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BDL 2019 Semi-Final Round: #3 New Orleans Jazz @ #2 Cuba Smugglers


SirA1

New Orleans Jazz @ Cuba Smugglers  

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  1. 1. Who Wins?

    • New Orleans Jazz
    • Cuba Smugglers

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  • Poll closed on 12/19/2019 at 05:00 AM

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BDL 2019 Semi-Final Round

Match: New Orleans Jazz @ Cuba Smugglers

Away Owner: @WFLukic

Home Owner:  @MD4L

Vote for who you think will win this game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

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New Orleans Jazz

Offense:

QB: Josh Allen
RB: Ezekiel Elliott
WR1: Michael Thomas
WR2: D.J. Moore
WR3: Tyler Lockett
TE: Zach Ertz
LT: Andrew Whitworth
LG: Joel Bitonio
C: Travis Frederick
RG: Justin Pugh
RT: Mitchell Schwartz

RB2: Duke Johnson
RB3: Devin Singletary
WR4: Deebo Samuel
WR5: Parris Campbell
TE2: Mike Gesicki
TE3: Tyler Kroft
OL6: Riley Reiff
OL7: Connor McGovern

Defense:

DE: Nick Bosa
DT: Geno Atkins
DT: Calais Campbell
DE: Cameron Jordan
LB: Alexander Johnson
CB: Stephon Gilmore
CB: Chris Harris Jr.
CB: Kyle Fuller
DB: Micah Hyde
SS: Haha Clinton-Dix
FS: Darnell Savage

DE3: Josh Allen
DE4: Chase Winovich
DT3: Jeffery Simmons
DT4: Johnathan Hankins
LB2: Alec Ogletree
LB3: Mark Barron
CB4: JC Jackson
CB5: Tre Herndon

 

Cuba Smugglers
QB: DeShaun Watson
RB: Dalvin Cook
WR: Julio Jones
WR: Brandin Cooks
WR: Kenny Stills
TE: Ian Thomas
LT: Anthony Castonzo
LG: Elgton Jenkins
C: Ryan Jansen
RG: David DeCastro
RT: Justin Murray

RB: Jamaal Williams
RB: Darwin Thompson
FB: Patrick DiMarco
OW: Taysom Hill
WR: Ted Ginn Jr.
WR: Albert Wilson
TE: Josh Hill
OL: Laken Tomlinson

Edge: Arik Armstead
DT: Jurrell Casey 
DT: Fletcher Cox
Edge: Denico Autry
WLB: KJ Wright
MLB: Eric Kendricks 
RCB: Isaiah Oliver
NCB: Darqueze Dennard 
FS: Derwin James
SS: Tyrann Mathieu
LCB: Trae Waynes

Edge: Jerry Hughes 
DT: Jarran Reed
OLB: Kyle Van Noy
DE: Carl Nassib 
WLB: Sean Lee

SS Khari Willis
S: Will Harris
CB: Kevin Johnson

Edited by SirA1
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New Orleans Jazz

I’ll start off by saying it’s a privilege to be able to face off against Cuba in the playoffs against one of the best owners in the league. I have tremendous respect for the team you’ve built and wish you the best of luck for the match.

Offense:

Everyone and their dog knows what New Orleans is about offensively and that’s playing possession football, running the ball and controlling the clock. We’re not going to move away from that any time soon, however this week we plan to take a far more balanced approach to our offense, with an approximate 55:45 split of passing to running.

This adjustment in philosophy is largely to take advantage of a makeshift Cuba secondary, who as a result of injuries to Sherman and Moore will be forced to bring in backups. While Oliver and Dennard are questionable, we’re going to assume both are playing. However, if either/both are ruled out, expect us to pass around 60% of the time with more 4WR and/or empty backfield sets to take advantage of the CBs further down on Cuba’s depth chart. In this case, Samuel will come in and line up alongside Thomas, Moore and Lockett out wide and he’ll get a fair few targets, or whoever gets the bottom CB from Cuba.

