The Last Ride of Mitch Trubisky Offseason

[WindyCity]

These are the tea leaves as I read them based on what we know and what the beat guys have been talking about.

 

1. Pace is way more secure than we want and think. Between what he has built and the new facility he is locked in this organization, so my dream of #firepace is a long shot at best.

 

2. Pace needs Trubisky not to be an epic bust. He needs him to show that 2018 is closer to what he is than 2019, so while he will protect himself with veteran insurance he is not going to outright replace Trubisky and announce to the world that he is a bust.

 

3. There is legitimate blame to be placed on the WRs, lead the NFL in drops, the OL, have plummeted in the rankings, and the TE position. These areas will be addressed and offensive improvement will be relied on from these spots.

 

4. Pace now sees that Mitch needs to be supported so he has to build an offense around him that does not have weaknesses, because he is not good  enough to cover them up.

 

5. GMs either get fired, which is not happening, or they do not give up on QBs drafted high before their rookie deals are up.

 

Because of this we get

 

The Last Ride of Mitch Trubisky

 

 

[WindyCity]

Fire

OC Mark Helfrich

I am not sure what he does here, but the Bears RPOs and shotgun runs suck and he obviously does not have a magic touch at QB, so lets get someone in here who has some NFL play calling experience and who adds more to the offense.

OL Harry Heistand

The line has played like soft, poorly coached, no technique, and not clue who to block garbage. Part of that is on the coach and the Bears should explore someone who can at a minimum teach his guys the scheme.

QB Dave Ragone

Someone is going under the bus for Trubisky sucking. Ragone is a convenient scape goat as he has been here the entire time with Trubisky.

Hire

OC Anthony Lynn [Chargers HC]

Lynn is a former RB, RB coach, and OC for a run first attack in Buffalo and hopefully can come in and get the run game going for the Bears.

OL Bill Callahan [Washington OL Coach]

One of the best OL coaches in the NFL who has had success with OLs at every stop he has made. He can come in and help the Bears get the young replacements for their over paid OL ready and get a more power based run game going.

QB Joe Bleymaier [KC Assistant QB Coach]

I do not care if he got coffee for Pat Mahomes, he has at least been witness to a successful QB development and offense. He also has experience in what Nagy is trying to do, which should help in teaching the system to others.

[WindyCity]

2020 Cap Space: 17 million

Releases: [29 million saved]

OG Kyle Long 8.1 million
CB Prince Amukamara 8 million
WR Cordarelle Patterson 5.2 million
WR Taylor Gabriel 4.5 milliom
TE Adam Shaheen 1.2 million
K Eddie Pineiro 500k
TE Trey Burton 1.5 million

Cap Room: 46 million
Extensions [9 million saved]

WR Allen Robinson [Mike Evans] [+9 million 2020]
Old Money: 1 year 15 million
New Money: 4 years 68 million/38 guaranteed
Total Money: 5 years 83 million/38 guaranteed

Year 1: 3 GS/3 SB [6]
Year 2: 1 Salary/3 GSI/3 SB/3 RB [10]
Year 3: 5 Salary/3 GSI/3 SB/ 3 RB [14]
Year 4: 10 Salary/3 SB/3 RB [16]
Year 5: 14 Salary/3 SB [17]

Cap Room: 55 million

Re-signings: [21 million spent]


LB Danny Trevathan 3 years 25 million/21 guaranteed/6 signing bonus [7]

Trevathan is the heart beat of the defense and he is a consistent player. With Roquan’s issues and Kwik being a free agent the Bears should bring him back and ensure stability on defense.

Year 1: 5 GS/2 SB [7]
Year 2: 1 Salary/1 GSI/2 SB/3 RB [8]
Year 3: 2 Salary/3 GSI/2 SB/ 3 RB [10]


S Deon Bush 3 years 13.5 million/5 guaranteed [3]

The Bears need a reasonable priced SS to play beside Eddie Jackson and they need someone who can tackle consistently. Bush has shown he can tackle consistently and that he knows the defense and can produce at a much cheaper price tag than Dix.

Year 1: 2 GS/1 SB [3]
Year 2: 3 Salary/1 SB [5]
Year 3: 4.5 Salary/1 SB [5.5]

DE Nick Williams 3 years 6 million/3 guaranteed/3 signing bonus [2]

The Bears need to ensure that they maintain their DL depth and Williams has played well this year and shown more pass rush than any of us expected. A nice backup deal that keeps hi in the rotation seems fair.

