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Golfman

Glass is half full

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The glass half full item of the day is definitely that we can now afford to lose a game to the Vikings and still hold the division lead. Beat three teams that are a combined 12-27-1 and you've got it. 

The downside is that it's pretty tough at this point to get any higher than the #3 seed. 

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1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

The glass half full item of the day is definitely that we can now afford to lose a game to the Vikings and still hold the division lead. Beat three teams that are a combined 12-27-1 and you've got it. 

The downside is that it's pretty tough at this point to get any higher than the #3 seed. 

Actually if NOLA loses to San Fran and we win out we'd have the #2 seed based on conference record. Tall task going into MN and beating them, but if we think we're one of the best we have to be able to do that. 

You are correct in that we won't be getting a #2 seed in all likelihood if we do not run the table. 

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26 minutes ago, Golfman said:

Actually if NOLA loses to San Fran and we win out we'd have the #2 seed based on conference record. Tall task going into MN and beating them, but if we think we're one of the best we have to be able to do that. You are correct in that we won't be getting a #2 seed in all likelihood if we do not run the table. 

AcmePacking (from before last nights SEA/MN game):

In fact, 538’s ELO rankings show a big impact on the Packers’ division chances with this game, even if it does not move the needle on their odds of getting a first-round bye. A Seahawks win gives Green Bay a 72 percent chance of winning the NFC North, but Minnesota actually would be favored down the stretch if they win this game, dropping the Packers’ odds to just 45%. Either way, though, the Packers’ first-round bye chances sit at about 20%.

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Why is everybody so sad!  The vikings loss to the chiefs, a team we beat!  They almost got blowed out by Denver, a team we beat.  They losted to the bears, the Bears!!!  Also they lost to the Packers, a team that every packer fan on this forum believes is the worst team to ever play football.  If they losed to them, they must be even worse than the worst team of all time!

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1 hour ago, VonKarman said:

I think this is a 13-3 for us. Easy wins against Washington, Chicago and Detroit and a 1 possesion win in Minny.

I'd be happy at 12-4 and go from there.  In today's NFL, there are no easy wins.  I'd take a 1 point win in every game but my heart wouldn't like it.

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              Games vs Top 6  
  2019 NFC Playoff Seeding       Games vs Losers  
              Games vs Winners
    W/L Conf.  Div. SOS        
  NO 10-2 8-2 4-1 #11 SF IND @TENN @CAR
  SEA 10-2 7-1 3-0 #2 @LAR @CAR ARI SF
  GB 9-3 6-2 3-0 #13 WAS CHI @MINN @DET
  DAL 6-6 5-3 4-0 #28 @CHI LAR @PHI WASH
  SF 10-2 7-1 3-1 #7 @NO ATL LAR @SEA
  MN 8-4 7-3 1-2 #20 DET @LAC GB CHI
Edited by Kenrik
Missed SF

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Conference Tiebreakers
Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2
Head-to-head, if applicable. (For ties among three or more teams, this step is only applied if there is a head-to-head sweep
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory (record of all the teams they defeated that season).

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1 hour ago, Leader said:

AcmePacking (from before last nights SEA/MN game):

In fact, 538’s ELO rankings show a big impact on the Packers’ division chances with this game, even if it does not move the needle on their odds of getting a first-round bye. A Seahawks win gives Green Bay a 72 percent chance of winning the NFC North, but Minnesota actually would be favored down the stretch if they win this game, dropping the Packers’ odds to just 45%. Either way, though, the Packers’ first-round bye chances sit at about 20%.

Did we need the ELO rankings to know that?

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Seattle @LAR is going to be a tough game off a short week. It was a 1 point game earlier this year at SEA and Rams season is on the line. If SF beats NO this week, then we slide up to #2. I think its going to be really tough to get the number #1 seed. 

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I think Seattle is in for a let down at the Rams (who barely lost at SEA earlier this year) who are fighting for their playoff lives. I think SF is the better team vs. NO and responds with a win. I think that defense will suffocate Brees even at home. 

Good chance after Week 14 that the standings for the top 4 will be: 

1. SF: 11-2

2. GB: 10-3

3. NO: 10-3

4. SEA: 10-3

Edited by packfanfb

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22 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Did we need the ELO rankings to know that?

I hadnt seen the % information posted here before and thought you might find it interesting. If not, move along.

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3 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

The glass half full item of the day is definitely that we can now afford to lose a game to the Vikings and still hold the division lead. Beat three teams that are a combined 12-27-1 and you've got it. 

The downside is that it's pretty tough at this point to get any higher than the #3 seed. 

If we go 13-3 we will get a bye. Don't think 13-3 has ever not been a top 2 seed unless I'm forgetting something? 

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5 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

I think Seattle is in for a let down at the Rams (who barely lost at SEA earlier this year) who are fighting for their playoff lives. I think SF is the better team vs. NO and responds with a win. I think that defense will suffocate Brees even at home. 

Good chance after Week 14 that the standings for the top 4 will be: 

1. SF: 11-2

2. GB: 10-3

3. NO: 10-3

4. SEA: 10-3

I agree with this. In order to get the number one seed we would need to jump Seattle/SF and the tie breakers don't go in our favor. Currently both are 1 conference game ahead of us. Assuming they both lose next week then conference record would be on par. In common games we're going to lose to Seattle easily (they haven't loss to anyone we played and beat MN & SF). SF will be a tie for common games and we would lose the head to head. SEA & SF SOS is better than ours. 

If we want the #1 seed, then we'll need to get 1 game ahead of both SEA & SF. We would have to go undefeated and hope they both go 2-2 and they play each other which will garuntee a win & a loss.  

Head-to-head, if applicable. (For ties among three or more teams, this step is only applied if there is a head-to-head sweep
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory (record of all the teams they defeated that season).

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7 minutes ago, soup's not a meal said:

If we go 13-3 we will get a bye. Don't think 13-3 has ever not been a top 2 seed unless I'm forgetting something? 

13-3 would be shocking. 11-5 is more likely than 13-3

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6 minutes ago, soup's not a meal said:

If we go 13-3 we will get a bye. Don't think 13-3 has ever not been a top 2 seed unless I'm forgetting something? 

If we go 13-3, then the only way we dont get a bye is if NO & SEA win out. 

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