GDT 12/1/19 Week 13: 9-2 Baltimore Ravens vs 10-1 San Francisco 49ers

[J-ALL-DAY]

1 minute ago, M.10.E said:

Agree to disagree. I thought Lamar deviated from his normal standard a lot more than Jimmy G did with the rain. Yes I know your defense is great, but Lamar missed some easy throws that he hits 9/10 times and same with his runs.

For sure, there were some throws from him that were off the mark. But like we are on pace to allow the least amount of passing yards in damn near 40 years for a reason. The pass defense just hardly gives up any big plays. I feel like that is a big component of the Ravens passing game. Pretty much just eliminates guys like Hollywood Brown. Doesn't mean you guys can't win a rematch because you certainly can. That run game will always be dominant period. 

[Forge]

11 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

tbh Jimmy G didn't do much passing either. He just threw slants all day long. It was super predictable.

That's 75% of our passing offense lol

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 minute ago, Forge said:

That's 75% of our passing offense lol

True. It was annoying to watch because I saw it coming a mile away. If you guys got into a 2nd and long, you'd throw a slant to the best matchup to setup 3rd and manageable, then call whatever and get to 4th and short then go for it.

[diamondbull424]

3 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Jimmy G had more success than Lamar throwing the ball, but our passing game was most definitely impacted. Both QBs were off the mark a bit, but that's not a surprise with the weather conditions. I do feel like in better conditions our passing game has more of a chance to be successful against your defense than the other way around. Our passing defense just doesn't give much at all and is especially good at preventing the big plays, so Jackson would just have to throw a bunch of check downs. 

Both running games were still really solid. Maybe better conditions helps Jackson be a bit more allusive. 

Both teams can be a bit better in certain areas in better conditions but if these two teams face off 10 times, damn near all of them will be coming down to the wire. Just way too evenly matched across the board. 

I understand where you’re coming from. I definitely think Jimmy G also missed some throws, but you have to understand that in the rain especially there are two plays. The first play that you design and then the second play that you get to when the pass rush doesn’t get home. 

 The Ravens overall have a bad pass rush and thus why we have to blitz as much as we do. The 49ers have an all time pass rush upfront. It means teams aren’t likely to EVER get to a second play. Thus the rain presents an advantage for your defensive strength. It’s hard to cover in the rain, but it’s even harder to cover for longer periods in the rain.

Whereas the strength of our defense is the secondary being probably the best in the league. It affords our defense coverage sacks that make the front 7 look better than what it is. But since the front 7 is bad, asking the DBs to cover for an extended period is a tough task. That big play from Jimmy G that afforded you your first touchdown isn’t something that generally happens in better conditions... and if it does, generally it’s the play Earl Thomas picked Tom Brady off on. Or Peters locates the ball in the air and gets a pick. Or Chuck Clark who is one of the best safeties in the league IMO and a probowl talent, forces an incompletion or gets the pick like he did against Mahomes last year.

This isn’t to say your defense still wouldn’t perform well. But against the Patriots, a similarly talented defense Lamar hits a lot more of those dunk and dunk plays to the RBs and TEs that he missed in this game and that’s the difference between scoring 20 and scoring 27. He also doesn’t fumble that ball on the run. Which is another 3-7 points. Under normal conditions I definitely think we’re putting up 30+ just based off of what I saw.

I think you guys still dominate in your rushing attack, just not quite as much. I think Kittle is more activated, though like I said Chuck Clark is a Pro Bowler and hopefully gets acknowledged as one, I think he’s the third best SS in football behind Adams and Smith. He did an excellent job on Kittle when matched up with him. But that being said, Jimmy G has proven to generally be good for at least a turnover a game. So I see your 17 points being more like 23/24 points in fair conditions.

But hey, I’m biased. I just don’t think Jimmy G is going to be much better than what a 118 passer rating in good conditions. That just doesn’t happen against our defense normally. And the bulk  of his passing yards came on the second play... not from his initial 3 and 5 step drops. But hey, all of this is moot if there is no rematch so we’ll see. A lot of football to be played to get it to that point.