Another reason for this shift towards the passing game is that Cuba’s secondary does not concern us in terms of generating turnovers. Cuba’s starting secondary in this match assuming Dennard and Waynes come in, will have only generated 4 interceptions on the season. While admittedly James, the best player in Cuba’s secondary, hasn’t played the full season, this is nonetheless a meagre total. This, along with Josh Allen’s recent improvements with ball security, we feel confident that we can be more adventurous in the passing game for big reward as well as minimal risk of turnovers.

In terms of our distribution to targets, if Cuba goes zone, we’re more than happy to sling it to whoever is in the softest spots. Given Allen’s arm strength and ability to throw just about any pass before a defender can close, it’ll just be a matter of zipping it with no hesitation, especially as Thomas, Ertz and Lockett should be able to find soft spots in the zone with ease.

If Cuba goes man, we predict they’ll double cover Michael Thomas (although in reality with the corners they’ve got they’ll need to double Moore and Lockett too). If they don’t, Allen has the green light to just go after him as often as possible since he isn’t being stopped 1v1. If he is doubled, we’re moving him into the slot and are going to shift Ertz out wide more often. If Cuba wishes to continue doubling Thomas in the slot, we’re also going to have the running back run more swing and wheel routes as the outside should open up and the linebackers are concerned with the middle of the field or Ertz. Also, quickly on Ertz – if he draws coverage from any safety or CB apart from James, he’ll then enter the category of immediate target until an adjustment is made.

If Cuba wishes to leave Lockett in single coverage, we’re happy to take a few deep shots as Havana’s wind isn’t Buffalo’s and we’re confident Allen’s deep ball woes won’t manifest in the same way the have in the past, while Moore will get a healthy number of targets running slants, crossers, outs and drag routes which we’ll use to take advantage of his ability to create separation in traffic and also turn up field and get yards after the catch.

We anticipate Cuba will bring a heavy box to help limit the running game. Cuba’s defensive line featured Armstead and Autry on the edge last week, two guys who are on the heavier side of things in terms of edges. Thus to counter that that we have two strategies:

1.     A substantial amount of play action passes and bootlegs which will get Allen rolling out and ideally into situations where he can either tuck it and run, or utilise the extra time to be able to scan the field and use the angles to rifle ball in to his receivers; and

2.     Particularly when Elliott is in the backfield, a number of screen passes to take advantage of Cuba trying to dial up blitzes. Given Allen’s susceptibility to the blitz and Cuba’s need to cover for their weakened secondary, we’re especially confident that the screen game will be effective in getting us splash plays.

In terms of the running game, aside from the occasional read option play and keeper for Allen where Cuba appears to be over-committing, it’ll your standard mix of inside and outside runs behind our offensive line with the majority going to Elliott and a few to Singletary to spell him. Johnson will largely serve as our 3rd down back and contribute in the passing game, either motioning to the LOS or a checkdown/screen option out of the backfield.

Defense:

After our last match against Cuba in which we foolishly opted to go with a zone look unfamiliar to us, we’re sticking with our usual man coverage approach, with a slight tweak. This is largely because the injury to DJ Chark will see either Ted Ginn or Kenny Stills come in, and should see Cuba lose a lot of a significant amount of contested catch ability in the middle of the field as Ginn and Stills operate primarily as deep threats.

As a result, we’re going with a 2-man under/cover 2 man defense. As in it’s name, it will be similar to a cover 2 with two deep safeties, however those below will play man.

http://cdn.insidethepylon.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NFLReview3ColtsPlay1Still2.jpg

Savage and Clinton-Dix will be the two deep safeties in this instance, with both generally starting the play around 15 yards from the LOS and reacting accordingly.

