Week 14 - Rams vs. Seahawks

[RamRod]

Big game to keep our playoff hopes alive. 

[LARams91]

We win and the Vikings lose we're the 6 seed. Let's get it!

[stl4life07]

The Seahawks is (9-1) in one score games this season. They remind me of the Rams last season who was (6-2) in the regular season in one score games. To show you the difference between last season and this season with the Seahawks is last season the Seahawks was (4-6) in one score games. That means they will rarely blow a team out or get blown out. That has been the case with their recent history with the Rams. The past 5 meetings the Rams and Seahawks played 4 of those games were decided by one score. In those games its (2-2). The only game that wasnt decided by one score was when the Rams went to Seattle and beat them down 42-7. They were motivated heading into that game because they knew they had that game won earlier in the season but made countless of mistakes like Gurley fumbling the ball into the endzone and Kupp dropping the td that wouldve won the game. The Rams come into this game thinking if Zeurlein didnt miss that field goal in Seattle on TNF the Rams wouldve won. They will be motivated to beat Seattle with everyone praising Seattle and rightfully so. Barely anyone will think the Rams will win even at home. The Rams I predict will this game and just like @LARams91 said, if the Vikings lose the Rams are in the 6th seed. 

Edited December 3, 2019 by stl4life07

[StLunatic88]

3 hours ago, LARams91 said:

We win and the Vikings lose we're the 6 seed. Let's get it!

I dont think its all that simple, but we would be tied with them. Although I dont know if this is the week to be banking on the Vikings to lose (vs the Stafford-less Lions)

When it comes down to it, I think the Vikings go 10-6 (and they would have to if we are going to catch them) which is 2-2 down the stretch while playing the Lions/Chargers/Packers/Bears. while we have to go 3-1 against the Seahawks/Cowboys/Niners/Cardinals.

Assuming we both end up 10-6, then we have to look through the tiebreakers. 

1. First is Head-to-Head; which doesnt apply.
2. Then its Conference record. The Vikings currently have 6 Conference Wins, while we have 5.
   1. But assuming the Rams go 3-1 to end the year we would have 8
   2. And if the Vikings go 2-2, the most they could have is 8 (might only be 7 if one of those wins is vs the Chargers)
   3. If thats the case, then we would win the Tiebreak right here, but lets assume they lose to LAC but still go 2-2
3. Next Tiebreaker is % record in Common Opponents, which is easy to calculate because we have 5 games each (ATL-DAL-CHI-SEA)
   1. Currently we both have 2 wins in these games, but the Vikings only have 1 game left (CHI) while we have 2 (SEA-DAL)
   2. So in our 3-1 quest, the most lose-able game becomes @-SF, if we Beat both SEA/DAL then we have 4 Common Wins to their max 3
   3. But if not, then we have to go to Strength of Victory (SOV)
4. Strength of Victory is a real pain in the butt, as it can change drastically each week, especially as we continue to win games. 
   1. Currently we hold that number (.399 SOV) over Minnesota (.339 SOV)
5. If somehow that were also tied it goes to Strength of Schedule (SOS)
   1. Which we also hold by a larger margin that SOV (.524 vs .455)
   2. And if somehow we go past that it gets really complicated, and Im not going to calculate it

So when it comes down to it, we need to go atleast 3-1, with the only loss coming to San Fran (or Arizona but Im counting that as a win) and the Vikings have to lose to atleast 2 more games, hopefully both to NFC teams, and atleast 1 to the Bears

 

[LARams91]

1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

I dont think its all that simple, but we would be tied with them. Although I dont know if this is the week to be banking on the Vikings to lose (vs the Stafford-less Lions)

When it comes down to it, I think the Vikings go 10-6 (and they would have to if we are going to catch them) which is 2-2 down the stretch while playing the Lions/Chargers/Packers/Bears. while we have to go 3-1 against the Seahawks/Cowboys/Niners/Cardinals.

Assuming we both end up 10-6, then we have to look through the tiebreakers. 

1. First is Head-to-Head; which doesnt apply.
2. Then its Conference record. The Vikings currently have 6 Conference Wins, while we have 5.
   1. But assuming the Rams go 3-1 to end the year we would have 8
   2. And if the Vikings go 2-2, the most they could have is 8 (might only be 7 if one of those wins is vs the Chargers)
   3. If thats the case, then we would win the Tiebreak right here, but lets assume they lose to LAC but still go 2-2
3. Next Tiebreaker is % record in Common Opponents, which is easy to calculate because we have 5 games each (ATL-DAL-CHI-SEA)
   1. Currently we both have 2 wins in these games, but the Vikings only have 1 game left (CHI) while we have 2 (SEA-DAL)
   2. So in our 3-1 quest, the most lose-able game becomes @-SF, if we Beat both SEA/DAL then we have 4 Common Wins to their max 3
   3. But if not, then we have to go to Strength of Victory (SOV)
4. Strength of Victory is a real pain in the butt, as it can change drastically each week, especially as we continue to win games. 
   1. Currently we hold that number (.399 SOV) over Minnesota (.339 SOV)
5. If somehow that were also tied it goes to Strength of Schedule (SOS)
   1. Which we also hold by a larger margin that SOV (.524 vs .455)
   2. And if somehow we go past that it gets really complicated, and Im not going to calculate it

So when it comes down to it, we need to go atleast 3-1, with the only loss coming to San Fran (or Arizona but Im counting that as a win) and the Vikings have to lose to atleast 2 more games, hopefully both to NFC teams, and atleast 1 to the Bears

 

No, we'd have 6th seed. We would have conference record over them. It's not wins, it's record.

