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Week 13 Games


Leader

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Favorites List 13.0

Green Bay over New York Giants (H)  -  (The shell shocked Packers get back on a winning streak)
Chicago over Detroit (H)  -  (No Thanksgiving magic for DET this year)
New York Jets over Cincinnati (H)  -  (Will CIN let down and win a game? Apparently so...)
Tennessee over Indianapolis (H)  -  (The Tannehill Titans aren't world beaters...but they're not bums anymore)
Philadelphia over Miami (H)  -  (An opponent Philly just cant afford to lose to...but they did)
Cleveland over Pittsburgh (H)  -  (A QB nicknamed "Duck" can beat the Bengals. Ain't happening here though...but it did)
Carolina (H) over Washington  -  (No way WA gets on a winning streak just before playing us. No way. Way)
Tampa Bay over Jacksonville (H)  -  (Might change this...but didnt)
Los Angeles Rams over Arizona (H)  -  (Could AZ actually do this? Nope.)
Los Angeles Chargers over Denver (H)  -  (The LAC. Always so close...but always so far)
Kansas City (H) over Oakland  -  (A good ole KC stomping)
New England over Houston (H)  -  (Changed my pick just before kickoff....to the loser. First impressions...first impressions)

Special Interest Games:
Baltimore (H) over San Francisco  -  (The Niners must die this week...and they did)
New Orleans over Atlanta (H)  -  (Would like to think ATL here...but they often disappoint...or not show up at all)
Seattle (H) over Minnesota  -  (Need a SEA win here...so going with the flow and picking them)
Dallas (H) over Buffalo  -  (Would like to think BUF here...just cant pick them...but I should have)

Playoff rankings:
San Francisco (10+1) :(
New Orleans (9+2)
Green Bay (8+3)  :(
Dallas (6+5)
Seattle (9+2)
Minnesota (8+3)

Week 12 record:  8 + 6
YTD:  103 + 66

Edited by Leader
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Looking pretty likely Thielen returns vs Seattle. Josh Kline at RG whose been missed a month or so with a concussion  returned to practice as well as was solid before the injury. Could be a barn burner on MNF. Whichever team makes a couple key plays on defense wins.

Homer prediction. 34-27 Vikings.

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34 minutes ago, KOTN-93 said:

Looking pretty likely Thielen returns vs Seattle. Josh Kline at RG whose been missed a month or so with a concussion  returned to practice as well as was solid before the injury. Could be a barn burner on MNF. Whichever team makes a couple key plays on defense wins. Homer prediction. 34-27 Vikings.

Should be a good game..but I suspect the 12th Man will slay Captain Kirk :)

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Adam Schefter -  Ravens’ S Earl Thomas to reporters today: “You think the 49ers are going to the Super Bowl? It could be, let’s see. We’ll just go out there and try to play the best football we can possibly do. And when the Super Bowl comes, whoever we play, they’re going to be in trouble.”

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1 minute ago, Leader said:

Adam Schefter -  Ravens’ S Earl Thomas to reporters today: “You think the 49ers are going to the Super Bowl? It could be, let’s see. We’ll just go out there and try to play the best football we can possibly do. And when the Super Bowl comes, whoever we play, they’re going to be in trouble.”

Hard to argue the point the way they are playing on both sides of the ball. 

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4 hours ago, Leader said:

All In games. Chips pushed to the middle......

Baltimore
Atlanta
Seattle
Dallas
Green Bay

You want mojo? This is BIG TIME mojo!
This is the weekend.

I think Baltimore is head and shoulders above the rest of the league to be honest. I think they are going to beat down the 49ers. 

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Although it's time to hope the Bears start winning a couple games to hurt their already tiny draft capital, it's really best if the Lions win today.  The Lions currently have the 7th overall draft pick.  Can't risk letting them get ANOTHER top ten TE.  lololololololol.  Remember when everyone was calling me out about Hockensen's first game?  He's got 26 catches on the season.  Disclaimer: He'll probably turn out good to great, but I don't know why it's so hard to understand that yes, tight ends still have a very steep learning curve. 

Anyhoo, also hoping for a Bills win to see if Jerry fires Jason.

And hoping for a Falcons upset over the Saints. 

I'd be thankful for all that. 

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1 minute ago, Outpost31 said:

Although it's time to hope the Bears start winning a couple games to hurt their already tiny draft capital, it's really best if the Lions win today.  The Lions currently have the 7th overall draft pick.  Can't risk letting them get ANOTHER top ten TE.  lololololololol.  Remember when everyone was calling me out about Hockensen's first game?  He's got 26 catches on the season.  Disclaimer: He'll probably turn out good to great, but I don't know why it's so hard to understand that yes, tight ends still have a very steep learning curve. 

Anyhoo, also hoping for a Bills win to see if Jerry fires Jason.

And hoping for a Falcons upset over the Saints. 

I'd be thankful for all that. 

You post a lot of really good stuff but this isn't your best work.

Most rookies face a really steep learning curve, none more than QBs yet nobody hesitates to over draft them. Hockensen probably does turn out to be a very good TE so if he does it was a good selection. 

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26 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Although it's time to hope the Bears start winning a couple games to hurt their already tiny draft capital, it's really best if the Lions win today. 

You'd better gas up the mojo machine and get it humming at a high pace if you want DET to win this game with an UDFA making his first start at QB. I mean - weird things have been known to happen on Thanksgiving games in DET - but........

