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Week 14 - Rams vs. Seahawks

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On 12/4/2019 at 9:36 AM, StLunatic88 said:

Im not here for Moral victories. Either we make the playoffs or the season is a disappointing followup to a Super Bowl run. Im not going to ever be saying "remember that one random week in December when we were projected to win a Tie Breaker for the Wild Card? Man those were good times"

Right...but if we lose our chances are slim to none....

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On 12/3/2019 at 3:09 PM, StLunatic88 said:

I dont think its all that simple, but we would be tied with them. Although I dont know if this is the week to be banking on the Vikings to lose (vs the Stafford-less Lions)

When it comes down to it, I think the Vikings go 10-6 (and they would have to if we are going to catch them) which is 2-2 down the stretch while playing the Lions/Chargers/Packers/Bears. while we have to go 3-1 against the Seahawks/Cowboys/Niners/Cardinals.

Assuming we both end up 10-6, then we have to look through the tiebreakers. 

  1. First is Head-to-Head; which doesnt apply.
  2. Then its Conference record. The Vikings currently have 6 Conference Wins, while we have 5.
    1. But assuming the Rams go 3-1 to end the year we would have 8
    2. And if the Vikings go 2-2, the most they could have is 8 (might only be 7 if one of those wins is vs the Chargers)
    3. If thats the case, then we would win the Tiebreak right here, but lets assume they lose to LAC but still go 2-2
  3. Next Tiebreaker is % record in Common Opponents, which is easy to calculate because we have 5 games each (ATL-DAL-CHI-SEA)
    1. Currently we both have 2 wins in these games, but the Vikings only have 1 game left (CHI) while we have 2 (SEA-DAL)
    2. So in our 3-1 quest, the most lose-able game becomes @-SF, if we Beat both SEA/DAL then we have 4 Common Wins to their max 3
    3. But if not, then we have to go to Strength of Victory (SOV)
  4. Strength of Victory is a real pain in the butt, as it can change drastically each week, especially as we continue to win games. 
    1. Currently we hold that number (.399 SOV) over Minnesota (.339 SOV)
  5. If somehow that were also tied it goes to Strength of Schedule (SOS)
    1. Which we also hold by a larger margin that SOV (.524 vs .455)
    2. And if somehow we go past that it gets really complicated, and Im not going to calculate it

So when it comes down to it, we need to go atleast 3-1, with the only loss coming to San Fran (or Arizona but Im counting that as a win) and the Vikings have to lose to atleast 2 more games, hopefully both to NFC teams, and atleast 1 to the Bears

 

 

There is almost no possible way for the Vikings to end up tied with the Rams and get the tiebreaker. I'm sure there is a way - but I think it would be pretty farfetched. I went down the rabbit hole same as you did here and in almost every scenario, the Vikings can't finish with the same record.

The more troublesome part is that the Vikings will likely be favored in all of their remaining games, so getting two losses is going to be tough.

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Off playoff topic here but is Ramsey most likely to stick on one guy tonight and if so, who would that most likely be??? 

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Defense held the Seahawks to 3pts and the offense has carried the momentum from last week till this week because they are looking great. This is a must win and the Rams are playing like it. Let’s see if they can finish and take this win home. 

Edited by stl4life07

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Anyone else jump out their seats when collinsworth said we lead the league in 20 yard + explosive plays??? I swear to god it’s feels like we never get big plays anymore. Must be a skewed or wrong stat. Our offense has been a tad more explosive than a snail! I swear we struggle to get 5 yards at times. 

Edited by ITS_RAMMY_PLAYBOI

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Great win. This Rams team I keep saying feels like the Eagles team of last season. The Eagles was (4-6) got blown out in New Orleans. Everyone wrote them off for dead but they won 5 of their last 6 with the help of the Vikings choking the Eagles got the 6th seed went to Chicago beat them and was an Alshon catch away from possibly beating the Saints in New Orleans and going back to the NFCCG.

Dont count out the Rams. They have the heart of a champion. They are the reigning NFC champions and I believe Cousins will choke again because the Vikings go to LA (west coast trip) to face a talented Chargers team. That could be a loss. Then the Vikings have a MNF against the Packers. Cousins is (0-8) on MNF. That could be another loss. Then the Vikings finish up with the Bears whom is playing well right now and beat the Vikings the past two times they faced them. So the Rams just have to win and they will get in because I don’t think the Vikings will win out. The Vikings will go (1-2) and the Rams will go (2-1) and both teams will finish (10-6). The Rams will get the 6th seed because of tiebreaker and be a dangerous team. 

Edited by stl4life07

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Great team win all around. Offense started the second half a little shaky, but didn't panic and finished strong. 

Really minor thing, but seeing Nsimba call for fair catches on punt returns is so satisfying. Feel like Jojo stops my heart every time he tries to field one he shouldn't.

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That 95 yard drive in the 4th quarter was very impressive. The whole game was a much needed improvement from McVay in his game plan and play calling. The OLine has been getting better every week. Goff was very good aside from the one pass the second interception. But lets not forget the most impressive thing. Our defense straight up dominated the Seahawks, their OLine and most especially Wilson. Sacked 5 times, registered 11 hits and an overall very pedestrian night that was ended with a nice INT from Hill who redeemed himself on the play and Wilson had 0 TD's and an INT. I know we do well vs Wilson but he still in a losing effort manages a couple of those plays that make him look great. He didn't have those tonight. Hats off to Wade and his crew. This game also emphasizes to me at least the need next year to draft somebody to return kicks and punts. Henderson wasn't bad but Webster was though he has a few games to redeem himself. I'm over Natson so unless Nsimba improves a day 3 returner is a need. 

 

A very good win last night.  

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Snap count breakdowns. We're seeing a transition from McVay from the 11 to a 21 setup and I personally am loving what we see. Also look at the rotation from the DLine. Very impressive how they dominated the game.

 

week-14-snap-counts-offense.png?w=1000

week-14-snap-counts-defense.png?w=1000

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On 12/6/2019 at 12:43 AM, rocky_rams said:

Seattle is gonna be waiting for those third down screens 

hopefully McVay changes it up 

In the first half he did exactly this. Somewhere around 3-8 he faked a screen and went to Higbee and it worked beautifully.

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