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Rarely ever do parlays anymore but decided to do a Hail Marry for the heck of it, had a great month this month.

LV ML +215

JAC ML +215

SF -3 -110

CHI -1 -110

MIA +3 +105

Risking $80 to win $5700

I like a lot of underdogs this week. This parlay has like a 2-3% chance of hitting, but since I like so many underdogs this week, decided to gamble a bit. 

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49ers team total over 26 - eagles defense can be had on the edges which is exactly where the niners thrive. Too much talent, too good of an OL, too well coached to stay under 26. Should not be close 

Browns team total over 30.5 - good offense playing a bad defense. Browns should be able to run it down their throats. Thought about the -13 but it feels like a trap. So I'll just take the browns to score a lot of points 

I know I said I was done with prop bets for the time being but Chubb over 88.5 rushing yards feels like a gimmie 

Elijah Mitchell over 57.5 yards rushing is way too low for the starting RB on the 49ers. He has tremendous long speed and has the potential to break a big run. He will have this in the first half imo 

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Still can’t bet on anything until next week without moving money around like El Chapo. But I went 4-1 in here last week and the loss was a ML that covered. So wtf

Steelers(ATS), Cardinals(ATS), Eagles(ML), Bengals(ML), 

Panthers(ML), Chargers(ATS)

Id probably pull the trigger on Jacksonville too just for the **** of it

 

Edited by DontTazeMeBro
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Player props I have:

Sam Darnold O 245, Kyler O 275, Kirk O 270

Zeke O 60, Taylor O 66

Patterson U 22, Davis U 40

Pitts O 49, Higbee O 41

C Kirk O 42, AJG O 40, J Jefferson O 72

Also have SEA/TEN U 54.5. Also have the unders in 49ers/Eagles and Steelers/Raiders. 

Have Carolina +3, Eagles +3, Rams -3.5, Det +10.5

Edited by 11sanchez11
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9 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Rarely ever do parlays anymore but decided to do a Hail Marry for the heck of it, had a great month this month.

LV ML +215

JAC ML +215

SF -3 -110

CHI -1 -110

MIA +3 +105

Risking $80 to win $5700

I like a lot of underdogs this week. This parlay has like a 2-3% chance of hitting, but since I like so many underdogs this week, decided to gamble a bit. 

Dang, this isn’t looking half bad right now except the Dolphins suck hairy balls.

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On 9/13/2021 at 12:27 AM, Broncofan said:

OK with MNF still pending, and a BAL -4.5 play still in the air, a couple of player props and a couple of TD props stand out:

Mark Andrews over 57.5 yards - he's going to get a ton of looks in play action, and with their WR/RB troubles, gotta think 2-3 more targets are coming his way.  A 5-6 catch, 75 yard median projection is what I have.

Brian Edwards over 38.5 yards - he's clearly their #1 WR now, and he got a LOT of looks from Carr in the preseason.  Normally the preseason matters little, but the snaps/targets with the 1st team does give a lean on where the O is headed.  Obviously Darren Waller is option #1, but I think Edwards is their clear #2, and will benefit from the D's attention on Waller.

Tyson Williams over 10.5 yards - receiving work is where he should thrive, but he'll also spell Latavius Murray a lot this week.   He could break this with 1 catch, but 3 grabs wouldn't surprise me.

 

That brings me to 2 TD props, one which is much like Corey Davis-type thinking, and one which is a pure flier, but for which it's more about opportunity:

-James Proche TD, 2+ TD at +650 / +10000 - this one's just about opportunity & value.  Proche could be as high as 3rd if not 2nd on their WR depth chart this week (yes Sammy Watkins is 2nd....for however long he remains healthy).   More importantly, in the RZ, the other guys like Duvernay aren't likely to be the 3rd WR.   So this is a case of the odds outweighing the number of snaps.  Be careful to watch the inactives - if Tylan Wallace is inactive, I'd be very confident in Proche being the 3rd WR there.    For those odds, and his jump ball winning skills (yes he's only 5'11), it's worth a small flier

-Brian Edwards TD, 2TD at +275 / +3300 - similar to the Corey Davis analogy.  I firmly believe Edwards is their #1 WR right now - and more importantly, the #1 WR option in the RZ.   Of course, Waller is the #1 overall option, which is why the pricing is inflated.  But given BAL knows this too, this is a prime opportunity to try and leverage. 


