Weekly Bets Thread

[NYRaider]

4 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

There is something about Thursday games that scare me off of betting on them. I took Carolina ML on a parlay but resisted betting them straight. Stupid, in hindsight.

Yeah the Thursday night games get weird. The over/under for NY/WFT was 40.5 and they ended up scoring like 60. Since 2017 the over is 39-26 and the favorite is 30-31-3 ATS. 

[Broncofan]

10 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

I agree with everything said here, but to be fair, Houston did force two fumbles on Darnold on his own half that were recovered by the Panthers. If those go the other way, things could get dicey. Anyone who took the Texans points last night deserves what they got, though. 

There is something about Thursday games that scare me off of betting on them. I took Carolina ML on a parlay but resisted betting them straight. Stupid, in hindsight.

 

Yeah, that's part of the 20-25 percent U27 - if those fumbles both occur without Moore/CMC, then it's possible.   Then again, the offsides-called as false start on CAR, and the fumble-ruled-as-incomplete pass on HOU in the 4Q, both swing CAR's way, we get to 35+ pts very easily, even with the CMC injury (which is kinda nuts).    There's never going to be a 0 percent probability because of variance events like those.     Still, the conclusion that CAR vs. HOU with no QB is going to lead to an O27 (and what CAR did the prior 2 weeks is irrelevant to a CAR-HOU discussion) about 75-80 percent of the time, I feel comfortable with post-game.   That won't matter so much this year, since they're done playing each other, but in intra-divisional games, those kind of analyses matter.

Either way, on to the next one...

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SBLIII said:

I was sort of joking with Davis Mills as he was completely horrible in the preseason. If I had to bet on it, it would have been Carolina but really them being over 7 I stayed away from the game.

There are a couple of games I'm staying away from this weekend. Those being LAR-TB, MIN-SEA, NE-NO and some others. The MIN-SEA game to me smells like a trap game. I don't know what it is but I would not be shocked by Minnesota winning big. The LV vs Miami game is another trap game I think. Not betting on it.

The bets I have made

LAC +7

ARI -7

WFT +9

CIN ML

DEN -10

SF -3

PHI +4

 

Everything says DEN -10 and SF-3 should win, but this is where my anti-home team bias kicks in.  I default to being down on my home team ATS, and that's served me well in the past.  I recognize I don't look at them with the same lens as others, and $-wise, better to be a little more pessimistic (and better for my expectations).     I have gone DEN to cover ATS and been 2-0 so far (which is a new feeling to be backing DEN as a fave lol), but on this one, just think there are better spots.

As for SF-3, the one thing that really worries me is Jimmy G and the cohesion of the run game.   You give me Mostert (healthy), or a rotation that has gelled, I'm totally on board with SF-3.  If I had to pick, it would go that way.   But I think there are better spots to capitalize on - if ppl bet all 16 games, IMO they're likely reducing the potential returns.   Some games are better avoided, this is one of them IMO.   

As a PHI +4 backer, the one piece of news I don't like getting is Brooks being out a while.   I'm a huge fan of trench mismatches in identifying leverage opps.  Losing Brooks hurts PHI's OL a lot.   The only silver lining is they've been used to having to sub in for him, but still hurts.    As long as there are no more injuries, I'll still lean that way, but the gap's narrowed. 

I'm on the MIN side for race to 20/25/30, WFT +9, and LAC +6.5 along with ARI-7 very strongly at this stage (WFT is now +7).   My CIN lean is based on PIT not having Diontae Johnson, that OL being a mess, and no TJ Watt (which really makes a massive difference).   I'm all over the 15/20/25 CIN race if the injury report goes as above. 

 

Edited September 24, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

20 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Weird formatting, but will add MIN race to 15/20/25/30 for the Sun/Mon slate, which with CAR -7 win, now stands at:

ARI -7 @ JAX -125

WFT +9 @ BUF -105

LAC +6.5 @ KC -105

MIN RACE to 20/25/30 vs. SEA

PHI +4 @ DAL

 

WEEK 3

ATS / ML / RACE bets

CAR -7 -125 @ HOU - WIN (and already counted in books)

 

ARI -7 (now -110) @JAX 

WFT +9 -105 (now +7 -110) @BUF

LAC +7 -115 (cashed out +6.5 without cost given the different payout, always take the 7)   @KC

MIN RACE to 20/25/30 (+130 /+175 /+310) vs. SEA 

PHI +4 -105   @ DAL - pulled with Brooks out / Mailata iffy       

Pending injury reports - CIN RACE to 15/20/25 @ PIT

 

