Weekly Bets Thread

[Nozizaki]

11 hours ago, NYRaider said:

My annual, let's get rich off $20 parlay. $121,977.10 payout. Let's goooo

Did you just pick only road teams, week one?

[LeotheLion]

15 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Assuming you're doing a 6-point teaser, I'm only getting Rams -3 (so -2 on a 7-point teaser). If you can get them at -1 on a 6-point teaser, that seems like great value. There's just enough uncertainty with it being Stafford's first game and what that rushing offense will look like, that I'm shying away from it. They should of course win comfortably, but I'm trying to target low uncertainty in the early goings. 

Few teams have less uncertainty than the Pack this year, and I think the line is being suppressed by the Saints name value & offseason drama for Green Bay. I think in most cases, a Jameis Winston led team on a neutral field with a lot of roster turnover vs Rodgers on virtually the same team is looking like more of a -7 line. To get the Packers +3 in this scenario just feels like a safe cushion. Maybe I'm wrong. 

I do like the Seahawks a lot this week, but I am also a fan of the team, so I try to remove my potential bias as much as I can. Even said, this team against what I can only assume is a rusty Carson Wentz is enticing. 

I think I did the Rams line when it was 7 or 7.5 so maybe it is 1.5 on the 6 point tease. I was listing everything off memory so it may be off by half a point or so on a few.

Being weary of the Packers is more to do with my trust in the Saints defense and Payton/Kamara with that offensive line to move the ball. Winston is a complete wildcard who very easily could single handedly lose the game. I just like a few other options in a tease. 

[N4L]

A solid strategy is to take the over in rush yards of the starting RBs of heavy (two score) favorites 

Rojo rushing yards 47.5 

Fournette rushing yards 37 (or something) 

Seems easy 

[N4L]

I did a teaser of Tampa -3 and the under 58.5 

Dallas' offense won't do enough to threaten either of these imo 

Tampa has such a large coaching advantage on both sides of the ball

Remind me again why Dallas got this game??

[SmittyBacall]

3 hours ago, N4L said:

A solid strategy is to take the over in rush yards of the starting RBs of heavy (two score) favorites 

Rojo rushing yards 47.5 

Fournette rushing yards 37 (or something) 

Seems easy 

Also have the Jones rushing attempts total at 11.5 (+110). I think they have their way with them on the ground.

[BayRaider]

Vegas makes the most money they could of possibly made as always. TB -9 loses. DAL ML loses. All teasers lose (which all had TB -3 to -6). 

[SmittyBacall]

@N4L My 49ers sherpa, I need your guidance on what appears to be a very juicy prop line.

Aiyuk receiving yards - ov/und 44.5

I’m extremely bullish on Aiyuk, and this seems like an extremely low figure. Looking at last season, he hit this on 6 of 7 games to end the year, not going lower than 73 yards in the 6 games he surpassed that mark. And then considering the matchup, they’re facing a lowly Lions team that gave up the 2nd most receiving yards in the NFL, and 2nd more to wide receivers. They’re secondary is dreadful.

I understand Aiyuk has missed some practice time, but he’s participating in full this week. Seems like a lock, no?

[SBLIII]

 

 

 

[JonStark]

12 minutes ago, SBLIII said:

 

 

 

I'm going to either win or lose a ton on the Broncos. I just feel like they are better than the Giants on both sides of the ball. 

[DontTazeMeBro]

5 minutes ago, JonStark said:

I'm going to either win or lose a ton on the Broncos. I just feel like they are better than the Giants on both sides of the ball. 

Yeah that Broncos one is surprising. That looks like possibly the easiest pick on the board.

[SaveOurSonics]

Hit on 2 player props last night: 
 

OJ Howard <20 receiving yards
Zeke Elliott <16 rushing attempts

 

Neither was all that close. These are the ones I really like going into the week: 

Jerry Jeudy O4.5 receptions (+127) 
DeVonta Smith O3.5 receptions (-120) 
Michael Pittman O4.5 receptions (-103) 
Terry McLaurin O5.5 receptions (-114) 
Jared Goff u20.5 completions (+100) 
Gerald Everett O25.5 receiving yards (-115) 

The Jeudy over with that kind've juice seems well worth the squeeze. I'm expecting Sutton to primarily draw Bradberry and the Giants offense is expected to struggle, which should yield plenty of opportunities for the Denver offense. 

