Clarkfn's NOLA Game Review (The Preferred Review for People Who Love Beignets and Beating the Saints)

[Forge]

19 hours ago, clarkfn2284 said:

 

All three are different runners. IMO. they make each other better. Coleman, no doubt has been least efficient, but he is the best of the three in regards to catching the ball and he has the most physical running style. Mostert is physical, but he never really has to be because he is so good at getting to the second and third levels so quickly. Coleman still has major HR potential every single time and if I need a guy to catch a ball out of the backfield I'm going to him. You have to think about the fact that Breida needs to be kept healthy as well so having the three guys available is best for all. Ideally, they all receive 8-12 carries/touches. The thing with these three is that any of them could be the guy each week, so why stop what has been working for most of the season?

I'll be honest...I disagree with almost all of this except that maybe Coleman has the best actual hands (though he hasn't been uber impressive in the passing game due to his struggles in route running). So just because I like to debate and argue and hear myself talk ( as everyone here knows), I'm going to give a full response below lol. 

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All three are different runners. IMO. they make each other better.

Different runners? Eh. They all have 4.35 type speed and the scheme is pretty easy in terms of what it wants them to do. I'm not sure how they make each other better, unless you are simply referencing the fact that all three get snap share, in which case Coleman could easily be replaced by Wilson or whomever. 

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Coleman, no doubt has been least efficient, but he is the best of the three in regards to catching the ball and he has the most physical running style

Vehemently disagree with the bolded. I have never heard anyone describe Coleman as "physical". Out of the three, he is certainly the least decisive with his running style, he's got fewer yards after contact than both of them despite more carries, and he has broken fewer tackles than Mostert, while having the same amount as Breida despite that certainly not being the latter's forte and having more carries. He goes down rather easily when hit in my opinion. 

I would agree with the hands part of this pass catching equation, but he's absolutely had some weird route running this year. 

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Mostert is physical, but he never really has to be because he is so good at getting to the second and third levels so quickly

This is actually just a positive for Mostert. He and Breida are more decisive runners (maybe a little faster at this point of Coleman's career as well) and that's the reason that they get to that second level so much faster and get hit later. Neither of them do much dancing, if at all, which Coleman definitely will do from time to time. They both have superior yardage before contact and yardage after contact than Coleman. 

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Coleman still has major HR potential every single time and if I need a guy to catch a ball out of the backfield I'm going to him.

They all have the home run potential, and Coleman is the least adept at making that happen, as evidenced by the statistic I posted before about the efficiency of Mostert and Breida in the percentage of their carries that go for 10+ yards (both of them are top 5). 

I actually prefer Coleman lined as a receiver as a pass catcher as opposed to in the backfield, which I've actually mentioned in game day threads. For some reason, he just has a weird discombobulation in his routes and pass catching when coming out of the backfield. This is not a season where he has looked particularly adept, to be honest. But again, certainly agree that he has the best hands. 

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You have to think about the fact that Breida needs to be kept healthy as well so having the three guys available is best for all.

Breida ran the ball 6 times  and touched it 7. How much do we have to protect him? If he can't handle 10-12 touches a game, he's not even a 1b at that point. And honestly, I don't think that that is a situation where we feel that 10-12 touches is over working him. He's injury prone, it happens, and odds are it will eventually happen whether we give him 7 or 10. We also utilize other players and positions in the running game. We ran the ball 22 times against the Saints. We run the ball on average about 30 times. I'm not saying that we should be taking Coleman out completely, but he should definitely be bringing up the rear with this. On an average, 30 carry game, I'd say a couple go to positions other than running back (or to Juice), leaving 28. I don't see there would be a major issue going 13 - 10 - 5 with the three running backs. We will always have three "available". 

 

[clarkfn2284]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

I'll be honest...I disagree with almost all of this except that maybe Coleman has the best actual hands (though he hasn't been uber impressive in the passing game due to his struggles in route running). So just because I like to debate and argue and hear myself talk ( as everyone here knows), I'm going to give a full response below lol. 

Different runners? Eh. They all have 4.35 type speed and the scheme is pretty easy in terms of what it wants them to do. I'm not sure how they make each other better, unless you are simply referencing the fact that all three get snap share, in which case Coleman could easily be replaced by Wilson or whomever. 

Vehemently disagree with the bolded. I have never heard anyone describe Coleman as "physical". Out of the three, he is certainly the least decisive with his running style, he's got fewer yards after contact than both of them despite more carries, and he has broken fewer tackles than Mostert, while having the same amount as Breida despite that certainly not being the latter's forte and having more carries. He goes down rather easily when hit in my opinion. 

I would agree with the hands part of this pass catching equation, but he's absolutely had some weird route running this year. 

This is actually just a positive for Mostert. He and Breida are more decisive runners (maybe a little faster at this point of Coleman's career as well) and that's the reason that they get to that second level so much faster and get hit later. Neither of them do much dancing, if at all, which Coleman definitely will do from time to time. They both have superior yardage before contact and yardage after contact than Coleman. 