Underneath, the coverages will play out as follows:

Gilmore – Jones
Harris Jr. – Cooks
Fuller – Ginn/Stills
Johnson – Tight End
Hyde – Running back

Should Cuba go with 4 wide, Jackson will come in and take the 4th WR. Additionally, if Cuba go with 2 RBs in the backfield, Hyde will be tasked with Cook and Johnson with Williams or whoever.

Given Cuba will try to stretch the field with their deep threat WRs, we can see a plan of theirs being to utilise Cook and Williams in the passing game frequently given that space should open up. However, Johnson and Hyde will be aware of this and given their speed and ability to close down, should both be able to limit the damage from this.

While Julio Jones is obviously one of the best in the league, we’re comfortable leaving the best corner in the game in Gilmore on him in 1 v 1 coverage. We’re confident Gilmore will be able to slow him down and even if he isn’t completely limited, we know he won’t go off against us.

We expect Cuba may try and focus on the run given that our front can be on the lighter side at times, so to counter this we expect Hankins and Simmons to each play around 30-35% of the snaps, with this being our most common early down DL featuring 4 guys above 290lbs:

DE: Campbell
DT: Atkins
DT: Simmons
DE: Jordan

While on passing downs we’ll generally go with our listed base of:  

DE: Bosa
DT: Campbell
DT: Atkins
DE: Jordan

With Allen rotating in on occasion for either Atkins and Campbell, with Jordan sliding in to keep them fresh, or Allen coming in for Jordan himself.  

Tl;dr

- More of a focus on the passing game and in particular taking advantage of a depleted Cuba secondary.
- Use the screen game to counter Cuba’s blitz.
- Get Allen outside of the pocket and let him use his mobility to either make gains with his feet, or use the angles to hit strikes down field
- Force feed Michael Thomas until he’s doubled, then move him into the slot, Ertz to the outside and look for the softest matchup Cuba gives us and target that weapon.

- Man coverage underneath with 2 safeties up top to prevent Cuba hitting any deep balls.
- Rotate heavily on the DL to keep the pressure up and keep us strong against the run.
- Watch out for Cuba using it’s RBs underneath and in the screen game; have Hyde and Johnson ready to blow it up when it comes.

 

Cuba Smugglers

Pregame: We are close to earning our first Biz Bowl appearance. This is an amazing team that Lukic has constructed on all levels. He’s one of the premier BDL owners because of his ability to draft and find talent. We face a difficult matchup but we embrace the competition at the final level of the BDL playoffs. 

This is an explosive pass rush and Louisiana has as potent a secondary as any opponent. It’s with the utmost respect for what they do best that we will instead incorporate our running backs in the receiving game. Dalvin Cook on screens is definitely a staple of what we do today as it keeps the pass rush at ease instead of selling out to rush the passer. Jamaal Williams is another useful player that can get take advantage of a weaker front (against the rush) and it can help exploit the one hole New Orleans has on defense. When New Orleans does go in their run friendly fronts they aren’t as potent in the pass rush department meaning Watson can attempt a more traditional passing attack. New Orleans possess a much lighter starting front four then the average BDL team as Campbell and Atkins have been on teams that cannot stop the run due to the LB play. While Alexander Johnson takes this defense to a higher level of play he is usually the only LB by trade on the second level. Our passing game commands enough respect to force New Orleans to keep one safety back on a constant basis. By targeting the middle of the field, we can eventually take some deep shots while not sacrificing the short area game on a constant basis.

As we lost some talent last week, a big gift was the emergence of Ian Thomas. He served as more than a viable check down option and he can also get down the field. Watson has utilized his TEs more than past seasons and Thomas is another matchup that can A) bring safety help and open up deep targets, B) account for Alexander Johnson’s coverage meaning the Cook screens would leave Haha Clinton Dix and safeties to shed blockers. We recognize how potent a secondary our opponent posses and all these lesser targets play a major role in opening up opportunities for Julio Jones.

