Weekly Bets Thread

[Malfatron]

10 hours ago, N4L said:

 

Ffs, can we not do this please? Get out of here with the revisionist history 

You can't take one side before the game, then say you would have taken the other side after the game when your original pick loses. Stick to your guns. No one wins all of their bets, but don't try to claim you were "joking" about your pick after the fact. It's disingenuous to say the least 

Smfh. No one cares if anyone in this thread was wrong. What I do care about is people trying to pump themselves up with nonsense as if footballs future clout was important somehow.

I'm no better than anyone else, but I am trying to hold this thread to a higher standard since there is money on the line. I don't mean to single you out, but come on. Bad look. 

excellent post!

Thursday night and an away game, nobody would break balls for picking houston to cover.

but own it.

[Malfatron]

14 hours ago, SBLIII said:

SF -3

this is so ridiculously low that is feels like a trap

or is it because idiots keep betting on gb?

[N4L]

2 hours ago, Malfatron said:

this is so ridiculously low that is feels like a trap

or is it because idiots keep betting on gb?

Im with you, I saw it move to -3.5 for plus money so I bought it back to 3 for -113 because I was expecting it to move up to 5 or 6. I absolutely hammered SF -3. biggest bet of the season so far. 

Packers had a short week and have to travel. Traveling west isnt as bad as going east and its a "night" game, but an extra day is an extra day. 

49ers have the advantage in the trenches on both sides. Packers pass rush has been non-existent without Zadarious smith. Packers coverage has been pretty bad outside of Alexander. Youd think they would put him on Deebo since hes leading the league in receiving yards but we can get the ball to deebo in other ways that you cant really prevent. We can attack Kevin King. Kittle is due for a big game imo. 

49ers DL should FEAST. Packers had tons of trouble blocking DJ Jones the last few times we have played. Packers on their third LT means both bosa and ford are going to tee off. Packers will probably try to chip them or run some max protect but the 49ers coverage has been rock solid this year and our interior rush is excellent as well. 

JG is streaky and that increases variance. Davante Adams could have 10+ catches and rodgers could go full godgers mode. Dont get me wrong, there are paths to victory for the packers, but the most likely scenario is the 49ers covering handedly imo. 

[Broncofan]

On 9/25/2021 at 3:27 AM, N4L said:

Im with you, I saw it move to -3.5 for plus money so I bought it back to 3 for -113 because I was expecting it to move up to 5 or 6. I absolutely hammered SF -3. biggest bet of the season so far. 

Packers had a short week and have to travel. Traveling west isnt as bad as going east and its a "night" game, but an extra day is an extra day. 

49ers have the advantage in the trenches on both sides. Packers pass rush has been non-existent without Zadarious smith. Packers coverage has been pretty bad outside of Alexander. Youd think they would put him on Deebo since hes leading the league in receiving yards but we can get the ball to deebo in other ways that you cant really prevent. We can attack Kevin King. Kittle is due for a big game imo. 

49ers DL should FEAST. Packers had tons of trouble blocking DJ Jones the last few times we have played. Packers on their third LT means both bosa and ford are going to tee off. Packers will probably try to chip them or run some max protect but the 49ers coverage has been rock solid this year and our interior rush is excellent as well. 

JG is streaky and that increases variance. Davante Adams could have 10+ catches and rodgers could go full godgers mode. Dont get me wrong, there are paths to victory for the packers, but the most likely scenario is the 49ers covering handedly imo. 

With the news that Jenkins is out, weakening the GB OL really adds another 5-10% ATS win probability, so I think I'll lean SF -3 as well.   Like you said, with A-Rod & Adams, and JG's streakiness, this could end up being the time that GB covers - but have to like the odds more now.   I usually side with games where there's either a massive trench edge on both sides of the ball, and I was leaning that way regardless, but now it feels more pronounced.

On that front, feeling much more comfortable with NYG -2.5 after watching the TNF game.   NYG's OL is still an issue, but their play was massively better in the 2H.   At this stage, ATL hasn't figured it out on either side of the ball trench-wise.    And Matt Ryan is seeing ghosts big-time.    With more returning talent to the G-men, I'll back NYG -2.5 before that line gets to -3.

Updated picks:

WEEK 3

ATS (1U unless specified) / ML (1U) / RACE bets (0.5U)

CAR -7 -125 @ HOU - WIN (and already counted in books)

ARI -7 (now -110) @JAX - WIN (despite Kingsbury's idiocy)

WFT +9 -105 (now +7 -110) @BUF - Loss (bad read,  WFT D is just going to be an enigma for a while - they're in deep trouble)

LAC +7 -115 (cashed out +6.5 without cost given the different payout, always take the 7)   @KC - WIN

MIN RACE to 20/25/30 (+130 /+175 /+310) vs. SEA - WIN x3 !!!!

