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Weekly Bets Thread


BStanRamFan

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Player props I'm all over:

Jeudy over 4.5 catches, over 50.5 yards (no Adoree, or limited Adoree, changes the matchup dynamic there)

Pitts over 4.5 catches, over 44.5 yards (PHI not having McLeod and gamescript with me taking a PHI W, help this a lot)

Keenan Allen over 5.5 catches and over 58.5 yards - that's WAY too low on the yardage.

J-Taylor over 68.5 yards rushing - same deal as Allen.

Corey Davis over 4.5 catches, over 58.5 yards, and +210 TD prop, and +3300 for 2+.   I'm on the belief that Cole is out, so that is way too low of a line.  I'll take a +3300 2+ TD prop.   Similarly, Denzel Mims (who becomes 3rd WR if Cole is out) at +600 / +1000 2+ TD's is just too good of value.   On the CAR side, Dan Arnold is +330 and +5000 for 1/2+ TD's, worth a look. 

Pittman over 49.5 receiving yards. 

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1 hour ago, N4L said:

 

**** I'll take this opportunity to say to everyone that parlays are a suckers game. You just double your chances at losing and you are better off betting each game straight. My recommendation is to keep parlays to a small percentage of your days total risk. That way you can still win a lot if you shoot the moon, but will still feel good about 3/4 or whatever. We are betting that we know enough football to be win over the long haul. Its also better to not try and play 10 games but rather 3-4. **** 

 

 


Honestly this should get pinned to the top of every annual Bets thread.

At least 90 percent if not higher of your weekly stake should be single plays.   The ROI on parleys is the worst by far.

All of these picks that are -110, hopefully we can hit on 55+, or 60+ percent(the holy grail for long-term success).  But that's the edge.   Parleys just multiply that 40-45 percent risk even with the best plays, and only need 1 to fail.  

Play parleys for fun, but stick to single bets, if you want to build your stake.  I say that as someone who will always have a weekly parley - but that's 5-10 percent of my weekly buy-in, at most.  BOL!

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1 hour ago, N4L said:

I love the over in the panthers jets game. 44 is low for a game featuring two terrible-bad defenses. I think they are giving Saleh too much credit right now for something that hasnt happened yet. The jets have to prove to me they are a good defense before I consider them to be anything more than dogsh!t. The jets secondary is more than likely the least talented in the NFL. The panthers have a ton of weapons on the outside including freaking CMC. I think Darnold will do well with some structure to the offense, and Joe Brady is by far the best offensive coach he has ever had.  

Zach Wilson slings the ball around the field. That guy is super aggressive. They have the younger mcfleur calling plays now and I think they should have success running the ball. Carolinas defense is pretty young and they are probably farther along than the jets defense, but I really like Corey Davis and Elijah Moore and I think the Jets will find ways to make it look easy to get the ball into their hands. 

Feels like both offenses will have some huge plays. It might start slow for a drive or two but I think there will be plenty of points scored to clear 44

 

The other part is that the Jets OL is really improved, which negates the major strength of the Panthers D - that front 7.   Now Jaycee Horn should really upgrade that secondary, but 44 is super low.   It's one of the reasons why I'm on the Davis/Mims props, so long as both Crowder & Cole are out, since it really concentrates targets on 3 guys (Elijah Moore being the 3rd guy, and an absolute rookie steal, but the value isn't as high on the odds).

I could get behind O44 pretty easily.

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, N4L said:

 

What do you think of the under in the NE-MIA game? I think you posted this before Cam was cut but I know you still like this game. NE power run game = running clock, yes? Tua struggles plus NEs very stout front means maimi doesnt put up a lot of points? Field position battle type division game? or does this become a back and forth game between two alabama NC winning QBs? 

It really feels like a 17-10 game midway through the 4Q.

Yeah, the only way that the over hits (and MIA wins) is if Tua has a coming-out type of signature game, or a TO-fest that puts the ball on short fields, that the O then cashes in on.  Because honestly, the more I look at this game, the more I see a massive advantage on BOTH sides of ball - MIA OL vs. NE front 7, and NE OL vs. MIA's front 7.   

I love Flores and I actually think MIA ends up with the better record at year's end, but that kind of trench disparity is one I'll rarely bet against - although I wish we didn't have the uncertainty of Mac Jones' 1st game vs. a D guru like Flores.   I'm still on NE -2.5, but the under is another play I can back here.

