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Glass is half full


Golfman

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Honestly, the biggest red flag to me is that Jimmy Graham and Mercedes Lewis are on the team and he still won't throw to them over the middle.  Rodgers has always enjoyed playing with other vets of a certain status; he was effusive in his praise for Cedric Benson despite the fact that the dude played below average ball for like six weeks in Green Bay.  But despite being equally glowing about both of those guys, come game time it's outside all day.  I looked up the numbers on PFR:

2019 Left - 150 - 39.6%
2019 Middle - 73 - 19.3%
2019 Right - 156 - 41.1%

2014 Left - 179 - 34.8%
2014 Middle - 127 - 24.7%
2014 Right - 209 - 40.5%

2010 Left - 156 - 33.6%
2010 Middle - 102 - 22%
2010 Right - 206 - 44.4%

So, we can pretty clearly see that Rodgers has increased how much he's thrown left over the years, at the cost of throwing less to the right and middle.  Less throws to the right makes sense; the more you scramble the more often you'll throw right (as that's generally the direction a right handed QB wants to escape the pocket), and Rodgers isn't the scrambler he used to be.  But maybe it's MLF that's causing him to target the middle of the field less?

2018 Titans Right - 152 - 35%
2018 Titans Middle - 114 - 26.2%
2018 Titans Left - 169 - 38.8%

2018 Aaron Rodgers Left - 251 - 42%
2018 Aaron Rodgers Middle - 108 - 18.1%
2018 Aaron Rodgers Right - 235 - 39.3%
 

Guess not.  But maybe that's just how elite QBs work, right?

2018 - Tom Brady - targeted the middle on 149 of 570 throws, 26.2%
2018 - Patrick Mahomes - targeted the middle on 135 of 580 throws, 23.2%
2011 - Aaron Rodgers - targeted the middle on 143 of 502 throws, 28.4%

We can speculate all day about why this is going on, but at the end of the day the Packers offense is being hamstrung by a QB that now refuses to target a certain section of the field.  Targeting the middle of the field less than 20% of the time when arguably your second best receiver is your TE is madness.  Trust or not, you can't operate an offense this way unless you have absolute ballers on the outside, and the Packers don't.  Aaron needs to figure out what that big chunk of grass between the hashes is, and he needs to start throwing the ball there.

 

Edited by MrBobGray
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3 hours ago, gopackgo247 said:

never thought id see the day that "coward" would be used to describe our QB. have we gotten to that point already?

Yes, there are folks in here who are ready to bench the guy.  Of course all we have behind him is Boyle but that's Rodgers' fault too because of his salary so we can't afford a decent backup.

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9 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

Honestly, the biggest red flag to me is that Jimmy Graham and Mercedes Lewis are on the team and he still won't throw to them over the middle.  Rodgers has always enjoyed playing with other vets of a certain status; he was effusive in his praise for Cedric Benson despite the fact that the dude played below average ball for like six weeks in Green Bay.  But despite being equally glowing about both of those guys, come game time it's outside all day.  I looked up the numbers on PFR:

2019 Left - 150 - 39.6%
2019 Middle - 73 - 19.3%
2019 Right - 156 - 41.1%

2014 Left - 179 - 34.8%
2014 Middle - 127 - 24.7%
2014 Right - 209 - 40.5%

2010 Left - 156 - 33.6%
2010 Middle - 102 - 22%
2010 Right - 206 - 44.4%

So, we can pretty clearly see that Rodgers has increased how much he's thrown left over the years, at the cost of throwing less to the right and middle.  Less throws to the right makes sense; the more you scramble the more often you'll throw right (as that's generally the direction a right handed QB wants to escape the pocket), and Rodgers isn't the scrambler he used to be.  But maybe it's MLF that's causing him to target the middle of the field less?

2018 Titans Right - 152 - 35%
2018 Titans Middle - 114 - 26.2%
2018 Titans Left - 169 - 38.8%

2018 Aaron Rodgers Left - 251 - 42%
2018 Aaron Rodgers Middle - 108 - 18.1%
2018 Aaron Rodgers Right - 235 - 39.3%
 

Guess not.  But maybe that's just how elite QBs work, right?

2018 - Tom Brady - targeted the middle on 149 of 570 throws, 26.2%
2018 - Patrick Mahomes - targeted the middle on 135 of 580 throws, 23.2%
2011 - Aaron Rodgers - targeted the middle on 143 of 502 throws, 28.4%

We can speculate all day about why this is going on, but at the end of the day the Packers offense is being hamstrung by a QB that now refuses to target a certain section of the field.  Targeting the middle of the field less than 20% of the time when arguably your second best receiver is your TE is madness.  Trust or not, you can't operate an offense this way unless you have absolute ballers on the outside, and the Packers don't.  Aaron needs to figure out what that big chunk of grass between the hashes is, and he needs to start throwing the ball there.