For the TD props, obviously not as much stake as the yardage/catch props - you only need to hit to pay off the others (and hit the 2-TD props, and it's a jackpot night).   BOL!

 

On 9/12/2021 at 11:32 PM, Broncofan said:

 

 

To be completely transparent week 1:

Game picks - 4-2 (NE -2.5 and GB -3 losing), with BAL -4.5 pending (mentioned in other replies).   Didn't post the race to 15/20/25/30 pts - but going forward, if I am taking a dog ML straight up and the implied total is 48 or more, I'll definitely take a stab there since the payouts are so great there.   Won't count in my record, but the beauty of that prop is you don't even need to go 40 percent to make a profit, given the payouts.   PHI hitting all 4 was a massive W, and my big hit of the day...untll the end of the CAR-NYJ game (more on that)...

Player props - 6-4 (Jeudy x2, Allen yards, Corey Davis x2 - lost with Pittman, Taylor & Pitts x2)

TD props - Hit the +250 and +3300 on Corey Davis TD props (and yes, missed on Mims/Arnold, but unlike other props, going 1 for 3 is more than OK if you're getting that kind of juice, and of course, the +3300 makes it a mega win).   2-4, but with a massive ROI.  

Overall, a very good week, which BAL -4.5 could really add a nice finish to.  Then it's on to Week 2....only thing that dampens the day is the Jeudy injury, really hope it's "just" a HAS (which TBH is freaky, when I saw the replay figured it was a break/dislocation for sure). 

 

 

 

On 9/17/2021 at 10:19 PM, Broncofan said:

Shorter slate this week, my plays:

1.  CIN ML, race to 15/20/25/30 pts.     The way this goes south is if the CHI D can get to Burrow - but if they can't, well I just love the + odds here.  I think this is a pick 'em, TBH, or CIN -1.5 to 2 in a neutral venue.

2.  LAC -3 - the injuries to DAL's DL are a massive problem, because getting pressure on Herbert is their one path to keeping up IMO.

3.  SF -3 - I love what PHI showed me last week, but this is one of those times where the trench edge goes to SF, whereas I backed PHI hard last week vs. ATL.    I also really like that SF stayed on the East Coast (wish DEN had done the same, I can't lay 6 points with that knowledge, given how early EC games for WC teams - week 1 wasn't the case with a 2 week prep time, making it like a bye week - that doesn't apply here).

4. TEN +6.5 - I won't ever bet against Russell Wilson at home for a ML game - but Pete Carroll's conservative run-first game plan when ahead, and TEN's ability to cover spreads as a dog, I don't think changes.  TEN under Tannehill have been awesome as dogs....and disappointing as favorites.  When you give me Carroll's game management tendencies that keeps it close as favorites - sign me up.

 

For player props, ones that interest me right away are Jeudy....damn.   Oh well, here goes:

Goedert over 3.5 catches +110 - no Greenlaw, and the 49ers are probably most susceptible to TE's. 

Goedert over 38.5 yards - see above

Brandin Cooks over 4.5 catches -125, over 60.5 -120 - it's all about garbage time & volume here.  

Mike Williams over 58.5 yards - I think Keenan Allen will eat, but his 79.5 yard prop doesn't leave as much room as Williams.   Especially with Jared Cook just learning the O, Williams is the clear 2nd option at this stage.   That's a number that's far too low IMO. 

I’ll also have TD props on Goedert & Williams as long as 2-TD is at least +160 / +1600. 

As always, bet them as singles, parley if you must for <10 percent.   BOL!

 

On 9/18/2021 at 9:27 AM, Broncofan said:

Cedric Wilson over 3.5 catches +120 and TD props at +350 / +3300 too much value.   
 

Also on KC -1.5 1H.   

Week 2's tally minus MNF:

ATS - 3-2 (SF, KC 1H, and TEN win, LAC <ugh at the TD callback> & CIN <just plain miss>),  now 7-4 overall. +5.4U.  RACE underdog bets (race to 15/20/25/30) are 1-1 (week 1 PHI, week 2 L with CIN) - with the + money payouts, +6.2U) - net +11.6U.

