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Tanny "King of the" Hill- Should he be the future?


KingTitan

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1 minute ago, TitanLegend said:

No, he's not THAT good. Aaron Rodgers isn't that good, Patrick Mahomes isn't that good, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, etc, etc aren't/weren't that good.

The thing with those QBs though is when their stretch of absurd games stopped(Rodgers is the only other guy in NFL history to have a stretch like Tannehill has had the last 3 games), their "regressing to the mean" was still them being an elite QB. The question for Tannehill is when he does come down from this mountain, is he back to being an average to above average like he was in Miami, or is his "mean" great to elite?

I'm going to say somewhere in between average and great....so good. I think he's a good QB playing at an elite level right now. Henry is a necessary part of it though. He's literally a worm hole that sucks in safeties and linebackers which is making it easy on Tannehill.

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To further that thought, he's better than the Miami version of himself, but he's not as good as this historically great version of himself. Which is okay because that in between version is still a good QB and he also has Henry to lean on and a defense that is typically able to keep the score low enough to give us a chance if the QB play isn't all there (hi Mariota). I think Tannehill gives us the ability to beat/hang with anybody (which frankly we already had with Mariota at the helm, but Tannehill greatly enhances that ability).

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I think he's already gotten himself a lot of money... I'm looking 4/$90/$50 in guarantees... which is essentially Foles' contract.  An out after 2 years with 45-50M paid out (cap hits prorated over 3 years)

Even if they were to make it a 5, or even 6 year contract... we're looking at similar guaranteed money, and all of paid in the first 2 years.  Because we'd be prorating the SB over more years, the cap hits would be lower in years 1 and 2, but would carry more potential dead cap value when cut... but not enough to tie us to him beyond the 2 years, if that's the route we decide to take.  

Just for the sake of argument, lets say he gets a contact for 5 years worth $130M, $51.5M guaranteed... its all about structure.  None of the contract matters after the $50M guaranteed.  For visual representation, it would look like this 

  • 5 years/130M, $50M G ($30M SB, and first 2 years of salary)
  • Year 1, 5M salary (guaranteed), 500k roster bonus, 250k other bonuses (workout, etc), 6M prorated SB = 11.75M cap hit
  • Year 2, 15M salary (guaranteed), 500k roster bonus, 250k other bonuses (workout, etc), 6M prorated SB = 21.75M cap hit

At this point, we've paid him all of his 50M in guarantees, plus 1.5M in roster and other bonuses.  We can cut bait (or restructure) at that point, but would have 18M in dead cap if we cut him... so his 2 years at 51.5M would be spread as cap hits of 11.75M in year 1, 21.75 year 2, and 18M year 3 (not on roster) If we keep him, it becomes a year to year contract:

  • Year 3, 18M salary, 5.5M roster bonus,  250k other bonuses (workout, etc), 6M prorated SB = 27.75M cap hit... (If cut, 18M in dead cap = cap savings of $9.75)
    • The 5M roster bonus is typically built in here for the players benefit.  It's typically due early in March, forcing teams to make a decision early on if they're bringing him back or not, and if not, gives the player an early entry into the FA market (no team wants to pay 5M only to cut or trade the player later) 
  • Year 4, 25M salary, 500k roster bonus, 250k other bonuses (workout, etc), 6M prorated SB = 31.75 M cap hit (if cut, 12M in dead cap = 19.25M in cap savings)
    • If he's playing well enough after 3 years, and you don't wanna carry that 32M cap hit, this is a good time to restructure... push money back.  
  • Year 5, 30.25M salary, 500k roster bonus, 250k other bonuses (workout, etc), 6M prorated SB = 37M cap hit (if cut, 6M in dead cap = 31M in cap savings)
    • Very unlikley he'd see year 5 of this contract... he'll be cut before year 5, or restructured
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2 hours ago, Titans fan 617 said:

These next 3 games will be fun 

Either way he has earned an extension with the Titans

If he wins the division man will he have gotten himself a lot of money 

Hard to justify not bringing him back. 

Robinson would be crazy not to do so. 

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RT's stats have been otherworldly this year regardless... but in the 6 wins, he's put up:

73.65 comp %, 14 TDs, 2 Ints, 132.1 rating, 10.26 Y/A, 11.54 AY/A

The highest all time comp % is 74.4... 73.6 comes at 2nd... highest all time QB rating is 122.5... the highest Y/A all time is 10.9... and the highest since 1956 is 9.9... the highest AY/A all time is 10.96... just for comparison purposes how otherworldly he's been, especially in the wins.

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Whole article is worth the read for interesting stats and etc, but the ending for PFF's opinion:

Coming into this analysis, I thought the pure statistical measures would carry the day, sounding alarm bells for regression and confirming the expectation that Tannehill will regress to his mediocre self. 

But as I looked more into the fit of Tannehill with the Titans passing scheme, I was swayed by the potential for continued success in a scheme that has had success making flawed quarterbacks, like Jared Goff, into league-leaders in efficiency when surrounded by talented receivers and blockers, which Tannehill now enjoys.

Tannehill has never had problems throwing the ball well; it’s one of the primary reasons he had such high PFF passing grades early in his career. The issue has been his ability to elevate a supporting cast and play in systems that complicate reads, like Philbin's West Coast system.

Tannehill may have found his match with the Titans. If that’s the case, you can see his recent performance as an indication that he’ll continue to produce at the higher end of his range of outcomes. Even with expected regression, Tannehill is poised to remain a top-10 quarterback.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-titans-scheme-has-made-ryan-tannehill-a-top-10-quarterback

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3 hours ago, AirMcNair said:

Do you guys think that Tannehill is a potential Comeback Player of the Year award winner? I'm trying to think who else could really challenge him for the award. 

Yeah, he should win it, hands down. Jimmy G I think is a candidate, that happens to play for a much bigger market team. But he doesn't come close to having the same impact as Tanny did. 

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