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GDT 12/1/19 Week 13: 9-2 Baltimore Ravens vs 10-1 San Francisco 49ers


DreamKid

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I wonder how the rain will impact Lamar's throwing. According to what he said, it took Lamar some time to finally get adjusted to throwing an NFL sized ball. We've seen the difference from year 1 to year 2. 

But, is throwing a wet NFL ball more difficult for him? If I'm not mistaken, other rain games were @Pit, which was possibly his worst game throwing, and @Sea, where he was 9/20 (albeit with some drops).

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On 11/27/2019 at 7:39 PM, diamondbull424 said:

If the weather is solid for the game I feel confident here. I saw too many rushing lanes for an elite rushing threat like Lamar to exploit when the 49ers played against the Seahawks a few weeks ago and Murray has killed them with his legs as well. If the 49ers keep their same pass rushing arc with these insanely wide rushing angles, Lamar could surpass Mike Vick’s rushing record in this game, let alone needing a couple more.

I'd be very surprised if that changed. We run a wide 9 now, and obviously there are good and bad aspects to that. The line angrily attacks quarterbacks, but leaves huge lanes as you noted. Y2 and I have a weekly podcast for the 49er forum and we talked about that way back in preseason - we knew that this was going to cause a problem in the running game. But I don't think that you can change that for a single week when you really don't know how your game, which has been working so well, will react. So I think that they will probably stick with it. Obviously may make adjustments on the fly, but I don't see that particular thing changing to start the game. 

There has been a lot of talk in the forum about what to do. Some favor more blitzes, relying on the corners, I favor fewer blitzes (we are not a big blitzing team anyway), and hoping the front 4 can do some work (Pitt had a lot of success in this regard even though you guys won). I also prefer the idea of running three safeties constantly with out back up free safety spying Jackson all game (this may sound insane, but our back up safety has 4.35 40 speed, so he's probably the closest we have in being able to somewhat keep up with jackson in a footrace...of course, he takes terrible angles and isn't a great tackler, but it's sort of a pick your poison situation there). I think to start off, we have to rush 4 and see where it gets us. 

On 11/27/2019 at 7:39 PM, diamondbull424 said:

I’m also not confident that the 49ers have a corner that can stick with Hollywood Brown. Akhello is probably the best fit, but Hollywood looked the healthiest last game that I’ve seen him look and that’s a scary prospect for opposing defenses. The 9ers have a great front and some really good secondary pieces, but they’ve struggled vs the run, Lamar should be able to find rush creases, and I see Jimmy G as the kind of QB that Peters baits for a pick. Our corners matchup well. So I see a game where if weather doesn’t force it to become “ugly” we should win by multiple scores, perhaps 34-16, Ravens. We score a defensive TD and the offense scores on 5/8 possessions to keep the historic pace alive and well.

Eh...I mean, we just don't give up deep passes. A lot that is scheme. We tend to give big cushions, which is why we can get exposed underneath on quick passes, taking advantage of the over aggressive nature of the d-line along with the cushion of the outside corners. We have given up the fewest passes of 20+ yards in the NFL. Typically, teams just don't have the time to get it down field. Now, obviously Brown can fly, so that cuts down the time that is needed, but we are very good at not missing tackles at passes in front (obviously things happen - JuJu's long pass against Pitt and Andy Isabella touchdown being notable exceptions) and not allowing anything deep behind us. As a 49er fan, I'm not overly concerned about deep passes in this one, but that's just more confidence in the defense than anything else. We have largely shut down any and all receivers. Spoon allowed one catch between Godwin and Evans, I believe (Sherm allowed the others). Adams got nothing going for the Packers and Rodgers didn't complete a single pass longer than 10 yards down field. Tyler Lockett managed 3 for 26 against us, and he'd be a comparable player to Brown in my opinion. We've just largely stonewalled great receivers this year. This isn't an area of huge concern for me at the current point in time. 

I'm terrified of the run game though. I just don't know how we stop that. 

Also, you don't need to bait Jimmy G into picks. He will absolutely give you 1 or 2 on his own from his patented, "WTF" throws LOL. Seriously, good for one or two a game where he just makes a throw and you're like: 

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If the gameplan is to attack the corners, I do think that we are in trouble. I would expect a heavy, heavy dose of Kittle and Juice Check in this one with regards to the passing game. If we target the corners, I don't think that this ends well for us at all. 