They all have the home run potential, and Coleman is the least adept at making that happen, as evidenced by the statistic I posted before about the efficiency of Mostert and Breida in the percentage of their carries that go for 10+ yards (both of them are top 5). 

I actually prefer Coleman lined as a receiver as a pass catcher as opposed to in the backfield, which I've actually mentioned in game day threads. For some reason, he just has a weird discombobulation in his routes and pass catching when coming out of the backfield. This is not a season where he has looked particularly adept, to be honest. But again, certainly agree that he has the best hands. 

Breida ran the ball 6 times  and touched it 7. How much do we have to protect him? If he can't handle 10-12 touches a game, he's not even a 1b at that point. And honestly, I don't think that that is a situation where we feel that 10-12 touches is over working him. He's injury prone, it happens, and odds are it will eventually happen whether we give him 7 or 10. We also utilize other players and positions in the running game. We ran the ball 22 times against the Saints. We run the ball on average about 30 times. I'm not saying that we should be taking Coleman out completely, but he should definitely be bringing up the rear with this. On an average, 30 carry game, I'd say a couple go to positions other than running back (or to Juice), leaving 28. I don't see there would be a major issue going 13 - 10 - 5 with the three running backs. We will always have three "available". 

 

Yes, different runners. Mostert is great at getting to the edge, Breida has elite vision and cutback ability and Coleman has a more physical style of running than the other two. Just because people wouldn't describe him that doesn't mean he isn't the more physical of the three. Wilson cannot replace Coleman. He doesn't have the same HR potential or speed that Coleman possesses and he is nowhere near as good in blitz pickup and pass catching. For the record, I think Breida may be the best in blitz pick up. A lot of talk about Coleman's efficiency, but to make the best assessment of his effectiveness versus the other two, we would need to look at the blocking and play design on each paly as well. Coleman still has been the least efficient, no doubt, but it would be interesting to see how much of it falls on him. 

Again, it is paramount to have all three available to give the defense a constant fresh back to have to tackle. Breida has a ton of success late in games, especially when he has been protected during the game. I'm not saying that Coleman has been as good as the other two this season. He clearly hasn't, but it doesn't change the fact that having all three only helps this team in multiple ways. Be it in the pass game, health, running styles etc.

We also have to take into account the fact that as a game has progressed this season Shanahan usually rides the hot hand. None of these guys are work horse backs. In fact, I don't even believe that a two headed monster would work with these guys. They each are their best when they see 7-10 touches a game. Why change what is working?

 

 

 

[Forge]

4 hours ago, clarkfn2284 said:

Yes, different runners. Mostert is great at getting to the edge, Breida has elite vision and cutback ability and Coleman has a more physical style of running than the other two. Just because people wouldn't describe him that doesn't mean he isn't the more physical of the three

No, but statistics don't support it either. He's less efficient in yards after contact than either of the other two, and is less efficient at breaking tackles. This isn't a new thing either. He broke half as many tackles as Breida did last year (6 to 12) despite having more carries, and averaged fewer yards after contact than Breida, and we can all agree that this isn't exactly something breida is known for. Mostert broke almost as many tackles on 34 carries (5) as Coleman did on 167 carries. Mostert also nearly doubled the yards after contact (3.5 to 1.8). 

4 hours ago, clarkfn2284 said:

A lot of talk about Coleman's efficiency, but to make the best assessment of his effectiveness versus the other two, we would need to look at the blocking and play design on each paly as well. Coleman still has been the least efficient, no doubt, but it would be interesting to see how much of it falls on him. 

This is what yards after contact and broken tackles would quantify, and he's less efficient than both in these regards. These figures are solely on the running back, not the blocking, play design, etc. He picks up less yards than either on a per carry basis once he's hit. 

4 hours ago, clarkfn2284 said:

Again, it is paramount to have all three available to give the defense a constant fresh back to have to tackle

Availability really isn't the question though. Of course he would be available as we are always going to have 3 running backs active on game day. If you want to give  him 5 touches out of 30 that's fine. I just don't know why you want more touches for him. He's just not that good this year. 

4 hours ago, clarkfn2284 said:

In fact, I don't even believe that a two headed monster would work with these guys. They each are their best when they see 7-10 touches a game. Why change what is working?

 

A two headed monster works fine. LIS, I'm not opposed to giving him 3-5 carries a game depending on the amount of times we run the football. Honestly, I don't even think that this team fully utilizes a 3 man backfield as it would be suggested.

A lot of the earlier stuff had mitigating circumstances.

