Was Saquon the right pick for Giants?

[HoboRocket]

 

There were two generational talents at their position in the 2018 draft: Quenton Nelson and Saquon Bakley.

Now, Nelson was the better player of the two and the best guard that I've ever scouted, but we can't act like the Giants drafting him instead would have fixed their OL. The Colts didn't JUST draft Quenton Nelson and suddenly their OL was fixed. No, they drafted Braden Smith, who has, by all accounts, been a good right tackle playing on the opposite side of the line from Nelson. Talented left tackle Anthony Castonzo, who we all knew was good, was finally healthy after suffering from injury after injury. Ditto for center Ryan Kelly, who is an above-average player at the position. I think the pieces being in place allowed new starting right guard Matt Glowinski to really come into his own and play well last year. But yeah. The Colts didn't just add one generational guard and have a good offensive line. They basically added five offensive linemen with the three new starters and the other two getting healthy. 

Now, would Nelson have been a better pick than Barkley? Perhaps. Nelson is the best guard in the NFL, but there is certainly an argument for Barkley as the best RB in the league - though, stats-wise, it has diminished somewhat with the injuries and uneven blocking this year. And adding one offensive lineman isn't going to fix your team. Look at the Browns. They had probably the best offensive lineman EVER playing for them for YEARS. That still didn't prevent them from having the worst team in league history. 

Heck, the Giants DID draft a guard early in the 2018 draft - Will Hernandez. And while Hernandez hasn't been dominant, it's fair to point out that he's flashed in the run game, and while his pass pro is uneven, he's still allowed a grand total of ZERO sack this year despite being in the top half of starting guards in terms of snaps played. And he only has 3 penalties on the year, as well. He's not been a liability. Is the Giants OL still bad? Yup.

But what if they had BOTH Hernandez AND Nelson? Well, that could be a fun combo! But overall, it's just a projection since both are pretty much strictly left guards as far as the experience goes. That doesn't mean a position switch isn't a possibility. In fact, it might even be successful! Heck, I pointed out in this same post that Braden Smith, a college guard, was able to successfully transition to right tackle in the NFL (which in itself combats the notion that the best offensive linemen play tackle in college and has some strong implications for lazy offensive line scouting in general). A Nelson-Hernandez tandem on the interior could be dominant and plow huge running lanes for whoever they're starting at RB. That wouldn't solve issues at the tackle positions for the Giants. Perhaps the guard duo would help the center significantly. 

I still would pick Barkley. He's an elite runningback. He's arguably the most-talented at the position in the league. He has the explosion of a 180-200 lbs RB and the leg drive/power of a 240 lbs RB. He's phenomenal catching the football. He's crazy elusive. He's crazy STRONG.

Saquon can push the pile or take it a mile.

And honestly, teams NEED an identity for their offense. What teams have been offensively successful without a tone-setter or game-changer? Football is a game of mismatches. The Chiefs have a wealth of game-changers with Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce. The Ravens have an identity with Lamar. Heck, the 49ers have George Kittle, who really looks a lot like Gronk 2.0. Gronk was a game-changer for the Pats, as is Brady. Brees, Thomas, and Kamara are all game-changers for the Saints. Julio was for the Falcons during their Super Bowl run. Heck, James White was a game-changing mismatch in the passing game against the Falcons in the Super Bowl!

Look at what Todd Gurley did for the Rams' offense! He instantly added a spark that enabled the worst passing offense (led by Saint Nick himself) in the league to win games. In his second season, his blocking was awful, there were no threats in the passing game, and the QB play was possibly the worst in Rams history. Even in his "bad" games Gurley still helped the Rams to win that year. For example, in Rams @ Cards in Week 4 of the 2016 season, JTG didn't have a big game. No touchdowns low yardage per carry. But he still set the tone for the Rams' offense - an offense that, aside from an awful tackle attempt that led to a long and fluky Brian Quick touchdown, struggled all game. He didn't get much running room, but he was a big factor in the passing game. He had several clutch catches for first downs, and he made plays when there weren't any. For example, inside of 10 minutes in the 4th quarter, with the Rams trailing, JTG (Just Todd Gurley, for those who are unfamiliar with the nickname) caught a short pass in the flat as the rush came in on Keenum. He was tackled immediately - or so it seemed. Gurley spun down and caught him self right above the ground, broke the tackle, got up, and went for about eight more yards. He MADE the play. Or at the very end of the game, the Rams offense was inside the Cardinals' five. Gurley didn't carry the football on this particular play, the one that ended up being the end for the offense. Heck, he didn't even GET the football. He was asked to pass protect. And do you know what happened? The Cardinals blitzed. Rob Havenstein, playing right tackle, picked up the blitz. But it left Markus Golden free off the edge. Todd Gurley stepped up and DESTROYED Markus Golden in a one-on-one. And Markus Golden isn't exactly a replacement-level edge rusher, either. The blitz created an easy read for Keenum to throw the short touchdown toss and Gurley created the window of time to do it. He changed that game. There are other examples, too, of times when he changed the game even when it wasn't great stat-wise. Against the Bucs that year, Jameis Winston DIDN'T melt down, but the Rams still managed to win and put up almost 40 points with the least offensively-talented roster in football with Gurley playing clutch football in the red zone, converting short-yardage opportunities, and turning two separate plays that should have been losses of six, and he broke the tackle to turn it into a positive gain (though, they went for gains of 1 and 3, respectively. Even when he was "bad," he still changed the team and changed games. 

