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GDT Week 15: Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs: Drewcember is here!

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Our Denver Broncos travel to Arrowhead to face the rival Kansas City Chiefs for an early morning game. Denver is coming off a beat down victory over the division leading Houston Texans. Kansas City comes home after wrecking the Cheating Patriots.

 

Things to watch: Can Lock keep his insane play going? Will James play a full game? How will Denver’s LBers and DB’s hold up against the fast paced KC weapons? 

Edited by iLikeDefense
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I could be wrong, but I see Drew Lock struggling in this game. Lots of learning moments. Arrowhead is a brutal place to play in December and he’ll have to match their offensive output. If he even posts a respectable stat line and continues to avoid the deer in the headlights look, I’ll be all in on him. 

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My nephew, who lives in KC area, says there is no fanfare about Lock's first professional return to the area and they really don't give us a snowball's chance in heck to even keep it close. He says the fans/analysts out there point to how they aren't injured like they were the 1st go round out in Denver.

Don't mind being under-estimated, much like HOU just did, hope the results are the same.

 

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the Patriots attack is a mess this season. Apart from Edelman, Brady has no air support. The Chiefs' defense is not as good as it looks.
If Scangarello plans the game well, Denver can track the distance on 4 QTs. The key point will be the defense of Fangio. Can he slow down a losing Mahomes since his injury and less mobile than before.

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It seems like a homecoming for Lock, hope he can perform well against a very bad Chiefs defense.  But, it is Arrowhead when even the better Broncos teams played horribly against bad Chief teams.  

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There is no comparison between playing at Arrowhead and at the NRG. On the all 22 film you can see empty seats all over in Houston last week; Arrowhead is up there with any venue in the league as a home field advantage.

All signs point to this being a rough game. A much improved Chiefs Defense, a big game for the Chiefs in their hunt for a bye and the potential that we're going to be playing from behind.

 

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I think we lose - but I don't think being a 10+ pt underdog, is warranted, for 3 main reasons:

-Scangarello is calling a fantastic 1H 2x with Lock, other than the 1st KC game.   WIth a short week and the KC D injuries, it was so obvious to go run-heavy to keep Mahomes off the field, and where KC was weakest, that DC Spagnolo guessed right almost every time on 1st/2nd down, and made us predictable on 3rd down.  That game was his low point, but since then, Scangarello's game planning in the 1H has taken off.     That's a sign of excellent pre-game film analysis and preparation.   It's all coaching pre-game (and in-game execution, obv).  I expect the same this time.    

-Mahomes' hand injury likely limits his effectiveness.  Their run game is non-existent with Shady McCoy (both Williams are hurt) - he looks like he has no juice left.  Contrast that to the TNF game, where he was all over our run D.   I do not expect a repeat, with Purcell/Alexander Johnson now playing as fixtures, and Jackson as S, our run D will give them fits.   That's still a huge problem esp since Tyreek Hill's speed is impossible to contain, but the hand injury factors in.

-James getting a lot of heat for being slow to return; but there's no denying when he's out on the field, he's a big upgrade.    More of him playing can only help our biggest weakness on O.

Now, we're still likely going to lose for 4 equally (or more) valid reasons:

-It's not just HOU's secondary that isn't great - their pass rush since JJ Watt went down, was non-existent save for the NE game (and remember, NE lost their starting C and went in without their T, with no WR's who can separate, the OL couldn't protect Brady vs. a blitz heavy package).    Interestingly, HOU didn't call up much of a blitz package early, and didn't generate pressure to the same degree.   That was a major mistake IMO - Lock's biggest weakness is blitz reaction.   I do not expect KC will make that mistake, and they have the pass rushers to make it work.   And, while the pass D gets rightfully maligned from past years, the crazy part is their pass secondary is much improved this year.   Sutton is the only guy who presents a matchup problem, so I expect he gets bracket coverage.   How Fant and the rest of the WR's do will be huge hear.

-Mahomes is still amazing, even with a bad hand, and he'll have his trademark mobility back, unlike the early games, where he played through a HAS.  'Nuff said.

-As @lomaxgrUK pointed out, playing at KC is such a huge advantage their D over our OL, and helps their OL play up against our pass rush.

