Weekly Bets Thread

[agarcia34]

Week 3 betting lines look disgusting 6 games with a spread of +7 or more.

The only game I really like is Pats -3. Said it last week Saints are not that good and took advantage of a bad line on Sunday with Panthers +3.5. 

Edited September 20, 2021 by agarcia34

[Broncofan]

21 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

 

 

Week 2's tally minus MNF:

ATS - 3-2 (SF, KC 1H, and TEN win, LAC <ugh at the TD callback> & CIN <just plain miss>),  now 7-4 overall. +5.4U.  RACE underdog bets (race to 15/20/25/30) are 1-1 (week 1 PHI, week 2 L with CIN) - with the + money payouts, +6.2U) - net +11.6U.

Player props - 3-5 (Mike Williams, Cooks x2 wins,  Goederts & Wilson lose x2 each), 8-8 overall, -1.4U overall

TD - 2-1 (I didn't bet Cooks <doh>, but I did bet Williams & Lost with Goedert), 3-5 overall (but hitting with the 2+ TD props Week 1 hitting with Corey Davis at 33-1), +28U overall (and remember, I'm not going for TD props unless it's over +150 1-TD, and I go for the 2-TD props at 16-1 or better, so you can go at a 25-30 percent hit rate and be profitable, and mega-profitable if you hit the 2+ TD props).

Week 2 net before MNF - -5.8U (0-4 with the CIN RACE at 1U each so far the main reason)

Season long balance - +38.0U (PHI Race x4 and Corey Davis 2-TD 33-1 thank you)

Always believe in accountability, week 2 basically -6U so far with the lost races, and the single TD prop hitting at just +140.    But Week 1's bonanza keeps me well in the black.

 

 

------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

For tonight:

A-Rod over 2.5 TD -105

Goff over 1.5 TD - +130 (wow - not about Goff's ability, this is about gamescript and pace)

Adams over 84.5 -120

MVS over 38.5 -110

Hockenson over 4.5 catches, over 58.5 yards

Swift over 28.5 yards

TD prop - only jackpot type play is Trinity Benson at 4-1 single TD, and 50-1 2+ TD's.   Ton of snaps, no Tyrell Williams, and those odds are just too high for the actual opportunity.  

All about player props - DET plays with a ton of pace, so going over makes too much sense.   BOL!

 

6-1 in player props and 0-1 on TD props (1U loss).   Nice 4.2U profit 

Season Week 1-2 Final Tally: 

ATS - 7-4, 1-1 RACE to 15/20/25/30, net +11.6U 

Player props - 14-9, +3.8U.  

TD - 3-6, but +3300 2-TD Corey Davis makes this +26.8U so far.  
 

Net balance - +42.2U profit so far.  

Edited September 21, 2021 by Broncofan

[Matts4313]

10 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

6-1 in player props and 0-1 on TD props (1U loss).   Nice 4.2U profit 

Week 2 Final Tally: 

ATS - 7-4, 1-1 RACE to 15/20/25/30, net +11.6U 

Player props - 14-9, +3.8U.  

TD - 3-6, but +3300 2-TD Corey Davis makes this +26.8U so far.  
 

Net balance - +42.2U profit so far.  

If you get bored and want to translate whatever this means into english, I would be interested to follow along. 

[Malfatron]

25 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

If you get bored and want to translate whatever this means into english, I would be interested to follow along. 

something about corey davis

[NYRaider]

6 hours ago, agarcia34 said:

Week 3 betting lines look disgusting 6 games with a spread of +7 or more.

The only game I really like is Pats -3. Said it last week Saints are not that good and took advantage of a bad line on Sunday with Panthers +3.5. 

I have to stop throwing so many damn games on one slip. The spreads are bad this week.

Some of the games I like: 

• Broncos (ML) vs Jets

• Cardinals (ML) vs Jaguars

• Seahawks (-1) at Vikings

• Panthers (ML) at Texans

Some of the games I'm considering betting on:

• Rams (-1) vs Buccaneers 

• Bills (ML) vs WFT

• Saints (+3) at Patriots

• Titans (ML) vs Colts

The Eagles at Cowboys game on MNF is tough especially after Hursts lackluster performance. The Raiders vs Dolphins game is tough with all of the Raiders injuries. The Steelers vs Bengals game is tough with all of the Steelers defensive injuries and shakey OL. And the Giants/Falcons game could really go either way.

[agarcia34]

18 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

I have to stop throwing so many damn games on one slip. The spreads are bad this week.

Some of the games I like: 

• Broncos (ML) vs Jets

• Cardinals (ML) vs Jaguars

• Seahawks (-1) at Vikings

• Panthers (ML) at Texans

Some of the games I'm considering betting on:

• Rams (-1) vs Buccaneers 

• Bills (ML) vs WFT

• Saints (+3) at Patriots

• Titans (ML) vs Colts

The Eagles at Cowboys game on MNF is tough especially after Hursts lackluster performance. The Raiders vs Dolphins game is tough with all of the Raiders injuries. The Steelers vs Bengals game is tough with all of the Steelers defensive injuries and shakey OL. And the Giants/Falcons game could really go either way.

You need to stop doing parlays. Easily the biggest money waste in sports betting. With that being said if you’re gonna do that ML parlay I wouldn’t add Seattle. Not worth the stress it could cause. 
 

