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GDT Game 15: Here come the Lions

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16 hours ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

Asked my mom to bake crow instead of turkey this holiday because I deserve some based on how Lock has looked so far. 

 

Well I had no reservations with taking Lock with the first pick (not trading back) figuring qb's are hard to get and if you really like a guy and are sold on him take him.  Wow did Elway strike gold on what unfolded.  He does do somethings right every now and then.   However, if you remember last year I ripped on Lamar saying he would amount to nothing.  My son loved Lamar and wanted us to draft him.  He told me after hearing my thoughts that if he made it I would have to get his jersey.  If he amounted to nothing he would buy me a jersey of my choosing.   Well after game two or three I bought one and do wear it.  As previously mentioned I always liked the Ravens but was down on them forever after they beat us in their super bowl run.

My point is BF2010 buy a Lock jersey, it's better than eating crow (lol)  - I know I will be adding it to my Bronco stable very soon!!   

 

 

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As for Miller’s pressure statistics, I would love to see his current ones.  The last time I’ve seen these stats updated were from PFF on 11/5 and Von was abysmal.  PFF didn’t even have him as a top 25 pass rusher and PFF bases this almost exclusively off pressures.  On 11/17  Klis had an article that reported Miller at 19 pressures on the year (pressures are the combined number of sacks, knock downs, and hurries).  19 pressures across half a season for a supposedly elite pass rusher is beyond terrible.  Miller had 64 total pressures last season (and even that is a bit below what you’d expect from Von and was a drop from previous years), so his pace of about 40 in mid November is a SEVERE drop off.

Now a player can rack up pressures in a hurry.  It isn’t unheard of for a player to add 20-30 pressures over a 3 game span, so Miller at this point could have 50+ pressures with a game left.  

Further PFF has never graded Von Miller below a 90 in his entire career.  They currently have him graded at a 76 with 1 game remaining.

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Oh hey, Football Outsiders (one of the "analytic websites") has Von Miller as #4 in the league in total pressures with 54, behind only Cameron Jordan, Danielle Hunter and Za'Darius Smith. Ahead of Khalil Mack, Nick Bosa and Shaq Barrett. Is PFF the only analytic website we should trust, even though you said "all the analytic websites"? 

Thing is, if you hadn't framed your argument in such a hyperbolic fashion, you wouldn't be scrambling to defend it pages later. It was a bad take.

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I also love how "Von was abysmal" = not a top 25 pass rusher. And you're really going to argue that you're not grading him on a curve? 

And you do realize that a 76.6 PPF grade on their scale does qualify as "good football", right? It's a 1-100 scale with 50 being replacement level play. I should have noted in the above post that there's an obvious discrepancy between how PFF and FO record pressures with FO having a much higher standard. I really don't know how to account for the difference. I also don't have PFF premium anymore but did find a tweet from November 20th citing PFF stats that had Von at 50 total pressures through 10 games. I'll bet you anything that "19" number you're citing was sacks + hits, and not including hurries. Mike Klis not having a clue how to interpret information he's fed is very on brand for him. What I don't get is how someone who has watched all these games and knows football as well as you sees "19 pressures through 10 games" and doesn't immediately think that can't be right. 

 Again, I told you the better way to make this case was to say he was underperforming (slight drop off is a fair assessment), but you continually insisted that he just wasn't playing well at all. 

Edited by BroncoBruin

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FWIW, this detail, if true, adds a TON of new context to the James injury:

FWIW, that "buckling" that James described - it's classic with meniscus tears.   And even if it's just a partial one - usually needs a repair, the severity of which is determined by getting the knee scoped.  In the last 3 years, notable players who had the tear include:

AP

Joe Mixon

Michael Gallup

Lavonte David

Derrius Guice

Kelvin Benjamin

Charles Clay

Jaylen Samuels

(and those are just "name" guys at the time, who made headlines, doesn't include lesser-known players - but same results, this injury is well-documented in what usually happens)

And to be clear - in every case - they all needed arthroscopic surgery, and they got the minor/major repair.   It's curious DEN didn't just bite the bullet here - the odds of non-surgical recovery are incredibly small for a football player, given the stress that gets put on the knee.    Now that we are going to the offseason, James might get the full repair done (which calls for 8-10 weeks recovery time, and why players often opt for the smaller procedure) - less likely he gets a simple trim - as that has an almost complete association with bad arthritis 5-10 years later (done when you need to get a guy on the field ASAP, but you pay the price in a huge way usually after football is done).