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3 hours ago, N4L said:

 

What do you think about IND-2/3? You mentioned that the eagles have a massive advantage in both trenches as a reason why you like Philly. The colts should have a massive advantage there on both sides of the ball. They are well coached. The colts secondary is going to have issues with lockett and DK and wilson will do what wilson does, so its not going to be a blowout or anything, I just think the colts are the more talented team overall. A (allegedly) healthy, confident wentz is a good QB. It feels right but I am also a bit bias which makes me hesitate lol 

 

There are 3 reasons why I'm uncertain enough to avoid (but won't pass up on Taylor rushing props) - first, anytime you have to lay points to Russell Wilson, it's always dicey.  I hate that IND doesn't have a solid LT (I know Paye is looking good, but IMO you go LT at 1.20 with who was on the board, and never look back).    I also don't like that they don't have a big bodied CB to match up with DK now that Rhodes is out.     Those are the reasons it's an avoid for me.

 

Re: BAL-LV, yeah, I'm still on BAL -4.     Much like with NE-MIA, I just see too much of a disadvantage with LV in the trenches here.    That's a major problem, even if BAL lost Peters and their starting RB's.  RB is the easiest position to fill on short notice.    Obviously I thought this was a lopsided game b4 to still be on BAL -4 now.   The spread makes me uneasy any time it's over 7, or over 3, though - but I won't cancel the bet, unless the Ravens lose more key guys before Monday night.     Whenever I see a trench advantage that's pronounced and on BOTH sides of the ball - it's hard for me to ignore, I seldom go against that, unless there's a massive QB/skill position/coaching edge for the lesser trench-skill team.   It's why I'm on NE -2.5 BAL -4, and also on PHI as the dog winner over ATL, and DEN over NYG.

 

And while I agree on your PSA about parleys - the extra nice part with BAL is they are the last of my lone 5-leg parley (PHI/LAC/DEN ML & NE -2.5), so if it's still alive by then, I can hedge out - which is NEVER a bad move if you've got +1200 or more on line.   BOL!

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1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Normally WC teams going east is a problem for sure - but it's a bye week with 2 weeks off.  There's zero reason this should have the same effect, if the coaching staff know what they are doing.     

That brings up the 2nd historical trend - coaching staffs who are new usually have a disadvantage  vs. established coaching staffs on Week 1, if the talent is similar.   But in this case, getting rid of Lynn and his HOF-level worst game management decision making ever, more than negates this.

Ultimately, what sells this for me is that talent-wise, the Chargers should clearly win in the trenches on D vs. WFT, and their biggest weakness has been massively upgraded (OL) - which is crucial vs. that front 7 of WFT.   If you give Herbert enough time, the secondary is where LAC has a clear path to success.

Now LAC is actually a dog, so I love the ML play.  

 

 

Great insight. Agreed on all accounts.

Should have waited for the line to move, took it a few weeks ago when LAC was -1, unfortunately, because I had a draftkings promo that I needed to use.

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6 hours ago, N4L said:

Dont do this. either post em in the thread of gtfo lol

I’ll shoot straight with you. Posting my prop bets in this thread is not priority #1 😂

 

I mostly do it to get feedback on my brainstorming, but I already loved both of those lines enough without it. That said, feel free to hit me with your feedback on the ones I did share for this weekend 😉

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16 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Re: BAL-LV, yeah, I'm still on BAL -4. 

Smart man, I'm a Raiders fan and obviously want us to win. But we're going to be starting a rookie RT and two guys that are essentially rookies at LG/C. We also have like 6 new starters on defense and it's their first game in a new scheme. 

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On 9/10/2021 at 8:38 AM, DontTazeMeBro said:

Yeah that Broncos one is surprising. That looks like possibly the easiest pick on the board.

On 9/10/2021 at 8:31 AM, JonStark said:

I'm going to either win or lose a ton on the Broncos. I just feel like they are better than the Giants on both sides of the ball. 

I've picked the Giants in two separate parlays. The Broncos defense wasn't very good last season particularly against the run, and they allowed 28 ppg, they'll also likely be without Chubb and Von is a year older. Their offense wasn't very good either only averaging 20 ppg. 

The Giants defense ranked 9th in ppg allowed and only allowed 30+ points in 2 games all season while holding opponents to 20 points or less in 9/16 games. They were 10th best at stopping the run and Ryan/Adoree/Bradberry/Peppers is one of the best secondaries in the league. 

Obviously the Giants offense was brutal last season but Saquan and Golladay both playing will be huge for them. I expect it to be a low scoring game either way but the Giants being at home and having the better defense is why I went with them.

 

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17 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Ultimately, what sells this for me is that talent-wise, the Chargers should clearly win in the trenches on D vs. WFT, and their biggest weakness has been massively upgraded (OL) - which is crucial vs. that front 7 of WFT.   If you give Herbert enough time, the secondary is where LAC has a clear path to success.

The thing that worries me about the Chargers is that their offense was pretty hit or miss last season and Ekeler is banged up. Their offensive line looks better on paper but they have 4 new starters including a rookie LT going up against one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. They're also implementing a new scheme on both sides of the ball and traveling to the East Coast for an early game. 

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