Week 12 GDT: Packers at 49ers (Adams or Bust Edition)

[Leader]

Interesting....

For no truly satisfying reason, I'm listening to the CHTV postgame podcast. Not easy listening music.

In any case, Andy Herman raised the possibility that the long TD to Kittles may have resulted from a blown coverage by Alexander - as opposed to King getting scorched/torched as it appears.

The speaker - Andy Herman - admitted he had to see the tape closer to confirm coverage responsibilities - but its the first I've heard the possibility even it might not have been Kings fault.

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

23 minutes ago, Leader said:

Interesting....

For no truly satisfying reason, I'm listening to the CHTV postgame podcast. Not easy listening music.

In any case, Andy Herman raised the possibility that the long TD to Kittles may have resulted from a blown coverage by Alexander - as opposed to King getting scorched/torched as it appears.

The speaker - Andy Herman - admitted he had to see the tape closer to confirm coverage responsibilities - but its the first I've heard the possibility even it might not have been Kings fault.

Grading CB play off the TV feed is problematic at best.

Watching the feed, one could argue that maybe Alexander should have dropped deeper once the two receiving threats went to the other side of the field, but Kittle sure looks like he is King's responsibility and just gets King turned around the wrong way.

 

Edited November 25, 2019 by Ragnar Danneskjold

[Leader]

41 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

Grading CB play off the TV feed is problematic at best. Watching the feed, one could argue that maybe Alexander should have dropped deeper once the two receiving threats went to the other side of the field, but Kittle sure looks like he is King's responsibility and just gets King turned around the wrong way.

Agree - and that was pretty much Herman's take. That if the GBPs were in cover three or three deep safety - than Alexander probably bears more responsibility than King for that Kittle reception. In any case, he wasnt sure of the coverage scheme - said he's have to check it (or rely on Fennel's input....) to know for sure.

I just thought to mention it here because the dominant theme seems to be King screwed up. It certainly looked that way visually on TV at least.

So - a matter to be continued

[Leader]

From the CHTV podcast:

Outside of Adams - MVS/Lazard/Kumerow + Allison had (total): 10 targets / 4 catches for a total of 23 yards.

Like I said somewhere else.....this game produced some eye popping bad stats.

Allision over the last four games? 9 catches for 43yards.

 

[Striker]

All 22 of the TD. Looks like Alexander blew it.

[Cpdaly23]

6 hours ago, St Vince said:

Congrats to SF. All those top 5 picks over the last 5 years turned them into a power house. I'm about ready for the NFL to employ the draft Lottery. Teams that tank their way to the top shouldn't be rewarded. I's first time GM John Lynch really a genius?  Or did he benefit from racking up on top 5 talent over his short stint as GM.

Ripping off the bears in the trubisky trade certainly didn’t hurt either.

[AlexGreen#20]

Where are people getting the All-22 from? It's not available to the public yet?

[Striker]

28 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Where are people getting the All-22 from? It's not available to the public yet?

Does the media get it first?

[AlexGreen#20]

6 minutes ago, Striker said:

Does the media get it first?

Don't think so

[TransientTexan]

6 hours ago, Forge said:

Just FYI, this is inaccurate to a degree. Arik Armstead was like the 17th pick in the draft. Deforest Buckner was the 7th pick in a draft that was absolutely stacked at the top. There are only 2 top 5 (actually top 3) picks on that defense, and that is Bosa and Thomas, and the latter has been a complete and total bust. Fred Warner was a third round pick. Dre Greenlaw was a fifth round pick. DJ Jones was a late 6th round pick. Ronald Blair (hurt now) was a 5th round pick, and Ford was acquired through a trade. On the back end, Moseley was an undrafted free agent and Spoon was a third round pick.  Ward was a late first round pick six years ago. Tartt was a second round pick, and Sherm was a free agent acquisition. 

And it's not like the 49ers intentionally tanked to get Bosa. Jimmy G tore an ACL in game 3 and we were riding it out with CJ Beathard and Nick Mullens last year. 

The 49ers have had 2 top 5 picks in the last 15 years, but they just happened to occur in the last 4 years (with one of them being a bust). He's definitely not a genius. He and Shanny have whiffed hard on some picks, but managed to break through by getting steals later on. Thomas / Foster / Pettis are all pretty big busts. CJ beathard was Shanny's handpicked QB, bust. Joe Williams the same thing at running back. They've offset this with Nick Mullens (UDFA), Matt Breida (UDFA), getting Kittle in the 5th round, etc. He's also whiffed on some big money FA signings. 

I'd still give Shanny more credit than Lynch, for sure. 

Thanks for the info. I agree, I’m not sure I would accuse anyone of intentionally tanking (cept maybe Miami this yr). But I would also add that just because a percentage of the high picks didn’t pan out doesn’t mean the overall amount of draft capital didn’t statistically help. It gives a team much more margin for error to miss on picks  and still come up with a lot of talent on cheap rookie deals, which allows the team to use the extra money on FA’s & to receive player salaries in trade. If you get more swings at the plate before you strike out, it’s easier to get hits, even if the one you eventually make contact on was tough to reach.

