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4-7-1 to 9-3, why?


TheOnlyThing

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6 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

There's analytics I get behind 100% and ones I completely disregard. Being around football my whole life until recently, I disregard anything that says clutch performance is random. Leadership and team culture play a huge part in it, some guys play with nerves and some don't. 

I think this team is run by the veterans this year (how a team should run IMO) and last year it was run by the coaches. The loose playing style mixed with a good deal of veterans who have been there before is a good mix for close game situations.

1. Close games are rarely the result of brilliant clutch play. More typically they end up 1 score games because of a run of the mill fumble that happens with 10 minutes left in the second quarter.

2. End of game win percentages are disproportionally coaching driven due to the necessity for clock management. If your coach is making good point and clock decisions, you'll do better.

3. There's no noticeable repeatability from year to year with close game victories. The reaper of luck comes for all in time.

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7 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

1. Close games are rarely the result of brilliant clutch play. More typically they end up 1 score games because of a run of the mill fumble that happens with 10 minutes left in the second quarter.

2. End of game win percentages are disproportionally coaching driven due to the necessity for clock management. If your coach is making good point and clock decisions, you'll do better.

3. There's no noticeable repeatability from year to year with close game victories. The reaper of luck comes for all in time.

Another example of this outside of the Packers is Seattle. they are winning more of their close games this season putting them at 9-2. last year they lost more of them and were 7-5 at this point in the season. close games can go one way one year and another the next. 

 

 

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*Aaron Jones didn't fumble the ball against the Patriots.
*Ty Montgomery didn't decide to take the ball out of the end zone. 
*Clay Matthews didn't get ****ed on a terrible roughing the passer call that should have been a Jaire Alexander game ending interception that instead turned into a tie.
*Aaron Rodgers didn't throw a 3rd and 2 pass to MVS's feet like he did in Seattle last year. 
*Aaron Rodgers doesn't have an atrocious game against the worst team in football (Cardinals).

Those five things don't happen last year and we're 9-3 at this point last year.  More than likely at least given how the games were going. 

We're a better team this year because:

*Rodgers is getting the backs involved in the passing game.
*We've had clutch turnovers/sacks from free agent additions.
*The Smiths fit better for what Pettine wants to do.
*We're healthy.
*The power struggle between Rodgers and our head coach leans in our new head coach's direction because Rodgers knows he can't scapegoat LaFleur for the same things that were happening under McCarthy.

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Didn't you just have the feeling the Packers would be better this year.

 

 

1 - McCarthy and his stale system (at least in Green Bay) is gone and Rodgers can no longer blame him. Rodgers has played much better this year even as his talents are waning a bit. 

2 - Gute went out and found 4 key pieces in free agency and all have paid huge dividends. In line for GM of the year even with Gary being a bust so far. the Gute draft did bring in 2 likely future pro bowlers in  Savage and Jenkins. 

3 - Emergence of Aaron Jones as a star and Jamaal Williams as a certified 1-2 punch. 

4 - the LaFleur offense is an improvement even with very weak WR and TE groups. 

5 - special teams are a big improvement over recent and even not so recent years

6 - fewer injuries and some luck

 

 

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2 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

1. Pure dumbass luck. Last year's team had a 7.5-8.5 differential and finished 6.5-9.5. This year's team has a 9-7 differential and will finish 11-5 or 12-4. Some times luck is all it is.

2. Injuries have been huge. We've been amazingly healthy this year. Combining the health and luck we've had so far this year, we're easily next year's top regression candidate.

3. The defense is just flat more talented. The free agent acquisitions have been huge. Considering how much more talented this unit is, the fact we've only improved marginally is troubling.

+++

I don't mean to say that I think LaFleur has nothing to do with the improvement, but it's not like our offense is noticeably better

You've used point differential a few times, but isn't it a bit irrelevant without including strength of schedule?

The Packers are weird this year in that they are 26th in strength of schedule, but 6th in strength of victory.....so I guess that further validates what you are saying.  Easy schedule..we should have a much bigger point differential.  

 

 

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2 hours ago, {Family Ghost} said:

This team was fed up with Camp McCarthy and his ways .. LaFleur brought in some much needed energy, and between the new coaching staff and the Smith Bros. they quickly changed the culture.  I think it became a funner place to be, and helped us get off to a fast start this season.

After the game yesterday Tramon spoke of the change in culture on the team from last year to now.  You can watch that clip on the Packers' website.   How things are in the locker room can make a big difference on the field.

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2 hours ago, Joe said:

...and if we didn't have those pieces we would see more regression...because we have no interior presence other than Clark and Martinez....

Perhaps improving that area on the defense this offseason can make this defense a more cohesive unit next year.

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1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

1. Close games are rarely the result of brilliant clutch play. More typically they end up 1 score games because of a run of the mill fumble that happens with 10 minutes left in the second quarter.

2. End of game win percentages are disproportionally coaching driven due to the necessity for clock management. If your coach is making good point and clock decisions, you'll do better.

3. There's no noticeable repeatability from year to year with close game victories. The reaper of luck comes for all in time.

See the Pats-Texans game last night...

14 minutes ago, gizmo2012 said:

Didn't you just have the feeling the Packers would be better this year.

1 - McCarthy and his stale system (at least in Green Bay) is gone and Rodgers can no longer blame him. Rodgers has played much better this year even as his talents are waning a bit. 

2 - Gute went out and found 4 key pieces in free agency and all have paid huge dividends. In line for GM of the year even with Gary being a bust so far. the Gute draft did bring in 2 likely future pro bowlers in  Savage and Jenkins. 