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1 hour ago, Forge said:

I'd be very surprised if that changed. We run a wide 9 now, and obviously there are good and bad aspects to that. The line angrily attacks quarterbacks, but leaves huge lanes as you noted. Y2 and I have a weekly podcast for the 49er forum and we talked about that way back in preseason - we knew that this was going to cause a problem in the running game. But I don't think that you can change that for a single week when you really don't know how your game, which has been working so well, will react. So I think that they will probably stick with it. Obviously may make adjustments on the fly, but I don't see that particular thing changing to start the game. 

There has been a lot of talk in the forum about what to do. Some favor more blitzes, relying on the corners, I favor fewer blitzes (we are not a big blitzing team anyway), and hoping the front 4 can do some work (Pitt had a lot of success in this regard even though you guys won). I also prefer the idea of running three safeties constantly with out back up free safety spying Jackson all game (this may sound insane, but our back up safety has 4.35 40 speed, so he's probably the closest we have in being able to somewhat keep up with jackson in a footrace...of course, he takes terrible angles and isn't a great tackler, but it's sort of a pick your poison situation there). I think to start off, we have to rush 4 and see where it gets us. 

Absolutely should be a chess match. From what I noticed your LBers are very athletic and quick but aren’t the downhill type. Is that an accurate assessment? What is their coverage skills against opposing TEs? I saw against Seattle that seemed to be the weakest element of coverage. The passes to RBs and TEs, but beyond that I’ve only looked at bits and pieces of the Cards game.

 

1 hour ago, Forge said:

Eh...I mean, we just don't give up deep passes. A lot that is scheme. We tend to give big cushions, which is why we can get exposed underneath on quick passes, taking advantage of the over aggressive nature of the d-line along with the cushion of the outside corners. We have given up the fewest passes of 20+ yards in the NFL. Typically, teams just don't have the time to get it down field. Now, obviously Brown can fly, so that cuts down the time that is needed, but we are very good at not missing tackles at passes in front (obviously things happen - JuJu's long pass against Pitt and Andy Isabella touchdown being notable exceptions) and not allowing anything deep behind us. As a 49er fan, I'm not overly concerned about deep passes in this one, but that's just more confidence in the defense than anything else. We have largely shut down any and all receivers. Spoon allowed one catch between Godwin and Evans, I believe (Sherm allowed the others). Adams got nothing going for the Packers and Rodgers didn't complete a single pass longer than 10 yards down field. Tyler Lockett managed 3 for 26 against us, and he'd be a comparable player to Brown in my opinion. We've just largely stonewalled great receivers this year. This isn't an area of huge concern for me at the current point in time. 

I'm terrified of the run game though. I just don't know how we stop that. 

Also, you don't need to bait Jimmy G into picks. He will absolutely give you 1 or 2 on his own from his patented, "WTF" throws LOL. Seriously, good for one or two a game where he just makes a throw and you're like: 

I can see why you went right to the deep threat part. But that’s only half of what he presents. Brown has been very good (as you likely saw against the Rams), in getting a clean release off the LOS, quickly getting into his route, and then roasting his corner for great separation for the short passing attack. The two TD throws to him against the Rams and another short completion as well. The short completion he toasted Ramsey. The second TD was cover 3 and a longer pass but the first was man to man coverage where the corner just got roasted. His natural quickness and his work with his cousin Antonio Brown has really shown up with his ability to consistently get such a clean release. It’s so difficult to press him because of how shifty he is. We will see though. His long speed wasn’t much affected by his injury but his quickness being back makes him a dynamic short passing YAC threat once again (in addition to his deep threat ability).

You guys also have a formidable run game. We’ve made some improvements to our personnel on that front and I’m interested to seeing how they hold up against what you guys have to offer.

And yeah Jimmy seems to be good for that, which is why I feel Peters could pose some problems if he isn’t thinking his passes through. A poor read could instantly become a TD if Jimmy has such a brain fart.

So all in all this will be an intriguing matchup. It’s supposed to rain but not as much as last weekend, so I’m thinking it shouldn’t be a monsoon type NE/Dallas game but rather more of just your normal wet game. It should also start to lighten up slightly around game time, so we shall see how much that affects this game.

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1 hour ago, Forge said:

If the gameplan is to attack the corners, I do think that we are in trouble. I would expect a heavy, heavy dose of Kittle and Juice Check in this one with regards to the passing game. If we target the corners, I don't think that this ends well for us at all. 