Year 1: 1 Salary/1 SB [2]
Year 2: 1 Salary/1 SB [2]
Year 3: 1 Salary/1 SB [2]

OT Rashaad Coward 2 years 5 million/3 guaranteed [2]

Year 1: 1 GS [1]
Year 2: 3 Salary/1 SB [4]

LB Kevin Pierre-Louis 1 year 1 million
LS Patrick Scales 1 year 1 million
S DHC 1 year 1 million
OT Cornelius Lucas 1 million

DE Roy Robertson-Harris [2nd Round Tender] [4]
 

Cap Room: 29 million

 

 

[WindyCity]

Free Agents [22.5 million spent]

QB Case Keenum [Washington] 2 years 20 million/12 guaranteed/6 SB [9]

The Bears need a QB that can compete with Mitch and provide a starting option if Mitch sucks again, but they also do not want to invest 20/season in a guy who may hit the bench or who isn't going to offer nearly that return on investment. Keenum can start when he has a good supporting cast and a defense that does not require elite scoring. He was playing fine for Washington before he was injured and Haskins replaced him. Best of all he is probably the best option on a more realistic budget and allows them to invest in a TE.

Year 1: 6 guaranteed salary/3 SB [9]
Year 2: 8 salary/3 SB [11]
 

TE Austin Hooper [Atlanta] 4 years 36 million/20 guaranteed/8 SB [6]

Hooper is the best TE available in free agency and while he is not an elite player like Kittle, Kelce, or Ertz, he is a productive player that can play on the line and split out wide. The Bears have gotten nothing from Pace busts at the position in Shaheen and Burton. Pace sucks at evaluating TEs so he should put the training wheels on and get the best/most productive one in free agency. This is an offense centered offense and a QB who had a decent season when Burton was playing and cared. Hooper steps into the U TE role immediately and gives the Bears a big athletic target in the passing game.

Year 1: 4 guaranteed salary/2 SB [6]
Year 2: 6 guaranteed salary/2 SB [8]
Year 3: 6 salary/2 SB/2 Roster Bonus [10]
Year 4: 10 salary/2 SB [12]
 

TE Ryan Griffin [NY Jets] 3 years 12 million/6 guaranteed/3 SB [3]

The Bears need multiple additions at the TE spot that are ready to play in 2020. They need someone to fill the Y TE role that can block and still be some what of a factor in the passing game. Shaheen could do neither. He was a pathetic draft pick by Pace and now the Bears need to get a veteran as rookie TEs take a long time to develop traditionally. Griffin was always more of a blocker in Houston, but in NY he has 4 TDs this season and has done more in the passing game. At 6'6" and 255lbs he has the size to play the inline position week 1 of the season and be a massive blocking upgrade.

Year 1: 2 guaranteed salary/1 SB [3]
Year 2: 1 salary/1 SB/1 RB [3]
Year 3: 4 salary/1 SB[5]
 

OLB Jabaal Sheard [Indianapolis] 2 years 10 million/5 guaranteed/3 SB [3.5]

The Bears are not getting nearly enough from their pass rush and they need to upgrade the #3 spot with someone who has started and gotten to the QB in the past. Sheard has experience with Pagano and at 31 he has started to transition to a part time role with Indy. He can play the run, get to the QB a little, and would bring a steady physical presence that Lynch has not been this season and that Irving has not developed into.

Year 1: 2 guaranteed salary/1.5 SB [3.5]
Year 2: 5 salary/1.5 SB [6.5]
 

S Mathias Farley [NY Jets] 1 year 1 million/500k guaranteed [1]

Played for Pagano in Indianapolis and has been a solid backup in his career and is a core special teamer. He gives the Bears a backup safety with some starting experience and some improvement on kick coverage units.
 

[WindyCity]

Draft [4 million spent]

2[45] OT Alex Leatherwood [Alabama] 6'6" 322lbs.

Charles Leno and Bobbie Massie are not bad OTs, but neither are difference makers, and neither is dominant in any phase of the game. Leno is soft in the run and pass blocking, and Massie is athletically limited in both. The Bears need to bring someone in at OT who is capable of more. Someone who can push either Massie or Leno to the bench and give them an OT that can move people and hold up in pass pro. Leatherwood is an ideal blend. He has the athletic ability and length to hold up in pass pro and he has the size and power to be a difference maker in the run fame. Whether he starts at LT or RT he will upgrade the weak area that exists. For Trubisky having an average OL is not enough. He needs to be behind Dallas or Baltimore's line and that is going to require better OL talent and to slowly shed the under performing contracts.

2[55] OT Lucas Niang [TCU] 6'7" 328lbs.