Last time we played New Orleans they did not use a man cover scheme as they’ve done most of the season. We expect Gilmore to shadow Julio this time and we won’t shy away from that matchup. In our opinion, Gilmore is the best man player in BDL so he’ll definitely lower the target share we normally give our star weapon. With about 3-4 drag, screen, jet sweeps targets we aim to use Julio will touch the ball regardless of coverage. When Watson targeted Gilmore in reality with a top receiver he was able to complete a couple passes and we expect the same result here. With at most ten targets we still feel Julio has a chance for 5-6 receptions and 60 yards which suffices considering the matchup. If Julio is doubled that’s better for us because deep targets for the other receivers become possible. Brandin Cooks hasn’t done much work statistically but he was on the field for over 75% of the snaps during Goff’s two best games in the past month. He’ll obviously occupy coverage and we’ll let him go deep often to occupy a man whether it’s Chris Harris or Kyle Fuller. We’d give the Harris matchup a few targets but we actually think Fuller can get beat deep once by Cooks or even forced into a penalty that moves the ball down field regardless. We’ve added some new guys that actually do things statistically with Albert Wilson and Ted Ginn getting some reps as the starters need breathers. Ginn is obviously another deep weapon and we think stacking him with Julio is a great way to expose a certain coverage and either target Julio on ten yard in routes or letting Ginn potentially one on one stretch the field. Even against the most predominant man cover team IRL, Watson had enough burners to get more zone coverage looks that made it easier to get his main weapon involved. Our big touch targets this week are Julio Jones , Dalvin Cook, and Jamaal Williams. We think a combination of our usual 11 personnel and the 21 formation with Cook-Williams sharing the backfield will make it easier to target the middle of the field. We can include Ian Thomas as well as New Orleans finally has to account for a concrete weapon beyond our usual receivers.

Defense

Josh Allen is a unique player. Whether you like or dislike him he’s got a real arsenal of weapons. We are good enough to play more two man under schemes as our CBs may need some help considering the opponent. We want to unleash Derwin James and give him more freedom than we did against Rome. He’ll come down in the box on a few occasions. If the game plan is more run focused we will adjust by moving him as a roamer and letting him get some blitzing opportunities. He’s sharp enough to handle Ezekiel Elliot and Josh Allen is a viable player in terms of his dual threat ability. As of now, we expect to see a legitimate passing effort and a more balanced approach. We want Eric Kendricks to cover Zach Ertz and we’ll shuffle that responsibility as we use more blitzes to stifle the passer and make it harder to achieve the desired target share New Orleans aims to distribute to its weapons. Lukic deserves plenty of credit for the distribution of wealth that is in Allen’s weaponry.

Regardless of the New Orleans offense approach we figure the play action game is a staple of their passing attack. Accounting for all the matchups figure to be a task we may in fact have issues with unless we give our CBs some help. Tyrann Mathieu will own more of the responsibility for help as the last line of defense. He’s versatile enough to move to NCB and will have half of his assignment playing that role. Darqueze Dennard gets the start if he plays and we think he’s shown enough in the slot to win some matchups regardless of assignment. We would certainly help against Michael Thomas and our one legit advantage is Allen has been prone to stagnant moments for extended periods against good defenses. With a strong defensive line in multiple regards it’ll be beneficial that we can control the LOS and make it hard for Zeke Elliot to get going on a consistent basis. Armstead on the edge nullifies the likelihood of stretch and counters to get Zeke going harder than usual. If we can get into our pass rush friendly alignments, Jerry Hughes and Kyle Van Noy against Andrew Whitworth is our best bet to generate an edge rush against Allen. The rest of this offensive line is one of the better in BDL, so if we’re able to hold up in the running game, we think we can force some third and longs which should result in some stops.

With Derwin James having a greater role at the LOS and us wanting to move Tyrann Mathieu to NCB this week, Khari Willis will have a big role. He’s going to be the last line of defense for most of his snaps. We are pretty versatile on the front and back end but having his role solidified and consistent is our best counteract to giving our CBs help vs Tyler Lockett and DJ Moore’s vertical presence.