[diamondbull424]

3 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

For sure, there were some throws from him that were off the mark. But like we are on pace to allow the least amount of passing yards in damn near 40 years for a reason. The pass defense just hardly gives up any big plays. I feel like that is a big component of the Ravens passing game. Pretty much just eliminates guys like Hollywood Brown. Doesn't mean you guys can't win a rematch because you certainly can. That run game will always be dominant period. 

It’s true. But I think a large component of that passing yards record is that you guys have a similarly dominant offense in TOP as our squad. So I think it’s Patriots level good (which is excellent), but then your offense is actually legit effective and eats up a lot of clock. So teams are having less possessions to rack up these yards. So I think it’s a perfect storm. You have an elite pass defense plus the TOP hold. Having seen both defenses, your defense is more athletic across all 11 and the LBers are better in coverage, however the Patriots have better safety play, better corners, and play more disciplined football. It’s all very close. But they’re more stifling. You guys are more explosive. I think there were a lot more rushing lanes for Lamar to find all game and the pass coverage was very similar. You guys definitely have the better pass rush and more athletic front 7. Lamar couldnt attack the edges as well when your defense saw that he had it. The big plays generally came from being less disciplined.

[J-ALL-DAY]

5 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

I understand where you’re coming from. I definitely think Jimmy G also missed some throws, but you have to understand that in the rain especially there are two plays. The first play that you design and then the second play that you get to when the pass rush doesn’t get home. 

 The Ravens overall have a bad pass rush and thus why we have to blitz as much as we do. The 49ers have an all time pass rush upfront. It means teams aren’t likely to EVER get to a second play. Thus the rain presents an advantage for your defensive strength. It’s hard to cover in the rain, but it’s even harder to cover for longer periods in the rain.

Whereas the strength of our defense is the secondary being probably the best in the league. It affords our defense coverage sacks that make the front 7 look better than what it is. But since the front 7 is bad, asking the DBs to cover for an extended period is a tough task. That big play from Jimmy G that afforded you your first touchdown isn’t something that generally happens in better conditions... and if it does, generally it’s the play Earl Thomas picked Tom Brady off on. Or Peters locates the ball in the air and gets a pick. Or Chuck Clark who is one of the best safeties in the league IMO and a probowl talent, forces an incompletion or gets the pick like he did against Mahomes last year.

This isn’t to say your defense still wouldn’t perform well. But against the Patriots, a similarly talented defense Lamar hits a lot more of those dunk and dunk plays to the RBs and TEs that he missed in this game and that’s the difference between scoring 20 and scoring 27. He also doesn’t fumble that ball on the run. Which is another 3-7 points. Under normal conditions I definitely think we’re putting up 30+ just based off of what I saw.

I think you guys still dominate in your rushing attack, just not quite as much. I think Kittle is more activated, though like I said Chuck Clark is a Pro Bowler and hopefully gets acknowledged as one, I think he’s the third best SS in football behind Adams and Smith. He did an excellent job on Kittle when matched up with him. But that being said, Jimmy G has proven to generally be good for at least a turnover a game. So I see your 17 points being more like 23/24 points in fair conditions.

But hey, I’m biased. I just don’t think Jimmy G is going to be much better than what a 118 passer rating in good conditions. That just doesn’t happen against our defense normally. And the bulk  of his passing yards came on the second play... not from his initial 3 and 5 step drops. But hey, all of this is moot if there is no rematch so we’ll see. A lot of football to be played to get it to that point.

