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On 9/20/2021 at 11:21 PM, Broncofan said:

6-1 in player props and 0-1 on TD props (1U loss).   Nice 4.2U profit 


Season Week 1-2 Final Tally: 

ATS - 7-4, 1-1 RACE to 15/20/25/30, net +11.6U 

Player props - 14-9, +3.8U.  

TD - 3-6, but +3300 2-TD Corey Davis makes this +26.8U so far.  
 

Net balance - +42.2U profit so far.  

Updated Record Post TNF Week 3:

ATS - 8-4, 1-1 RACE to 15/20/25/30, net +12.4U

Player props - 16-11, +4.0U

TD - 3-9, but with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis Week 1, makes this +25.2U so far

Net balance:  +41.6U profit so far

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Weird formatting, but will add MIN race to 15/20/25/30 for the Sun/Mon slate, which with CAR -7 win, now stands at:

ARI -7 @ JAX -125

WFT +9 @ BUF -105

LAC +6.5 @ KC -105

MIN RACE to 20/25/30 vs. SEA

PHI +4 @ DAL

 

On 9/20/2021 at 12:57 PM, Broncofan said:

OK for week 3, there are 3 plays I see where I think the line moves so hard it's better to buy in now:

WFT +9.0 @ BUF - yes, the Bills smashed Mia.  And yes, no Fitzmagic for BUF.  But they get 10 days, and more importantly, BUF's biggest problem fits well with what WFT does best - that front 7 of WFT vs. BUF's OL, and lack of RB/TE play.   On the flip side, the WFT run game, and Logan Thomas, can help neutralize the smothering secondary for BUF's D.   I'm not calling for a WFT win, but 9 pts is just way too high.

LAC +6.5 @ KC - carbon copy reasoning for the game here.   I get it's at KC.  I get that Mahomes & co. will be out for blood.   And if Kenneth Murray is out next week, it will make me more nervous.  But again, LAC plays KC hard, they know each other, and KC's biggest issue is with OL, and that LAC D did a great job on DAL's O after struggling in the 1Q.     Again, I don't even need to call for a LAC W (although I'm tempted, and I might just take the races for the extra + money value), but taking that many points, I'll do that any day.

ARI -7 @ JAX - WC teams going for early games does worry me - but man, that Jags team is in disarray.   And while the Cards were fortunate to win vs. Minny yesterday - the talent gap is way too high, the matchups are bad (JAX OL vs. ARI pass rush, Kyler & the WR's vs. JAX D), and man, Urban Meyer looks overmatched coaching at the NFL level.   Put another way - I don't think the Broncos are a better team than the Cards, and they pose the same matchup problems (or even worse with Kyler vs. Teddy B) for JAX.   The line's already moving to 7.5, I'd tease it to keep it to -7 up to -140.

 

There will be more, but locking those 3 so I can get the better line (if I'm wrong, I'm wrong there, but thinking these lines will be get higher as the week goes on.   I'll even do a 4-team parley with A-Rod over 2.5 TD tonight to get a nice 11-1 play.  BOL!

On 9/21/2021 at 11:15 AM, Broncofan said:

So far the lines haven't moved, but I'm still firmly on all 3 plays above.   Adding 2 more:

CAR -7 -125 @HOU - For TNF, I'm going to tease a half-point off the spread.  No Tyrod Taylor, short week, and man, the CAR D looks amazing.    Not sure CAR is this good given NO didn't have their coaches and played on the road, and it's a short week - but that also means HOU can't get much time in for Davis Mills, either.v

PHI +4 @DAL - I know, I know, DAL has played PHI well - but the trench matchup IMO swings to PHI with all the injuries to the DAL DL, and the front 4 of PHI will give DAL everything they can handle.  I'm also very down on DAL's game management and coaching - stuff like McCarthy playing for a 55-yard FG and letting 25 secs run off without gaining more yardage - well, can't back a team as a favorite if the matchups are that close.    McCarthy's the type of coach who'll play for the winning FG rather than go for the jugular with a TD, so if you give me 4 pts, I'll take the other side.    For now, I'm just taking the points, as I could see this be tied / PHI up by 1-2 with DAL driving type game, but if Sunday goes well, this is the spot where I'd consider the RACE to 15/20/25/30 (if the early games go really well, might do LAC vs. KC too, but that's less likely).

The way CAR could fail to cover - lose the TO game by 2 or more.  Otherwise, I'm pretty confident, putting 2U down.

Team ATS picks so far for Week 3:

CAR -7 @HOU TNF -125

ARI - 7 @JAX -125 

LAC +6.5 @KC -105 

WFT +9.0 @BUF -105

PHI +4.0 @DAL -110, if Sunday goes well likely consider Race to 15/20/25/30

 

No player props out yet, so those are my plays so far for Week 3.

