Week 14 GDT: San Francisco 49ers(10-2) vs. New Orleans Saints (10-2): You come at the king, you best not miss

[Jlowe22]

5 hours ago, NinerNation21 said:

Yep, two top 10 pass pro teams going against one another - should be good. 

 

For funsies, here's how they stack up against each other in pass rushing:

Sack Rate: NO - 8.2% / SF - 11.3%  (League average: 7.3%)

Sacks: NO - 40 / SF - 45  (League average: 31)

Pass Rush Ranking: NO - 7th in NFL / SF - 1st in NFL

Saints also scheme to get the ball out quick, and Brees pretty much never throws deep.  That helps a ton in preventing sacks.  I'd say our oline is more vulnerable than the stats indicate, especially with Armstead out, or not 100%.

I read a stat that said Saints oline below average in converting 3rd and 1/4th and 1 running the ball.  Which supports my eye test, which told me we're not good running the ball when we really need to run the ball.

[Forge]

16 hours ago, Jlowe22 said:

Saints also scheme to get the ball out quick, and Brees pretty much never throws deep.  That helps a ton in preventing sacks.  I'd say our oline is more vulnerable than the stats indicate, especially with Armstead out, or not 100%.

I read a stat that said Saints oline below average in converting 3rd and 1/4th and 1 running the ball.  Which supports my eye test, which told me we're not good running the ball when we really need to run the ball.

Haha, that's what we do too. The deep ball is absolutely not part of the arsenal for us. 

[Forge]

Good news for you guys - Arik Armstead was walked off the practice field today with trainers. Unsure of his condition. But that's a huge loss for the 49ers if he can't go this week. He's an elite run defender and has 10 sacks on the year. 

[49erurtaza]

4 hours ago, Forge said:

Good news for you guys - Arik Armstead was walked off the practice field today with trainers. Unsure of his condition. But that's a huge loss for the 49ers if he can't go this week. He's an elite run defender and has 10 sacks on the year. 

He had a vet day off so he's good.

[Dome]

I just hope we're competitive, we'll need everything going our way to win. I said at the bye weeks that this would be a battle to the bitter end.

 I can take a loss, that's no problem. But if it's not a loss where we fought hard until the last play, I'm going to be really disappointed.

[tyler735]

Rocking my black and gold tinted glasses today, so I'm going to say this will be a statement game for us and we win by 10+ points.

The biggest thing I've gathered from the team the past several games is that we are still beating teams despite giving up an absurd amount of penalties. I can't help but think that gets cleaned up a bit going forward, if it does, I don't think there is a team in the league that should be able to beat us at home.

[Canadian Saint]

So a couple of thoughts since it's friday and the game is coming up:

- The 49ers have a tremendous D-line, but it seems they give up yards on the ground. They are 22nd in yards/game in the NFL. If there is ever a time for Payton to unleash a Murray/Kamara two-headed monster, this is it. To churn out yards on the ground, mix in some screens with Kamara, it would allow us the ability to control the ball and set up some real manageable 3rd downs.

- 49er fans can correct me on this one, but I believe their D plays mostly a zone defense. If there is one type of coverage that CGM feasts on, it's zone. If we establish the run, it's going to open up big opportunities for CGM to get big chunks of yardage. Especially if Sherman is not 100%.

- If we blitz, I expect us to mostly blitz 4 or 5. With the 49ers being a top rushing team, I think DA will have them stopping the run primarily. I think we'll see a healthy dose of CGJ/PJ blitzing off the edge.

- I fully expect to see Vonn Bell on Kittle, with some help from Alonso(pls be healthy)/Robertson. I think we'll Lattimore on Deebo Samuel and Apple on Sanders.

- Swear to god if we give up another on side kick, I'll cut someone. Darren Rizzi being the prime candidate.

[Forge]

3 hours ago, Canadian Saint said:

The 49ers have a tremendous D-line, but it seems they give up yards on the ground. They are 22nd in yards/game in the NFL. If there is ever a time for Payton to unleash a Murray/Kamara two-headed monster, this is it. To churn out yards on the ground, mix in some screens with Kamara, it would allow us the ability to control the ball and set up some real manageable 3rd downs.

Correct. Fans knew this would be an issue when it was announced that we were switching to a wide 9, and something we discussed in the preseason. The loss of Kwon Alexander for the season didn't help matters. When we are lined up to stop the run on short yardage situations, we have been incredibly stout (we've stopped numerous 3rd / 4th and 1 running plays), but obviously we are set up for it at that point. 

3 hours ago, Canadian Saint said:

- 49er fans can correct me on this one, but I believe their D plays mostly a zone defense. If there is one type of coverage that CGM feasts on, it's zone. If we establish the run, it's going to open up big opportunities for CGM to get big chunks of yardage. Especially if Sherman is not 100%.