• Tampa Bay-  While the final run out was 15 / 9 / 6, Mostert only carried twice I believe before half. He got the bulk of his work when Coleman went out with injury at half.
• Bengals game - 12 /13 / 10, but almost all of Wilson's carries came on the last drive of third quarter and into the fourth quarter when we were up 34-10 heading into the 4th quarter when we started subbing in the reserves as the game was out of hand. He actually only had 2 carries prior to that and we relied on Mostert / Breida when the game was still competitive. 
• The Steelers game is one where we partitioned off the running game in a 3 headed style (14 / 12 / 8).
• The browns game was 16 / 11 / 7, however this was another blow out, and 4 of Mostert's 7 came on the last drive and the second to last drive when the game was midway through the fourth quarter and we were up 31-3.
• Rams game was 18/13/4. Not really a 3 man split (and I'm fine with this kind of split if Coleman is the one getting 4 carries).
• The Washington game was 20 / 8 / 5 with Coleman getting 20 carries.
• Panthers game was 11 / 11/ 9, but again, another blow out. 5 of Mostert's 9 carries came when we were up 41-13 in the 4th quarter.
• AZ - 15 / 12 / 1.
• Seattle - 10 / 9 / 6. I believe that all of Mostert's runs came after Breida exited this game with an injury. 
• AZ - 12 / 6 split, that's it. 
• GB - 11 / 6 / 2 (wilson)
• Balt - 19 / 5
• NO - 10 / 6 /3

So I'd argue the only game where we used a true, 3 man split was the Pitt game. We have run extremely well in multiple games utilizing mainly just a 2 man backfield. So I'd say that what I'm suggesting is actually what is working, just flipping Coleman from the lead man back duties to the third man. 

I do agree that we should ride a hot hand, and if Coleman shows that he has that in a game, I don't mind adjusting to that on the fly. But he has to show that in game

[clarkfn2284]

3 hours ago, Forge said:

No, but statistics don't support it either. He's less efficient in yards after contact than either of the other two, and is less efficient at breaking tackles. This isn't a new thing either. He broke half as many tackles as Breida did last year (6 to 12) despite having more carries, and averaged fewer yards after contact than Breida, and we can all agree that this isn't exactly something breida is known for. Mostert broke almost as many tackles on 34 carries (5) as Coleman did on 167 carries. Mostert also nearly doubled the yards after contact (3.5 to 1.8). 

This is what yards after contact and broken tackles would quantify, and he's less efficient than both in these regards. These figures are solely on the running back, not the blocking, play design, etc. He picks up less yards than either on a per carry basis once he's hit. 

Availability really isn't the question though. Of course he would be available as we are always going to have 3 running backs active on game day. If you want to give  him 5 touches out of 30 that's fine. I just don't know why you want more touches for him. He's just not that good this year. 

A two headed monster works fine. LIS, I'm not opposed to giving him 3-5 carries a game depending on the amount of times we run the football. Honestly, I don't even think that this team fully utilizes a 3 man backfield as it would be suggested.

A lot of the earlier stuff had mitigating circumstances.

• Tampa Bay-  While the final run out was 15 / 9 / 6, Mostert only carried twice I believe before half. He got the bulk of his work when Coleman went out with injury at half.
• Bengals game - 12 /13 / 10, but almost all of Wilson's carries came on the last drive of third quarter and into the fourth quarter when we were up 34-10 heading into the 4th quarter when we started subbing in the reserves as the game was out of hand. He actually only had 2 carries prior to that and we relied on Mostert / Breida when the game was still competitive. 
• The Steelers game is one where we partitioned off the running game in a 3 headed style (14 / 12 / 8).
• The browns game was 16 / 11 / 7, however this was another blow out, and 4 of Mostert's 7 came on the last drive and the second to last drive when the game was midway through the fourth quarter and we were up 31-3.
• Rams game was 18/13/4. Not really a 3 man split (and I'm fine with this kind of split if Coleman is the one getting 4 carries).
• The Washington game was 20 / 8 / 5 with Coleman getting 20 carries.
• Panthers game was 11 / 11/ 9, but again, another blow out. 5 of Mostert's 9 carries came when we were up 41-13 in the 4th quarter.
• AZ - 15 / 12 / 1.
• Seattle - 10 / 9 / 6. I believe that all of Mostert's runs came after Breida exited this game with an injury. 
• AZ - 12 / 6 split, that's it. 
• GB - 11 / 6 / 2 (wilson)
• Balt - 19 / 5
• NO - 10 / 6 /3

So I'd argue the only game where we used a true, 3 man split was the Pitt game. We have run extremely well in multiple games utilizing mainly just a 2 man backfield. So I'd say that what I'm suggesting is actually what is working, just flipping Coleman from the lead man back duties to the third man. 

I do agree that we should ride a hot hand, and if Coleman shows that he has that in a game, I don't mind adjusting to that on the fly. But he has to show that in game

As they all do every week. Reality is they will always ride the hot hand. 

 

BTW, what a world this is huh? This is what we have to pick apart........what a time to be alive. Lol.