Evaluating Pace

[dll2000]

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2019	3	David Montgomery	73	RB	2019	0	0	1	0	10						143	497	5	19	152	0			Iowa St.
2019	4	Riley Ridley	126	WR		0	0	0																Georgia
2019	6	Duke Shelley	205	CB	2019	0	0	0	0	4														Kansas St.
2019	7	Kerrith Whyte, Jr.	222	RB		0	0	0																Florida Atlantic
2019	7	Stephen Denmark	238	CB		0	0	0																Valdosta St.
Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2018	1	Roquan Smith	8	ILB	2019	0	0	2	9	25												2	5.0	Georgia
2018	2	James Daniels	39	C	2019	0	0	1	5	26														Iowa
2018	2	Anthony Miller	51	WR	2019	0	0	0	4	25	1	1	8	0	0	7	25	0	56	695	7			Memphis
2018	4	Joel Iyiegbuniwe	115	LB	2019	0	0	0	1	25														Western Kentucky
2018	5	Bilal Nichols	145	DT	2019	0	0	1	5	21													3.0	Delaware
2018	6	Kylie Fitts	181	DE	2018	0	0	0	0	6														Utah
2018	7	Javon Wims	224	WR	2019	0	0	0	0	14									11	113	1			Georgia
Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2017	1	Mitchell Trubisky	2	QB	2019	0	1	3	20	35	661	1046	6996	40	23	124	727	5						North Carolina
2017	2	Adam Shaheen	45	TE	2019	0	0	0	1	27									26	249	4			Ashland
2017	4	Eddie Jackson	112	S	2019	1	1	3	20	40												8	1.0	Alabama
2017	4	Tarik Cohen	119	RB	2019	1	1	1	16	42	2	3	22	2	0	224	930	5	167	1329	9			North Carolina A&T
2017	5	Jordan Morgan	147	G		0	0	0																Kutztown Pennsylvania
Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2016	1	Leonard Floyd	9	OLB	2019	0	0	4	20	48												1	18.5	Georgia
2016	2	Cody Whitehair	56	G	2019	0	1	3	20	58														Kansas St.
2016	3	Jonathan Bullard	72	DT	2019	0	0	1	7	54													3.0	Florida
2016	4	Nick Kwiatkoski	113	ILB	2019	0	0	0	10	51												1	5.0	West Virginia
2016	4	Deon Bush	124	S	2019	0	0	0	4	48													1.0	Miami (FL)
2016	4	Deiondre' Hall	127	CB	2018	0	0	0	2	23												1		Northern Iowa
2016	5	Jordan Howard	150	RB	2019	0	1	3	21	56						897	3895	30	82	637	2			Indiana
2016	6	DeAndre Houston-Carson	185	S	2019	0	0	0	2	42														William & Mary
2016	7	Daniel Braverman	230	WR	2016	0	0	0	0	3									0	0	0			West. Michigan
Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2015	1	Kevin White	7	WR	2018	0	0	0	2	14						1	9	0	25	285	0			West Virginia
2015	2	Eddie Goldman	39	DT	2019	0	0	4	24	62													12.5	Florida St.
2015	3	Hroniss Grasu	71	C	2018	0	0	1	7	17									0	2	0			Oregon
2015	4	Jeremy Langford	106	RB	2018	0	0	0	8	29						219	762	10	41	421	1			Michigan St.
2015	5	Adrian Amos	142	S	2019	0	0	5	20	70												4	2.0	Penn St.
2015	6	Tayo Fabuluje

[WindyCity]

Average, plus a historic bad QB choice that drops him well below average.