More of a gut call on Smith. I think the Eagles force feed him early and often to bring him up to speed as a #1 alpha type. At least that seemed to be the plan in the preseason. Against a weak Atlanta secondary, I'll take a number that could otherwise get up to O/U 5.5 in a few weeks. 

This feels like a near lock for Pittman, and at -103 I love it. TY is out. The Seahawks have one of the more questionable CB groups in the league + the 5th best run defense in 2020. The connection with Wentz has reportedly been there. I'd expect 7-8 targets for Pittman here. 

With Curtis Samuel out, I expect Fitz to pepper McLaurin with double digit targets. We'll see if Chris Harris can bounce back from last year. 

Goff didn't the over here in either game against the 49ers in 2020. He now plays for a more conservative coach on a team with worse weapons and a worse defense (meaning more T.O.P. for SF). At +100? Please. 

Everett is more of a gut call as a Hawks fan. He's reportedly gelled very well with Russ and I'd expect Waldron to show off his new toy immediately against a relatively poor group of coverage LBs in Indy. Everett could easily hit the over here on a single catch.

[N4L]

4 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

@N4L My 49ers sherpa, I need your guidance on what appears to be a very juicy prop line.

Aiyuk receiving yards - ov/und 44.5

I’m extremely bullish on Aiyuk, and this seems like an extremely low figure. Looking at last season, he hit this on 6 of 7 games to end the year, not going lower than 73 yards in the 6 games he surpassed that mark. And then considering the matchup, they’re facing a lowly Lions team that gave up the 2nd most receiving yards in the NFL, and 2nd more to wide receivers. They’re secondary is dreadful.

I understand Aiyuk has missed some practice time, but he’s participating in full this week. Seems like a lock, no?

He is a full go, so the injury shouldnt matter outside of the re-injury risk.

That is a very short number for our clear cut #1 WR who is the main guy we use to stretch the field. I think its a good bet and I would say you have the green light to fire it off. 

My main concern is gameflow, I expect the niners to rush for 250 yards, and I really think Detroit will be lucky to score 17 points, so I wonder how much passing we will do in the second half, but given how concerned the lions are going to be about our run game, we may elect to soften up the defense by hitting them over the top early in the game. 45 yards could be as little as 2-3 catches for him and he should clear that rather easily.

One thing to note, we will undoubtedly rotate QBs within the same series, and JG has looked real sharp all preseason, while Lance has shown he looks for the big play first. I dont think it matters who is QB because aiyuk will certainly have his number called by kyle throughout the game

Personally, I would rather play the over mostert rushing yards but this is a good bet as well

[N4L]

I love the over in the panthers jets game. 44 is low for a game featuring two terrible-bad defenses. I think they are giving Saleh too much credit right now for something that hasnt happened yet. The jets have to prove to me they are a good defense before I consider them to be anything more than dogsh!t. The jets secondary is more than likely the least talented in the NFL. The panthers have a ton of weapons on the outside including freaking CMC. I think Darnold will do well with some structure to the offense, and Joe Brady is by far the best offensive coach he has ever had.  

Zach Wilson slings the ball around the field. That guy is super aggressive. They have the younger mcfleur calling plays now and I think they should have success running the ball. Carolinas defense is pretty young and they are probably farther along than the jets defense, but I really like Corey Davis and Elijah Moore and I think the Jets will find ways to make it look easy to get the ball into their hands. 

Feels like both offenses will have some huge plays. It might start slow for a drive or two but I think there will be plenty of points scored to clear 44

On 8/27/2021 at 10:27 PM, Broncofan said:

DEN -1 @ NYG - with Teddy B at QB, basically means he won't win the game on his own, but he won't lose it, either.    Given the injury issues with NYG, and Danny Jones not looking like there's any progress so far - this is an easy -120 ML pick....and before the homer calls come out, realize I usually bet against DEN 2/3 of the time.    Once Barkley, Golladay and any other Giants are listed as questionable/doubtful - I think the DEN line moves even more

This is a great pick and it was part of a TB ML, SF ML, DEN-1, BAL-4 parlay I did when I was in vegas in mid august. (I also did a three teamer without denver). I usually dont do big parlays but this was some money I won at the tables and I told myself I wanted to pay for a suite with those bets the next time I go.

That was before the ravens had so many injuries at RB unfortunately. I am not loving the fact its -4 and not -3, but its locked in. The reasoning was that the Ravens would run the ball down the raiders throats all night long with dobbins and Gus. Oh well. I still think they win by a touchdown. 

