Offseason Work to do

[turtle28]

On 4/24/2020 at 4:39 PM, MOSteelers56 said:

I’m with you. I’m not even sold on Baltimore making a deep run. I still need to see their offense do something. Their defense has improved, but the big question is can Jackson keep improving. I’m not so sure if he can.

One thing to keep in mind with Baltimore is that they still don’t have two good OLBs, they just have Judon as a good OLB, maybe Ferguson improves opposite him but that’s a big question mark.

I hate to say this bc I’d hate to see it, but it wouldn’t shock me if Baltimore ends up signing Jadeveon Clowney on a one-year prove it deal. They really need an upgrade there. They could also trade for Ryan Kerrigan, but I don’t think the Redskins will trade him, but they should.

I was shocked they didn’t take an OLB in round 2 or 3, but they got arguably the best RB in the draft with Dobbins. Their rushing attack was already the best in NFL history and it even got better thanks to that draft pick!

[jebrick]

This is potentially very scary

 

https://overthecap.com/what-could-happen-to-the-salary-cap-in-2021/

 

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One of the questions I have been getting over and over recently has been what happens to the salary cap next year if the NFL season is impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic. I talked about it a little bit on last weeks podcast and thought I would expand on it In a post. Obviously this isn’t something I (or anyone at the moment) would have a firm answer on but it is something that we can at least speculate about and discuss.

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How much will that be is a good question. The best that we can do to estimate anything is to look at the Packers financials which separate their revenue into National and Local income. Last year the Packers received National revenue of $274.3 million with $203.7 million coming from local income. The prior year the numbers were $255.9 and $199 million. Now the Packers may be understated a bit since they are considered a smaller market team and I don’t think these numbers would make it to the players share the last few years, but it would be close so lets say a fair estimate is that 45% of the league revenue is made up of local revenues and the rest comes from the revenue share from the big media packages.

Clearly this is going to be a big number. Based on the recent growth I think the Packers would likely have expected around $208 or $209 million in revenues. Lets just call it $210 and pretend that that goes for all teams. If you eliminate 70% of that figure about $78M of the losses would be attributed to the owners and $69M would be attributed to the players. Currently there is about an 80-20 split between salary cap and benefits for the player distribution which would mean we would be look at a decrease of around $55 million in cap space, assuming that the benefits are not sunk at a certain number, in which case the cap loss would be more. If you lost all local revenues you would probably be looking at an $80 million loss in cap space while a 40% loss would result in a $31 million drop in cap room.

None of this takes into account the loss of national revenues but even if that is a small number (and there will likely be some loss) my guess is that you are looking at the cap to drop anywhere from $40 million from projections to $85 million from projections for 2021. This would assume that 2021 growth remains steady pace from where 2020 was expected to be. We had projected a cap of about $215 million in 2021 based on players share increasing from 47 to 48% so anywhere from $130 million to $175 million. $130 million is where the NFL was in 2014 to give some context to it.

 

The higher number would result in about 14 teams projecting to be over the salary cap in 2021 and that doesn’t include rookies from this year since none are signed yet, so probably half the NFL. The big number would see all but four teams over the cap and really is not even workable.

 

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But would there really be a reason to carry the player who is going to earn between $3 and $9 million who may be a situational player or one only on the team due to some cap considerations in 2020? Teams keep players sometimes hoping they can get one last year out of them if the cost to cut and cost to keep are close, but you can probably throw all of that out the window if you are expected to lose $100 million on the year and still face a situation next year where you have to make crazy decisions to be cap compliant and to find ways to make up for all the money that was lost in the Covid crisis. Cutting now and saving the salary lessens your losses on the year and increases your cap room the next year assuming the player was a likely cut anyway.

In addition if there is no season there is no reason to even consider paying players in the last year of their contract if their contracts will expire anyway or paying players who are of limited contribution anyway to the team.

 

 

[MOSteelers56]

Oh no, the billionaires are going to have to pay money to keep the teams afloat. Boo hoo.

Maybe this will be a wake up call to the people who “Use sports as an escape” but then never actually pay attention to society. They’re not on our side, folks. I don’t care how much you like their teams.

[jebrick]

Or the salary cap drops $80M.  Who are you keeping?  Who are you cutting.  Green Bay is not owned by a Billionaire  I would be shocked if the Rooneys Had a huge amount of cash to just absorb a hit like that..

