Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

Shorter slate this week, my plays:

1.  CIN ML, race to 15/20/25/30 pts.     The way this goes south is if the CHI D can get to Burrow - but if they can't, well I just love the + odds here.  I think this is a pick 'em, TBH, or CIN -1.5 to 2 in a neutral venue.

2.  LAC -3 - the injuries to DAL's DL are a massive problem, because getting pressure on Herbert is their one path to keeping up IMO.

3.  SF -3 - I love what PHI showed me last week, but this is one of those times where the trench edge goes to SF, whereas I backed PHI hard last week vs. ATL.    I also really like that SF stayed on the East Coast (wish DEN had done the same, I can't lay 6 points with that knowledge, given how early EC games for WC teams - week 1 wasn't the case with a 2 week prep time, making it like a bye week - that doesn't apply here).

4. TEN +6.5 - I won't ever bet against Russell Wilson at home for a ML game - but Pete Carroll's conservative run-first game plan when ahead, and TEN's ability to cover spreads as a dog, I don't think changes.  TEN under Tannehill have been awesome as dogs....and disappointing as favorites.  When you give me Carroll's game management tendencies that keeps it close as favorites - sign me up.

 

For player props, ones that interest me right away are Jeudy....damn.   Oh well, here goes:

Goedert over 3.5 catches +110 - no Greenlaw, and the 49ers are probably most susceptible to TE's. 

Goedert over 38.5 yards - see above

Brandin Cooks over 4.5 catches -125, over 60.5 -120 - it's all about garbage time & volume here.  

Mike Williams over 58.5 yards - I think Keenan Allen will eat, but his 79.5 yard prop doesn't leave as much room as Williams.   Especially with Jared Cook just learning the O, Williams is the clear 2nd option at this stage.   That's a number that's far too low IMO. 

I’ll also have TD props on Goedert & Williams as long as 2-TD is at least +160 / +1600. 

As always, bet them as singles, parley if you must for <10 percent.   BOL!

Edited September 18, 2021 by Broncofan

[Malfatron]

I like the jets and jags +6

[N4L]

On 9/16/2021 at 3:36 PM, SmittyBacall said:

I hope you’re right, but that Giants D is stout vs the run. They held Gordon and Javonte to 3.1 YPC before Gordon broke that 70 yarder.

I would also imagine the Giants game-plan tonight is to stack the box and make Heineke beat them with his arm.

70.5 was the total and he had 69 yards. Damn. It looked like it was in the bag when he got his 69th yard and WFT had the ball and the lead right before the two minute warning. Heinicke throws the pick on the next play and Gibson doesn't get another carry. Brutal 

Probably wasn't the right spot for that prop, as you alluded to. Thursday night games for RBs are never a good idea bc you can't guarantee work load. Giants run d is solid but I thought AG would be able to break one big run at some point.

I think I am going to lay off prop bets for now (unless I see one in this thread that is worth following lol) and I'm just going to focus on sides and totals until later in the year

[N4L]

5 hours ago, Malfatron said:

I like the jets and jags +6

Any particular reasons? 

Jets OL is just so bad it's hard for me to back them. Especially with becton gone. Wilson is incredible on the run but I would be worried about negative plays (big sacks and interceptions). BB has an incredible track record against rookies 

I am strongly considering the under in that game, but I'm moderately worried the jets secondary will give up a too many big plays though. Their run d is actually pretty good 

Jags defense is horrendous, might be the worst in the NFL. Hard for me to back them for that reason. 

 

 

[NYRaider]

13 hours ago, agarcia34 said:

Whatever the best line is for the Titans at 9:59 AM Sunday morning. This line should hit +7 which is just a massive overreaction to week 1.

Chargers -3

Panthers +3.5 another massive overacting to week 1 with the Saints performance. Saints aint that good

Like the Bears -2 but not gonna play it 

Todd Downing is such a terrible play caller though, tough to have faith in the Titans. 

Chargers -3 is solid although I'm 50/50 on that one. 

Love the Panthers +3.5 at home. No Latimore/Davenport and the Saints will be without 7 coaches due to covid. 

[NYRaider]

2 hours ago, N4L said:

Any particular reasons? 

Jets OL is just so bad it's hard for me to back them. Especially with becton gone. Wilson is incredible on the run but I would be worried about negative plays (big sacks and interceptions). BB has an incredible track record against rookies 

I am strongly considering the under in that game, but I'm moderately worried the jets secondary will give up a too many big plays though. Their run d is actually pretty good 

Jags defense is horrendous, might be the worst in the NFL. Hard for me to back them for that reason. 

Yeah IIRC, BB is 23-8 against rookie QB's, the Jets couldn't run the ball at all and Wilson got sacked 6 times last week. 

Agreed on Denver as well, their defense looked very good last week and they can run the ball/stop the run. Ton of drama surrounding Jacksonville coming into this game and I don't like Lawerence against the Broncos pass rush or secondary. 

[NYRaider]

9 hours ago, Broncofan said:

3.  SF -3 - I love what PHI showed me last week, but this is one of those times where the trench edge goes to SF, whereas I backed PHI hard last week vs. ATL.  

Will SF have the advantage in the trenches? Dee Ford, Javon Kinlaw, and Arick Armstead are all coming into the game banged up. 