Either way, for those that questioned James' character here - if an offseason arthroscopic surgery is announced, James should get a pass.   He returned in the timeline for typical grade 2 MCL injuries - and re-injuring the MCL can happen; but the meniscus tear completely explains the difficulty in recovering, and need for IR. 

Frankly, the decision to not scope him after the IND game is a really curious one - given he re-injured the MCL, doing a scope wasn't going to delay his recovery regardless if the scope showed the meniscus was intact enough to leave alone when they looked in - but if it was torn enough (and again, almost every tear requires repair, given the load the knee takes and the stress on the meniscus, it only gets worse), then it could have either had the 2-4 week shorter return with the trim, or at least started off-season rehab and strength/conditioning if it was the full repair required, he'd be almost ready to start off-season activities now.   Really, really, really curious decision by the staff here.

Edited by Broncofan

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The interesting thing in regard to the James injuries is how not on the same page the team and player are. No teammates have defended him. The organization hasn’t defended him (and it would be SO easy and prudent for them to do so with their high investment OT) Vic has taken what I’ve interpreted as subtle shots in pressers for weeks. That they haven’t put him on IR feels like a message being sent: you’re not hurt so why would we put you on IR? We’ll make you come to the facility every day to tell everyone you can’t play.

This thing feels ugly. Why would the Broncos put themselves in a position to look so bad here?

Edited by BroncoBruin

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24 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

The interesting thing in regard to the James injuries is how not on the same page the team and player are. No teammates have defended him. The organization hasn’t defended him (and it would be SO easy and prudent for them to do so with their high investment OT) Vic has taken what I’ve interpreted as subtle shots in pressers for weeks. That they haven’t put him on IR feels like a message being sent: you’re not hurt so why would we put you on IR? We’ll make you come to the facility every day to tell everyone you can’t play.

This thing feels ugly. Why would the Broncos put themselves in a position to look so bad here?

Honestly, it could be simply that the initial diagnosis was a MCL re-injury, and the meniscus tear was missed at that time.   I have to say, if the staff knew he had a meniscal tear after the IND game, literally EVERY player gets a diagnostic scope - and I haven't heard of a single player who didn't get either the minor repair (trim) or major full repair done.    The fact that the meniscus was NOT mentioned then, he didn't get a scope, and it only gets mentioned now, I'd be leaning towards the fact the second opinion James alluded to revealed the meniscus injury - and not at the time of the IND game re-injury.

FWIW, this wouldn't be the first time that a team looked really bad with an injured player with a missed injury, coaching staff and teammates included.   I mean, the Jets and Kechemi Osemele is the obvious one (that's more on the FO/coaches than players) - but the more contextually relevant example was Delvin Breaux & NO - whose staff missed that he had a hairline fracture.   The coaches portrayed him like he was dogging it, players were silent, and the Saints were actually looking to try and trade him... and then several weeks later - OOPS.  

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2017/08/16/saints-coach-breaux-needs-surgery-club-changing-doctors/104661978/

As for teammates - man, we see it in a lot of locker rooms.  The warrior mentality to play with pain, and especially if the diagnosis was missed - then it's pretty easy to see how that would snowball, especially with an old-school HC like Fangio sending the message with James.   

I'll say it again - if James has a meniscus tear confirmed, and he needs an offseason repair done - then DEN dropped the ball here, and pretty much every criticism thrown James' way since the IND game should be retracted.   I will repeat - every player who's had a meniscus tear has needed a scope.   James' description of buckling fits a meniscus tear to a T - and frankly, should have triggered alarms to arrange a scope.   We should wait to hear in the offseason if James gets a scope and repair - but if he does, he absolutely gets a pass for this.   The DEN medical staff, on the other hand.....

Edited by Broncofan

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1 hour ago, BroncoBruin said:

Oh hey, Football Outsiders (one of the "analytic websites") has Von Miller as #4 in the league in total pressures with 54, behind only Cameron Jordan, Danielle Hunter and Za'Darius Smith. Ahead of Khalil Mack, Nick Bosa and Shaq Barrett. Is PFF the only analytic website we should trust, even though you said "all the analytic websites"? 

Thing is, if you hadn't framed your argument in such a hyperbolic fashion, you wouldn't be scrambling to defend it pages later. It was a bad take.