 

We do. But don't count on the chunk yardage in the passing game. We simply don't give it up. We give up the fewest passing yards in the NFL on a per game basis by a decent margin, and it's actually harder to throw on us than it is to run on us (we give up around 4.8 yards per carry against the run, only give up 4 net yards per passing attempt which I believe would be the first time in history that has happened, though the Patriots were on pace to do this as well, though I haven't check in on that in a few weeks). We have given up the fewest amount of 20+ yard pass plays in the NFL by a pretty wide margin (5 less than the next lowest), and a couple of them were just weird plays that don't happen often (the Andy Isabella touchdown and JJSS touchdown were both not super long plays that ended up being huge scores because of RAC when we messed that part up. The other long pass in Pittsburgh was against Jason Verrett). We give decent cushions and play everything in front of us. Its very difficult to throw deep on us (people keep saying that running opens this up, and it just never really happens even when teams are successful running), and even if Sherman is hurt, both Moseley and Spoon have played fantastic this year. 

3 hours ago, Canadian Saint said:

If we blitz, I expect us to mostly blitz 4 or 5. With the 49ers being a top rushing team, I think DA will have them stopping the run primarily. I think we'll see a healthy dose of CGJ/PJ blitzing off the edge.

People love to blitz us. It's kind of weird. Last I heard, Jimmy G was the most blitzed quarterback in the NFL. Not sure if that is just a byproduct of the opponents we have played being blitz heavy, or if teams scheme it purposefully that way because they think Jimmy is susceptible to that. 

3 hours ago, Canadian Saint said:

- I fully expect to see Vonn Bell on Kittle, with some help from Alonso(pls be healthy)/Robertson. I think we'll Lattimore on Deebo Samuel and Apple on Sanders.

 

I'm always curious to see what defenses do on Kittle. Obviously, you can't cover him with linebackers with a great deal of success outside of a couple notable ones. Baltimore had corners lined up on him sometimes, and while that was pretty successful in the passing game (though weather could have impacted that as well), the problem with doing that is you're going to be very light up front. Given how good Kittle is as a blocker, and the percentage of plays we run through a 21 or 12 personnel package (over 50% of our plays, second only to Minnesota) regardless of passing or running the football, it leaves a team susceptible to getting gashed on the ground (which is what happened to Baltimore, despite them winning). I think a 3 safety look is probably optimal if you can run it, though Kittle will likely still win that in the running game; it just shouldn't be as bad as putting a corner on him. 

[Canadian Saint]

Ooooh boy our LBers this game...

[Canadian Saint]

 

[Jlowe22]

4 hours ago, Forge said:

We do. But don't count on the chunk yardage in the passing game. We simply don't give it up. We give up the fewest passing yards in the NFL on a per game basis by a decent margin, and it's actually harder to throw on us than it is to run on us (we give up around 4.8 yards per carry against the run, only give up 4 net yards per passing attempt which I believe would be the first time in history that has happened, though the Patriots were on pace to do this as well, though I haven't check in on that in a few weeks). We have given up the fewest amount of 20+ yard pass plays in the NFL by a pretty wide margin (5 less than the next lowest), and a couple of them were just weird plays that don't happen often (the Andy Isabella touchdown and JJSS touchdown were both not super long plays that ended up being huge scores because of RAC when we messed that part up. The other long pass in Pittsburgh was against Jason Verrett). We give decent cushions and play everything in front of us. Its very difficult to throw deep on us (people keep saying that running opens this up, and it just never really happens even when teams are successful running), and even if Sherman is hurt, both Moseley and Spoon have played fantastic this year. 

 

We don't get chunk plays anyway.  It's either death by a thousand cuts or punt.

Also we're gonna see a lot of 3rd and 25 from holding calls.

[Forge]

2 minutes ago, Jlowe22 said:

We don't get chunk plays anyway.  It's either death by a thousand cuts or punt.

Also we're gonna see a lot of 3rd and 25 from holding calls.

And honestly, that's the way to do it against us. Arizona and Seattle both had success with plays like that. More so than any other passing offense, tbh. 

[Jlowe22]

Just now, Forge said:

And honestly, that's the way to do it against us. Arizona and Seattle both had success with plays like that. More so than any other passing offense, tbh. 

Yes, it's an interesting match up to watch if it wasn't my team playing to give me a heart attack.

[Jlowe22]

Good way to start.  Almost screwed ourselves though.

[Forge]

You guys came to play. Hell of an opening drive. Picked on our back up safety with that pass to Cook. He should be Brees' target all day. He's awful in coverage. I was hoping that we would shift Ward to Tartt's position and bring in Moore as the other safety, instead we brought in Harris who simply is not good.