Not to mention Greenlaw/Verrett are both out while it's iffy on if Emmanuel Moseley or Marcel Harris are going to play this week. So the 49ers could be starting two rookie CB's this week. 

[NYRaider]

As the games get closer games that I'm liking: 

Rams (-3.5) at Colts

Vikings at Cardinals (-3.5)

Bills (-3) at Dolphins

49ers at Eagles (+3.5)

Patriots (ML) at Jets

Browns (ML) vs Texans

Broncos (ML) at Jaguars

Buccaneers (ML) vs Falcons

 

[NYRaider]

On 9/16/2021 at 9:48 AM, SBLIII said:

KC -3.5 is free money

KC in their last 13 games ATS is 1-11-1, lol.

[NYRaider]

9 hours ago, Broncofan said:

For player props, ones that interest me right away are Jeudy....damn.   Oh well, here goes:

Goedert over 3.5 catches +110 - no Greenlaw, and the 49ers are probably most susceptible to TE's. 

Goedert over 38.5 yards - see above

Brandin Cooks over 4.5 catches -125, over 60.5 -120 - it's all about garbage time & volume here.  

Mike Williams over 58.5 yards - I think Keenan Allen will eat, but his 79.5 yard prop doesn't leave as much room as Williams.   Especially with Jared Cook just learning the O, Williams is the clear 2nd option at this stage.   That's a number that's far too low IMO. 

I’ll also have TD props on Goedert & Williams as long as 2-TD is at least +160 / +1600. 

As always, bet them as singles, parley if you must for <10 percent.   BOL!

I have Godert in fantasy, Hockenson had a really good game against them last week. 

One other sleeper TE prop bet is Pharaoh Brown, he had 4 catches/5 targets for 67 yards and has been playing with Tyrod Taylor for years. I like the Cooks prop as well, obviously they're different players but Hill lit them up last week. 

[twslhs20]

Had no idea this was a thread. FF has come a long way in 20 years.

Are their any good books or educational tool associate with the math to quantify win results?

[Broncofan]

11 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Shorter slate this week, my plays:

1.  CIN ML, race to 15/20/25/30 pts.     The way this goes south is if the CHI D can get to Burrow - but if they can't, well I just love the + odds here.  I think this is a pick 'em, TBH, or CIN -1.5 to 2 in a neutral venue.

2.  LAC -3 - the injuries to DAL's DL are a massive problem, because getting pressure on Herbert is their one path to keeping up IMO.

3.  SF -3 - I love what PHI showed me last week, but this is one of those times where the trench edge goes to SF, whereas I backed PHI hard last week vs. ATL.    I also really like that SF stayed on the East Coast (wish DEN had done the same, I can't lay 6 points with that knowledge, given how early EC games for WC teams - week 1 wasn't the case with a 2 week prep time, making it like a bye week - that doesn't apply here).

4. TEN +6.5 - I won't ever bet against Russell Wilson at home for a ML game - but Pete Carroll's conservative run-first game plan when ahead, and TEN's ability to cover spreads as a dog, I don't think changes.  TEN under Tannehill have been awesome as dogs....and disappointing as favorites.  When you give me Carroll's game management tendencies that keeps it close as favorites - sign me up.

 

For player props, ones that interest me right away are Jeudy....damn.   Oh well, here goes:

Goedert over 3.5 catches +110 - no Greenlaw, and the 49ers are probably most susceptible to TE's. 

Goedert over 38.5 yards - see above

Brandin Cooks over 4.5 catches -125, over 60.5 -120 - it's all about garbage time & volume here.  

Mike Williams over 58.5 yards - I think Keenan Allen will eat, but his 79.5 yard prop doesn't leave as much room as Williams.   Especially with Jared Cook just learning the O, Williams is the clear 2nd option at this stage.   That's a number that's far too low IMO. 

I’ll also have TD props on Goedert & Williams as long as 2-TD is at least +160 / +1600. 

As always, bet them as singles, parley if you must for <10 percent.   BOL!

Cedric Wilson over 3.5 catches +120 and TD props at +350 / +3300 too much value.   
 

Also on KC -1.5 1H.   

[braylon]

*Disclaimer: I'm a Browns fan.*

Love numerous props in this game, most revolving around Nick Chubb. All on DK Sportsbook

Nick Chubb O 87.5 rushing (-115)

Kareem Hunt O 39.5 rushing (-115)

Nick Chubb O 11.5 receiving (-115)

Donovan Peoples Jones O 29.5 receiving (-115)

David Njoku O 24.5 (-115)

David Johnson O 1.5 recs (-150)

Nick Chubb O 102.5 rushing + receiving (-115)

Nick Chubb O 18.5 longest rush (-115)

[11sanchez11]

Last free bet of the AZ opening ($200). Used it on KC, AZ, Rams, and Bills to all win. Wins ~$900. 

[Broncofan]

7 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said:

Last free bet of the AZ opening ($200). Used it on KC, AZ, Rams, and Bills to all win. Wins ~$900. 

My only concern is MIA has the personnel to take out Diggs.   Allen & co had no adjustment when that happened last week.  Obv there’s lots of time to fix but that specific problem is tough for BUF to overcome IMO.