Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
StLunatic88

Lunatics First Mock Offseason

Recommended Posts

With that abysmal performance on Sunday, Ive started to turn my gaze toward the offseason. Man did last year spoil us.

Free Agency

We are likely losing a bunch of our guys, with tight cap space (our Top 5 contracts taking up close to 60% of cap this season) before we can start to get out of some of these deals theres just not much cash to go around. And on top of that, we are short on premium draft picks next year (on top of this year), and some of these guys can recoup us some much needed draft capital. But we will make sure to hang onto some of the key guys to keep us as playoff contenders.

Greg Zuerlein - K 

  • 4 years $19m ($3.5m - 2020 Cap Hit)

Not sure how much you all pay attention to Kickers around the league, but these days, if you've got a guy, you have to hang onto him. And with GZ we have a guy than can hit bombs as well. Sure we are getting up there with how much we are paying a Kicker (actually set the market for one with this deal) but you dont really appreciate what you've got till the new one is shanking easy kicks to miss games. This is just one of those "price of doing business" things, swallow it and lets enjoy the 60 yard bombs.

Andrew Whitworth - OL 

  • 2 years $17m ($7m - 2020 Cap Hit)

Many are already speculating that this is Whitworth's last season, but every time Ive seen it brought up to him, he doesnt seem like a guy ready to hang em up yet. He still looks good out there, even if hes a half step slower. And honestly keeping as much of this semi-functioning OL together is a top priority at this point, with the little usable Cap Space we have. But there's one difference, he's coming back as a Guard. They drafted Noteboom to be a LT, and he looks better suited outside than pinned inside. But Whitworth is versatile enough to slide inside and still have a major impact, plus he can still help Noteboom at LT, and also whoever our young Center is.

Austin Blythe- OL 

  • 3 years $10m ($2m - 2020 Cap Hit)

This is the one Im least sure about, but Blythe has been improved enough since the shuffle to take a shot on. Especially with our shaky Line situation. I dont really think that he is a long term solution, as Im said, Im not completely sold on this myself, but we need to piece this thing together for a bit, and the more competent bodes we can throw at it, the better chance we will have. So with only $2m being paid in year one, with a low signing bonus ($3m) we can be out of his deal after this first year for only about $4m spread over 2 Salary Caps. This is a much more real life football business move than a wish list offseason move. 

 

Jalen Ramsey - CB [Extension]

  • 4 years $71m ($4m - 2020 Cap Hit Increase)

I know Ramsey says that he wont hold out after we traded for him, but do you really believe that? I sure dont. If we dont pay him its going to be a mess, and the trade of Peters, and clearing his cap space to roll over, points directly to us giving Jalen his deal. This one would make him the Highest Paid CB on AAV basis. It would also give him a bit of a raise for 2020 ontop of his 5th year option, and get him back on the market before he is 30. It only ties us to what could easily become a malcontent for less than a handful of years, and gets us his prime playing years. We will likely have to also up the guaranteed money with a shorter deal, but thats the gamble we have to take.

 

As I mentioned earlier, we are going to try and ride out the Compensatory game one more year. With Fowler, Brockers, Littleton and Bortles moving on for variously sized deals, (Brockers will csh in one last time, Littleton will get overpaid because the LB bubble hasnt burst yet, and Blake will be looking for a chance to play) we could be looking at 3, potentially 4 Comp picks. Depends on how many Franchise Tags and guys who resign with their teams, which might push some of these guys contracts higher than they should be.

But in order to collect those picks, we will be passing on any "big name" free agents, not that we really had the money for any of them as it is. But there does look to be some very useful guys who will likely be cut from some teams just as cash strapped or more so than we are. So while these wont blow anyone away, they should all help sure up some spots to to push us back into Super Bowl contention.

 

Ty Nsehke - OL

  • 2 years $9m ($3.5m - 2020 Cap Hit)

Ty is just a solid lineman up and down, serviceable at just about every spot, and can assimilate to just about any system. Had he been a free agent just a couple of seasons sooner, he may have made the big bucks after filling in admirably for Trent Williams in DC. He got a decent deal to go up to Buffalo, but it was one of those 1 year deals disguised as a 2 year. He has still been solid for them, but a team trying to make a jump in the AFC East, they can improve upon him, while also using the $4m in Cap space they would save with this move. Much like we would be giving him here. At worst he would be the ultimate utility lineman, covering 4 of the 5 spots if someone catches the injury bug, but I think he could easily slide in on the right side at Guard or Tackle (Id project him at Guard), and let some of the incumbents fight it out in an open competition. He likely wont see year 2 of this deal, but he would be a good plug in to bridge till we find cheap young talent.

Allen Bailey - DL 

  • 2 years $8m ($4m - 2020 Cap Hit)

You might be surprised to hear that the Atlanta Front line has actually been decent this year, but they have been. Now I wouldnt ever say this was all due to Bailey, but he has been a pretty reliable guy. And what we need around Donald as we lose talent (like Brockers) is atleast reliable talent. Bailey should be able to handle the heavy rotational duties as we try to find some more talented guys to surround AD, but in the mean time we need more than SJD and Smart. Unlike Ty, Bailey could see both years of this deal, but we could also easily cut ties after this year. As cash strapped as the falcons are, its almost a no brainer that they save the $4.5m here as they rebuild on the fly.

Jake Ryan - LB 

  • 1 year $1.5m ($1.5m - 2020 Cap Hit)

Like I said, we are shopping in the Bargin Bin. Ryan has some decent years in Green Bay, but that knee was still recovering all year, and now after a few games is back on the IR with another injury. Probably induced by trying to come back too soon, another offseason of Rehab and he should be atleast a contributor on the field. Now there is no way the Jags dont save themselves the $6m here, and 2 back to back missed seasons dont make for much leverage on the open market. He's worth the cheap lottery ticket to throw in the middle of the Defense as we are working on replacing Littleton, as well as finding the other guy on the inside of the Defense.