I mean if you just look at Jimmy G's QB rating then sure, but even some of his completions were off the mark...Again, something that is pretty common in these conditions. But while the Patriots have a great secondary and pass defense, they play a lot more man coverage than us. We play mainly zone coverage or pattern match coverage. Since we will rush four most of the time, everything is usually kept in front of the DBs. Big plays simply put just don't happen often. I know Murray completed a 80 yarder where our DB went to undercut the ball, but that is super rare. So even in good conditions, Jackson is highly unlikely to have a big game through the air. What works against our defense is quick hitters and screens. That's exactly what Arizona did and Seattle completed some decent gained screen plays as well. Maybe that is one adjustment you guys can make if there is a part two. But Hollywood Brown is going to be pretty much taken out of the game in terms of taking the top off the defense. Andrews actually had a really solid game considering we were ranked #1 against opposing TEs. Warner is damn good in coverage and showed that this past Sunday. The TD came when he bit on the PA and that's actually happened a few times. Your run offense is so dominant that you just have to live with a few of those every game. 

To me it's not about how many points we score in better conditions. That could be a bit flukey since you can get a turnover or two at the opposing team's 20 yard line for some quick scores. I just think with the way you guys blitz, our receivers are going to have opportunities to get open. No doubt the Ravens have the best corners in the league, but put them in enough one on one situations then they can be had. I could be completely wrong here, but I just feel more confident in our passing game than yours with no rain. I don't see Jackson throwing for all that many yards or having a high YPA. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

3 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

It’s true. But I think a large component of that passing yards record is that you guys have a similarly dominant offense in TOP as our squad. So I think it’s Patriots level good (which is excellent), but then your offense is actually legit effective and eats up a lot of clock. So teams are having less possessions to rack up these yards. So I think it’s a perfect storm. You have an elite pass defense plus the TOP hold. Having seen both defenses, your defense is more athletic across all 11 and the LBers are better in coverage, however the Patriots have better safety play, better corners, and play more disciplined football. It’s all very close. But they’re more stifling. You guys are more explosive. I think there were a lot more rushing lanes for Lamar to find all game and the pass coverage was very similar. You guys definitely have the better pass rush and more athletic front 7. Lamar couldnt attack the edges as well when your defense saw that he had it. The big plays generally came from being less disciplined.

But in terms of TOP, the Patriots are actually a bit better than us. They have the best corner of the bunch in Gilmore, but our corners are damn good in their own right. But still, I'd trust their corners in man coverage over ours. Their LBs are a bit slow,  but now with Alexander's injury, we have some very young and inexperienced LBs. Jackson was having his way with the read option and it was so frustrating to watch the backers just crash to the back and lose their gap assignment. But again, when you have THAT dominant of a run game, it's going to happen. No one is stopping the Ravens run game...NO ONE. I'd love to see someone even come close to doing so. 

I'm not going to argue if our defense is better than the Patriots. I don't know if it is or not. Patriots still have the numbers backing them, but we have held up better against the top QBs than they have so far....But they also aren't allowing 25 or so points to the Cardinals either. 

[diamondbull424]

1 minute ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I mean if you just look at Jimmy G's QB rating then sure, but even some of his completions were off the mark...Again, something that is pretty common in these conditions. But while the Patriots have a great secondary and pass defense, they play a lot more man coverage than us. We play mainly zone coverage or pattern match coverage. Since we will rush four most of the time, everything is usually kept in front of the DBs. Big plays simply put just don't happen often. I know Murray completed a 80 yarder where our DB went to undercut the ball, but that is super rare. So even in good conditions, Jackson is highly unlikely to have a big game through the air. What works against our defense is quick hitters and screens. That's exactly what Arizona did and Seattle completed some decent gained screen plays as well. Maybe that is one adjustment you guys can make if there is a part two. But Hollywood Brown is going to be pretty much taken out of the game in terms of taking the top off the defense. Andrews actually had a really solid game considering we were ranked #1 against opposing TEs. Warner is damn good in coverage and showed that this past Sunday. The TD came when he bit on the PA and that's actually happened a few times. Your run offense is so dominant that you just have to live with a few of those every game. 

To me it's not about how many points we score in better conditions. That could be a bit flukey since you can get a turnover or two at the opposing team's 20 yard line for some quick scores. I just think with the way you guys blitz, our receivers are going to have opportunities to get open. No doubt the Ravens have the best corners in the league, but put them in enough one on one situations then they can be had. I could be completely wrong here, but I just feel more confident in our passing game than yours with no rain. I don't see Jackson throwing for all that many yards or having a high YPA. 