Saquon is that kind of game-changer for the Giants. He changes the way that the defense plays simply by being on the field. He can create from nothing. Can he do it every time? Of course not! Nobody can. But he can do it more than any other runningback on the planet. He's an elite talent, a "triple-threat" that can make plays any way that you ask him to. Even this year, when he's had to deal with a rookie turnover-machine QB and a season-wrecking injury (which he fought through in an outstanding amount of time), Barkley still has almost 100 scrimmage yards a game. 

Yes, they could have drafted differently and gotten a cheaper runningback later, and still had decent production. The issue? You can't replace the talent-level of someone like Saquon Barkley. He's a generational talent for a reason. And even if you like Adrian Peterson better, you'll still admit that Saquon is AT LEAST a once-in-a-decade prospect at the position. 

I'd totally understand if you'd prefer that the Giants drafted Quenton Nelson or Josh Allen instead. I probably would have still drafted Barkley, and pretty much everybody on this forum knows of my love for Josh Allen(s) and Quenton Nelson.

[Nzd07]

generation talent or not, positional value matters. should've taken Darnold

[HoboRocket]

On 12/12/2019 at 5:03 PM, TXsteeler said:

RB is the least important position in the NFL by far. They can't carry games and only make differences for the top 5 or so teams in the league that already have the rest of the pieces required to win a SB.

I strongly disagree. 

Top RBs carry games and make differences for their teams. David Johnson did so for an ailing and broken Cardinals team in 2016, a year where Michael Floyd went AWOL, John Brown got sickle-cell, and Carson Palmer had a broken hand. They didn't make the playoffs, but they would have been a lot worse if they had, say, Chris Johnson, who had played well for them the year prior. Saquon did so for the Giants this year and last. Adrian Peterson COMPLETELY carried the Vikings offense in the 2015 season. He carried his team to the playoffs. Todd Gurley has for the Rams basically his whole career, even in his first two seasons where the Rams had the worst offensive roster in football. Did those guys make the playoffs? No. But they still carried games and made a positive difference in their teams' records. The reason that most RBs only make differences when the rest of the pieces are in place? They're these throwaway replacement-level guys that people draft or acquire cheaply BECAUSE they believe that RB is the least important position in the NFL. Give me a top-5 RB over a top-5 WR any day of the week. And that's coming from a guy that has Nuk as his profile pic.

[jrry32]

On 12/12/2019 at 3:31 PM, PapaShogun said:

Not a fan of picking running backs that high. Especially if you need a quaterback. The 49ers this year have the number one rushing offense in the NFL largely on the backs of two undrafted free agents. 

You also have a team being coached by a Shanahan. It's like Seattle not valuing CBs that highly in the Draft. Most teams can't do that.

On 12/12/2019 at 3:24 PM, upriser7 said:

Saquon is a insane talent but there were concerns about picking a RB with 2nd pick as value wise, there are other positions which are lot more valuable than a RB. 2 seasons (almost) later, Giants have had terrible record for 2nd straight season..Saquon himself is having a relatively mediocre season (I guess he can't really do much if your line can't block). What if Giants picked someone like Quenton Nelson with that 2nd pick instead of Saquon? Quenton Nelson for me would have had lot more impact on this team than Saquon.

So, do you still think Saquon was the right pick?

Yes.

[TheKillerNacho]

22 minutes ago, HoboRocket said:

 Give me a top-5 RB over a top-5 WR any day of the week. And that's coming from a guy that has Nuk as his profile pic.

i mean

that's like saying you'd take a top 5 moldy taco over a top 5 used condom

Both postiions are pretty uncorrelated to winning tbh.

[NYGiantsman10]

Honestly it's hard to say for me at this point I'm pretty torn. 

I think what annoys a lot of Giants fans (including myself) is that Gettleman boasted about not even taking a phone call for the #2 pick. I get having conviction about a player but if that's true it seems like a bad business practice to not even check all your options. 

I think the Giants took him not just because of his talent, but because of his humility and character. I think they saw someone that could be the "face of the franchise" with Eli on the way out and Odell not being wholly embraced. 

Personally I love Saquon. I really hope the franchise can get turned around because I hate seeing him toil on horrible, uncompetitive teams. My worst fear is seeing him have a Barry Sanders-esque career filled with individual highlights but not very much winning. 

