game. He was banged up this year and the packers have been super conservative with injuries. Off the bye, he should go back to being that work horse type he was early in the year and all of last season

Dillon only had one game where he played a lot, I dont see him being a factor here at all. I would be surprised if he had more than 5 snaps. 

Again, the way to run on the rams is to the edge. Jones is their best runner to the edge without question

I like everything else you are saying though

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As a Packer fan I would

  • Buy Tonyan yards/TDs
  • Sell Davante Adams
  • Buy Rodgers TDs but not yards
  • Buy Aaron Jones rushing yards/TDs but not receiving
  • MVS is a 50/50 chance to catch a 40 yard TD, otherwise will likely do nothing
  • Sell Rams WR1
  • Buy Rams WR2
  • Sell the Rams rushing game (Akers yards got too high)
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29 minutes ago, N4L said:

I have opposite way of looking at it. They played those guys to keep aaron jones fresh for todays game. He was banged up this year and the packers have been super conservative with injuries. Off the bye, he should go back to being that work horse type he was early in the year and all of last season

Dillon only had one game where he played a lot, I dont see him being a factor here at all. I would be surprised if he had more than 5 snaps. 

Again, the way to run on the rams is to the edge. Jones is their best runner to the edge without question

I like everything else you are saying though

You’re probably right.

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Screen-Shot-2021-01-16-at-12-09-42-PM.pn

 

Screen-Shot-2021-01-16-at-12-10-04-PM.pn

@MWil23

In case you thought I was joking. I have one with the Browns ML and one with the Browns/Chiefs Over though.

I'm not a big parlay fan, but I hate the hassle of these online sportsbooks cashing in and out, so I just do a few parlays a year.

If I lived in Vegas, I would do solely big straight bets.

 

EDIT: BB Code doesn't work anymore? Had to click "Insert Image".

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