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Houston v Denver


ET80

TEXANS v Broncos  

6 members have voted

  1. 1. Win?

    • Yes
      4
    • No
      2


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2 hours ago, -Hope- said:

you think that'd be enough to get BOB canned?

unfortunately for us (and, uh, apparently you) we're still ravaged by injuries. our secondary is patchwork and henry will probably play but almost certainly won't be at 100%. so it's gonna be a tough one.

Nope - Bob could lose out, miss the playoffs, and be welcomed back with open arms. O'Brien signed an extension thru 2022 last year and it would be completely out of character for Texans ownership to pull the plug before bottoming out, especially since Cal is in O'Brien's hip pocket (witness him firing his handpicked GM 1 year into a 5 year deal). 

  • Capers got 4 years, fired after 2-14.   No playoffs.
  • Kubiak got 8* years in a 2-14 season.  2x AFC South Championships.  2 playoff wins (both Bengals).  *2-11 when mercy firing happened
  • O'Brien is in year 6 having already survived the first bottoming out at 4-12.  3x AFC South Champs. 1 playoff win (vs. Connor Cook).

Following the trend line, you should set your watches for the Texans going 2-14 in 2021 to finally end the O'Brien reign of "slightly above average" after 8 seasons and some glorious AFC South participation banners in the rafters. The Watson factor may change the calculus a bit as if he's healthy this team likely has a floor of 7 wins so one of those triggering 2 win seasons, just isn't happening.  This is one area where the interests of the team and O'Brien's power grab aligned as he knows that if Watson goes down we're dunzo as is he.  If O'Brien actually manages to get a meaningful playoff win this season or next, he buys himself another contract extension.  This season that means going on the road to beat Balt, KC, or NE.  Obviously we've beaten 2 of those and gotten throttled by the other, but betting against Belichick at home in Jan is an entirely different matter and Reid has curb stomped this team in the playoffs with Alex Smith and Spencer Ware.  I guess if we lose twice to Tenn, but beat Tampa we could end up with a rubber match with Tenn in Jan, but going 1-2 vs. Tenn isn't going to win us any credibility points even if the 1 is in the playoffs.

If anything an actually legit playoff win (Connor Cook game was a bye week) would raise expectations for the Texans being favorites for finally taking the next step in 2020, which is where I see it crumbling down.  Watson's top 20 money will kick in in 2021 and after Mahomes becomes the highest paid player in history, Watson will clock in a shade under him - my bet is $40 million+ per season, most of it guaranteed like the Cousins deal.  Although the o-line will likely be solid assuming we don't screw up a Tunsil deal, and Hopkins has all the makings of a player who will still be effective past 35, but Watt will be on his last legs by then and there isn't a defensive star to be found aside from maybe Justin Reid.  Throwing away the 2020 draft will show up in 2021 especially if we get back to back throwaways like 2015 & 16 led to the 2016 collapse 12 & 13 led to 2013. (don't judge Rick Smith draft classes by the first round - 1 player doesn't make a draft (franchise QB aside) - missing on 6-7 critical other low cost pieces creates roster holes impossible to fill).  My bet is that a combo of raised expectations plus finishing behind Reich and Vrabel in the division could make a post 2020 firing possible even with a Fisher-esque 7-9 finish, but I think it would take another 4 win season to really do the trick (likely meaning Watson got hurt). 

If we miss the playoffs this year, RAC will take the bullet (which may happen anyway despite him doing some remarkable work with replacement level talent). If we miss next year, Bob likely gets something taken away like bringing in a legit OC or a real GM.  HC's rarely go into a lame duck season without a new deal, but I'm betting he gets a token 1-2 year extension after 2021 if he's still around.  In short, O'Brien is bullet-proof after this season, might get a chink in his armor next, but I don't see him taking any major damage until 2021.  At this point, I'm past rooting for his firing as it means Watson has gone down and I'm just hopeful that Watson/Nuk and a castmate manage to string together a playoff run in spite of him. I think the chances are better of O'Brien's ego causing some sort of implosion or higher profile career move (Pats, Notre Dame?).  Wouldn't it be ironic if some team had to pay draft picks to take O'Brien from us.  That is my best-case scenario at this point!

 

 

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