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TheOnlyThing

REASONS FOR OPTIMISM-DEFENSE

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For many years now, the Packers have not had a requisite Super Bowl champion defense. A quick review of the avg. points per game allowed/defensive ranking by year shows just how bad it has been:

YEAR               PPG                NFL RANKING                       

2018               25.0                22nd

2017               24.0                26th

2016               25.1                25-26T

2015               20.4                11th

2014               22.1                14-16T

2013               26.5                24th

2012               21.7                13th

2011               23.3                22nd

Comparing the Pack’s never in the top 10 defense during the past 8 seasons, and not even in the top 20 in 5 of those years, with the defenses of the SB winners during this time reveals the following:

YEAR               SB WINNER    PPG              NFL RANKING                       

2018               NE                    20.4                6th

2017               PHILLY            18.2                4th

2016               NE                    16.4                1st

2015               DEN                 17.9                4th

2014               NE                    19.5                7th

2013               SEA                  14.6                1st

2012               BALT                21.1                9th

2011               NYG                  23.1               21st

2010               GB                   15.8                1st

Outside of the Giants in 2011, every SB winner this decade has featured a top 10 scoring defense. The average defensive PPG rank of the SB winners has been #6.

Flash forward to Green Bay 2019. Despite its much-discussed flaws, the defense is currently giving up “only” 20.8 PPG. This is a >4 point improvement over last season.

If Seattle scores 20 or more points in LA tonight, the Packers will rank 12th in scoring defense.

Injuries can derail the best laid plans, but given that the D is not likely to lose much talent after this season, if once the season ends Gute can add talent at DL and ILB the way he has at OLB, S, and CB since he took over less than 2 years ago, the Pack just might finally have a SB worthy D in 2020.

Edited by TheOnlyThing

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Gute has been pouring resources into the defense since he was named GM ~2 years ago.  In Gute's two seasons the defense has added three RD1 picks, a RD2 a RD3 pick, and three high profile FA signings.  Now he just has to do it again next year and maybe the defense will crack the top-10?  That's depressing.

Edited by Mazrimiv

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Well, if the current 21.3 ppg given up stands, it is the second best the defense has been since 2010. 

Looking to next season the contributors that will be free agents are:  Blake Martinez, Tramon Williams, and Kyler Fackrell.  There is a reason to think that this group will maintain or improve in the future.

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4 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

Gute has been pouring resources into the defense since he was named GM ~2 years ago.  In Gute's two seasons the defense has added three RD1 picks, a RD2 a RD3 pick, and three high profile FA signings.  Now he just has to do it again next year and maybe the defense will crack the top-10?  That's depressing.

What is depressing is just how utterly talentless the D was that Gute inherited. 

But the future looks bright.

The D is relatively young and there are 4 new starters in 2019, Z. Smith, P. Smith, Savage, and Amos. 

Not like much talent is going to be going out the door after the season.

Barring injury, and adding some talent at DL & ILB  and there is no reason this can't be a top 10 unit next season.

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The D is good enough to win a super bowl if our O was 2017 good. Not sure we have the juice but between Rodgers ultra conservatism we are designed to win the turn over battle which means we have a 70% chance in most games.

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1 hour ago, Mazrimiv said:

Gute has been pouring resources into the defense since he was named GM ~2 years ago.  In Gute's two seasons the defense has added three RD1 picks, a RD2 a RD3 pick, and three high profile FA signings.  Now he just has to do it again next year and maybe the defense will crack the top-10?  That's depressing.

We had some really bad drafts. I consider myself a TT fan and appreciate what he did for this franchise but he was kept way past his prime, and well... Help us, Obi-Wan Gute. You're are only hope. So far so good, but he had to clean up a really big mess. Just look at the turnover over the last two seasons. 

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Josh Jackson played a lot today and I don't think his guy caught a pass all game long. That is improvement. He was playing well off of his guy on many plays I watched because I think they figured out he's best when he can see and react. Not so much on bump and run. 