I was just providing the information for how I was basing my opinion and even stated seeing recent numbers would be interesting.  I don’t have an issue being proven wrong. 

 

1 hour ago, BroncoBruin said:

I also love how "Von was abysmal" = not a top 25 pass rusher. And you're really going to argue that you're not grading him on a curve? 

And you do realize that a 76.6 PPF grade on their scale does qualify as "good football", right? It's a 1-100 scale with 50 being replacement level play. I should have noted in the above post that there's an obvious discrepancy between how PFF and FO record pressures with FO having a much higher standard. I really don't know how to account for the difference. I also don't have PFF premium anymore but did find a tweet from November 20th citing PFF stats that had Von at 50 total pressures through 10 games. I'll bet you anything that "19" number you're citing was sacks + hits, and not including hurries. Mike Klis not having a clue how to interpret information he's fed is very on brand for him. What I don't get is how someone who has watched all these games and knows football as well as you sees "19 pressures through 10 games" and doesn't immediately think that can't be right. 

 Again, I told you the better way to make this case was to say he was underperforming (slight drop off is a fair assessment), but you continually insisted that he just wasn't playing well at all. 

Oh I am grading him on a curve. There is no doubt about that.  He isn’t elite this year and he’s paid to be elite.  

Clearly there is some differences of opinion from these analytic sites or at least in how they grade, which is fine.  From watching Denver this year, he’s looked like a shell of himself and PFF certainly sees it as well and IMO going from 8 years of grading out 90+ to all of a sudden 76 is more than a slight drop off. It’s like going from Aaron Donald to Shelby Harris, that’s more than a slight decline.

Von Miller hasn’t been trash this year, you’re right, but from what we’ve witnessed him do for the past 8 years to his play this season he isn’t even close to that level and really hasn’t even flashed those capabilities this season and it’s frustrating.  

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Just now, germ-x said:

I was just providing the information for how I was basing my opinion and even stated seeing recent numbers would be interesting.  I don’t have an issue being proven wrong. 

 

Oh I am grading him on a curve. There is no doubt about that.  He isn’t elite this year and he’s paid to be elite.  

Clearly there is some differences of opinion from these analytic sites or at least in how they grade, which is fine.  From watching Denver this year, he’s looked like a shell of himself and PFF certainly sees it as well and IMO going from 8 years of grading out 90+ to all of a sudden 76 is more than a slight drop off. It’s like going from Aaron Donald to Shelby Harris, that’s more than a slight decline.

Von Miller hasn’t been trash this year, you’re right, but from what we’ve witnessed him do for the past 8 years to his play this season he isn’t even close to that level and really hasn’t even flashed those capabilities this season and it’s frustrating.  

...so you gave me crap for suggesting that you weren't judging him purely based on what he's doing on the field, then admit that you aren't? *shrugs*

I really don't put stock in PFF grades. That's the lowest denominator of football analysis in my opinion. Don't get me wrong, their stats are valuable but their grades yield laughable results every year. On the other hand, their stats say he was producing 5 pressures per game through November 20th (again, not even close to the 1.9 pressures per game you cited in your earlier post), which I believe is a higher rate than last year. He's playing more disciplined football which makes sense in a transition from an attacking-style defense to a more read-and-react style, and has done a good job setting the edge in the run game. You didn't seem to question a stat that was off by a whole 3 pressures per game,  just casual viewing of Von in every game and you would have called BS on that. You said Von didn't make an impact in the Lions game until it was "closing time", and George pointed out a series in the first half where he almost single-handedly kills the drive. You have a good eye for the game, but you're waaaaaay off on this one. 

 

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2 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

...so you gave me crap for suggesting that you weren't judging him purely based on what he's doing on the field, then admit that you aren't? *shrugs*

I really don't put stock in PFF grades. That's the lowest denominator of football analysis in my opinion. Don't get me wrong, their stats are valuable but their grades yield laughable results every year. On the other hand, their stats say he was producing 5 pressures per game through November 20th (again, not even close to the 1.9 pressures per game you cited in your earlier post), which I believe is a higher rate than last year. He's playing more disciplined football which makes sense in a transition from an attacking-style defense to a more read-and-react style, and has done a good job setting the edge in the run game. You didn't seem to question a stat that was off by a whole 3 pressures per game,  just casual viewing of Von in every game and you would have called BS on that. You said Von didn't make an impact in the Lions game until it was "closing time", and George pointed out a series in the first half where he almost single-handedly kills the drive. You have a good eye for the game, but you're waaaaaay off on this one. 