[dll2000]

Notable UDFA:

2015 Bryce Callahan

2016 Roy Robertson-Harris and Ben Braunecker 

2017 Rashaad Coward Isaiah Irving

2018 Abdullah Anderson Ryan Nall Kevin Toliver

[dll2000]

2015 Offseason

Biggest signings: WR Eddie Royal, DB Antrel Rolle, OLB Pernell McPhee, DT Ray McDonald, LB Mason Foster

Biggest re-signings: TE Zach Miller, QB Jimmy Clausen

 

2016 Offseason

Biggest signings: LB Danny Trevathan, OT Bobby Massie, CB Tracy Porter, LB Jerrell Freeman, DL Mitch Unrein, WR Marc Mariani, DL Akiem Hicks, S Omar Bolden, OL Ted Larsen, OL Josh Sitton

Biggest re-signings: TE Zach Miller, CB Sherrick McManis

 

2017 Offseason

Biggest signings: WR Markus Wheaton, QB Mike Glennon, DB Quintin Demps, TE Dion Sims, WR Kendall Wright, OL Tom Compton, DB Marcus Cooper, DB Prince Amukamara

Biggest re-signings: DB Bryce Callahan, WR Josh Bellamy

 

2018 Offseason

Biggest signings: WR Allen Robinson, WR Taylor Gabriel, K Cody Parkey, QB Chase Daniel, TE Trey Burton, OLB Aaron Lynch

Biggest re-signings: CB Kyle Fuller, CB Prince Amukamara, P Pat O'Donnell, CB Sherrick McManis

Khalil Mack Trade

2019

HHCD, Mike Davis, Marvin Hall, Ted Larsen, C. Patterson, B. Skrine, resigned a bunch of players.

 

 

[dll2000]

Largest decisions IMO to be evaluated and graded on in order of importance:

1) Tie: MT trade and selection and Khalil Mack trade.

2) Roquan Smith, Leonard Floyd and Kevin White (because they were top 10 picks).

3) Resigning Leno, Whitehair and Massie.

4) Free agents: Rolle, McPhee, Massie, Trevathan, Freeman, Hicks, Larsen, Wheaton, Glennon, Demps, Sims, Prince, Burton, Robinson, Gabriel, HHCD, Skrine, Davis, Patterson

5) 2nd round picks - Daniels, Miller, Goldman, Whitehair, Shaheen

6) 3rd and 4th round picks - Grassu, Langford, Bullard, Kwik, Bush, Hall, Jackson, Cohen, Iggy

7) Kicker

8) Everything else and diamonds in rough.  

 

[beardown3231]

Add Anthony Miller's sorry and seemingly stupid *** to the "con" side of Pace's pros and cons. This **** is happening with regularity

 

Edited November 20, 2019 by beardown3231

[WindyCity]

0 playoff wins.

1 playoff appearance

4 losing seasons

[dll2000]

So now we have info.  Lets break it down:

Largest decisions IMO to be evaluated and graded on in order of importance.  This is hindsight grading.  I'll note many decisions were not seen as bad at time, but turned out bad and that is ultimately what you get graded on:

1) Tie: MT trade and selection and Khalil Mack trade.

MT trade turns out to be F-.  MT is looking like a for sure bust.  Still a small percent chance that he turns it around.  But it's like 1- 4% given injuries and play of him and team.  

Mack trade on its face still looks good, but light of handcuffs it puts on Bears to fix QB position it looks like a huge mistake in hindsight.  Really tough to grade in light of our particular current circumstance.  Only way to dig out may be to see if someone else with a QB wants to make a blockbuster trade for Mack.  I'll give it an incomplete.  

2) Roquan Smith, Leonard Floyd and Kevin White (because they were top 10 picks).

Kevin White - bust.  Floyd - bust. Roquan Smith mostly good, but really bad stretch this year with personal issues.  Also notable that Tremaine Edwards and Vander Esch have also been good.  I'll give it a D- overall.   

3) Resigning Leno, Whitehair and Massie.  

All 3 are playing like F garbage this year.  I still think Whitehair is a talented and very good football player.  I do not think he is a center.  I think Massie and Leno are definition of average to below average, but they are paid like it.   I'll give it a C.   