Edited by Broncofan
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1 hour ago, N4L said:

I said they were not good and that Carolina should move the ball in the air. Is Houston's defense good?? Darnold threw for over 300 yards. 

You absolutely were victory lapping at halftime, and Carolina was very close to hitting their over team total, which I played for about 25% of my Carolina -7 and -8 bets. Not to mention cmc got hurt pretty early in this game 

I wasn't doing victory laps at half time, I didn't care either way. Houston's defense isn't great but they're not terrible either, did Darnold passing for 300 yards result in points? The Panthers finished with 24 and they had two drives where they got inside the 10 yard line but only scored 3 points. The Panthers offense hasn't been that great this season especially considering their defense has put them in favorable spots, they've only scored 19, 26, and 24 in their first 3 games. 

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9 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

I wasn't doing victory laps at half time, I didn't care either way. Houston's defense isn't great but they're not terrible either, did Darnold passing for 300 yards result in points? The Panthers finished with 24 and they had two drives where they got inside the 10 yard line but only scored 3 points. The Panthers offense hasn't been that great this season especially considering their defense has put them in favorable spots, they've only scored 19, 26, and 24 in their first 3 games. 

Last post and then I am done responding to you

you made a "I told you so" post at halftime. This is an irrefutable fact. "I tried to warn you" = "I told you so". The game wasnt over and I suggested you were new to sports betting for saying "I told you so" at halftime. The more you post 20 picks with zero reasoning and 5 consecutive posts in this thread, the more I believe it to be a true statement.  

The bolded is exactly why I would make the bet again. Did you miss the part about how CMC got hurt in the first quarter?? Do you think that maybe, just maybe, the panthers score more than 3 points in said two drives if they have - the best RB in the NFL - on the field?? 

To the underlined - yes, it resulted in enough points to cover. Darnold clearly won them the game through the air. Do you deny it? You and SBLIII cearly had/favored houston and the points. Imagine betting on houston and then making "I told you so" posts when the game isnt over. (inb4 bUt i dIdNt bEt oN hOuStOn)

Sure, Lovie had Houston "playing hard" but ultimately there was a large talent gap between the CAR O and HOU D. I knew that TOP would be heavily slanted towards the Panthers, and that this would result in some late points. If houston somehow was able to score 20+, it would push the pace a little bit and encourage the panthers to try and score more, so this bet was a means in which I could win a 27-24 type of game without betting the actual over, considering I wanted no part of houstons offense tonight.  

The bet was made as part of a coherent strategy which was intended to decrease the likelihood of losing outcomes.  Essentially a hedge with the possibility of winning both bets. 

Dont @ me 

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I really like the trevor lawrence over rush yards. Its only 12 yards, which is a very short number. He hasnt ran very much the first two weeks but he had a bunch of 50+ yard touchdown runs in college. Dude can move. 

Kirk cousins had two really long runs where the cardinal defense broke contain and he went for 35 yards. Tanny had 17 yards rushing against the cards week 1. 

The jags wont be able to keep up with the cardinals and I think the game will get out of hand. This should mean some softer coverage/blitzes where TL is inclined to scramble and run up field. 

Sacks dont count towards this number, which is great. 

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2 hours ago, N4L said:

you made a "I told you so" post at halftime. This is an irrefutable fact. "I tried to warn you" = "I told you so". The game wasnt over and I suggested you were new to sports betting for saying "I told you so" at halftime. The more you post 20 picks with zero reasoning and 5 consecutive posts in this thread, the more I believe it to be a true statement.   

Sorry mr.bookie. And I did give my reasoning, you said the Texans defense sucked and would give up a ton of huge plays through the air. Darnold finished with 0 passing TD, Baker only had 1 passing TD, Lawerence had 3 passing TD's but 2 came in garbage time. I said the Panthers should hit the over of 27 points IF Davis Mills turns the ball over, which didn't happen. The Panthers haven't scored 27 points in any of their 3 games this season even with McCaffery playing in the first two games. 

I went 11-5 ATS in my individual game picks, my only losses were the Cardinals (-3.5), Seahawks (-6), Bengals (+1), Rams (-3.5), and Philadelphia (+3). Not a bad week for a novice sports bettor, lol. 

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Season picks so far

Week 1: 8-4 ML, 1-3 ATS (9-7 overall)

Week 2: 11-5 ATS 

Week 3 Picks (let's see how new I am to sports betting, lol):

Panthers (-7.5) at Houston: 👍

Cardinals (-7.5) at Jaguars 

Ravens (ML) at Lions

Bengals (+4.5) at Steelers

Bills (ML) vs WFT

Chargers (+7) at Chiefs

Falcons (+3) at Giants

Titans (-5.5) vs Colts

Saints (+3) at Patriots

Raiders (ML) vs Dolphins

Rams (+1.5) vs Buccaneers

Seahawks (-1.5) at Vikings

Packers (+3) at 49ers

Eagles (+4) at Cowboys 

 

 

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FWIW, everyone is going to whiff on bets.   The best bettors are literally going to be wrong 40 percent of the time over an entire season.  It's tough for a reason.    The key is to learn from the misses, if there's a lesson to be learned, and move forward.