This is a take that I don’t agree with. I think people just watch the game against Miami or know of his Oklahoma usage (and even then he was a huge YAC fiend) and just assume that Hollywood Brown is only a deep threat.

The majority of his touchdowns all season have come from him getting open quickly and getting open against a zone. He and Mark Andrews are our zone buster receivers as their training at Oklahoma gave them a leg up on recognizing the zone and finding a spot and sitting.

Just look at the Rams game. He’s typically not having any crazy deep ball success. It’s your standard 10-15 yard routes because teams aren’t dumb enough to leave him single covered with no safety over the top. So sure he’s used as a deep threat to push the defense back. It’s not his only facet. Typically we mix it up more. Though I’m also glad they didn’t use him as much this game as that field easily could’ve caused him to reaggravate his ankle injury. Better to keep him healthy for the stretch run.

Either way, Lamar was roughly 30 points below his normal passer rating. Jimmy G was about 20 points above his normal passer rating. Two elite secondaries that didn’t give up many first play reads. Lamar missed on first play reads way more. Jimmys bulk of production came against the second play. We generally don’t allow WRs to get open even on a second play act and thus why coverage sacks have happen against the Texans and Rams, with arguably better WR cores.

But hey we'll just have to agree to disagree then if you think Jimmy G is MORE successful vs our secondary in better conditions than he was today. I’ve yet to see it since we got Peters and Clark has taken over at SS.

[J-ALL-DAY]

11 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

This is a take that I don’t agree with. I think people just watch the game against Miami or know of his Oklahoma usage (and even then he was a huge YAC fiend) and just assume that Hollywood Brown is only a deep threat.

The majority of his touchdowns all season have come from him getting open quickly and getting open against a zone. He and Mark Andrews are our zone buster receivers as their training at Oklahoma gave them a leg up on recognizing the zone and finding a spot and sitting.

Just look at the Rams game. He’s typically not having any crazy deep ball success. It’s your standard 10-15 yard routes because teams aren’t dumb enough to leave him single covered with no safety over the top. So sure he’s used as a deep threat to push the defense back. It’s not his only facet. Typically we mix it up more. Though I’m also glad they didn’t use him as much this game as that field easily could’ve caused him to reaggravate his ankle injury. Better to keep him healthy for the stretch run.

Either way, Lamar was roughly 30 points below his normal passer rating. Jimmy G was about 20 points above his normal passer rating. Two elite secondaries that didn’t give up many first play reads. Lamar missed on first play reads way more. Jimmys bulk of production came against the second play. We generally don’t allow WRs to get open even on a second play act and thus why coverage sacks have happen against the Texans and Rams, with arguably better WR cores.

But hey we'll just have to agree to disagree then if you think Jimmy G is MORE successful vs our secondary in better conditions than he was today. I’ve yet to see it since we got Peters and Clark has taken over at SS.

You're looking at just TDs, but Brown has 36 catches this season, six of them have been over 25 yards. That's a pretty high percentage right there. The games he does get these big 25+ yarders in, he's held pretty much in check, minus the Rams game where he obviously had a big impact despite only having 42 yards.

We can definitely agree to disagree, no problem with that. But with the amount of blitzes you guys utilize, you will allow bigger plays compared to a team that usually relies just on the front four to generate a rush. Passing rating be damned, there's going to be more opportunities there for bigger plays for the team going against single coverage opposed to a team dropping seven in coverage and taking away the big play. 

[AngusMcFife]

If I were a 49ers fan, I'd be more worried about getting a playoff position better than the 5 seed than any potential super bowl matchup. 

[AngusMcFife]

3 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

This is a take that I don’t agree with. I think people just watch the game against Miami or know of his Oklahoma usage (and even then he was a huge YAC fiend) and just assume that Hollywood Brown is only a deep threat.