Forgot to respond to this. Yeah I’m interested in how we decide to play that. I like Chuck Clark as a matchup against Juszczyk, but I’m wondering how we play Kittle. Do we mix Chuck Clark and Brandon Carr on him to look to contain him? Have a blitzed bump him at the line before rushing? Some combination there of? Should be interesting.

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2 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

Forgot to respond to this. Yeah I’m interested in how we decide to play that. I like Chuck Clark as a matchup against Juszczyk, but I’m wondering how we play Kittle. Do we mix Chuck Clark and Brandon Carr on him to look to contain him? Have a blitzed bump him at the line before rushing? Some combination there of? Should be interesting.

If I’m correct in that Kittle is their #1 target, I assume he sees a lot of marlon Humphrey on him!

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1 minute ago, Boodgyman5220 said:

If I’m correct in that Kittle is their #1 target, I assume he sees a lot of marlon Humphrey on him!

That could be the case, we just haven’t seen Humphrey shadow a TE yet. Generally it’s been Brandon Carr. If Humphrey takes that challenge though I’d definitely be interested in seeing how he performs. The 9ers receivers do have some speed though. Humphrey will probably be needed to contain Samuel. I don't think any of our other corners really matchup as well. Maybe Marcus Peters? But Samuel is explosive enough to get over the top and you probably don’t want to gamble.

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2 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

From what I noticed your LBers are very athletic and quick but aren’t the downhill type. Is that an accurate assessment? What is their coverage skills against opposing TEs? I saw against Seattle that seemed to be the weakest element of coverage. The passes to RBs and TEs, but beyond that I’ve only looked at bits and pieces of the Cards game.

 

Yes, I think so. Warner is definitely getting better in coming downhill (6 tackles for loss, which isn't awful), but I don't think that's his forte. He's becoming a nifty blitzer (2 sacks on Wilson, had the strip sack on Rodgers to start the game), but the linebackers are built to move side to side, run with guys, etc. Smallish, more athletic guys. 

It's somewhat hard to gauge the effectiveness against tight ends / running backs in the passing game, but largely, we have shut them down. We are third in targets and reception against for both,  and first in fewest yards given up out of the backfield. Even CMC struggled in that regard - he managed 4 / 38, but almost 30 of that came where he somehow ended up with Bosa covering him out of the backfield (not really sure what happened there). So under the traditional scheme and responsibilities, he was close to 3 receptions for 10 yards. The reason why it's hard to judge though is that those are largely bulk numbers, and despite blowing teams out, we actually somehow have the third fewest pass attempts against. Byproduct of the TOP, I guess. Still, the efficiency numbers wouldn't be ideal for them either. Tight ends have managed a whopping 6.65 yards per catch which is one of the best in football, and running backs 6.55, which isn't bad, but definitely more middle of the pack. 

There are games where there has been a little bit of a struggle. Drake had a nice game out of the backfield in the first game against AZ. Hollister's for Seattle is probably the biggest outlier though. He basically accounts for 25% of everything we have given up this year against tight ends in that single game. He went for 8 receptions on 10 targets, 62 yards and a touchdowns. All tight ends this entire season have managed 37 on 55 for 246 yards against us. 

The thing is, and there are still obviously big time games left to go, so it's a stretch to say that it will keep going, but assuming that this pass defense plays the way it has throughout the remainder of the season, it's not just good. Its actually historic. There's been 13 games where a quarterback threw for less than 100 yards; the 49ers were the opponent in five of those. We've allowed the third fewest passing yards through 11 games since 1980 (the vikings defense in 1989 was surreal). We are allowing nearly 100 yards less passing yards per game than the league average, which would be a record since 1950. We allow fewer net passing yards per attempt than we do rushing yards per attempt, and it's really not even that close (4 yards per passing attempt, 4.7 rushing yards per attempt, I believe), which I believe would be the first time that has ever happened (Pats are also on pace to do that this year) and the difference in net passing yards per attempt versus the league average would be the second best since the merger, I believe (once again the 1989 vikings, though they actually allowed half a yard more per passing attempt). Now, I wouldn't expect that to continue. We were helped out quite a bit early on in the season. Terrible quarterback opponents, largely pocket passers (we've been okay against the more mobile ones - Murray and Wilson's success is slightly overblown on a per play basis, but they have clearly given us more fits) plus a massive rainstorm in Washington, but it puts in perspective how good they have been so far. I don't know that the defense ends up being historically good, of course, but that's how they have played thus far. 

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1 hour ago, Boodgyman5220 said:

If I’m correct in that Kittle is their #1 target, I assume he sees a lot of marlon Humphrey on him!