Player props - 3-5 (Mike Williams, Cooks x2 wins,  Goederts & Wilson lose x2 each), 8-8 overall, -1.4U overall

TD - 2-1 (I didn't bet Cooks <doh>, but I did bet Williams & Lost with Goedert), 3-5 overall (but hitting with the 2+ TD props Week 1 hitting with Corey Davis at 33-1), +28U overall (and remember, I'm not going for TD props unless it's over +150 1-TD, and I go for the 2-TD props at 16-1 or better, so you can go at a 25-30 percent hit rate and be profitable, and mega-profitable if you hit the 2+ TD props).

Week 2 net before MNF - -5.8U (0-4 with the CIN RACE at 1U each so far the main reason)

Season long balance - +38.0U (PHI Race x4 and Corey Davis 2-TD 33-1 thank you)

Always believe in accountability, week 2 basically -6U so far with the lost races, and the single TD prop hitting at just +140.    But Week 1's bonanza keeps me well in the black.

 

 

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For tonight:

A-Rod over 2.5 TD -105

Goff over 1.5 TD - +130 (wow - not about Goff's ability, this is about gamescript and pace)

Adams over 84.5 -120

MVS over 38.5 -110

Hockenson over 4.5 catches, over 58.5 yards

Swift over 28.5 yards

TD prop - only jackpot type play is Trinity Benson at 4-1 single TD, and 50-1 2+ TD's.   Ton of snaps, no Tyrell Williams, and those odds are just too high for the actual opportunity.  

All about player props - DET plays with a ton of pace, so going over makes too much sense.   BOL!

 

Edited by Broncofan
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OK for week 3, there are 3 plays I see where I think the line moves so hard it's better to buy in now:

WFT +9.0 @ BUF - yes, the Bills smashed Mia.  And yes, no Fitzmagic for BUF.  But they get 10 days, and more importantly, BUF's biggest problem fits well with what WFT does best - that front 7 of WFT vs. BUF's OL, and lack of RB/TE play.   On the flip side, the WFT run game, and Logan Thomas, can help neutralize the smothering secondary for BUF's D.   I'm not calling for a WFT win, but 9 pts is just way too high.

LAC +6.5 @ KC - carbon copy reasoning for the game here.   I get it's at KC.  I get that Mahomes & co. will be out for blood.   And if Kenneth Murray is out next week, it will make me more nervous.  But again, LAC plays KC hard, they know each other, and KC's biggest issue is with OL, and that LAC D did a great job on DAL's O after struggling in the 1Q.     Again, I don't even need to call for a LAC W (although I'm tempted, and I might just take the races for the extra + money value), but taking that many points, I'll do that any day.

ARI -7 @ JAX - WC teams going for early games does worry me - but man, that Jags team is in disarray.   And while the Cards were fortunate to win vs. Minny yesterday - the talent gap is way too high, the matchups are bad (JAX OL vs. ARI pass rush, Kyler & the WR's vs. JAX D), and man, Urban Meyer looks overmatched coaching at the NFL level.   Put another way - I don't think the Broncos are a better team than the Cards, and they pose the same matchup problems (or even worse with Kyler vs. Teddy B) for JAX.   The line's already moving to 7.5, I'd tease it to keep it to -7 up to -140.

 

There will be more, but locking those 3 so I can get the better line (if I'm wrong, I'm wrong there, but thinking these lines will be get higher as the week goes on.   I'll even do a 4-team parley with A-Rod over 2.5 TD tonight to get a nice 11-1 play.  BOL!

Edited by Broncofan
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5 minutes ago, Forge said:

So a guy made a huge parlay and has hit them all but Detroit. Wins 730k from $25 wager if Detroit wins. 

What would you sell that off at if you were him? Or would you let it ride? 

To get the same bet off one ML, you'd have to bet like $150,000. So for increased odds, let's say you could get $120,000 for it. You just turned $25 into a guaranteed 125K, or, by odds like a 15% chance of getting 730K.

I'm probably taking the 125K

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2 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

To get the same bet off one ML, you'd have to bet like $150,000. So for increased odds, let's say you could get $120,000 for it. You just turned $25 into a guaranteed 125K, or, by odds like a 15% chance of getting 730K.

I'm probably taking the 125K

I was close to your thinking, but a little lower. I thought around 110k I'd do. 

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