MikeT14 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Forge said: I was close to your thinking, but a little lower. I thought around 110k I'd do. That's fair. It's worth whatever someone will pay. I look at prop swap sometimes, but can never remember how big the cut is. Regardless, I am fairly confident I'd go all the way down to whatever the cashout offer might be lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Just now, MikeT14 said: That's fair. It's worth whatever someone will pay. I look at prop swap sometimes, but can never remember how big the cut is. Regardless, I am fairly confident I'd go all the way down to whatever the cashout offer might be lol. Like if that's with Barstool or FanDuel or whomever, what's it worth to them to get out now without the risk? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, MikeT14 said: To get the same bet off one ML, you'd have to bet like $150,000. So for increased odds, let's say you could get $120,000 for it. You just turned $25 into a guaranteed 125K, or, by odds like a 15% chance of getting 730K. I'm probably taking the 125K 3 minutes ago, Forge said: I was close to your thinking, but a little lower. I thought around 110k I'd do. As someone in the finance industry who doesnt bet, my first thought is - can you diversify the risk? IE find a few other people that would be willing to give you ~$25-50k at the chance of winning ~$100k if the lions win? That way you can secure some funds but not give up all your winnings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Matts4313 said: As someone in the finance industry who doesnt bet, my first thought is - can you diversify the risk? IE find a few other people that would be willing to give you ~$25-50k at the chance of winning ~$100k if the lions win? That way you can secure some funds but not give up all your winnings. Sure, that might be one way to do it. Find enough people to take on ... let's say ... +500 odds maybe (line is +450 now). It's under the same umbrella as cashing out I think though. But it would be a fun night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Just now, Matts4313 said: @resilient part 2 was in the same spot, would have won a bunch if the Chiefs won this is why @Broncofan and I are constantly reminding everyone in this thread to play them all straight, and only do parlays for <10% of your total outlay 13 minutes ago, Forge said: So a guy made a huge parlay and has hit them all but Detroit. Wins 730k from $25 wager if Detroit wins. What would you sell that off at if you were him? Or would you let it ride? I guess its DET ML?? wow, imagine doing a huge parlay and not taking +12 when its right there would be such an easier hedge... could play GB ML and -12 today and potentially catch a nice middle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Matts4313 said: As someone in the finance industry who doesnt bet, my first thought is - can you diversify the risk? IE find a few other people that would be willing to give you ~$25-50k at the chance of winning ~$100k if the lions win? That way you can secure some funds but not give up all your winnings. Absolutely. You'd have to give better odds than the current money line, but you could sell a percentage of the profit for a certain amount which you would then pocket so you at least have that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: would have won a bunch if the Chiefs won 3 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: As someone in the finance industry who doesnt bet pick one you hypocrite Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 1 minute ago, MikeT14 said: Sure, that might be one way to do it. Find enough people to take on ... let's say ... +500 odds maybe (line is +450 now). It's under the same umbrella as cashing out I think though. But it would be a fun night. 1 minute ago, Forge said: Absolutely. You'd have to give better odds than the current money line, but you could sell a percentage of the profit for a certain amount which you would then pocket so you at least have that You guys want to break down whats a money line and how +500 odds translates? Thats 500% return, right? So bet $100, get $500? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 1 minute ago, N4L said: pick one you hypocrite Reread what I said friendo. It wasnt me who bet, it was another Cowboys poster, haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: You guys want to break down whats a money line and how +500 odds translates? Thats 500% return, right? So bet $100, get $500? You bet 100 win 500 and get your hundred back. Just so it’s very clear. Some sites include the bet amount in the return some don’t. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Just now, Broncofan said: You bet 100 win 500 and get your hundred back. Just so it’s very clear. Some sites include the bet amount in the return some don’t. Got it. Some places you bet $100 and your return will be $0 or $600 at other it will be $0 or $500. How do you know which is which? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 If I wanted to learn by experimentation, could I open an account somewhere put in some cash and then just rely on you all to explain how it all works? I could drop some cash in and it could be our community play fund. lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: You guys want to break down whats a money line and how +500 odds translates? Thats 500% return, right? So bet $100, get $500? Yes. ML is +450ish for the vegas lines right now. So bet $100 win $450. You'd sweeten that a little bit to the math you alluded to (some might buy on that). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Just now, Matts4313 said: If I wanted to learn by experimentation, could I open an account somewhere put in some cash and then just rely on you all to explain how it all works? I could drop some cash in and it could be our community play fund. lol Are you in Texas? I forgot. Wasn't sure if it was legal there yet or not. Otherwise your best bet is Bovada or Betnow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 23 minutes ago, MikeT14 said: To get the same bet off one ML, you'd have to bet like $150,000. So for increased odds, let's say you could get $120,000 for it. You just turned $25 into a guaranteed 125K, or, by odds like a 15% chance of getting 730K. I'm probably taking the 125K No doubt about it, and I sleep like a baby even if Detroit wins. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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