To one extent or another, NFL teams use the widely publicized ‘draft pick value chart’ to base trades off of. If we look at this chart, over the last 4 drafts, SF has had 11,660.7 points of total draft capital value (incl. 8012.8 defense, 3573.9 offense, 74 special teams). 11,660.7 is about 2915 per year, which seems about the avg amount of capital for a team picking in the #5 slot, or higher. 

For reference for GB fans, TT had 10,406.9 total points of capital (6825.4 defense, 3581.5 offense) over his last EIGHT drafts (2010-17). So SF (and teams in a similar situation) had basically 8 drafts worth of capital stacked into 4 years. 

 

Edited November 26, 2019 by TransientTexan

[MrBobGray]

8 hours ago, TheBitzMan said:

This version of Rodgers is depressing. His inversion for INT's has created the QB that lacks anticipation and holds the ball when there are plays to be made. His prior abilities to slip out of sacks has inflated his confidence to a point where he thinks he can get out of everything. 

If a team gets early and consistent pressure on him, this offense is toast. He either drops his eyes and tries to escape almost instantly, he chucks it down the sideline with little no chance of a completion or he just stands there refusing to throw into any sort of tight window resulting in a sack. 

The only way for this offense will do anything against a very good defense is for Rodgers to completely alter the way he has played for the majority of the past two years or for LaFleur to become a magician and scheme wide open receivers on the first read regularly. 

This hurts my soul.

Unfortunately, this is 100% my reading as well, including the extreme difficulty in fixing it.  Literally the only thing that gives me hope is that we've seen him play that way this year; he stood in there against the Raiders and delivered some nice throws even as he had pressure coming down at him.  Clearly, he's capable of playing that way even today; the question is how you incentivize him into actually doing it consistently.

[Leader]

Acme Packing - Packers Week 12 Snap Counts

OFFENSE (80 plays)

Quarterbacks - Aaron Rodgers 68, Tim Boyle 12
Running Backs - Aaron Jones 41, Jamaal Williams 39, Danny Vitale 9
Wide Receivers - Davante Adams 60, Geronimo Allison 54, Allen Lazard 52, Marquez Valdes-Scantling 30, Jake Kumerow 22
Tight Ends - Jimmy Graham 38, Marcedes Lewis 28, Robert Tonyan 27
Offensive Linemen - David Bakhtiari 80, Elgton Jenkins 80, Corey Linsley 80, Billy Turner 80, Alex Light 71, Bryan Bulaga 9 

DEFENSE (48 plays)

Defensive Linemen - Kenny Clark 42, Dean Lowry 27, Tyler Lancaster 21, Kingsley Keke 8, Montravius Adams 6
Outside Linebackers - Za’Darius Smith 40, Preston Smith 40, Kyler Fackrell 19, Rashan Gary 13
Inside Linebackers - Blake Martinez 48, B.J. Goodson 13, Oren Burks 1
Safeties - Adrian Amos 48, Darnell Savage 46, Ibraheim Campbell 21
Cornerbacks - Jaire Alexander 48, Kevin King 34, Tramon Williams 33, Chandon Sullivan 20

SPECIAL TEAMS LEADERS - Oren Burks 26, Ty Summers 26, Tony Brown 24, Tremon Smith 22, Ibraheim Campbell 21, Danny Vitale 18, Chandon Sullivan 14

///////////

I didnt see the inactive list but presume Sternberger wound up being a healthy scratch.

[Gopackgonerd]

10 hours ago, St Vince said:

Congrats to SF. All those top 5 picks over the last 5 years turned them into a power house. I'm about ready for the NFL to employ the draft Lottery. Teams that tank their way to the top shouldn't be rewarded. I's first time GM John Lynch really a genius?  Or did he benefit from racking up on top 5 talent over his short stint as GM.

I don't think the Niners purposely lost for 5 years. The teams that suck are going to suck no matter what throughout the year, tanking really only matters when you get towards the end of the year when you're trying to out suck for the top pick. You also can still draft **** if you have top 5 picks. I wouldn't call him a genius, but you still gotta draft the right players and he did.

Edited November 26, 2019 by Gopackgonerd

[coachbuns]

2 minutes ago, Gopackgonerd said:

I don't think the Niners purposely lost for 5 years. The teams that suck are going to suck no matter what throughout the year, tanking really only matters when you get towards the end of the year when you're trying to out suck for the top pick. You also can still draft **** if you have top 5 picks. I wouldn't call him a genius, but you still gotta draft the right players and he did.

When you have 5 years of picks in the top 10 your odds of getting a top notch player is a heck of a lot easier than picking in the bottom 1/3 year after year.  Yes, you have to hit but the odds are a heck of a lot better if you suck.

[Gopackgonerd]

5 minutes ago, coachbuns said:

When you have 5 years of picks in the top 10 your odds of getting a top notch player is a heck of a lot easier than picking in the bottom 1/3 year after year.  Yes, you have to hit but the odds are a heck of a lot better if you suck.

I get that but I don't think its simply rewarding teams for being bad. It's a fair way to balance out the league, and tanking for many years doesn't always equate to turning into what the Niners have turned into.