-A hugely underrated part of any game - ST's.   And remember, KC is a perennial top 3 unit.  Dave Toub's units always dominate ours.  I have no reason to expect any different outcome this week.

I think 10+ pts is way too much, we should be a 6-7 point dog, now that our O is functional.  But yes, this is going to be the best test of Lock's progress.   KC's D is not an elite unit, but it's not a bottom 6-7 unit like KC (and remember, our success against LAC was off the first 2 drives, and an insane Sutton catch and RZ start thanks to the TO - it's likely why HOU went in with a very vanilla plan, confident Lock wasn't ready for a road game - oops).   KC is a mid-level unit, but with a huge HFA and a coaching staff that knows us well, and will have better game film to see where Lock hurts D's (and where he can be exploited).  

I'd say we'll lose 24-17, but with more hope than usual, and throw a little scare into KC.   Either way, I'll very much look forward to seeing the game in full, not working this weekend (yay).   I honestly can't remember looking forward to seeing a game in December with as much as hope since 2016 (and even then, it was hope because we were fighting for a WC spot, but more long-term pessimism since our best guys were getting older, and the QB fight was so bad in general).

Edited by Broncofan

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I'm mad at myself, because I actually have to go to Kansas City for work on Monday, and I didn't even consider leaving a day earlier and going to the game. SMH. Gonna get some BBQ though.

Anyway, I don't expect to win this game, but I do think this is going to be somewhat close. Chiefs clinched the division already, Mahomes has a potential hand injury, and the team is playing well and playing energized with Lock. I could see them playing it somewhat safe, as Denver does have a pass rush that could potentially unsettle/injure Mahomes further and I don't think KC wants to chance that. 

I think Scangarello continues to pull out all of the stops but KC has firepower no matter how injured Mahomes may or may not be. I will predict 24-20 KC.

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19 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

I'm mad at myself, because I actually have to go to Kansas City for work on Monday, and I didn't even consider leaving a day earlier and going to the game. SMH. Gonna get some BBQ though.

Anyway, I don't expect to win this game, but I do think this is going to be somewhat close. Chiefs clinched the division already, Mahomes has a potential hand injury, and the team is playing well and playing energized with Lock. I could see them playing it somewhat safe, as Denver does have a pass rush that could potentially unsettle/injure Mahomes further and I don't think KC wants to chance that. 

I think Scangarello continues to pull out all of the stops but KC has firepower no matter how injured Mahomes may or may not be. I will predict 24-20 KC.

One thing to consider - if KC wins out - they get a bye with a BUF W over NE.    I don't think they'll be on cruise control until it's clear they can't get the 2 spot.

Edited by Broncofan

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3 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

There is no comparison between playing at Arrowhead and at the NRG. On the all 22 film you can see empty seats all over in Houston last week; Arrowhead is up there with any venue in the league as a home field advantage.

All signs point to this being a rough game. A much improved Chiefs Defense, a big game for the Chiefs in their hunt for a bye and the potential that we're going to be playing from behind.

 

Agree, Lock is going to look like a rookie in one or maybe 2 of these final games. This Cheifs matchup looks like it has the ingredients to be one of those stinkers. Its going to take some next level scheming from Scangerello to help Lock out in this one. 

Have to control the clock and make simple throws. As long as the team doesnt put him in position to have to throw the ball 40 times late, I think he can get out of there just fine with a 'put the training wheels on and dont do too much' type offensive gameplan

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I just listened to the press conferences from Vic, Lock, Sutton and Lindsay and this team has an aura about them that I have not heard in a long, long time. There is confidence, there is positivity, there is excitement. 

Now, I would be crazy to predict a win but I think we see a much, much different game than we saw the first time we met KC. I'll share some more detailed thoughts later but I think we keep things much more competitive than many KC observers expect. 

KC: 27

Denver: 20

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Judging by how it went down, I don't think this is a minor injury (not a 2020 thing, but a RoS thing, given we only have 3 games left).  You don't need to give rookies a rest day.   No Fant is no bueno vs. any D.   Will be a big test for Lock if he only has Sutton as his main weapon.

Edited by Broncofan
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2 hours ago, jsthomp2007 said:

Seems like TEs were a big target for Lock.  Hopefully Fant can rub some dirt on this foot.

My fantasy team approves this message lol

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