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Why do teams hire unproven Head Coaches?


tannenballs

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Looking around the league, Patricia and Dan Quinn (Defensive coordinators for defensive minded head coaches) are likely going to be fired, and Zac Taylor (OC who didn't call plays) is 0-11.

Each coach they replaced had playoff experience. This thread isn't about whether it was right to fire Caldwell, Mike Smith or Marvin, it probably was. 

 

Why don't NFL teams go after proven HC like McCarthy or dip into the college pool where these guys run programs and deal with even more off field/big picture stuff than an NFL coach does? 

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"Proven" coaches - as in good coaches with an established record - very rarely come on the market. Teams will keep am above average coach well past their shelf-life because good coaches are so hard to comeby.

That means 80%+ of hires you're choosing between an "unproven" coach, and a proven loser.

I would ask the total opposite question - why do teams recycle the same known failures over and over again?

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18 minutes ago, ChazStandard said:

"Proven" coaches - as in good coaches with an established record - very rarely come on the market. Teams will keep am above average coach well past their shelf-life because good coaches are so hard to comeby.

 

This was going to be one my points as well. I mean, every now and again you'll get an Andy Reid type situation where it's just grown stale and a change of scenery is needed for both sides, but that is exceedingly rare. 

 

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16 minutes ago, whitehops said:

unproven head coaches are usually proven assistant coaches so it's not a complete gamble, and first year head coaches are signed to cheaper contracts than experienced ones

This is also a good point that deserved bringing up. Especially if the team is replacing a previous coach with a guaranteed salary with no offset. 

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3 hours ago, #1RAIDER FAN said:

Related question:

Why don’t we see a larger trade market or conversation around coaches? We see multiple firsts traded for players, but rarely even a discussion about coach trades.

Because no one trades a good coach.

Even for an epic haul.

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4 hours ago, #1RAIDER FAN said:

Related question:

Why don’t we see a larger trade market or conversation around coaches? We see multiple firsts traded for players, but rarely even a discussion about coach trades.

The last coach rumored to be traded was Jim Harbaugh (to Cleveland) back around 2014.

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4 hours ago, ChazStandard said:

"Proven" coaches - as in good coaches with an established record - very rarely come on the market. Teams will keep am above average coach well past their shelf-life because good coaches are so hard to comeby.

That means 80%+ of hires you're choosing between an "unproven" coach, and a proven loser.

I would ask the total opposite question - why do teams recycle the same known failures over and over again?

Yeah this is really what I wonder. Why the Jets thought hiring Adam Gase was a good idea is beyond me.

But yeah, it's not everyday an Andy Reid is available. Good head coaches tend to have and keep jobs, so the ones who don't have head coaching jobs are either already known failures or guys who are totally unproven. 

 

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4 hours ago, #1RAIDER FAN said:

Related question:

Why don’t we see a larger trade market or conversation around coaches? We see multiple firsts traded for players, but rarely even a discussion about coach trades.

Because coaching at the NFL level is overrated as a whole. Of the top 10 tenured NFL coaches here are their defining QBS:

1. Tom Brady

2. Drew Brees

3. Big Ben 

4. Joe Flacco & Lamar Jackson 

5. Tony Romo & Dak Prescott

6. Russel Wilson

7. Cam Newton 

8. Alex Smith & Patrick Mahomes 

9. Deshaun Watson

10. Kirk Cousins 

The bolded IMO are QBs that are consistently good week in and week out. Even the ones that are not bolded at the very least are generally above average NFL QBs during their heyday. QB & talent on the team matter a whole lot more than who is coaching them. Only BB has been able to IMO really cross that gap into making the team better than the overall talent and he has had the greatest QB of all time at a discount for a number of those years.  

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5 hours ago, tannenballs said:

Looking around the league, Patricia and Dan Quinn (Defensive coordinators for defensive minded head coaches) are likely going to be fired, and Zac Taylor (OC who didn't call plays) is 0-11.

Each coach they replaced had playoff experience. This thread isn't about whether it was right to fire Caldwell, Mike Smith or Marvin, it probably was. 

 

Why don't NFL teams go after proven HC like McCarthy or dip into the college pool where these guys run programs and deal with even more off field/big picture stuff than an NFL coach does? 

Because with established coaches, you know what you’re getting for the most part. McCarthy has a championship to his name, but most renowned coaches hitting the market aren’t doing so because they had such an awesome stint with their last team. Guys like Tomlin, Carroll, Payton, even Harbaugh, don’t hit the market often. Reid did and you can see how that’s paid off for KC. 

So that leaves teams with a few different options (if they don’t want to go for the recycled coach): a young coordinator looking to get a shot (Patricia), a coordinator who struck out as a HC but wants another shot (McDaniels), a complete wild card usually with less than desirable experience (Kitchens, LeFleur), or a college coach (Kliff). 

Really comes down to the whole “devil you know” saying. I could hit a home run with this new guy or just hope this career-decent guy flips a switch. At least in the first scenario with the new coach, he’ll be easier to fire if he sucks.

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