Player / TD Props - still pending

Tyler Boyd - ??? (pending) - with news Tee Higgins likely to miss the game, CIN's targets become concentrated in 3 guys.   Going to get a piece of all 3.   Whatever the line is, as long as the payout isn't juiced, I'm all in for O5.5 +money and O60-65 yds.    Thinking it will be less given his prior stats this year.  Which brings me to:

Ja'Marr Chase O63.5 receiving -105 - see above

Joe Mixon O3.5 catches +120 - see above

Sterling Shepard O5.5 catches +120 and O61.5 receiving -105 - NYG's top WR vs. the ATL secondary.   'Nuff said

Evan Engram - ??? (pending) - ATL is horrible against TE's.   Whatever the # is, I'm game.

Mike Williams O5.5 catches +120 - The X receiver in the Lombardi O.  Buy in.

Matt Stafford O26.5 completions -110 - credit to @N4L, tailing.

TD props - Engram, Boyd/Chase - as long as they are +150 or better, and 2-TD is +1600 or better.    Also will take a shot on KJ Osborn and Scott Miller (but odds should be at least +300 and +4000 for 2+).    They should all get looks as WR3's (Miller takes over AB's role).  

 

 

Updated Record Post TNF Week 3:

ATS - 8-4, 1-1 RACE to 15/20/25/30, net +12.4U

Player props - 16-11, +4.0U

TD - 3-9, but with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis Week 1, makes this +25.2U so far

Net balance:  +41.6U profit so far

Edited September 25, 2021 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

Away teams are 20-13 ATS and home favorites are 5-13 ATS this season. 

[N4L]

18 hours ago, SBLIII said:

Houston covers.

 

4 hours ago, SBLIII said:

I was sort of joking with Davis Mills as he was completely horrible in the preseason. If I had to bet on it, it would have been Carolina but really them being over 7 I stayed away from the game.

Ffs, can we not do this please? Get out of here with the revisionist history 

You can't take one side before the game, then say you would have taken the other side after the game when your original pick loses. Stick to your guns. No one wins all of their bets, but don't try to claim you were "joking" about your pick after the fact. It's disingenuous to say the least 

Smfh. No one cares if anyone in this thread was wrong. What I do care about is people trying to pump themselves up with nonsense as if footballs future clout was important somehow.

I'm no better than anyone else, but I am trying to hold this thread to a higher standard since there is money on the line. I don't mean to single you out, but come on. Bad look. 

[Broncofan]

Brooks out & now Mailata possibly out - pulling back on PHI +4 play.   Trench mismatches are where I look for edges this really negates a big +  for the Iggles on MNF.  
 

 

Edited September 24, 2021 by Broncofan

[SBLIII]

33 minutes ago, N4L said:

 

Ffs, can we not do this please? Get out of here with the revisionist history 

You can't take one side before the game, then say you would have taken the other side after the game when your original pick loses. Stick to your guns. No one wins all of their bets, but don't try to claim you were "joking" about your pick after the fact. It's disingenuous to say the least 

Smfh. No one cares if anyone in this thread was wrong. What I do care about is people trying to pump themselves up with nonsense as if footballs future clout was important somehow.

I'm no better than anyone else, but I am trying to hold this thread to a higher standard since there is money on the line. I don't mean to single you out, but come on. Bad look. 

I didn't even bet on it. Not sure what's your point is. I posted my bets for this weekend.

[NYRaider]

48 minutes ago, N4L said:

Ffs, can we not do this please? Get out of here with the revisionist history 

You can't take one side before the game, then say you would have taken the other side after the game when your original pick loses. Stick to your guns. No one wins all of their bets, but don't try to claim you were "joking" about your pick after the fact. It's disingenuous to say the least 

Smfh. No one cares if anyone in this thread was wrong. What I do care about is people trying to pump themselves up with nonsense as if footballs future clout was important somehow.

I'm no better than anyone else, but I am trying to hold this thread to a higher standard since there is money on the line. I don't mean to single you out, but come on. Bad look. 

I apologize for the under 27 comment, I didn't mean to come off as a jerk. And I genuinely enjoy reading your insight on games and what wagers to place. 

[NYRaider]

47 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Brooks out & now Mailata possibly out - pulling back on PHI +4 play.   Trench mismatches are where I look for edges this really negates a big +  for the Iggles on MNF.  
 

 

Huge losses for Philly, they just gave him that massive extension too. I had already placed Philly (+4) in a couple of parlays this week. I still think Philly has a chance to win or at least keep the game close. The Cowboys defensive coordinator is a Gus Bradley (Raiders DC) prodigee. So I'd expect their game plan to slow down Hurts will look similar to the looks we were using against the Ravens. I could see a couple of big throws to Reagor or Smith against their cover 3 defense.