The majority of his touchdowns all season have come from him getting open quickly and getting open against a zone. He and Mark Andrews are our zone buster receivers as their training at Oklahoma gave them a leg up on recognizing the zone and finding a spot and sitting.

Just look at the Rams game. He’s typically not having any crazy deep ball success. It’s your standard 10-15 yard routes because teams aren’t dumb enough to leave him single covered with no safety over the top. So sure he’s used as a deep threat to push the defense back. It’s not his only facet. Typically we mix it up more. Though I’m also glad they didn’t use him as much this game as that field easily could’ve caused him to reaggravate his ankle injury. Better to keep him healthy for the stretch run.

Either way, Lamar was roughly 30 points below his normal passer rating. Jimmy G was about 20 points above his normal passer rating. Two elite secondaries that didn’t give up many first play reads. Lamar missed on first play reads way more. Jimmys bulk of production came against the second play. We generally don’t allow WRs to get open even on a second play act and thus why coverage sacks have happen against the Texans and Rams, with arguably better WR cores.

But hey we'll just have to agree to disagree then if you think Jimmy G is MORE successful vs our secondary in better conditions than he was today. I’ve yet to see it since we got Peters and Clark has taken over at SS.

Lamar just learned how to throw an NFL ball this offseason, whereas Jimmy G's mechanics have looked the same since he was with the Pats. I'd guess the rain had a much bigger effect on Lamar since his throwing mechanics are still fairly new. 

Also I noticed your defense gave Lamar lots of space on the outside. His cuts were much less sharp in the rain. If you give him that much space on a good field, he'll probably rip off at least one 50+ yard TD. You'd have to change your scheme to keep him hemmed in, opening up passes in the middle. Even though he ran for over 100 yards, his running in the rain is much less explosive. 

EDIT: That play in which your DB forced the fumble would be an easy TD on a dry field. 

Edited December 3, 2019 by AngusMcFife

[diamondbull424]

3 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

Lamar just learned how to throw an NFL ball this offseason, whereas Jimmy G's mechanics have looked the same since he was with the Pats. I'd guess the rain had a much bigger effect on Lamar since his throwing mechanics are still fairly new. 

Also I noticed your defense gave Lamar lots of space on the outside. His cuts were much less sharp in the rain. If you give him that much space on a good field, he'll probably rip off at least one 50+ yard TD. You'd have to change your scheme to keep him hemmed in, opening up passes in the middle. Even though he ran for over 100 yards, his running in the rain is much less explosive. 

EDIT: That play in which your DB forced the fumble would be an easy TD on a dry field. 

Agreed. But think you meant to quote the 49ers guy?

[J-ALL-DAY]

5 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

If I were a 49ers fan, I'd be more worried about getting a playoff position better than the 5 seed than any potential super bowl matchup. 

Trust me, I'm well aware. This looks like 2013 all over again where we were 12-4 and had to travel to the 7-8-1 GB Packers lol. Having to win three road games in the NFC is a VERY tall task, So it goes without saying that this week against NO is a must win.

Btw, I hope you don't think I was throwing any shade on the Ravens or Jackson, because that's not what I was doing. 

[DreamKid]

11 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Btw, I hope you don't think I was throwing any shade on the Ravens or Jackson, because that's not what I was doing.

Can't speak for anyone else, but I think the 49ers' fans on FF are a pretty good bunch. Nothing wrong with you guys supporting your team or trying to make a case for something in here. Your approach to it is a nice contrast to the level we're usually treated to as well.

[AngusMcFife]

1 hour ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Trust me, I'm well aware. This looks like 2013 all over again where we were 12-4 and had to travel to the 7-8-1 GB Packers lol. Having to win three road games in the NFC is a VERY tall task, So it goes without saying that this week against NO is a must win.

Btw, I hope you don't think I was throwing any shade on the Ravens or Jackson, because that's not what I was doing. 

Yeah I'm just busting your chops, you guys have a crazy tough division and conference.