 

how are we so many weeks into the season and he still has not done it? does he not watch tape? i mean if we can see it i know he sure as hell can. 

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2 minutes ago, gopackgo247 said:

how are we so many weeks into the season and he still has not done it? does he not watch tape? i mean if we can see it i know he sure as hell can. 

No, he is a shell shocked coward according to some in here and is only looking out for #1.

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11 minutes ago, gopackgo247 said:

how are we so many weeks into the season and he still has not done it? does he not watch tape? i mean if we can see it i know he sure as hell can. 

I guarantee you he's well aware of his play. This isn't an accident, Rodgers is deliberately not targeting the middle; it's been ongoing since the start of 2018 at the very least (I didn't check 2017). Why he's doing this, and why he won't change even as his performance suffers only he really knows.

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I’m kinda surprised folks keep bringing up if AR hasn’t watch tape of himself to see all of his vagaries.  He’s well aware of his shortcomings.  But IMHO, I have a feeling he’s frustrated because he can’t change or perform at a higher level - to slow the game down enough in his mind to see everything unfolding.

Rodgers problem is not hubris - it’s that he’s too cerebral.  He stands at the LOS until the very last second trying to read every little detail of the defense. Problems arise with disguised looks and heavy pressure.  He just can’t adjust like he used when this happens, and almost every D coordinator in the league knows this.  Rodgers can overcome weaker defenses with less pressure.  Not so much against great defenses.

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3 hours ago, gopackgo247 said:

how are we so many weeks into the season and he still has not done it? does he not watch tape? i mean if we can see it i know he sure as hell can. 

I think that's a MLF thing...I just looked at some stats from his time with Tennessee last year and much of the passing is to WR's running boundary or deep patterns as well as the underneath screen stuff we saw against Dallas. FWIW, TE's were rarely used; but then again his TE corps were terrible.

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Well, did Aaron learn and adapt?  Let's look at the numbers against the Giants:

Throwing Right - 33% of Aaron's throws - 6 of 11, 10 yards, 0 TDs, 60 passer rating 
Throwing Left - 42.4% of Aaron's throws - 8 of 14, 111 yards, 1 TD, 106.5 passer rating
Throwing Middle - 24.2% of Aaron's throws - 7 of 8, 122 yards, 3 TDs, 158.3 passer rating

By jove we might have something here.  

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16 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

Well, did Aaron learn and adapt?  Let's look at the numbers against the Giants:

Throwing Right - 33% of Aaron's throws - 6 of 11, 10 yards, 0 TDs, 60 passer rating 
Throwing Left - 42.4% of Aaron's throws - 8 of 14, 111 yards, 1 TD, 106.5 passer rating
Throwing Middle - 24.2% of Aaron's throws - 7 of 8, 122 yards, 3 TDs, 158.3 passer rating

By jove we might have something here.  

Amazing how that works.

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19 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

Well, did Aaron learn and adapt?  Let's look at the numbers against the Giants:

Throwing Right - 33% of Aaron's throws - 6 of 11, 10 yards, 0 TDs, 60 passer rating 
Throwing Left - 42.4% of Aaron's throws - 8 of 14, 111 yards, 1 TD, 106.5 passer rating
Throwing Middle - 24.2% of Aaron's throws - 7 of 8, 122 yards, 3 TDs, 158.3 passer rating

By jove we might have something here.  

I heard some pre-game blurb that the NYG's were playing three rookies in their secondary. Not sure it thats draft and develop in action - or necessitated by injury -- but it would be interesting to know what positions they were.

Their Safety play left something (read: a lot) to be desired......

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For those looking for a Glass HALF FULL take, consider that the rest of the NFL North teams continues to be mediocre to be bad and they have a chance to be worse collectively in 2020.

Detroit is a full on dumpster fire and there is growing talk about the GM and the coach he chose being fired after the season.

Chicago has Trubisky at QB for likely another season, is going to have to cut some defensive talent (Amukamara, Travathan) before next season, and has no 1st round pick in the upcoming draft.

Minnesota has a lot of talent and Cousins has played well but the cap situation is really bad and there will be several longtime faces gone from what is the most-expensive D in the NFL this season.

No reason the Pack can't benefit from the rest of the North floundering as usual for the foreseeable future.

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