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Mariners Own 1B Prospect Evan White's Entire Career (6 years/$24MM + 3 COs)


ramssuperbowl99

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Just now, mse326 said:

Unless he knows of an injury the team somehow doesn't, yeah that is appalling.

Although I guess my opinion could change depending on what the salary for the COs are

Even then, if he was hiding an injury, the Mariners could try and void it.

I get that $24MM is life changing money, but dear god this is a bad contract.

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2 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Even then, if he was hiding an injury, the Mariners could try and void it.

I get that $24MM is life changing money, but dear god this is a bad contract.

I was joking on the injury part.

But $24mil through arb isn't that bad actually. $22mil in 3 arb years comes to a little more than $7M/yr. That is actually a pretty decent haul. Corey Seager only got $4M/yr his 1st year. I know he was injured last year but he had 2 5 WAR seasons prior. Correa only got $5M in similar circumstances. So unless he comes in as is showing MVP type stuff like Betts or Liriano $24M through arb years isn't much of a discount. Certainly worth it for the certainty. Especially since this gets him through arbitration 1 year sooner since you know they'd mess with service time if he didn't sign. Kyle Seager is a good comp. Very good through his restricted and arb years still only got $23.5M in those arb years. So $22M is not by any means a bad decision to take.

So the big issue isn't the money we know of, it's the 3 option years buying out FA. Without knowing what those figures are though it's hard to really say how bad it is. There is no reason for the Mariners to have agreed if it was a big amount though so I'm assuming it's low and therefore bad, but theoretically the numbers could be high enough to understand taking the deal.

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1 hour ago, mse326 said:

I was joking on the injury part.

But $24mil through arb isn't that bad actually. $22mil in 3 arb years comes to a little more than $7M/yr. That is actually a pretty decent haul. Corey Seager only got $4M/yr his 1st year. I know he was injured last year but he had 2 5 WAR seasons prior. Correa only got $5M in similar circumstances. So unless he comes in as is showing MVP type stuff like Betts or Liriano $24M through arb years isn't much of a discount. Certainly worth it for the certainty. Especially since this gets him through arbitration 1 year sooner since you know they'd mess with service time if he didn't sign. Kyle Seager is a good comp. Very good through his restricted and arb years still only got $23.5M in those arb years. So $22M is not by any means a bad decision to take.

So the big issue isn't the money we know of, it's the 3 option years buying out FA. Without knowing what those figures are though it's hard to really say how bad it is. There is no reason for the Mariners to have agreed if it was a big amount though so I'm assuming it's low and therefore bad, but theoretically the numbers could be high enough to understand taking the deal.

$24MM for a 1B type isn't really that exceptional, since arbitration awards old school stats more than guys who get positional or defensive value. Maikel Franco got $2.95MM his first year, $5.2MM this past year, and would have gotten a raise on that amount had he not been a below replacement player. The guy has totaled 3 WAR over 5 years, and still made more than $8MM in only 2 trips through arbitration.

White is only guaranteeing $16MM more than that, and even though you could say its not apples to apples because he's a better defender, there's also enough GG hype from prospect guys that he might actually be compensated for some of that. Randall Grichuk turned good defense at a not valuable position into $2.8MM, $5MM, and then a 5 year/$52MM extension. He didn't even really play well, and all the upside that you'd imagine would be there on White's deal if the club options are massive was still available.

 

Since this is the same deal in years, MLB experience, and guaranteed dollars that Scott Kingery signed, we are probably safe to use his club options as a barometer. They were $13MM, $14MM, and $15MM, which makes this deal an awfully cheap giveaway of 3 free agent years. 

EDIT:

Jesus it's actually worse. The options are averaging $10.5MM/year. Probably something like $9MM, $10.5MM, and $12MM consecutively.

 

Someone beat his agent with a hose.

Edited by ramssuperbowl99
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Hoping Dipoto can swing a similar deal with Kelenic. 

I understand the criticism, but it is 12 million NOW money, instead of waiting for it down the road. Sorta like this for both side (But I am biased). White gets his due up front instead of waiting. Hitting FA at 29 could still be very lucrative for White if he fulfills his potential.  Its risky incase he blows up in the next few years and plays at an All-Star level. Seattle is hedging their bets on White be a really good player, and they overpay in the first 2-3 years in the hope they will be UNDERpaying him in his prime. Then again, maybe he is DOA  like so many previous Mariner position player prospects, and the M's are on the hook until 2026. 

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2 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

$24MM for a 1B type isn't really that exceptional, since arbitration awards old school stats more than guys who get positional or defensive value. Maikel Franco got $2.95MM his first year, $5.2MM this past year, and would have gotten a raise on that amount had he not been a below replacement player. The guy has totaled 3 WAR over 5 years, and still made more than $8MM in only 2 trips through arbitration.

White is only guaranteeing $16MM more than that, and even though you could say its not apples to apples because he's a better defender, there's also enough GG hype from prospect guys that he might actually be compensated for some of that. Randall Grichuk turned good defense at a not valuable position into $2.8MM, $5MM, and then a 5 year/$52MM extension. He didn't even really play well, and all the upside that you'd imagine would be there on White's deal if the club options are massive was still available.