Personally I was a big Darnold guy. I saw him play live and thought he'd be perfect for the Giants. Like most things with the Giants right now, a lot of how the Saquon pick will be viewed down the line depends on what Daniel Jones becomes. 

[HoboRocket]

4 minutes ago, NYGiantsman10 said:

Honestly it's hard to say for me at this point I'm pretty torn. 

I think what annoys a lot of Giants fans (including myself) is that Gettleman boasted about not even taking a phone call for the #2 pick. I get having conviction about a player but if that's true it seems like a bad business practice to not even check all your options. 

I think the Giants took him not just because of his talent, but because of his humility and character. I think they saw someone that could be the "face of the franchise" with Eli on the way out and Odell not being wholly embraced. 

Personally I love Saquon. I really hope the franchise can get turned around because I hate seeing him toil on horrible, uncompetitive teams. My worst fear is seeing him have a Barry Sanders-esque career filled with individual highlights but not very much winning. 

Personally I was a big Darnold guy. I saw him play live and thought he'd be perfect for the Giants. Like most things with the Giants right now, a lot of how the Saquon pick will be viewed down the line depends on what Daniel Jones becomes. 

I agree. And of all the years to pass on a QB, 2018 was extremely gutsy. There were five clear-cut first-round QB prospects. 

I also watched Darnold live and was extremely impressed. He's so much like Tony Romo that it isn't even funny. Maybe he'll be able to develop his processor as much as Romo without the injury problems.

Also, imagine if the Giants had passed on a generational RB in Barkley for a potential franchise QB Josh Allen, and then passed on a potential franchise QB in Daniel Jones for the best player available (Josh Allen). 

[SmittyBacall]

57 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

i mean

that's like saying you'd take a top 5 moldy taco over a top 5 used condom

Both postiions are pretty uncorrelated to winning tbh.

Yet no one would criticize a team for taking a WR top 5.

Edited December 15, 2019 by SmittyBacall

[rocky_rams]

55 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

i mean

that's like saying you'd take a top 5 moldy taco over a top 5 used condom

Both postiions are pretty uncorrelated to winning tbh.

Moldy taco it is.

No way would I take a top 5 used condom

[ny92mike]

I would have been just as happy if the Giants had drafted Nelson.

[buno67]

I def say its wrong cause they could have gotten the best back from that draft in the 2nd rd

[Nabbs4u]

I'm just thankful the Ravens moved up to take Lamar because the idea of him being paired with Saquon for the next decade,  would be absurd!

Danny Pesos forever!!🍺

[TecmoSuperJoe]

5 hours ago, jrry32 said:

You also have a team being coached by a Shanahan. It's like Seattle not valuing CBs that highly in the Draft. Most teams can't do that.

This is true. Kyle is an offensive genius. 

[diamondbull424]

I was a huge Saquan fan. I loved AD but Barkley is better. I feel Saquan is a more explosive version of LDT. That said, he can only do so much. I think they should’ve taken calls for a trade down, heck I would’ve called the Jets and looked to convince them to trade up. You know they were going QB and if they go Barkley you’ve still got Nelson on the board as a slamdunk pick.

But Saquan is a star and NY needs a star. Are we looking at the Saquan pick as poorly if the Giants had selected say.. Orlando Brown in the 3rd round? Now with a line of Zietler, Hernandez, Brown with Barkley running you’ve got an identity and potential.

I don’t fault the Giants for taking the best RB prospect I’ve seen in my lifetime. I fault them for having a better building strategy. I’ve never been a fan of when teams try and plug holes here and there. I’m a believer in overwhelming opponents with an elite unit. I can understand not being happy with last years QBs over Barkley. But as opposed to trying to build the defense and the OL, I would’ve just focused on building up the OL and then used late round picks and UFA for the defense. Once the OL is good, who cares if the defense is blowing leads or getting torched... that becomes next years focus.

So that being said, with having their QB and their RB of the future. My strategy would be the same. I would neglect the defense and inject OL pieces while taking advantage of this deep WR class to grab a few later. If Chase Young decides to come out I would trade that pick to another team and instead go OT. Then go best OL available at the top of the second round. The rest of the draft can then be about the defense and adding WR talent. Suddenly Barkley is back to being an All Pro and the Giants can compete for the NFCE with an OL that can overwhelm people.

[lancerman]

For the Giants no. That doesn’t mean he’s not a good player. But picking Saquon was emblematic of the team refusing to acknowledge just how bad they were and what their QB situation. They needed a rebuild and they needed foundational pieces. They were much better off either going QB or trading the pick and getting two or three quality trench players. As it is they’ve accomplished nothing in Barkley’s first two years on a rookie contract and aren’t looking to be close to a playoff team by the time they have to pay him premium RB money which historically is a bad contract for a team. Also because of their lack of talent they’ve grinding him out there for virtually nothing