4) Free agents: Rolle, McPhee, Massie, Trevathan, Freeman, Hicks, Larsen, Wheaton, Glennon, Demps, Sims, Prince, Burton, Robinson, Gabriel, HHCD, Skrine, Davis, Patterson

Trevathan, Hicks, Prince, Robinson, HHCD, Skrine have performed to contracts or much above contracts.

Rolle, Freeman, McPhee, Larsen, Glennon, Demps, Sims, Burton, Wheaton were busts.

Massie, Patterson and Gabriel have been okay.

I'll say C- overall.  

5) 2nd round picks - Daniels, Miller, Goldman, Whitehair, Shaheen

Shaheen is a bust.  Daniels and Whitehair I think are very talented players having an abberational horrible year in 2019 so they are tough to grade.  Miller I think is talented and has not had QB play to match, but has also done a lot of really dumb things.  Also tough to grade.   Goldman was a hit.  

Because I have believe Whitehair has performed and Daniels will still be very good and was good last year and Goldman was good I will give this group a solid B.  

6) 3rd and 4th round picks - Grassu, Langford, Bullard, Kwik, Bush, Hall, Jackson, Cohen, Iggy

Jackson and Cohen although playing subpar in 2019 and still considered really big hits.  Especially Jackson.  Rest are busts with Kwik and Bush being average.  

For round consideration I'll give it a B+.  

7) Kicker

F.  FA signing of Parkey was disaster.  I think Pinerio can be good, but is obviously not playing well at moment.  

8) Everything else and diamonds in rough.  

I'll give it a B+.  Pace finds a lot of good late rounders and UDFAs with high upside.

CONCLUSION:

Bears are on a precipice.  2018 was a very good year.  2019 was a year of huge expectations to build off 2018 and obviously has been a disaster.  

They have to fix O line, TE and QB in one off season without a ton of cap space or draft picks.  They are also looking at losing some key players and defensive depth.   

I think Pace and Nagy get 2020 for sure.  It's not looking good.   The key was Mitch Trubisky who did not take the hoped for step.  I think its possible he would have been good to better if O line and TEs didn't completely go in crapper this season, but we will never know.  He has not taken advantage of opportunities he has had with good blocking.

I think odds are its a failed regime and we will have to wait until next rebuild.  It's still possible to recover as there are still some very talented players on the roster, but it's a long shot.

 

 

 

[dll2000]

13 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

0 playoff wins.

1 playoff appearance

4 losing seasons

In fairness it was a rebuild from a long time of bad decisions and 2018 was a good year and 2019 and 2020 were supposed to be the climax.

So not counting this year, it was an upward pointing arrow.  He got hit with a perfect storm of everything that could go wrong did go wrong. 

But you are correct in results speak for themselves.  

[dll2000]

Bottom line really unless Bears somehow flip the script in 2020 is Bears (Pace) passed on Watson and Mahomes in 2017.  

That's all history will remember.

 

[dll2000]

Biggest Pace hindsight mistakes that doomed him in 2019:

1) Passing on Mahomes and drafting MT.

2) Drafting White and Floyd.

3) Not investing in better offensive tackles and settling for Massie and Leno time and again.  How your O line goes so goes your offense - most of time.  Unless you have a quick thinking QB who can overcome.  Those are rare.  

4) Resigning Long to large contract instead of leaving off him much sooner.  

5) Continuous disastrous decisions at TE position - notably Sims, Burton and Shaheen.  Then not addressing obvious TE need in 2019 offseason.

 

 

[BACK2MACKSACK]

Pace should be on the hotseat this offseason. The way I look at it, he has one task: To have a 10-6 record or better during the 2020 season. If he does that, then he can keep his job despite the mistakes he's made. He's had some bad offseasons and some good, but for him its now all on the line. I really don't care how he does it. For him its sink or swim. Even if we do bad, we could fire Pace toward the midseason and just tank for a high pick. We could decide whether to keep Nagy or start fresh with a different coach.

