Gmen Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 (edited) Are : Teams winning games because they're running the ball? Or : Are teams running the ball because they're winning games and they need to run out the clock? Just Some Food For Thought : ) Correlation != Causation Edited November 30, 2019 by Gmen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 12 hours ago, bucsfan333 said: Are teams winning because they rush for so much, or are teams already winning so they run the ball enough to eclipse that threshold? I was just going to ask this.... I don't think there is any doubt the two are correlated, I just don't know if the rushing causes the winning, or the winning causes the rushing This will all be moot soon. In a few years the QB position will be completely transformed from what it was even 10 years ago, and these types of offenses will be the norm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtmmike Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Browns 3-0with hunt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetana34 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 hours ago, Gmen said: Are : Teams winning games because they're running the ball? Or : Are teams running the ball because they're winning games and they need to run out the clock? Just Some Food For Thought : ) Correlation != Causation He already addressed that question on page 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-ALL-DAY Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 14 hours ago, SkippyX said: Andy Dalton is 11-30-1 when his team does not run for at least 130. He is 7-2 when the Bengals run for 130+ Josh Allen is 7-6 when the Bills don't run for at least 130. He is 7-3 when the Bills run for 130+ Jimmy G? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlowe22 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 43 minutes ago, smetana34 said: He already addressed that question on page 1 Yes, but if nobody is actually gonna go look it up(for every team, and every game), then it doesn't mean anything. I don't know if it would matter or not, and I don't care nearly enough to go find out, but it needs to be checked to be thorough. Along with a host of other variables. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 I see it as....if you winning the game by whatever means, you more likely have the opportunity to run for 130 yards or more. because you are running the clock out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Piling on to the point that this is probably because teams that are winning run the ball more, this was the first article that FootballOutsiders ever wrote, incidentally on the subject: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2003/establishment-clause This article also shows that play action is effectively regardless of how many times it's used, so it's probably also true that the ground game doesn't need to be that great. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-nfl-coaches-overuse-play-action-they-havent-yet/ I think this is going to have a high correlation because teams that are winning run the ball (see the first article - it's old but applicable). However, I think it's fairly obvious that teams who are struggling to run will have a harder time winning than those that don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 For those interested, in 2018 (just decided to use the most recent season as a sample), the correlation between rushing yardage and winning was 0.56. Solid, but not amazing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoboRocket Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 16 hours ago, Nabbs4u said: RB don't matter nor the running game, get it right Skippy! Fall in line damnit! 63-2 for these 4 QB. 🍺 Throw in Goff, Cousins, and Stafford and the record for those seven QBs (Brady, Rodgers, Goff, Wentz, Stafford, Brees, Cousins) becomes 91-4 when their teams rush for 130+. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malik Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Can't assume that every time that's winning is solely piling up yardage at the end of the game. How many teams can you remember icing out a long 4th quarter drive by running the ball 50+ yards or so for 8min? I can't imagine it's that common. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocky_rams Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Thought this was kinda obvious 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nabbs4u Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 hours ago, rocky_rams said: Thought this was kinda obvious It is, well for those without agendas that is. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 (edited) On 11/30/2019 at 11:14 AM, SkippyX said: I have not thoroughly researched this but early findings look like there is a very strong correlation. I did all the research for you and posted it this summer. The correlation is extremely low. One of the articles I posted specifically even addressed the major flaw in your argument - are you rushing at the end of the game to kill the clock. They looked at effective running in close games vs games were the team was up 2+ scores. At the end of the day, it was something like the bulk rushing leader wins 53% vs 47% in close games. Edited December 1, 2019 by Matts4313 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 All the takes in this thread about running = winning and running = good play action have been debunked like a million times in recent years. Running matters but it isn't some magical secret formula to victory. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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