3 - Emergence of Aaron Jones as a star and Jamaal Williams as a certified 1-2 punch. 

4 - the LaFleur offense is an improvement even with very weak WR and TE groups. 

5 - special teams are a big improvement over recent and even not so recent years

6 - fewer injuries and some luck

 

 

point 3 is something we'd been waiting for and has been a product of 1. I wouldn't necessarily say the MLF offense is an improvement; it's something different from the norm and our WR group really isn't as weak as we think it is; a lot of it has to do with year 1 growing pains more than anything. ST are worse than when Slocum was running the show.

3 minutes ago, KFP7 said:

You've used point differential a few times, but isn't it a bit irrelevant without including strength of schedule?

The Packers are weird this year in that they are 26th in strength of schedule, but 6th in strength of victory.....so I guess that further validates what you are saying.  Easy schedule..we should have a much bigger point differential.  

Point differential becomes relevant when you observe the schedule and the current results. No reason we shouldn't have blown KC out of the water the way we did to Oakland and there was no reason we shouldn't have done the same with Dallas. If we can stop the run, we beat Philly and San Diego. If we play with urgency, we might have beaten San Fran. We have the personnel for an up-tempo offensive approach, I don't know why we don't use it more often.

Just now, Pugger said:

Perhaps improving that area on the defense this offseason can make this defense a more cohesive unit next year.

No argument there. The draft plays nicely to our woes in those areas....if we choose to use it that way...

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33 minutes ago, Pugger said:

After the game yesterday Tramon spoke of the change in culture on the team from last year to now.  You can watch that clip on the Packers' website.   How things are in the locker room can make a big difference on the field.

That certainly makes a lot of sense.

Seems that, in addition to performing very well on the field, Z Smith has really stepped in as a leader on the team, particularly the defensive unit.

The additions of the Smiths and the directly related jettisoning of Matthews and Perry are undoubtedly the biggest personnel factors contributing to the Pack's improved record through 12 games this year.

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17 minutes ago, TheOnlyThing said:

That certainly makes a lot of sense.

Seems that, in addition to performing very well on the field, Z Smith has really stepped in as a leader on the team, particularly the defensive unit.

The additions of the Smiths and the directly related jettisoning of Matthews and Perry are undoubtedly the biggest personnel factors contributing to the Pack's improved record through 12 games this year.

Really sucks that Gute wasn't brave enough to "jettison" Matthews a year earlier when he could have done so with no cap implications. 

Also he didn't jettison Matthews, the contract expired. 

Please stop with the nonsense implications that these guys were cancerous. 

Edited by AlexGreen#20
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Thread: All the people that hated Mac and Ted were right. Worship us.

Reality, we're still not going to win the SB which was your only standard for them which instantly changed once they were gone. No more primes being wasted all the sudden. Weird.

Edited by Norm
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I think better chemistry has a lot to do with it.  Like the notion that "if you're drafted here, nobody's going to come in from the outside and take your job" does breed a lot of complacency and I think that a number of guys just got sick of each other.  Shaking things up and having guys who genuinely like playing with each other is going to make a big difference.

Plus the 4-7-1 thing is somewhat artificially brought down by the whole "there's no point in trying to win when you're eliminated" thing.

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4 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

1. Pure dumbass luck. Last year's team had a 7.5-8.5 differential and finished 6.5-9.5. This year's team has a 9-7 differential and will finish 11-5 or 12-4. Some times luck is all it is.

2. Injuries have been huge. We've been amazingly healthy this year. Combining the health and luck we've had so far this year, we're easily next year's top regression candidate.

3. The defense is just flat more talented. The free agent acquisitions have been huge. Considering how much more talented this unit is, the fact we've only improved marginally is troubling.

+++

I don't mean to say that I think LaFleur has nothing to do with the improvement, but it's not like our offense is noticeably better

Production  in the redzone by Jones was prob the only improvement for the first part of the year for the offense. Protection has been better too.

Edited by Gopackgonerd
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Injuries is the big thing - we have been either incredibly lucky or extremely well prepared. Lane Taylor is the only season ender of a starter and we had Jenkins. Rodgers has looked like an injury waiting to happen last few years but he's been fine. 

Second is the pass rushers - best pass rushing duo we've had for a long time. Whilst the defence has horribly under-performed a lot of the time, the pass rush gives us a chance.

The record probably flatters us a bit as well. We've a decent team but probably not really a competing for HFA team. 

 

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4 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Really sucks that Gute wasn't brave enough to "jettison" Matthews a year earlier when he could have done so with no cap implications. 

Also he didn't jettison Matthews, the contract expired. 

Please stop with the nonsense implications that these guys were cancerous. 

Yep, sure would have been better for Gute not to have paid Matthews $11.4M for those 3.5 sacks and bad run defense in 2018 but then again he had so much dead weight to offload from the roster he inherited that he could hardly be expected to jettison all of it in just one off-season.

Anyway, better late than never in moving on from overpaid under-performers.

And who implied Matthews and Perry "were cancerous" besides yourself?

I just noted that it was nifty that Gute both recognized that the play of Matthews and Perry on the field in no way merited their huge cap hits and was wise enough to sign much, much better outside linebackers in P & Z Smith to replace them.

I mean, is there really any doubt that Gute moving on from Matthews and Perry and replacing them with the Smith brothers is one of the most important reasons the team has improved from 4-7-1 after 12 games in 2018 to to 9-3 in 2019?

 

 

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