For me, I want to upgrade the OT, TE, and OLB positions via the draft. I don't think our draft capital is significant enough to get a good QB and I want to go all in on 2021. Leonard Floyd is okay, but he's definitely not going to worth his pricetag in the future. Finding good EDGE players require significant capital whether it's via free agency or draft and we might have to use a 2nd round pick to upgrade this premium position. Also for the longest time, everybody knows this team is starved for a franchise QB but I can't recall the last time we've had a stud Blindside Tackle.

So if the most important position on offense is QB.

Then by definition the most important position on defense is the Pass Rusher.

But then, the second most important position on offense could be the stud OT. And if you're going against a 3-4 D, it could depend on where the pass rusher is coming from. This is a position that Pace has yet to invest a high draft pick on. I can't recall many teams ever letting stud tackles see the light of free agency unless they are old and overpaid. I think that we could do much better than having a 7th round pick and a mediocre free agency acquisition protecting our QB, regardless of how bad he is. Plus, it can help our running game too.

I also wouldn't mind spending the pick on a TE. In my opinion the third round is the sweet spot on drafting a TE, but I wouldn't mind shelling out a second round pick for a position that we lack in talent.

 

[TB 1]

2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

So now we have info.  Lets break it down:

Largest decisions IMO to be evaluated and graded on in order of importance.  This is hindsight grading.  I'll note many decisions were not seen as bad at time, but turned out bad and that is ultimately what you get graded on:

1) Tie: MT trade and selection and Khalil Mack trade.

MT trade turns out to be F-.  MT is looking like a for sure bust.  Still a small percent chance that he turns it around.  But it's like 1- 4% given injuries and play of him and team.  

Mack trade on its face still looks good, but light of handcuffs it puts on Bears to fix QB position it looks like a huge mistake in hindsight.  Really tough to grade in light of our particular current circumstance.  Only way to dig out may be to see if someone else with a QB wants to make a blockbuster trade for Mack.  I'll give it an incomplete.  

2) Roquan Smith, Leonard Floyd and Kevin White (because they were top 10 picks).

Kevin White - bust.  Floyd - bust. Roquan Smith mostly good, but really bad stretch this year with personal issues.  Also notable that Tremaine Edwards and Vander Esch have also been good.  I'll give it a D- overall.   

3) Resigning Leno, Whitehair and Massie.  

All 3 are playing like F garbage this year.  I still think Whitehair is a talented and very good football player.  I do not think he is a center.  I think Massie and Leno are definition of average to below average, but they are paid like it.   I'll give it a C.   

4) Free agents: Rolle, McPhee, Massie, Trevathan, Freeman, Hicks, Larsen, Wheaton, Glennon, Demps, Sims, Prince, Burton, Robinson, Gabriel, HHCD, Skrine, Davis, Patterson

Trevathan, Hicks, Prince, Robinson, HHCD, Skrine have performed to contracts or much above contracts.

Rolle, Freeman, McPhee, Larsen, Glennon, Demps, Sims, Burton, Wheaton were busts.

Massie, Patterson and Gabriel have been okay.

I'll say C- overall.  

5) 2nd round picks - Daniels, Miller, Goldman, Whitehair, Shaheen

Shaheen is a bust.  Daniels and Whitehair I think are very talented players having an abberational horrible year in 2019 so they are tough to grade.  Miller I think is talented and has not had QB play to match, but has also done a lot of really dumb things.  Also tough to grade.   Goldman was a hit.  

Because I have believe Whitehair has performed and Daniels will still be very good and was good last year and Goldman was good I will give this group a solid B.  

6) 3rd and 4th round picks - Grassu, Langford, Bullard, Kwik, Bush, Hall, Jackson, Cohen, Iggy

Jackson and Cohen although playing subpar in 2019 and still considered really big hits.  Especially Jackson.  Rest are busts with Kwik and Bush being average.  

For round consideration I'll give it a B+.  

7) Kicker

F.  FA signing of Parkey was disaster.  I think Pinerio can be good, but is obviously not playing well at moment.  

8) Everything else and diamonds in rough.  