29 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Anyhoo, also hoping for a Bills win to see if Jerry fires Jason.

All the groundwork's been laid. Bills win. Garrett is sent home for a cold turkey sandwich. The OC becomes interim.
We're talking about an Owner that's canned Tom Landry and Jimmy Johnson. Jason Garrett? Chickenfeed.
They're a machine that could probably run itself for the remainder of the season....but would they turn things around, win the Division and who knows what else later?

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Just now, Golfman said:

You post a lot of really good stuff but this isn't your best work.

Everything I post is my best work. 

Quote

Most rookies face a really steep learning curve, none more than QBs yet nobody hesitates to over draft them.

Difference is that everybody was saying Hockensen is an immediate star, NFL ready, best TE prospect.  It was all false.  My entire point leading up to the draft was how very very rarely rookie tight ends are NFL ready.  For no other position is the learning curve steeper.  Literally.  Tight ends essentially have to learn two things while other positions have to learn one. 

Let's look at this here... Think of all the receivers, offensive linemen, EDGE rushers, DL, defensive backs etc that have had stellar rookie campaigns.  Then, look at tight ends. 

There have been two (ONLY TWO) tight ends since the year 2000 that have had over 55 receptions in their rookie years.  BOTH of them (Shockey, Engram) were with Eli Manning, who throws to tight ends more than probably anybody.  This is easily verifiable by the fact that both of them had OVER 115 targets as rookies.  Their catch percentage (receptions divided by targets) were both below 60%.  They weren't great seasons, they were heavily targeted seasons.  Evan Engram had 115 targets on the year.  For comparison, no other rookie tight end had over 80 targets in their rookie years.  So for Engram, that was only 9 more receptions on 35 more targets.  And this is for ALL tight ends, not just first rounders.  When you look at first round tight ends... Yikes. 

Since 2000, first round rookie tight ends have averaged 29 catches on 51 targets.  That's a catch percentage of 56%. 

For comparison, Jimmy Graham THIS YEAR has 28 receptions with a catch percentage of 66.7%.  So if you get an average TE in their rookie year, you're getting the effectiveness of Jimmy Graham is this year.  Worse, actually. 

If they turn the corner and have a good career as so few first round tight ends do, you've still only got a tight end. 

Quote

Hockensen probably does turn out to be a very good TE so if he does it was a good selection. 

Ehhhhh, no.  Only way Hockensen turns out to be a good selection is  if Oliver and Gary both bust. 

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Some background on DET's starter at QB......

Ian Rapoport - The Lions traded for today's starter David Blough in the preseason, swapping 7th rounders with the #Browns. DET gave up as little as you can for a player: If DET pick is higher than CLE's pick, Browns get Lions pick and Lions get Browns pick. If not, the picks are not swapped. Basically, the Lions didn’t want David Blough to hit waivers. They secured him on their roster, believing something was there. We see a glimpse today.

 

 

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39 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Everything I post is my best work. 

Difference is that everybody was saying Hockensen is an immediate star, NFL ready, best TE prospect.  It was all false.  My entire point leading up to the draft was how very very rarely rookie tight ends are NFL ready.  For no other position is the learning curve steeper.  Literally.  Tight ends essentially have to learn two things while other positions have to learn one. 

Let's look at this here... Think of all the receivers, offensive linemen, EDGE rushers, DL, defensive backs etc that have had stellar rookie campaigns.  Then, look at tight ends. 

There have been two (ONLY TWO) tight ends since the year 2000 that have had over 55 receptions in their rookie years.  BOTH of them (Shockey, Engram) were with Eli Manning, who throws to tight ends more than probably anybody.  This is easily verifiable by the fact that both of them had OVER 115 targets as rookies.  Their catch percentage (receptions divided by targets) were both below 60%.  They weren't great seasons, they were heavily targeted seasons.  Evan Engram had 115 targets on the year.  For comparison, no other rookie tight end had over 80 targets in their rookie years.  So for Engram, that was only 9 more receptions on 35 more targets.  And this is for ALL tight ends, not just first rounders.  When you look at first round tight ends... Yikes. 

Since 2000, first round rookie tight ends have averaged 29 catches on 51 targets.  That's a catch percentage of 56%. 

For comparison, Jimmy Graham THIS YEAR has 28 receptions with a catch percentage of 66.7%.  So if you get an average TE in their rookie year, you're getting the effectiveness of Jimmy Graham is this year.  Worse, actually. 

If they turn the corner and have a good career as so few first round tight ends do, you've still only got a tight end. 

Ehhhhh, no.  Only way Hockensen turns out to be a good selection is  if Oliver and Gary both bust. 

Not true regarding Oliver and Gary. If he turns out to be a good 2-way TE (blocking and receiving) it was a good pick. Hindsight will always be 20/20 and you can't look at it that way. The idea behind the draft is to get solid football players and not bust in round 1 or 2 as much as possible. Almost 1 year in you are putting caveats on whether it's a good pick or not. Please don't come back and tell me George Kittle was a 5th round pick. Maxx Crosby was a forth round pick. Teams find talent at every position later in the draft, including QB, although not as frequent! 

Trying to compare a guy in the beginning of his career v. a guy at the end is silly. You actually know that. 

Anyway to you and all my fellow Packer fans, have a Very Happy Thanksgiving! Wishing you a little humility in your posting! It's a positive trait actually! 

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