Having said all of that - anyone who thinks HOU +7, +8, was a good bet, with Davis Mills at QB - has to revisit that thinking today.   It only had a chance of covering because CMC went down.    That's not a probability that bettors can bank on, it's literally hindsight.    There are always going to be fluke plays, or random variation (the refs calling false start instead of offsides that led to 4th and 1 instead of being 1st down, etc).   And yes, even injuries will happen. 

Ppl will sometimes lose a bet with great reasoning, and get unlucky.   Sometimes we'll win with iffy reasoning, and get lucky, too.

HOU +8 bettors can't really say they got unlucky, or it was a good process.   CAR dominated that game, and it wasn't as close talent/coaching wise as the final score, it was literally the 90th percentile outcome for HOU - and still lost.   Unless ppl are starting to be able to claim injury clairvoyance.   And there's no shame in saying that, either.   Again, the best bettors are going to be wrong 40 percent of the time over the long run.    But the winning bettors also learn from the games.   

I don't think there's a lot to conclude other than it's going to have to be a much worse pass rush D HOU is facing if we think they're going to score points with Mills as QB.  I would conversely say Brandin Cooks is QB proof - just stay away from the concussions, man, and profit should ensue if the line's going to be 5.5/6.5 catches and 65-70 yards.

On the CAR side, DJ Moore is going to be money until D's try to take him away, in single coverage and zone he's made the leap into WR1 (top 12) territory.   On the flip side, Dan Arnold is losing snaps to other guys like Tremble - going to fade off that until he shows more.    A sneaky future prop to look at will be the TD & yardage props for Royce Freeman - I think he showed a ton more pop than Hubbard, and his prowess in pass blocking automatically is going to give him some more PT.   Something to leverage for next week.

Edited by Broncofan
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30 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Having said all of that - anyone who thinks HOU +7, +8, was a good bet, with Davis Mills at QB - has to revisit that thinking today.   It only had a chance of covering because CMC went down.    That's not a probability that bettors can bank on, it's literally hindsight.    There are always going to be fluke plays, or random variation (the refs calling false start instead of offsides that led to 4th and 1 instead of being 1st down, etc).   And yes, even injuries will happen. 

Houston (+7) or (+8) was a terrible bet with Davis Mills making his first NFL start on a short week against a very good Panthers defense. Especially considering that he only started like 11 games in college. Our disagreement was regarding Carolina (O/U 27) because he said Houston's defense was terrible. 

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34 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Houston (+7) or (+8) was a terrible bet with Davis Mills making his first NFL start on a short week against a very good Panthers defense. Especially considering that he only started like 11 games in college. Our disagreement was regarding Carolina (O/U 27) because he said Houston's defense was terrible. 

Based on what we saw last night, if we played 100 games, CAR hits the O27 in about 75-80 percent of the games - and most of the 20-25 percent unders are where either CMC / Moore get hurt.    That's obviously not bankable nor predictable.  The HOU O was so bad, barring a good D, HOU giving up 24 was on the low end.   They lost a 4th down gamble at the HOU 13 with CMC not in the game, and then with Moore out of the game, backed out of a 4th and 1 gamble inside the 10.   28+ pts is a pretty likely outcome with a healthy CAR team.   The 24-9 score, and 24 pts by CAR were both on the lowest end of likely outcomes, based on what we know now.

Again, sometimes bets come through because the reasoning was spot on, and sometimes fortune smiles our way (just like how we lose with bad assessments, or bad beats with very sound reasoning).   This was a case of the latter, which is fine.   Honestly, there's no reason to get so amped about this either way.  I've got no stake in that bet, just my 2 cents.

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I was sort of joking with Davis Mills as he was completely horrible in the preseason. If I had to bet on it, it would have been Carolina but really them being over 7 I stayed away from the game.

There are a couple of games I'm staying away from this weekend. Those being LAR-TB, MIN-SEA, NE-NO and some others. The MIN-SEA game to me smells like a trap game. I don't know what it is but I would not be shocked by Minnesota winning big. The LV vs Miami game is another trap game I think. Not betting on it.