Edited by Golfman

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4 minutes ago, Golfman said:

Josh Jackson played a lot today and I don't think he's guy caught a pass all game long. That is improvement. He was playing well off of his guy on many plays I watched because I think they figured out he's best when he can see and react. Not so much on bump and run. 

This ties in with what I said before the start of the season. I advocated him being moved to safety (where he has since been tried) which fits in with his strengths of reading reacting to what the QB is doing. Being at safety masks having marginal speed for CB and him not being very good with his back to the ball. 

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4 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Your optimism is . . . We don't have a Superbowl caliber defense?

This is an optimism thread, get your logic and high expectations out of here!!!  Anywho..

4 hours ago, Mazrimiv said:

Gute has been pouring resources into the defense since he was named GM ~2 years ago.  In Gute's two seasons the defense has added three RD1 picks, a RD2 a RD3 pick, and three high profile FA signings.  Now he just has to do it again next year and maybe the defense will crack the top-10?  That's depressing.

Hey it even takes me atleast 3 years to build a superbowl defense in madden! ( haven't touched it since 2007.)  

I don't think we have a superbowl defense, it's the number one thing I look at every year when I look at potential super bowl teams.  But we are trending in the right direction according to your numbers.  26 (Dom), 22, 12, and we still have the Bears and Staffordless Lions left.   Something to at least be optimistic about.

2 hours ago, Golfman said:

Josh Jackson played a lot today and I don't think his guy caught a pass all game long. That is improvement. He was playing well off of his guy on many plays I watched because I think they figured out he's best when he can see and react. Not so much on bump and run. 

Mostly remember the penalty he had.  Can't wait to see what he did on the coach film.  I haven't been impressed with this Redskins offence all year though, so it might not really even be worth watching.  Might be more telling that they couldn't get anything going when he was in.

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14 hours ago, pacman5252 said:

The D is good enough to win a super bowl if our O was 2017 good. Not sure we have the juice but between Rodgers ultra conservatism we are designed to win the turn over battle which means we have a 70% chance in most games.

The Boring Truth.  It's been hard to watch, but if we knew our offensive and defensive stats after 13 games no one would think we'd be 10-3.  It would be great if our offense played to the level we think they should be, but it could be worse- a lot worse.

Lucky? I'll take it with a first year coach.  The early success raised the expectation bar considerably, maybe we're not that good? Then MLF deserves even more credit.  Our confidence level is non-existent, rightly so, but we are as likely to win out as lose out.  My big IF: IF Arodg decides to win instead of protecting his passer rating......We are on a bye week 18.

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33 minutes ago, Dubz41 said:

The Boring Truth.  It's been hard to watch, but if we knew our offensive and defensive stats after 13 games no one would think we'd be 10-3.  It would be great if our offense played to the level we think they should be, but it could be worse- a lot worse.

Lucky? I'll take it with a first year coach.  The early success raised the expectation bar considerably, maybe we're not that good? Then MLF deserves even more credit.  Our confidence level is non-existent, rightly so, but we are as likely to win out as lose out.  My big IF: IF Arodg decides to win instead of protecting his passer rating......We are on a bye week 18.

I get frustrated with A Rods lack of aggression too, but in reality, the biggest reason we are 10-3 right now is the +11 in turnovers. That is directly correlated to Aaron Rodger's conservatism (T league low 2ints, doesn't take many shots unless we are down late or has a free play). By taking a few more shots in each game we'd be adding variance which can be good and bad. Maybe our YPP and PPG would be higher, but we'd probably have a few costly turnovers. With current version of Rodgers and looking at our opponents coming up, we'll likely win the TO battle vs Det/Chi which means those we probably win. @ Minny I already have penciled in as a loss.

 

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The only reason for optimism in this season is that if a trash team plays great and a great team plays like trash both teams have a chance at winning and that could happen 3 or 4 times in a row in the playoffs.

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This dude is like the Fox News of making threads

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