Edited December 3, 2019 by LARams91

[J-ALL-DAY]

How we feeling about this match up fellas? Think we will stop that little midget QB and get a win???

[StLunatic88]

5 minutes ago, LARams91 said:

No, we'd have 6th seed. We would have conference record over them. It's not wins, it's record.

2 things;

Its Conference Win Percentage, and right now the Vikings are 6-3 (.667) in the Conference, and the Rams are 5-3 (.635) So sure, if you are predicting they Lose to the Lions (without Stafford) then yes, we would jump them, but my point was I wouldnt count on that.

Secondly, it doesnt matter what those Tiebreaks are at the end of weeks 13-16, because we have to finish the season. Where we will both play 12 games in conference, so it will come down to Conference Wins. we arent going to cancel games, and have a different number than them. Even if we win out, they can still lose to just the Chargers, and we will still be tied.

[LeotheLion]

2 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

How we feeling about this match up fellas? Think we will stop that little midget QB and get a win???

Feel good that it will be close. Think we pull through. Only worry is we are sometimes awful at primetime games. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

11 minutes ago, LeotheLion said:

Feel good that it will be close. Think we pull through. Only worry is we are sometimes awful at primetime games. 

Well, let's make sure we change that and we get out to a blazing start!!!!!!!!

[jrry32]

I might be wrong, but I thought the first tiebreaker after H2H was divisional record? 

7 hours ago, LeotheLion said:

Feel good that it will be close. Think we pull through. Only worry is we are sometimes awful at primetime games. 

It's hard to say. We should have beaten them on TNF IN Seattle (home team almost always wins on TNF, and we played in Seattle, which makes it 100x harder), but Seattle looks better now than they did early in the season.

[LARams91]

15 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

2 things;

Its Conference Win Percentage, and right now the Vikings are 6-3 (.667) in the Conference, and the Rams are 5-3 (.635) So sure, if you are predicting they Lose to the Lions (without Stafford) then yes, we would jump them, but my point was I wouldnt count on that.

Secondly, it doesnt matter what those Tiebreaks are at the end of weeks 13-16, because we have to finish the season. Where we will both play 12 games in conference, so it will come down to Conference Wins. we arent going to cancel games, and have a different number than them. Even if we win out, they can still lose to just the Chargers, and we will still be tied.

Record, win percentage. Same thing to me, better record is better win %. Yea obviously we have to keep it up, but it feels nice to at least be 6th seed.

[StLunatic88]

1 hour ago, LARams91 said:

Record, win percentage. Same thing to me, better record is better win %. Yea obviously we have to keep it up, but it feels nice to at least be 6th seed.

Im not here for Moral victories. Either we make the playoffs or the season is a disappointing followup to a Super Bowl run. Im not going to ever be saying "remember that one random week in December when we were projected to win a Tie Breaker for the Wild Card? Man those were good times"

[StLunatic88]

7 hours ago, jrry32 said:

I might be wrong, but I thought the first tiebreaker after H2H was divisional record? 

Only if the two teams are in the same Division.

[LeotheLion]

9 hours ago, jrry32 said:

It's hard to say. We should have beaten them on TNF IN Seattle (home team almost always wins on TNF, and we played in Seattle, which makes it 100x harder), but Seattle looks better now than they did early in the season.

I think adding Ramsey is key. Peters and our DBs have always been good for getting torched by Russ. 

[StLunatic88]

Just had some thoughts about the Playoff race and didnt want to start a whole new thread over it, so Im just throwing them out here.

The scenario I see going into Week 17;

• NFC Playoff Picture
• 5 of the 6 teams will be known, but with only one Seed locked up, and a WC berth still available, should have 5 important games 
  • Dallas [8-7] is going to have the East locked up (Philly looked even worse than Dallas has) and will be locked into the 4th seed
  • New Orleans [13-2] and Green Bay [12-3] both have the Divisions locked up, but are still fighting for Seeding so they will have to play
  • Los Angles [9-6] and Minnesota [9-6] are all thats left for the last Wild Card, I think we will hold the Tiebreaker (possibly down to SOV)
  • San Francisco [12-3] and Seattle [12-3] are both in, but are fighting for that Bye Week, and not to be the WC, Should be SNF to end the year 

 

• AFC Playoff Picture
• Like the NFC 5 of the 6 are in, but nothing is officially decided. Byes are up in the air, and seeds are all a toss up, 5 important games on this side also
  • New England [12-3] is likely to receive a Bye, (#1 seed still attainable) but still needs to win to ensure that as the Chiefs could still jump them
  • Speaking of, Kansas City [11-4] is in as the West Champs, but they could be anywhere from the 1-4 seed, so they will want to play for the win
  • Buffalo [10-5] has virtually already punched their ticket as a Wild Card, but not officially, they wont rely on other teams, so they will be gunning for it
  • Pittsburgh and Baltimore both have a lot to play for,  One for their playoff lives and the other for Home Field throughout. Darkhorse for the SNF game
  • The South will be up for grabs with Tennessee [9-6] and Houston [10-5], with some outside chances that a WC team could come out of this SNF option

 

Really was just looking at what TV viewing we could have in Week 17, and as long as the NFL doesnt complete screw up the Morning/Afternoon split, we could have a full day of really important football games, so that means they will completely screw it up.

Edited December 4, 2019 by StLunatic88