The bets I have made

LAC +7

ARI -7

WFT +9

CIN ML

DEN -10

SF -3

PHI +4

 

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35 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Based on what we saw last night, if we played 100 games, CAR hits the O27 in about 75-80 percent of the games - and most of the 20-25 percent unders are where either CMC / Moore get hurt.    That's obviously not bankable nor predictable.  The HOU O was so bad, barring a good D, HOU giving up 24 was on the low end.   They lost a 4th down gamble at the HOU 13 with CMC not in the game, and then with Moore out of the game, backed out of a 4th and 1 gamble inside the 10.   28+ pts is a pretty likely outcome with a healthy CAR team.   The 24-9 score, and 24 pts by CAR were both on the lowest end of likely outcomes, based on what we know now.

Again, sometimes bets come through because the reasoning was spot on, and sometimes fortune smiles our way (just like how we lose with bad assessments, or bad beats with very sound reasoning).   This was a case of the latter, which is fine.   Honestly, there's no reason to get so amped about this either way.  I've got no stake in that bet, just my 2 cents.

Carolina hasn't scored 27 points in any of their 3 games this season. Including their week two matchup where their defense completely shut down the Saints and gave them great field position throughout the game. 

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11 minutes ago, SBLIII said:

I was sort of joking with Davis Mills as he was completely horrible in the preseason. If I had to bet on it, it would have been Carolina but really them being over 7 I stayed away from the game.

There are a couple of games I'm staying away from this weekend. Those being LAR-TB, MIN-SEA, NE-NO and some others. The MIN-SEA game to me smells like a trap game. I don't know what it is but I would not be shocked by Minnesota winning big. The LV vs Miami game is another trap game I think. Not betting on it.

The bets I have made

LAC +7

ARI -7

WFT +9

CIN ML

DEN -10

SF -3

PHI +4

Yeah I stayed away from the Raiders/Dolphins game as well, we should win but the Raiders under Gruden have been so up and down. We lost on the last play against the Chiefs in a shootout and then lost 43-6 to Atlanta the following week. We're likely going to be without a bunch of key starters as well. 

I like the Chargers +7 a lot this week. The Chiefs defense has gotten absolutely torched and Herbert is overdue for some TD's this week. Their defense has looked pretty good this year as well under Staley, interested to see how they go after Mahomes after they did an excellent job against Dak last week. 

Cincinnati is a game I've gone back and forth on. The Steelers may be without Big Ben, Diontae Johnson and a few other key defensive starters. My biggest concern is the Bengals OL, they've been abysmal this year. Burrow has been sacked 5 times in both of their games and the pressure seemed to be bothering him last week with his 3 interceptions. I don't think Tee Higgins is going to play either. 

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3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

FWIW, everyone is going to whiff on bets.   The best bettors are literally going to be wrong 40 percent of the time over an entire season.  It's tough for a reason.    The key is to learn from the misses, if there's a lesson to be learned, and move forward.

Having said all of that - anyone who thinks HOU +7, +8, was a good bet, with Davis Mills at QB - has to revisit that thinking today.   It only had a chance of covering because CMC went down.    That's not a probability that bettors can bank on, it's literally hindsight.    There are always going to be fluke plays, or random variation (the refs calling false start instead of offsides that led to 4th and 1 instead of being 1st down, etc).   And yes, even injuries will happen. 

Ppl will sometimes lose a bet with great reasoning, and get unlucky.   Sometimes we'll win with iffy reasoning, and get lucky, too.

HOU +8 bettors can't really say they got unlucky, or it was a good process.   CAR dominated that game, and it wasn't as close talent/coaching wise as the final score, it was literally the 90th percentile outcome for HOU - and still lost.   Unless ppl are starting to be able to claim injury clairvoyance.   And there's no shame in saying that, either.   Again, the best bettors are going to be wrong 40 percent of the time over the long run.    But the winning bettors also learn from the games.   

I don't think there's a lot to conclude other than it's going to have to be a much worse pass rush D HOU is facing if we think they're going to score points with Mills as QB.  I would conversely say Brandin Cooks is QB proof - just stay away from the concussions, man, and profit should ensue if the line's going to be 5.5/6.5 catches and 65-70 yards.

On the CAR side, DJ Moore is going to be money until D's try to take him away, in single coverage and zone he's made the leap into WR1 (top 12) territory.   On the flip side, Dan Arnold is losing snaps to other guys like Tremble - going to fade off that until he shows more.    A sneaky future prop to look at will be the TD & yardage props for Royce Freeman - I think he showed a ton more pop than Hubbard, and his prowess in pass blocking automatically is going to give him some more PT.   Something to leverage for next week.

I agree with everything said here, but to be fair, Houston did force two fumbles on Darnold on his own half that were recovered by the Panthers. If those go the other way, things could get dicey. Anyone who took the Texans points last night deserves what they got, though. 

There is something about Thursday games that scare me off of betting on them. I took Carolina ML on a parlay but resisted betting them straight. Stupid, in hindsight.

 

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