It is painfully clear that Trubisky needs to have a very good OL in front of him for him to be successful. If he is pressured he does not make his read and fades off his back foot. Leno and Massie have been over paid trash this season and the Bears should upgrade and try to replace both of them. Leatherwood is drafted to take Leno's spot, who if he does can be cut for a 3 million savings, and Niang is being drafted to take Massie's spot. Niang is a monstrous OT who has incredible size and length. He is an athletic pass protector and is a physical player in the run game. He has the athletic ability to be involved in the screen game. If Pace wants to salvage Trubisky he needs an OL that is much better than average and the only way to do that is to draft it. If not for a hip injury Niang is probably a lock 1st rounder.

4. CB Dane Jackson [Pitt] 6' 190lbs.

The position that is taking the biggest talent hit in 2020 because of the needs on offense is going to be #2 CB. Prince is going to be a cap casualty and they do not really have the resources to replace him if they want to build the offense around Mitch. The Bears need to add options at CB to compete across from Fuller. Jackson, Tolliver, Shelley, Denmark and let the best man win. Jackson has good size and speed, he comes from an aggressive defense, and he has an absolutely insane number of passes defensed in his college career. When this defense is firing on all cylinders the Bears should not need a star at the #2 CB spot, they need competent play.
 

5. OLB Trevon Hill [Miami] 6'4" 245lbs.

The Bears need to start adding options at OLB, because I am not sure you should extend Floyd. He just disappears way too often and does not offer enough as a pass rusher to sink big money into him across from Mack's enormous contract. The Bears need some young, cheap, athletes to rotate across from Mack and they need to start developing them before Floyd leaves. Hill is a long twitchy athlete that has the physical tools you look for as an OLB. By standing him up his lack of bulk should be less of a problem. Hill has never been an accomplished pass rusher at Miami or Virginia Tech, but he can develop in the rotation and see what happens.
 

5. RB Najee Harris [Alabama] 6'2" 235lbs.

If the Bears are going to run the ball better and build off that to play action, bootlegs, and roll outs, they have to commit to running the ball well. To do that you upgrade the OL, TE spot, and you need a power back that can spell Montgomery and physically abuse a defense. Harris is a physical bruiser at RB that can fill that niche roll. Harris does not have elite speed and he does not catch the ball a ton, but the Bears need him to convert short yardage and run over people late in games. This is a pick to set a more physical tone on offense and fix the fact that they are one of the worst short yardage 3rd and 1 teams EVER.
 

5. QB Nate Stanley [Iowa] 6'4" 240lbs.

Pace needs to draft a QB almost only for the reason that he can say he did. Pace talked a ton about drafting QB every year and then left every egg in the Mitch basket. Pace needs a developmental QB that can provide another option. Stanley has a Nick Foles vibe physically and he has the tools to be an NFL QB. He gets time to work with Nagy and the QB room to improve and we see what we end up with in 2021.
 

6. WR Marquez Callaway [Tennessee] 6'2" 210lbs.

The midgets clearly do not work for Mitch as he has struggled to get the ball downfield to Gabriel and Cohen. They offer to small of a catch radius for him to make work. The Bears need deep speed, but they need it to have some size so that Mitch does not need to throw the ball through a key hole to get it into them. Callaway is not a finished project and he probably does not add much on the field in 2020, but he is 5th in college football in yards per catch 22.5 ypc. has elite speed, and can get deep. Callaway does not need to play in 2020, but he can develop while Wims and Ridley get more run.
 

7. NT Carlos Davis [Nebraska] 6'2" 330lbs.

The Bear were pushed around by the Raiders, Saints, Eagles, and Rams and I think it exposed a little that lack of run stuffing beef behind Hicks and Goldman. The Bears have really nice pass rushers as backup DTs, but they do not have a lot size. Davis is a gigantic fire hydrant of a man that can come in and be inactive most weeks, but who you can activate when you need some more power inside to anchor against the run and protect the LBs.
 

[WindyCity]

Depth Chart

QB: Trubisky/Keenum, Stanley
RB: Montgomery, Harris, Cohen, Nall
WR: Robinson, Miller, Wims, Ridley, Callaway
TE: Hooper, Griffin, Braunecker, Holtz
LT: Leno/Leatherwood
LG: Daniels
C: Whitehair
RG: Coward/Bars
RT: Massie/Niang

RE: Nichols, RRH
NT: Goldman, Davis
LE: Hicks, Williams
OLB: Floyd, Sheard
ILB: Smith, KPL
ILB: Trevathan, Iggy, Woods
OLB: Mack, Hill
CB: Fuller, Jackson/Tolliver, Skrine, Shelley, Denmark
FS: Jackson, DHC
SS: Bush, Farley

[topwop1]

Nice except give me a QB with more upside than Stanley.  Someone like Jordan Love.