 

Since this is the same deal in years, MLB experience, and guaranteed dollars that Scott Kingery signed, we are probably safe to use his club options as a barometer. They were $13MM, $14MM, and $15MM, which makes this deal an awfully cheap giveaway of 3 free agent years. 

EDIT:

Jesus it's actually worse. The options are averaging $10.5MM/year. Probably something like $9MM, $10.5MM, and $12MM consecutively.

 

Someone beat his agent with a hose.

Again I gave Kyle Seager's numbers and he was pretty good in old school stats too. But also remember most of Evans value is his defense and power is his weak spot. That would get highlighted even more when comparing him to other first basemen. I have zero problem with the $24M through arbitration.

Those option's though are criminal

EDIT: Agent is True Gravity Baseball. Below is link to client list for whoever wants their team to find a kid to doop

http://www.truegravitybaseball.ca/baseball-clients

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1 hour ago, animaltested said:

Hoping Dipoto can swing a similar deal with Kelenic. 

I understand the criticism, but it is 12 million NOW money, instead of waiting for it down the road. Sorta like this for both side (But I am biased). White gets his due up front instead of waiting. Hitting FA at 29 could still be very lucrative for White if he fulfills his potential Its risky incase he blows up in the next few years and plays at an All-Star level. Seattle is hedging their bets on White be a really good player, and they overpay in the first 2-3 years in the hope they will be UNDERpaying him in his prime. Then again, maybe he is DOA  like so many previous Mariner position player prospects, and the M's are on the hook until 2026. 

Nope. 3 club options. If he is any good good he isn't a FA until age 32

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On 11/22/2019 at 11:26 AM, mse326 said:

I was joking on the injury part.

But $24mil through arb isn't that bad actually. $22mil in 3 arb years comes to a little more than $7M/yr. That is actually a pretty decent haul. Corey Seager only got $4M/yr his 1st year. I know he was injured last year but he had 2 5 WAR seasons prior. Correa only got $5M in similar circumstances. So unless he comes in as is showing MVP type stuff like Betts or Liriano $24M through arb years isn't much of a discount. Certainly worth it for the certainty. Especially since this gets him through arbitration 1 year sooner since you know they'd mess with service time if he didn't sign. Kyle Seager is a good comp. Very good through his restricted and arb years still only got $23.5M in those arb years. So $22M is not by any means a bad decision to take.

So the big issue isn't the money we know of, it's the 3 option years buying out FA. Without knowing what those figures are though it's hard to really say how bad it is. There is no reason for the Mariners to have agreed if it was a big amount though so I'm assuming it's low and therefore bad, but theoretically the numbers could be high enough to understand taking the deal.

Tbh the only reason the club options are so damaging is the massive market inefficiency whereby teams were willing to go ape **** and give a player 10+ year deals if they were 29 but wouldn’t touch a 31 year old with a 10 foot pole

That is slowly disappearing as teams are more reluctant to give mega deals to guys in their late 20s anyway, so unless you suffer a major injury or regression, its really not that different... you’re just taking a discount the first few years of free agency 

Not to mention the chances this kid develops into the sort of player who demands a 9 figure contract are like sub-5% anyway

He sold some of his upside to protect his downside.  Smart kid.  

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On 11/22/2019 at 3:03 PM, redsoxsuck05 said:

Watch the kid turn into Greg Bird.

Seriously 

They are giving this kid $24M guaranteed over 6 years and the potential to earn $60M over 9 years 

He was the #100 prospect for BA going into last year, MLB had him #74 at mid-season, maybe he cracks the top-50 

Lets go back 9 years and look at the first baseman in the top-100 and career earnings to date: 

Pedro Alvarez (8) - career earnings $21.2M

Dustin Ackley (11) - career earnings $10.5M 

Justin Smoak (13) - career earnings $25.2M 

Logan Morrison (20) - career earnings $19.2M

Brett Wallace (27) - career earnings $1.9M

Chris Carter (28) - career earnings $11.2M

Freddie Freeman (32) - career earnings $89.6M 

Yonder Alonso (45) - career earnings $29.0M

Ike Davis (62) - career earnings $11.4M

Lars Anderson (87) - career earnings $0.5M

Unless you are Freddie Freeman and there’s really only a couple of those guys in baseball you arent going to get a mega deal at first base. 

If this kid is a complete bust a la Brett Wallace he just made $24M he was never going to see, if he has a productive start to his career like a Pedro Alvarez or Yonder Alonso, this is pretty much market or better.  Even on the off chance he is Freddie Freeman he took a discount over the first 3 years of free agency, sure, but he’ll still make $60M and be a free agent in his early 30s. 

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5 hours ago, mission27 said:

Tbh the only reason the club options are so damaging is the massive market inefficiency whereby teams were willing to go ape **** and give a player 10+ year deals if they were 29 but wouldn’t touch a 31 year old with a 10 foot pole

That is slowly disappearing as teams are more reluctant to give mega deals to guys in their late 20s anyway, so unless you suffer a major injury or regression, its really not that different... you’re just taking a discount the first few years of free agency 

Not to mention the chances this kid develops into the sort of player who demands a 9 figure contract are like sub-5% anyway

He sold some of his upside to protect his downside.  Smart kid.  

Plus he’s an obvious flea

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