I'll give it a B+.  Pace finds a lot of good late rounders and UDFAs with high upside.

CONCLUSION:

Bears are on a precipice.  2018 was a very good year.  2019 was a year of huge expectations to build off 2018 and obviously has been a disaster.  

They have to fix O line, TE and QB in one off season without a ton of cap space or draft picks.  They are also looking at losing some key players and defensive depth.   

I think Pace and Nagy get 2020 for sure.  It's not looking good.   The key was Mitch Trubisky who did not take the hoped for step.  I think its possible he would have been good to better if O line and TEs didn't completely go in crapper this season, but we will never know.  He has not taken advantage of opportunities he has had with good blocking.

I think odds are its a failed regime and we will have to wait until next rebuild.  It's still possible to recover as there are still some very talented players on the roster, but it's a long shot.

 

 

 

Pace has screwed up the first round picks with the exception of Roquan who  i think will still be good despite 2 poor games after the personal problems.  pace made the mack trade with the expectation that Trubisky would be the answer at QB. So far he hasn't been and that is why the Bears are 4-6 this year. What makes the Trubisky, Floyd and Miller picks worse is that he traded extra picks for them so they used more on them then the draft pick. If you trade extra picks for players then they better be good and so far they have not been that good.

Still think that if the Bears make the right picks in the 2nd round and smart moves and have a healthy Hicks that this team can rebound next year. Pace could be fired if you think he screwed up the Trubisky pick. Which is why i still think that Pace will give Trubisky his 4th season as he still has to much invested in him.

[TB 1]

2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Biggest Pace hindsight mistakes that doomed him in 2019:

1) Passing on Mahomes and drafting MT.

2) Drafting White and Floyd.

3) Not investing in better offensive tackles and settling for Massie and Leno time and again.  How your O line goes so goes your offense - most of time.  Unless you have a quick thinking QB who can overcome.  Those are rare.  

4) Resigning Long to large contract instead of leaving off him much sooner.  

5) Continuous disastrous decisions at TE position - notably Sims, Burton and Shaheen.  Then not addressing obvious TE need in 2019 offseason.

 

 

Pace screwing up the Trubisky pick is #1 and #2.  He should have drafted an OT instead of taking White if one was available. Floyd is an NFL player but not a pass rusher so he is  a bad pick because of that.

[WindyCity]

22 minutes ago, BACK2MACKSACK said:

Pace should be on the hotseat this offseason. The way I look at it, he has one task: To have a 10-6 record or better during the 2020 season. If he does that, then he can keep his job despite the mistakes he's made. He's had some bad offseasons and some good, but for him its now all on the line. I really don't care how he does it. For him its sink or swim. Even if we do bad, we could fire Pace toward the midseason and just tank for a high pick. We could decide whether to keep Nagy or start fresh with a different coach.

For me, I want to upgrade the OT, TE, and OLB positions via the draft. I don't think our draft capital is significant enough to get a good QB and I want to go all in on 2021. Leonard Floyd is okay, but he's definitely not going to worth his pricetag in the future. Finding good EDGE players require significant capital whether it's via free agency or draft and we might have to use a 2nd round pick to upgrade this premium position. Also for the longest time, everybody knows this team is starved for a franchise QB but I can't recall the last time we've had a stud Blindside Tackle.

So if the most important position on offense is QB.

Then by definition the most important position on defense is the Pass Rusher.

But then, the second most important position on offense could be the stud OT. And if you're going against a 3-4 D, it could depend on where the pass rusher is coming from. This is a position that Pace has yet to invest a high draft pick on. I can't recall many teams ever letting stud tackles see the light of free agency unless they are old and overpaid. I think that we could do much better than having a 7th round pick and a mediocre free agency acquisition protecting our QB, regardless of how bad he is. Plus, it can help our running game too.

I also wouldn't mind spending the pick on a TE. In my opinion the third round is the sweet spot on drafting a TE, but I wouldn't mind shelling out a second round pick for a position that we lack in talent.

 

Ejector seat.