**** I'll take this opportunity to say to everyone that parlays are a suckers game. You just double your chances at losing and you are better off betting each game straight. My recommendation is to keep parlays to a small percentage of your days total risk. That way you can still win a lot if you shoot the moon, but will still feel good about 3/4 or whatever. We are betting that we know enough football to be win over the long haul. Its also better to not try and play 10 games but rather 3-4. **** 

 

On 8/27/2021 at 10:27 PM, Broncofan said:

CLE +6 @ KC - no way I think CLE wins week 1 on the road - but 6 pts is a LOT to give up with the way they can keep the game close with their terrific OL and run game with Chubb/Hunt.    Plus, the CLE D figures to be vastly improved with their CB's back, S John Johnson upgrading the middle.   It really comes down to how exploitable their LB's are.    Still, all in all I have a hard time laying 6 with CLE

Ive come around to this game a lot. Especially if the honey badger is out, that is absolutely huge.

I really wanted to take the over because the browns offense feels like its primed for an absolute breakout. That run game is a problem. Baker is a very intelligent QB who spreads the ball around. They have a lot of guys who can catch passes. Landry will help keep the chains moving and they should have some long drives. This is why I dont think I can take the over 54, I think CLEs gameplan will be long, deliberate drives that keeps mahomes/their defense off the field. So instead, I am going to ride with you on the +5/5.5 now. I am hoping to get it at 6 again but we will see how it goes. 

On 8/27/2021 at 10:27 PM, Broncofan said:

NE -3 vs. MIA - this is just a bad matchup for MIA week 1.  They've missed a ton of guys on O (which they needed to develop chemistry with Tua), their OL is still in progress, and the NE OL is intact, and that means a heavy dose of their power run game.    They won't have Fuller for Week 1, and Parker / Waddle have already missed a ton of time.    And that's before we get to how the NE D looks to be reinforced from 2021, and how well their OL looks as a cohesive run blocking unit.  If you ask me who wins more games in 2022 - I think it's MIA.   But this is a case where the matchups tilt towards NE.  

What do you think of the under in this game? I think you posted this before Cam was cut but I know you still like this game. NE power run game = running clock, yes? Tua struggles plus NEs very stout front means maimi doesnt put up a lot of points? Field position battle type division game? or does this become a back and forth game between two alabama NC winning QBs? 

It really feels like a 17-10 half way through the fourth quarter type of game to me. 

What do you think about IND-2/3? You mentioned that the eagles have a massive advantage in both trenches as a reason why you like Philly. The colts should have a massive advantage there on both sides of the ball. They are well coached. The colts secondary is going to have issues with lockett and DK and wilson will do what wilson does, so its not going to be a blowout or anything, I just think the colts are the more talented team overall. A (allegedly) healthy, confident wentz is a good QB. It feels right but I am also a bit bias which makes me hesitate lol 

 

Niners are going to smash DET - mostert will slice and dice for 150+

 

12 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Hit on 2 player props last night: 

Dont do this. either post em in the thread of gtfo lol

[Ray Reed]

Added LAC -1 @ WAS.

I know it’s Chargers going west to east but living in the area i’ve just seen too many disappointing washington openers, and that Chargers defense isn’t banged up yet being that it’s week 1. I think they force 2-3 turnovers off Fitz and that group.

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, Ray Reed said:

Added LAC -1 @ WAS.

I know it’s Chargers going west to east but living in the area i’ve just seen too many disappointing washington openers, and that Chargers defense isn’t banged up yet being that it’s week 1. I think they force 2-3 turnovers off Fitz and that group.

Normally WC teams going east is a problem for sure - but it's a bye week with 2 weeks off.  There's zero reason this should have the same effect, if the coaching staff know what they are doing.     

That brings up the 2nd historical trend - coaching staffs who are new usually have a disadvantage  vs. established coaching staffs on Week 1, if the talent is similar.   But in this case, getting rid of Lynn and his HOF-level worst game management decision making ever, more than negates this.

Ultimately, what sells this for me is that talent-wise, the Chargers should clearly win in the trenches on D vs. WFT, and their biggest weakness has been massively upgraded (OL) - which is crucial vs. that front 7 of WFT.   If you give Herbert enough time, the secondary is where LAC has a clear path to success.

Now LAC is actually a dog, so I love the ML play.