PHI +4 back in play, with RACE to 20/25/30 - PENDING

   

CIN RACE to 15/20/25 @ PIT (taken with TJ Watt / Diontae Johnson out) - WIN 2 of 3, so close to 25 lol

NYG -2.5 vs. ATL -110 - Loss (losing Sheperd & Slayton changed the game totally...sigh, way it goes)

SF -3 vs. GB -115 - Loss

 

Player / TD Props (1U for Player props unless specified) - Boyd/Engram yard props still pending

Ja'Marr Chase O63.5 receiving -105 - see above - WIN

Joe Mixon O3.5 catches +120 - see above - Loss

Sterling Shepard O5.5 catches +120 and O61.5 receiving -105 - NYG's top WR vs. the ATL secondary.   'Nuff said - Loss x 2 (hate, hate, hate early game injuries.  Ripple effect with Jones and NYG-3, a 4-bet cascade.  Oh well, that's the game)

Mike Williams O5.5 catches +120 - The X receiver in the Lombardi O.  Buy in - WIN

Matt Stafford O26.5 completions -110 - credit to @N4L, tailing - WIN (barely lol)

Daniel Jones O1.5 passing TD's -110 - the risk is that Barkley or Jones himself score by rushing TD's, but IMO this is 1 TD too low, I have a projection of 2.8 TD's, so 1.5 at those odds is too good to pass up.   Can also decide to take NYG TT O24.5 -115 too IMO. - LOSS (compound effect of losing Shepard & Slayton with a gimpy Golladay - sigh)

NEW - Saquon Barkley over 3.5 catches +120 - with news Booker is inactive and only 1 other RB active today - WIN

TD props - Vegas has wised up to the TD props - Engram, Chase & Williams are all less than +150, and the 2-TD prop is deflated all the way down to +1000 to +1200 instead of the +1800 - 3300 range I had in week 1-2.    Scotty Miller & KJ Osborn are now +200 / +2000 instead of the +250 to 400 / +3500 to +5000 or more range.      Sadly have to pass on all 5 plays at those prices, no value.

2 plays I've found, for 0.8/0.4U for the first, and 0.4U/0.2U for the second:

Daniel Jones +275 / +2500 (for the rushing/receiving, and a direct hedge against the O1.5) - Loss (running in for 2-pt conversions doesn't count lol) 

Donald Parham +800 / +12500 - LAC has designed RZ/TD plays for Parham of each of the first 2 weeks (incomplete week 1, scored TD but penalty called it back week 2) - Loss

The 3rd I'll consider is Braxton Berrios +450 / +7000 2+ in the 4 PM slate if the day is going well   

18.8 U stake for this week - passed on the Mooney addition, waiting on Berrios TD

 

Updated Record Post TNF Week 3 (WILL UPDATE AFTER MNF):

ATS - 11-7, 3-1 RACE to 15/20/25/30, net +18.4U

Player props - 20-15, +4.2U

TD - 3-9, but with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis Week 1, makes this +22.8U so far

Net balance:  +45.4U profit so far

 

Edited September 27, 2021 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

Derek Carr over 23.5 completions seems like a lock. @Broncofan @N4L The Raiders will be without Josh Jacobs again this week and have completely abandoned the running game this season behind our young, hurt offensive line. We're essentially using short passes as our running game, on the season Carr has thrown the ball 2x the amount we have ran it.

[SmittyBacall]

On 9/24/2021 at 11:03 AM, Broncofan said:

WEEK 3

ATS / ML / RACE bets

CAR -7 -125 @ HOU - WIN (and already counted in books)

 

ARI -7 (now -110) @JAX 

WFT +9 -105 (now +7 -110) @BUF

LAC +7 -115 (cashed out +6.5 without cost given the different payout, always take the 7)   @KC

MIN RACE to 20/25/30 (+130 /+175 /+310) vs. SEA 

PHI +4 -105   @ DAL - pulled with Brooks out / Mailata iffy       

Pending injury reports - CIN RACE to 15/20/25 @ PIT

 

Player / TD Props - still pending

Tyler Boyd - ??? (pending) - with news Tee Higgins likely to miss the game, CIN's targets become concentrated in 3 guys.   Going to get a piece of all 3.   Whatever the line is, as long as the payout isn't juiced, I'm all in for O5.5 +money and O60-65 yds.    Thinking it will be less given his prior stats this year.  Which brings me to:

Ja'Marr Chase O63.5 receiving -105 - see above

Joe Mixon O3.5 catches +120 - see above

Sterling Shepard O5.5 catches +120 and O61.5 receiving -105 - NYG's top WR vs. the ATL secondary.   'Nuff said

Evan Engram - ??? (pending) - ATL is horrible against TE's.   Whatever the # is, I'm game.