 

Edited by SirA1
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1 minute ago, Counselor said:

It shouldn’t. There’s nothing in the rules about not doing that. I just give him a hard time because it’s literally any time someone makes a play on his team. 

Theres nothing in the rules that dictates what my vote actually has to be based on.

But my comment there was as snarky as him suggesting that I'm out to get him or something.

I voted based on who I believe has the better team.AND gameplan. That's it.

But nothing requires me to vote consistently.

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This game screams offensive shootout with the talent each team has on that side of the ball. But I think the Jazz hit the nail on the head: how is Cuba going to cover them? I wasn't a fan of Josh Allen when he came out of Wyoming and still don't think he's a stellar player, but he's been solid when I've had a chance to see him this year despite very poor IRL talent around him. Give him that group of skill players and a very good offensive line? Yeah, I think he can win BDL playoff games.

Deshaun conversely isn't playing with significantly better receiver talent, and there are a couple clear weak spots on the line that I think New Orleans can take advantage of. Cuba got a bad hand this week with injuries, and I think Lukic did a phenomenal job coaching this game. New Orleans in a close one.

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6 hours ago, PR said:

Cook's injury factors as it is a reinjury to the same shoulder.

I'd be happy for people to ignore it personally because I doubt he comes out if it's a playoff game, whereas Minnesota's game wasn't too important.

 

6 hours ago, wwhickok said:

Theres nothing in the rules that dictates what my vote actually has to be based on.

But my comment there was as snarky as him suggesting that I'm out to get him or something.

I voted based on who I believe has the better team.AND gameplan. That's it.

But nothing requires me to vote consistently.

It wasn't snarky, I have no problem with you voting against me and especially for a team as good as Cuba who is absolutely worthy of making the bizzbowl. I just knew it wouldn't be a surprise because you're the only person that's voted against me in 4 weeks haha, which again is fair enough. I guess Josh Allen is terrible after all, and will have to settle for clinching a playoff berth in primetime against the so called MVPs Watt and Fitzpatrick while Kyle "not terrible" Allen can watch the rest of the season from the bench after singlehandedly costing him team a playoff spot.

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50 minutes ago, Blue said:

and there are a couple clear weak spots on the line that I think New Orleans can take advantage of.

On a fair level of critiquing, Anthony Castonzo has been one of the best OTs this year, DeCastro is top ten at his position, and Jenkins is one of the better players for GB. I know people may not be big supporters of our RT, but this line is better than what Watson has IRL.

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15 minutes ago, WFLukic said:

I'd be happy for people to ignore it personally because I doubt he comes out if it's a playoff game, whereas Minnesota's game wasn't too important.

 

It wasn't snarky, I have no problem with you voting against me and especially for a team as good as Cuba who is absolutely worthy of making the bizzbowl. I just knew it wouldn't be a surprise because you're the only person that's voted against me in 4 weeks haha, which again is fair enough. I guess Josh Allen is terrible after all, and will have to settle for clinching a playoff berth in primetime against the so called MVPs Watt and Fitzpatrick while Kyle "not terrible" Allen can watch the rest of the season from the bench after singlehandedly costing him team a playoff spot.

To be fair while you’re correct our DBs haven’t caught INTs, it’s only right KJ Wright and Sean Lee combine for 3 INTs this week.

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Eric Kendricks is a sneaky DPOY candidate


Vikings edge rusher Danielle Hunter is getting all the ink this year because of the sack total, but I’m not sure he’s even the strongest candidate on his own defense. Linebacker Kendricks has been putting together a career year and has a sneaky strong case for defensive player of the year. Kendricks added to his already-absurd pass breakup tally against the Chargers, and though he doesn’t have the interceptions, he has been one of the best coverage linebackers in football this season. Kenricks has always been known as a quality coverage player, but this season he has had a significant jump in PFF grade and is putting together some rare numbers.

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