[Broncofan]

10 hours ago, Broncofan said:

WEEK 3

ATS / ML / RACE bets

CAR -7 -125 @ HOU - WIN (and already counted in books)

 

ARI -7 (now -110) @JAX 

WFT +9 -105 (now +7 -110) @BUF

LAC +7 -115 (cashed out +6.5 without cost given the different payout, always take the 7)   @KC

MIN RACE to 20/25/30 (+130 /+175 /+310) vs. SEA 

PHI +4 -105   @ DAL - pulled with Brooks out / Mailata iffy       

Pending injury reports - CIN RACE to 15/20/25 @ PIT

 

Player / TD Props -

 

 

Adding player props & TD props pending:

Tyler Boyd - ??? (pending) - with news Tee Higgins likely to miss the game, CIN's targets become concentrated in 3 guys.   Going to get a piece of all 3.   Whatever the line is, as long as the payout isn't juiced, I'm all in for O5.5 +money and O60-65 yds.    Thinking it will be less given his prior stats this year.  Which brings me to:

Ja'Marr Chase O63.5 receiving -105 - see above

Joe Mixon O3.5 catches +120 - see above

Sterling Shepard O5.5 catches +120 and O61.5 receiving -105 - NYG's top WR vs. the ATL secondary.   'Nuff said

Evan Engram - ??? (pending) - ATL is horrible against TE's.   Whatever the # is, I'm game.

Mike Williams O5.5 catches +120 - he's the new X in the Lombardi O.  Buy in.

Matt Stafford O26.5 completions -110 - I'll credit @N4L here, pure tail.

 

TD props - Engram, Boyd/Chase - as long as they are +150 or better, and 2-TD is +1600 or better.    Also will take a shot on KJ Osborn and Scott Miller (but odds should be at least +300 and +4000 for 2+).    They should all get looks as WR3's (Miller takes over AB's role).  

 

Edited September 25, 2021 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

4 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Sterling Shepard O5.5 catches +120 and O61.5 receiving -105 - NYG's top WR vs. the ATL secondary.   'Nuff said

Evan Engram - ??? (pending) - ATL is horrible against TE's.   Whatever the # is, I'm game.

Kenny Golladay reportedly might miss this weeks game as well. I think Darius Slayton is a sneaky good play, he's currently 3rd on the team in targets through 2 games. And last week against Washington he had 3 catches on 6 targets for 54 yards/1 TD but he dropped a wide open 43 yard TD in the 4th quarter. 

[N4L]

Over Stafford 26.5 pass completions feels like a gimmie - Tampa run D is the best in the league. Teams arent even trying to run on them. McVay has gotten pass happy in the past (post gurley). Dak went 42/58 in week 1 and ryan went 35/46 in week 2. 

Stafford has been throwing the ball well. Should fly over this number

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

I apologize for the under 27 comment, I didn't mean to come off as a jerk. And I genuinely enjoy reading your insight on games and what wagers to place. 

I appreciate that and I hope I dont come off as an a$$. Glad we can just move on and focus on $$$$$

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, N4L said:

Over Stafford 26.5 pass completions feels like a gimmie - Tampa run D is the best in the league. Teams arent even trying to run on them. McVay has gotten pass happy in the past (post gurley). Dak went 42/58 in week 1 and ryan went 35/46 in week 2. 

Stafford has been throwing the ball well. Should fly over this number

I appreciate that and I hope I dont come off as an a$$. Glad we can just move on and focus on $$$$$

I think I read that Henderson is doubtful to play this week as well so I'd expect a very pass happy attack for the Rams this week. I'm considering picking up Van Jefferson in one of my leagues as a potential flex option this week. 

No it's all good I get where you were coming from and I shouldn't have mentioned anything. But I do appreciate your betting knowledge, I want to hit on some bets this season. What are some of the games that you're interested in this week?

[Broncofan]

5 hours ago, N4L said:

Over Stafford 26.5 pass completions feels like a gimmie - Tampa run D is the best in the league. Teams arent even trying to run on them. McVay has gotten pass happy in the past (post gurley). Dak went 42/58 in week 1 and ryan went 35/46 in week 2. 

Stafford has been throwing the ball well. Should fly over this number

If McVay has a pulse, LAR will be throwing the ball at least 50x.   No point in "trying" to keep TB's run D honest - they're the ultimate pass funnel D.    Nice find.

Edited September 25, 2021 by Broncofan