 

You’re probably right. 

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3 minutes ago, germ-x said:

You’re probably right. 

Hope there's no hard feelings, I can be an ******* sometimes lol. 

I do think this is an interesting case study in what it looks like from a fan perspective when the peak performance of a player ends. Our expectations largely shape how we evaluate players, so when it becomes clear it's never going to be 100% Von anymore, I think it's natural to overreact. I think the same is true of CHJ, though I picked up an interesting tidbit from PFF guys recently: they said no corner since Revis in 2009 has spent more time in pure 1-on-1 coverage against #1 receivers.

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FWIW, PFF & FO differ in 2 major ways:

-PFF's fundamental premise is that they have someone look at a play, and evaluate a player based on a 1-on-1 matchup.  My biggest gripe with them is that the evaluator makes it a hit/miss, but treats the competition as the same for each play, and doesn't account for game context / script, etc.  And sometimes, frankly, the guy's evaluation is wrong (yes, they will have a reviewer look at it if ppl make a fuss about a certain player for a certain game, but that's still a method prone to bias).

-FO uses the play data, but factors in the game situation, opposition, even weather (LOL).   It also factors in things like getting double-teamed.  My biggest gripe with FO is that they dismiss the eye test completely - but I like the analysis for being way more contextual in the opposition, and game script - for example, giving up a 8 yard pass is way different on 3rd and 8 than say 3rd and 12...and giving up first downs in exchange for clock when you are up 17 pts in the 4Q is way different than in the 1H, or in a tight game.

I will always prefer DVOA, but we should recognize why they'll be different.   PFF was the first to introduce more metric-based play - but ironically, it's methodology is probably the most prone to subjectivity in its analysis than any other metric-based system.    No doubt in 10+ years, we'll probably look at these metrics and wonder how we even learned to walk in terms of doing good metrics analysis.   It's also just part of the equation - the eye test matters - but even here, unless you are looking at the All-22 or breaking down film to see the entire play (with or without All-22), it's easy to see why eye-test alone fails.  The most successful orgs use both and use them fearlessly in any context - part of BAL' s success is embracing win probability, so they do things like go for 4th and 1, even on their side of the field.   

I'm glad to see DEN has incorporated metrics into their draft analysis the last 2 drafts; IMO it's no coincidence we're better in Day 1-2 as a result.   I hope we incorporate the win probability approach on gameday as well.   Getting sidetracked while I wrap presents, so.......

Edited by Broncofan

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2 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

Hope there's no hard feelings, I can be an ******* sometimes lol. 

I do think this is an interesting case study in what it looks like from a fan perspective when the peak performance of a player ends. Our expectations largely shape how we evaluate players, so when it becomes clear it's never going to be 100% Von anymore, I think it's natural to overreact. I think the same is true of CHJ, though I picked up an interesting tidbit from PFF guys recently: they said no corner since Revis in 2009 has spent more time in pure 1-on-1 coverage against #1 receivers.

Haha that stuff doesn’t bother me.  Yeah Vons just not Von in my eyes this season, also have a sour taste in my mouth from seeing how lazy he was at training camp.  Crazy part is he’s a hall of famer who I honestly think could’ve been even more dominant.  

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11 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Haha that stuff doesn’t bother me.  Yeah Vons just not Von in my eyes this season, also have a sour taste in my mouth from seeing how lazy he was at training camp.  Crazy part is he’s a hall of famer who I honestly think could’ve been even more dominant.  

Von's always had the switch. When it's on, I've never seen a more dominant edge rusher. But it's not always on. I wonder if that hasn't been a good thing at times, because he looked like he was shot out of a cannon damn near every play in that 2015 playoff run. We don't win that SB without Von and DeMarcus both at peak performance. 

It was just a couple years ago at camp he was running in on kickoff drills and beating everyone down the field to set an example for the young guys. But he's 30, settled down with a fiancee and they've lost a lot since. It's probably not quite the same fire. But I still view him as an impact player, and with a better offense + Chubb back I think he'll be in line for another double digit sack season. 

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Also, I jumped on Bolles for the holding call on Sunday. After that? Played basically a perfect game.

I don't think we can keep brushing this off. @AKRNA has been on this for a couple weeks now. Garett is playing very good football. 

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