Edited May 7, 2020 by jebrick

[MOSteelers56]

17 minutes ago, jebrick said:

Or the salary cap drops $80M.  Who are you keeping?  Who are you cutting.  Green Bay is not owned by a Billionaire  I would be shocked if the Rooneys Had a huge amount of cash to just absorb a hit like that..

Then the league collapses. That would stink, but live by the “free market” die by the “free market.” I’m a tad more worried about society itself collapsing then a couple billionaires not being able to pay their bills. Welcome to the real world. 

It is an interesting take, @jebrick. I’m not arguing with you personally. Just the corrupt system we’re all living in.

[turtle28]

43 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

Then the league collapses. That would stink, but live by the “free market” die by the “free market.” I’m a tad more worried about society itself collapsing then a couple billionaires not being able to pay their bills. Welcome to the real world. 

It is an interesting take, @jebrick. I’m not arguing with you personally. Just the corrupt system we’re all living in.

The league makes $ off it's TV contract and endorsements. Even w/o fans they're going to make their $, especially the owners. The worst I could see happening is that player's salaries shrink possibly due to COVID-19 but, I don't see the league going away bc of all the TV $. For 50 years most people watch the NFL on TV, and not at the actual game. Personally, I hate the gameday experience. I only go to games now if someone gives me tickets.

Edited May 7, 2020 by turtle28

[jebrick]

roughly 50% of their revenue is local.  They can negotiate with the players now and it is in the player's best interests to make a deal.  Otherwise they will figure the cap on the new revenue 

[bigben07MVP]

Schedule gets released tonight...we are ranked the 2nd easiest schedule of 2020 based on 2019 record I believe. 

Main thing I’m hoping for is an easier first 4 weeks to allow Ben to get back into his groove. Also no Xmas or Thanksgiving games please.

I also plan on going to the @ NY Giants game so hoping that is scheduled before it’s 0 degrees outside. 

[August4th]

looks like we play thanksgiving against B-more

I remember thinking why we never play on thanksgiving, but now it feels like we play on that day or Christmas primetime game every other yr

12 minutes ago, bigben07MVP said:

Schedule gets released tonight...we are ranked the 2nd easiest schedule of 2020 based on 2019 record I believe. 

Main thing I’m hoping for is an easier first 4 weeks to allow Ben to get back into his groove. Also no Xmas or Thanksgiving games please.

I also plan on going to the @ NY Giants game so hoping that is scheduled before it’s 0 degrees outside. 

rumor is that the giants game will be on Monday

[turtle28]

37 minutes ago, bigben07MVP said:

Schedule gets released tonight...we are ranked the 2nd easiest schedule of 2020 based on 2019 record I believe. 

Main thing I’m hoping for is an easier first 4 weeks to allow Ben to get back into his groove. Also no Xmas or Thanksgiving games please.

I also plan on going to the @ NY Giants game so hoping that is scheduled before it’s 0 degrees outside. 

I’ve heard the AFC North will play the NFC East the first month. That’s should be at least 3 wins for the Steelers to start the season off, if not 4.

[August4th]

opening on the road..again

 

[MOSteelers56]

Definitely not a cake walk schedule. I think we could start 1-3. The giants aren’t slouches either. 

[bigben07MVP]

@ NYG - W

VS DEN - W

VS HOU - W

@ TEN - W

VS PHI - L

VS CLE - W

@ BAL - L

@ DAL - L

VS CIN - W

@ JAX - W

VS BAL - W

VS WAS - W

@ BUF - L

@ CIN - W

VS IND - W

@ CLE - L

This is my best guess at how I see the season going. 11-5 and will be close on who wins the division between us and the Ravens but we get in the playoffs regardless. Games I’m most looking forward to:

- @ Cowboys Week 9 4:25

- @ NYG Week 1 MNF (I’ll be there)

- @ JAX (I’ll be there)

- Home VS Ravens Thanksgiving TNF

- @ Bills Prime time game late in the season, that will be a cold one.

 

 

Edited May 8, 2020 by bigben07MVP

[August4th]

I got 5th seed with a 10-6 record

[turtle28]

56 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

Definitely not a cake walk schedule. I think we could start 1-3. The giants aren’t slouches either. 

Giants aren't that good. They had the 4th pick in the draft and took an OT. They're probably around a .500 team and that's if everything went right, which it never does.