Mike Williams O5.5 catches +120 - The X receiver in the Lombardi O.  Buy in.

Matt Stafford O26.5 completions -110 - credit to @N4L, tailing.

TD props - Engram, Boyd/Chase - as long as they are +150 or better, and 2-TD is +1600 or better.    Also will take a shot on KJ Osborn and Scott Miller (but odds should be at least +300 and +4000 for 2+).    They should all get looks as WR3's (Miller takes over AB's role).  

 

 

Updated Record Post TNF Week 3:

ATS - 8-4, 1-1 RACE to 15/20/25/30, net +12.4U

Player props - 16-11, +4.0U

TD - 3-9, but with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis Week 1, makes this +25.2U so far

Net balance:  +41.6U profit so far

Do you bet 1u on TD and 1u on 2 TDs, or do you 0.5u on the 2 TDs?

[SBLIII]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

With the news that Jenkins is out, weakening the GB OL really adds another 5-10% ATS win probability, so I think I'll lean SF -3 as well.   Like you said, with A-Rod & Adams, and JG's streakiness, this could end up being the time that GB covers - but have to like the odds more now.   I usually side with games where there's either a massive trench edge on both sides of the ball, and I was leaning that way regardless, but now it feels more pronounced.

On that front, feeling much more comfortable with NYG -2.5 after watching the TNF game.   NYG's OL is still an issue, but their play was massively better in the 2H.   At this stage, ATL hasn't figured it out on either side of the ball trench-wise.    And Matt Ryan is seeing ghosts big-time.    With more returning talent to the G-men, I'll back NYG -2.5 before that line gets to -3.

Updated picks:

WEEK 3

ATS (1U unless specified) / ML (1U) / RACE bets (0.5U)

CAR -7 -125 @ HOU - WIN (and already counted in books)

ARI -7 (now -110) @JAX 

WFT +9 -105 (now +7 -110) @BUF

LAC +7 -115 (cashed out +6.5 without cost given the different payout, always take the 7)   @KC

MIN RACE to 20/25/30 (+130 /+175 /+310) vs. SEA 

PHI +4 -105   @ DAL - pulled with Brooks out / Mailata iffy       

Pending injury reports - CIN RACE to 15/20/25 @ PIT

NYG -2.5 vs. ATL -110

SF -3 vs. GB -115

 

Player / TD Props (1U for Player props unless specified) - Boyd/Engram yard props still pending

Ja'Marr Chase O63.5 receiving -105 - see above

Joe Mixon O3.5 catches +120 - see above

Sterling Shepard O5.5 catches +120 and O61.5 receiving -105 - NYG's top WR vs. the ATL secondary.   'Nuff said

Mike Williams O5.5 catches +120 - The X receiver in the Lombardi O.  Buy in.

Matt Stafford O26.5 completions -110 - credit to @N4L, tailing.

Daniel Jones O1.5 passing TD's -110 - the risk is that Barkley or Jones himself score by rushing TD's, but IMO this is 1 TD too low, I have a projection of 2.8 TD's, so 1.5 at those odds is too good to pass up.   Can also decide to take NYG TT O24.5 -115 too IMO.

TD props - Vegas has wised up to the TD props - Engram, Chase & Williams are all less than +150, and the 2-TD prop is deflated all the way down to +1000 to +1200 instead of the +1800 - 3300 range I had in week 1-2.    Scotty Miller & KJ Osborn are now +200 / +2000 instead of the +250 to 400 / +3500 to +5000 or more range.      Sadly have to pass on all 5 plays at those prices, no value.

2 plays I've found, for 0.8/0.4U for the first, and 0.4U/0.2U for the second:

Daniel Jones +275 / +2500 (for the rushing/receiving, and a direct hedge against the O1.5)

Donald Parham +800 / +12500 - LAC has designed RZ/TD plays for Parham of each of the first 2 weeks (incomplete week 1, scored TD but penalty called it back week 2).

The 3rd I'll consider is Darnell Mooney, I'd be all over him if he didn't have a Q tag, but he did practice Wed-Fri.

17.8U in pending the Mooney addition (which would make it 19U) on the line this Sunday...