AZ,Denver and Panthers give you a -114 so it’s fine like that if you want to add another team might as well add the Ravens. That would push it to +128 

[NYRaider]

7 minutes ago, agarcia34 said:

You need to stop doing parlays. Easily the biggest money waste in sports betting. With that being said if you’re gonna do that ML parlay I wouldn’t add Seattle. Not worth the stress it could cause. 
 

AZ,Denver and Panthers give you a -114 so it’s fine like that if you want to add another team might as well add the Ravens. That would push it to +128 

Yeah I'm definitely limiting my # of teams on tickets, it's way too hard. 

I think the Cardinals and Panthers can both cover -7.5, thoughts? Jaguars have lost both games to much worse offensive teams by 10+ points. And the Panthers have the best defense in the league through the first two weeks playing against the Texans on a short week with Davis Mills making his first start. 

If Wentz isn't playing I like the Titans (ML) at home against Jacob Eason. 

Also the Chiefs are like 1-13-1 ATS in their last 15 games and their defense hasn't looked that impressive while the Chargers defense has been pretty damn good so far this year, thoughts on Chargers (+6.5)?

And I know you said you didn't like the Saints this week, but do you really think they lay another egg against a rookie QB?

[NYRaider]

Packers (+3.5) at 49ers is another one I might bet on. (Not in a parlay) 

[NYRaider]

FWIW in week 3's ESPN pool pick 'em;

Panthers (90%) at Texans (10%)

WFT (5%) at Bills (95%)

Bears (8%) at Browns (92%)

Ravens (97%) at Lions (3%)

Colts (10%) at Titans (90%)

Chargers (5%) at Chiefs (95%)

Saints (50%) at Patriots (50%)

Falcons (41%) at Giants (59%)

Bengals (12%) at Steelers (88%)

Cardinals (97%) at Jaguars (3%)

Jets (5%) at Broncos (95%)

Dolphins (25%) at Raiders (75%)

Buccaneers (65%) at Rams (35%)

Seahawks (84%) at Vikings (16%)

Packers (49%) at 49ers (51%)

Eagles (17%) at Cowboys (83%) 

[agarcia34]

2 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Yeah I'm definitely limiting my # of teams on tickets, it's way too hard. 

I think the Cardinals and Panthers can both cover -7.5, thoughts? Jaguars have lost both games to much worse offensive teams by 10+ points. And the Panthers have the best defense in the league through the first two weeks playing against the Texans on a short week with Davis Mills making his first start. 

If Wentz isn't playing I like the Titans (ML) at home against Jacob Eason. 

Also the Chiefs are like 1-13-1 ATS in their last 15 games and their defense hasn't looked that impressive while the Chargers defense has been pretty damn good so far this year, thoughts on Chargers (+6.5)?

And I know you said you didn't like the Saints this week, but do you really think they lay another egg against a rookie QB?

I don’t view the Saints very highly. This is a team without any real threats at WR or TE. 259 yards total passing in two games. Pats will put all there focus on Kamara. Winston vs a Belichick defense and I’ll lay the -3 at even odds every day.
 

I could be wrong but I’ll take my chances  

[NYRaider]

Week 1 I went 8/16 with my misses being the Bills, Vikings, WFT, Jaguars, Patriots, Packers, Giants, and Ravens.

Last week I went 12/16 with my misses being the Seahawks, Bengals, Eagles, and Giants. 

[NYRaider]

5 minutes ago, agarcia34 said:

I don’t view the Saints very highly. This is a team without any real threats at WR or TE. 259 yards total passing in two games. Pats will put all there focus on Kamara. Winston vs a Belichick defense and I’ll lay the -3 at even odds every day.
 

I could be wrong but I’ll take my chances  

Yeah I get you, that ones just tough for me because the Saints have been able to completely shut down the run in their first two games. But I could also see Winston turning the ball over a few times and putting them in bad spots. 

[agarcia34]

3 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Yeah I get you, that ones just tough for me because the Saints have been able to completely shut down the run in their first two games. But I could also see Winston turning the ball over a few times and putting them in bad spots. 

Saints have a good defense, but think about this. They been away from their homes for 3 weeks now living in a hotel with their families. Not a comfortable thing to do. They’re dealing with that COVID stuff with their coaching staff. Most should be back for the Pats game if I’m not mistaking but that’s another thing to deal with. A lot going on with that team. 
 

They stop the run very well and play good defense but unless they score on defense how are they scoring. You trusting Winston and a WR core of Humphrey, Hogan, Johnson, Harris. 
 

Scoring on the Saints won’t be easy esprit they get back Lattimore but the Pats got some weapons on offense they can go to in the passing game. 

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, agarcia34 said:

They stop the run very well and play good defense but unless they score on defense how are they scoring. You trusting Winston and a WR core of Humphrey, Hogan, Johnson, Harris. 

Scoring on the Saints won’t be easy esprit they get back Lattimore but the Pats got some weapons on offense they can go to in the passing game. 

Yeah still pretty unbelievable that they only have 450 yards through 2 games. 

[SaveOurSonics]

On 9/16/2021 at 2:21 PM, SaveOurSonics said:

Funny money on a 6-team 7.5-point teaser 

Bengals +10 vBears
Titans +13 vSeahawks
Steelers +2 vRaiders
Rams +3.5 vColts
Cowboys +10.5 vChargers
Chiefs +4 vRavens

+475

Shame to see this one go down with the Steelers coming out flat at home. 

 

Managed to hit on Hockenson o5.5 catches @ +120 but missed on both MVS o41.5 yards and MVS o2.5 catches to go down on the day. 

That was it for me this weekend with props. Planning on diving back in this week.