I've talked with people about this in the past. Particularly fans of other teams. It came up when the Rams acquired Ramsey, for instance. For some reason, teams have not done this yet.

The only thing I can think of, to be honest, is that we run a ton more heavy personnel than the league. We run 21 or 12 personnel on basically 50% of our plays, which is only beaten by Minnesota (they run it on something crazy, like 58%). The difference between Kittle and guys like Ertz / Kelce is that the majority of his snaps don't come off the line. They come in line.  Last year Kelce and Ertz were off the line well over 50% of their snaps, while Kittle was below 50%. This year, only about 15% of his snaps I believe have come from the slot, for example, half that of Kelce, which is probably the optimal time to put a corner on him. 

Therein lies the danger. The 49ers like to run the ball, and Kittle is an amazing blocker. So if you take a corner and put it on him, especially when the 49ers are lined up in 21 or 12 personnel, that basically means you are running a nickel package, because you still have to put corners on Deebo and Sanders. But if you do that, it would leave you susceptible to the running game because Kittle will certainly demolish a corner in the blocking game and you're a little lighter up front. The only team that runs the football more than the 49ers is you guys. You could package that instead on a base defense, have a single high robber or something with a safety hedging up over one of the outside receivers, but then you are subject to man coverage on one spot and could easily get burnt deep with no help over the top. So it's a tricky coverage schematic just because the 49ers use him as more of a traditional tight end than a lot of the new age tight ends are used. 

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6 minutes ago, Forge said:

The difference between Kittle and guys like Ertz / Kelce is that the majority of his snaps don't come off the line. They come in line.  Last year Kelce and Ertz were off the line well over 50% of their snaps, while Kittle was below 50%. This year, only about 15% of his snaps I believe have come from the slot, for example, half that of Kelce, which is probably the optimal time to put a corner on him. 

Therein lies the danger. The 49ers like to run the ball, and Kittle is an amazing blocker. So if you take a corner and put it on him, especially when the 49ers are lined up in 21 or 12 personnel, that basically means you are running a nickel package, because you still have to put corners on Deebo and Sanders. But if you do that, it would leave you susceptible to the running game because Kittle will certainly demolish a corner in the blocking game and you're a little lighter up front.

Kittle is Gronk's TE1 throne successor, and there's really no debate. Fitting that he plays with TB12's old protege too. The flexibility players like Kittle and Gronk give an offense is invaluable. And it's why someone like TJ Hockenson is getting picked in the Top 10. Everyone wants a commodity like that on their team, and they'll gamble to get it. You guys are lucky to have him. 

I will say, Marlon isn't a typical CB. He's the most physical at the position in the league, and could play Safety or even Will LB with zero issue. No, I really wouldn't want to rely on him against Kittle in the running game though. I think Kittle will mostly draw Bynes, Clark, Bowser etc, with the safeties paying a mindful eye. This is definitely a game where I wish we didn't have Pernell Mcphee on IR, but I'm excited to see how our other guys look vs your rushing attack.

Also I predict Hayden Hurst-Deebo Samuel, Ronnie Stanley-Mike McGlinchey, and Mark Andrews-George Kittle jersey swaps. 

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7 minutes ago, Forge said:

As long as they don't try and swap with Pettis :D:D

Maybe he remembered Odell's stats and said F it. For all of the flashy plays and antics of OBJ, what I remember most fondly is that video of him coked up asking the girl he was with to smash his friend in the room. As a Ravens' fan, finding out a Browns' WR has cuckold tendencies is pretty special gift lol. That's more pathetic than his 2 TDs on the season. And maybe even more pathetic than his 'fighting ability', which resulted in this when he went after Marlon Humphrey-

Related image

 

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59 minutes ago, DreamKid said:

 

Boykin has had a few balls dropped. We tried force feeding him the ball vs the Texans when it looked like Lamar would “have a bad game”. I’d be interested in seeing if Jaleel Scott has more automatic hands, especially considering the rainy conditions. Though the offense might just decide to go with Roberts seeing more playing time instead.

On another note. Good news is that while it’s wet, the accumulated rainfall from all the forecasts I can see all measure the projected rainfall for the day to be roughly 0.1-0.25 in. So unless it does most of that damage during the game, it should just be a consistent light rain. Wet enough to make the field slick, but not necessarily wet enough to severely impact ball snapping, throwing, and receiving. It’s possible that the field still could’ve maintained some quality grip to it depending on when the tarp was uncovered.

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