Tyson Alualu - DL 

  • 1 year $1m ($1m - 2020 Cap Hit)

Really just building up the depth along the defense with these signings. Sure I would love to get a Dontari Poe or Marcell Dareus, or Cam Heyward assuming they get cut, but we just wont likely have the money to do so unless we restructure a few guys that we really dont want to tie ourselves to long term. We tried that route, so this way we are getting a few more guys, who will always give the effort in order to be on a winning team with a shot at the Super Bowl. Alualu has always been a disappointment from his draft position, but now on the cheap, he would be a nice 5th/6th rotation guy. he has done solid while replacing injured guys in Pittsburgh this year, but with bigger fish to fry and better young talent on the roster, they save the $3m.

 

NFL Draft

Im still in the preliminary evaluations for the draft, but this is are guys who have caught my eye this CFB season, who could mostly be immediate contributors. Without having a 1st, having traded away some mid round assets already, and losing some of the Comp Picks we thought we might be getting, each one of these selections is crucial this year

Round 2

  • Jon Greenard - EDGE - Florida

Greenard is a flat out stud, and fortunately for us, not enough people know it. What it comes down to is that he doesnt have the "Elite Athletic Tools" that so many fsll in love with and take the chance on in the first round. But Greenard has everything we need in an Edge defender, and I still think he will slip into the mid-second because he isnt "flashy". He was very impressive against Andrew Thomas, making him look silly at times with his great get off. When it translates to the NFL, he probably wont be competing every year for the Sack Title,  but he could be alot like Chris Long, with those impressive hidden numbers, who is always leading in pressures, collapsing the pocket for Donald and the rest to cleanup. Feels like a guy who we could pencil in as a starter for 7-8 years.

Round 3

  • Bryan Edwards - WR - South Carolina

Edwards posesses all the skills to make him a great complimentary Receiver in just about any scheme. His size and frame are nice, although he doesnt use them to his advantage often enough, If he could learn to do that, he may be a #1 option in the NFL. But for now, he is a very smooth athlete, especially impressive at his size, who has very reliable hands and runs his routes very well. And all the production he has put up, hes done without a very reliable QB to get him the ball. One of my favorite things about him is his willingness and effectiveness as a blocker. Just wish he would use that size and strength to dominate smaller Corners while running routes. With Robert Woods contract growing, and soon coming to an end, its time to look for a legitimate replacement.

Round 4

  • Evan Weaver - LB - Cal

Weaver is a stud at the LoS, an absolute elite run stopper, and I believe can cause havoc in the backfield. Were the NFL is going with Athletic QBs, he could be the ultimate Spy. Unfortunately he leaves just about everything to be desired in coverage. That is where his draft stock takes a big hit. I think we are in a good spot to we his tools, with how we use our ILB and our Safeties, although losing Littleton my complicate things. But we just let 2 RBs rack up over 100 yards this weekend, so that is the bigger issue to me at this point, more than can he cover some of the more thletic TEs in the league.

  • Leki Fotu - DL - Utah

The Length, Strength, and Motor you are looking for in a big clogger up front, but is relay just a raw ball of potential right now. He thinks hes a *** rusher, but in reality he would be better off being a run stuffer most downs, and be a sneaky pass rusher on a situational basis. Most of what needs to be fixed is technical, and correctable, and starting in a rotation on this line would give him the time to do that. 

Round 6

  • John Molchon - OL - Boise St

Molchon is just solid to me, which on its own wont get you drafted very high anymore, as teams are looking for the super freaks to make their lineman. But the versatility he shows to play all over the Line is a very valuable asset, and he has handled most guys thrown at him, but thats where the question of level of competition comes in. That Boise line didnt look great against FSU, even though they came back and won. But at this point (as you can tell) I would just throw as many reasonably affordable options at the issue until we can figure it out.

Round 7

  • Shea Patterson - QB - Michigan

I have never fancied myself a QB scout, but when I watch Shea, he makes a couple throws a game, into windows that shouldnt be there, that just make me go "wow". Sure theres also plenty of other times he makes me go "WTF", but there are skills and traits that intrigue me. And Im always a proponent of drafting a QB at some point every year unless you have a very good backup, and as of right now, we definitely dont. 

Edited by StLunatic88

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think I would prefer moving on from Greg. He was elite in 2017 but his play has dipped since then and he struggles to stay healthy. Right now he only seems like an average kicker and I think that is an easy area to save money. Unless we are expecting him to come back to around 2017 production then I don't think he is worth it.

I think Blythe will be more expensive then that. Jamon Brown's deal was 3 years for 19M. I think that is probably the floor for what Blythe will make. Not that he necessarily deserves it but OL always seem to get overpaid.

Really like the draft. Would prefer to draft OL higher but the first 3 picks are 3 of my favorite guys in the draft.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting mock. I think I'd let Blythe walk. I'm not sold Whitworth returns. But I'd take him back if he does. He might need to slide inside, though. I'd love to get Nsekhe, but I'm not sure why the Bills would cut him. On the draft, I'm torn on Greenard. He's great when I watch the Gators, but when I evaluated him individually, he wasn't as good. Curtis Weaver is the guy who has really stood out to me. I love Bryan Edwards. I think he's Allen Robinson. We also will have a 3rd, instead of a 4th, from our comp pick. That's where I see Fotu going (the third round). I'm a fan. He's raw, but he's toolsy and an ox. I'm also a big fan of Evan Weaver. I saw somebody compare him to James Laurinaitis, and I agree. Phenomenal instincts, great tackler, good in zone, but some athletic and M2M limitations.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  



×