[WindyCity]

2 minutes ago, topwop1 said:

Nice except give me a QB with more upside than Stanley.  Someone like Jordan Love.

He is going round 2 if he comes out. The round 4-5 QBs leave a little to be desired, but he has to at least take a swing.

[topwop1]

Then take a QB in round 2.

Two OTs in round 2 is a lot since both of them won't be starting next season.

If you are going to draft developmental players that early it should be a QB otherwise they should be starters from day 1.

Edited November 21, 2019 by topwop1

[beardown3231]

I really like everything here, except Harris is going top 90 if he leaves Alabama and I'd bet Hill goes round 2. I also think $13M for Bush is a tad much but it is what it is.

Good work, Windy.

[WindyCity]

4 minutes ago, topwop1 said:

Then take a QB in round 2.

Two OTs in round 2 is a lot since both of them won't be starting next season.

If you are going to draft developmental players that early it should be a QB otherwise they should be starters from day 1.

Who says they are not starting?

Our OTs are the definition of replaceable. Maybe one starts at RG. The Texans have 2 rookies starting on their rebuild line right now.

 

They may take a 2nd round QB to develop, but that does nothing for the "Save Mitch" plan in 2020. If Mitch sucks they will draft a QB in 2021 and have a much better OL to put him behind.

[beardown3231]

I thought Burton had like 5M in dead money or something if he's cut this offseason.

[WindyCity]

20 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

I thought Burton had like 5M in dead money or something if he's cut this offseason.

They still save money because his salary is higher.

[dll2000]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

Fire


OL Harry Heistand

The line has played like soft, poorly coached, no technique, and not clue who to block garbage. Part of that is on the coach and the Bears should explore someone who can at a minimum teach his guys the scheme.

 

I wrote a ton of very long posts about Harry Heistand this summer after watching Bears practice and deleted almost all of them all in editor.   

I didn't agree with what he was teaching or how he was teaching it and his lack of teaching at times and wrote long posts critical of that.  I watched his entire practice from 10 feet away.   

I doubted myself because I don't have his credentials or experience or rep.  People (rightly) pointed out that I was a little league/middle school coach and didn't have the chops to really criticize technique and methods of a guy with a big rep in industry and achievements.  

I agreed so I deleted them.  But I think my instincts were proving correct.  I have been to a lot of Glazier clinics and read many C.O.O.L. clinic articles all taught or written by NFL O line coaches current or former.    I have watched many videos by Mark Schlererth and other people/high level coaches who know what they are talking about on proper O line play and technique.   I was drawing from all that and didn't like what I was seeing.   I don't know all assignments, but I know fundamentals and I wasn't seeing proper fundamentals in practice.  I was seeing O linemen after O linemen getting their butt kicked in practice with Heistand saying and doing nothing about it.  

I was also super high on Bears potential for season and I didn't want to be Debbie downer posting negative thoughts. 

Anyway the proof is in the pudding.  Every Bears O linemen has noticeably regressed this year from last year and I didn't love the technique I was seeing last year.  Best fundamental technician in many games last year was the 20 year old rookie which was flabbergasting to me.   He still made many assignment mistakes, but his fundamentals were near perfect.  Why I thought he was going to be pro bowler this year.   He has been awful this year after a year and a half with Heistand.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[dll2000]

Here is my off the cuff 2020 QB plan.  Thinking most won't like it.  

I bring in Nick Mullens and Kyle Lauletta and let them compete with MT for starting 2020 gig.  Actually, scratch that.  I cut MT.   He is going to need offseason shoulder surgery.  He will be worthless until late summer.  Not worth the effort or reps to bring him back and get him up to snuff.   

 I let Mullens and Lauletta battle for top spot.  If no one shows starting or franchise potential I draft a QB in 2021.  You may get lucky and catch lightening in a bottle with one of them and found your guy.  If not you haven't lost any ground.   

I know that is not exciting.  But both players have shown flashes of being good in this league and they cost you virtually nothing.  

To me there is no point in bringing in a medicore or broken veteran to come in and play mediocre for 5 games and get hurt which is what always seems to happen.  And there is no point in drafting a 2nd round QB.  Your chances of hitting are so slim.   The amount of draft capital you would need to trade into high 1st round in 2020 would ruin Bears for an age.  

Only other alternative is swallow your pride trade your best asset (Mack) in offseason and draft a QB.  Maybe he has a no trade clause.  I don't know.