 

Updated Record Post TNF Week 3:

ATS - 8-4, 1-1 RACE to 15/20/25/30, net +12.4U

Player props - 16-11, +4.0U

TD - 3-9, but with +3300 2-TD Corey Davis Week 1, makes this +25.2U so far

Net balance:  +41.6U profit so far

 

 

 

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, SBLIII said:

 

 

 

Which is why I had PHI +4 - just that losing Brooks / Mailata counters that a fair amount.   I'd still lean that way, but I'm not as confident as I was pre-OL injuries.    If Sunday goes well, I'll likely dive back in.  But for now, I can leave it as a lean, but not committing $ to.

The thing is - if you bet every game, you're likely giving away $.   If ppl are confident with PHI, great, go for it.   But the mistake ppl make is when they bet all games.     Conversely, making picks for all games isn't nearly as meaningful if you're not putting your $ on it.   I have a ton of respect for those that would put $ on all games - but those are full-time operators - and I still think they're likely leaving $ on the table.   With 16 games, there can't be equal levels of confidence, no matter how good you are.   If you want to profit from this, knowing to narrow your focus with games you feel there's an edge, that's the path to sustainable success IMO.

Edited September 25, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

Do you bet 1u on TD and 1u on 2 TDs, or do you 0.5u on the 2 TDs?

I bet 1.2U on 1TD and 0.6U on 2-TD in week 1, the props were that good.  Corey Davis as top WR and target was +275 and +3300 for 1 & 2 TD's.   That was ridiculous.  

But I posted the revised stakes in the list - I bet 0.8U/0.4U for Danny Jones (and will do so for Mooney if he's cleared and looks good in warmups) - but Parham is a much bigger longshot, so I'm only going 0.4U 1TD and 0.2U 2TD+ for Parham.   

Equal bets there would be bad value.    The TD value is fading VERY quickly, Vegas is starting to see emerging trends on snap count, target share and RZ looks that have dropped the odds a ton. 

It would also be bad value to bet TD props at the same value as player / ATS / ML props. I'm picking longshots where I think the value is higher than actual probability (IE thought Davis had a 15-20 percent chance of 2 TD's, and a 40-50 percent chance of TD - but I was getting less than 1 in 3 implied odds for 1TD, and 3 percent chance of 2TD according to the payouts).   

Betting 1U each time in theory works when you win, but bankroll management gets dicey.  I'm only committing 17.8% of my stake with my Sunday card, which sticks to my 15-20 percent range I try to stick to, when I'm happy with the evaluations (drop the stake if you don't see good opps).  I put 28.8 percent week 1, which paid off handsomely, but that's based on week 1 values often being grossly underweighted.   Really, if you don't want to lose bankroll, sticking to 15-20 percent as the absolute max is the right way to go (and go much lower if you are starting out), outside of week 1.

Edited September 25, 2021 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

20 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Which is why I had PHI +4 - just that losing Brooks / Mailata counters that a fair amount.   I'd still lean that way, but I'm not as confident as I was pre-OL injuries.    If Sunday goes well, I'll likely dive back in.  But for now, I can leave it as a lean, but not committing $ to.

One thing that does give me some hope for Philly is that their backups are solid. Their backup LT is Andre Dillard who was the 22nd pick in 2019 and their backup RG is Landon Dickerson who the Eagles just took 37th overall in the previous draft.

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

One thing that does give me some hope for Philly is that their backups are solid. Their backup LT is Andre Dillard who was the 22nd pick in 2019 and their backup RG is Landon Dickerson who the Eagles just took 37th overall in the previous draft.

Dillard has draft pedigree, but man he hasn't shown well.   Dickerson is just getting into game shape.    I like their depth, and long-term it's going to serve them well, but it's hard to have game 1 confidence for them given Dillard's past play and Dickerson's late start.   Think PHI has a real shot to win this division, which makes this a huge game for both teams.  

[DontTazeMeBro]

Finally playing with live bullets

Dolphins +185

Parlay

Lions +8, Saints +125, Dolphins +4, Jets +11

[Rainmaker90]

So far I took a very chalky teaser that I’m not too proud of now 

 

Balt -2, KC -.5, Buff -1 

 

I have Chi +7 very large 

 

I’m very likely to take Sea and SF but we’ll see 

[minutemancl]

I'm feeling confident on the Giants-Falcons over. Its only 47. 2 most likely possibilities I see both have that hitting:

1. Giants defense continues to sleep, so both offenses put up points

2. Giants defense wakes up and causes turnovers, letting the Giants offense put up the points the Falcons offense should be putting up

Put a small bet on WFT moneyline since I think that could happen. I have bad luck with player props, but I'm thinking of putting one on Shep in the Giants game. Hes a different player this year, and the Falcons don't have AJ Terrell. 

[BStanRamFan]

I put out Player Props. Picking 61% on the year. This is my slate today.