Joe Burrow... Best QB Prospect since _______

[SmittyBacall]

59 minutes ago, HoboRocket said:

and while Darnold had better escapability as a prospect,

Good post, but this really stuck out for me. I feel the opposite. Burrow is far superior in my opinion.

[HoboRocket]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

Good post, but this really stuck out for me. I feel the opposite. Burrow is far superior in my opinion.

Thanks! From watching Darnold play in college, though, he was SO good at avoiding the rush. He tried to force plays and was reckless with the football, but the pressure didn't give him issues the way it has in the pros. If you watch college highlight reels of Darnold, you won't see much, if any, rushing yardage, but you WILL see plenty of broken sacks, movement within and without the pocket, and the ability to buy time until he makes a play.

Here's an example. It's a six-minute highlight reel from Darnold's freshman year of college, and you'll see him move around quite a bit and do a fsntastic job of either avoiding or breaking sacks.

Though, you may be right. Burrow may be better at avoiding sacks. But he doesn't look any better than maybe just a bit above average in that regard to me, though he IS a smart runner, and unlike prospect Darnold, will take the yards the defense gives him on the ground if there's no play to be made.

Still. I've only seen like five LSU games this season (though I did watch a few last year, and I WAS impressed by Burrow then, especially in the game against Auburn), so he may be capable of some great escapability.

[Kirill]

Kyler.

[BleedTheClock]

3 hours ago, ClutchDJ said:

Ja’Marr Chase is arguably better than those Bama WRs sans maybe Jeudy. Justin Jefferson is a Day 2 prospect & Terrace Marshall ain’t nothing to sneeze at either.

Disagree. The LSU WRs are good, but nowhere near Bama’s 4. 

[sparky151]

22 hours ago, NYGiantsman10 said:

 

Cincy fans, how has Billy Price been? 

Not good. We took Price and passed on Lamar Jackson. Then Price was handed the starting center job and has lost it to Trey Hopkins. We already had Hopkins on the roster as a backup center and guard. 

[INbengalfan]

On 12/19/2019 at 6:04 PM, NYGiantsman10 said:

The more I watch Joe Burrow the more I like him. I think Chad Pennington with a higher ceiling is a good comparison. Also random but I thought his Heisman speech was wonderful. His speech led to over $150k in donations to southeast Ohio food banks. 

I hope Cincy takes him and then drafts the best rated offensive lineman at 33. I really want to see Joe succeed. 

Cincy fans, how has Billy Price been? 

Injured and inconsistent are the two words that immediately come to mind.

[ckoz24]

My opinion is a bit risk-adverse on buy-high QBs in the draft and if you’re in the top 5 chances are you have other gaps in your system. 
 

I don’t have the stats on this, but I also think the variability of landing a starting QB doesn’t differ much from high first round to late first round either. 
 

For every Luck, there’s an equal chance of getting a Mariota... as much as for every Weeden there’s a Jackson or Bridgewater (go back to his days with the Vikings and his play as a back-up). Even looking at the star QBs in the league was any of them a top 10 pick?

[tannenballs]

8 hours ago, ckoz24 said:

My opinion is a bit risk-adverse on buy-high QBs in the draft and if you’re in the top 5 chances are you have other gaps in your system. 
 

I don’t have the stats on this, but I also think the variability of landing a starting QB doesn’t differ much from high first round to late first round either. 
 

For every Luck, there’s an equal chance of getting a Mariota... as much as for every Weeden there’s a Jackson or Bridgewater (go back to his days with the Vikings and his play as a back-up). Even looking at the star QBs in the league was any of them a top 10 pick?

Patrick Mahomes

Carson Wentz

Andrew Luck

Cam Newton 

Matthew Stafford

Matt Ryan

Phillip Rivers

 

[tannenballs]

Just now, tannenballs said:

Patrick Mahomes

Carson Wentz

Andrew Luck

Cam Newton 

Matthew Stafford

Matt Ryan

Phillip Rivers

 

Watson #12

Big Ben #11

 

[ckoz24]

7 minutes ago, tannenballs said:

Watson #12

Big Ben #11

 

This kinda explains my point that a top 5 QB is comparable to a mid-first QB and even a late first.

Take into account, that outside of Phillip Rivers and Matt Ryan, no other QB before 2015 is currently the starting QB for a team that was selected with a top 10. Even if you add Newton and Luck into that equation of top 10 QBs (Big Ben was 11 and Watson was drafted after 2015) that still only equates to 12.5% of all QBs.

 

The other side of this argument is 34.3% of starting QBs were drafted after 2015 and with a top 10. Which further might explain the point that starting QBs can turnover until the team gets it right.

[Danger]

10 hours ago, ckoz24 said:

This kinda explains my point that a top 5 QB is comparable to a mid-first QB and even a late first.

Take into account, that outside of Phillip Rivers and Matt Ryan, no other QB before 2015 is currently the starting QB for a team that was selected with a top 10. Even if you add Newton and Luck into that equation of top 10 QBs (Big Ben was 11 and Watson was drafted after 2015) that still only equates to 12.5% of all QBs.

 

The other side of this argument is 34.3% of starting QBs were drafted after 2015 and with a top 10. Which further might explain the point that starting QBs can turnover until the team gets it right.

Lets go back to 2010 (The last 10 draft classes and look at who was drafted where in the first round.

2010
1. Sam Bradford [Underwhelming]
25. Tim Tebow [Bust]

2011
1. Cam Newton (Good, but not great) [Good]
8. Jake Locker [Bust]
10. Blaine Gabbert [Bust]
12. Christian Ponder [Bust]

2012
1. Andre Luck [Great]
2. RGIII [Bust]
8. Ryan Tannehill [Underwhelming?]
22. Brandon Weeden [Bust]

2013
16. EJ Manuel [Bust]

2014
3. Blake Bortles [Bust]
22. Johnny Manziel [BUST]
32. Teddy Bridgewater [Bust?]

2015
1. Jameis Winston [Bust]
2. Marcus Mariota [Bust]

2016
1. Jared Goff [...Unclear]
2. Carson Wentz [Good]
26. Paxton Lynch [Bust]

2017
2. Mitchell Trubisky [Bust]
10. Patrick Mahomes [Great]
12. DeShaun Watson [Good]

2018-2019 (honestly too early to tell)

There's been no pick outside of the top 12 worth making in the first round for a QB. There've only been 2 QBs selected in the last 20 years after the top 12 that have been good. Joe Flacco (2008) and Aaron Rodgers (2005)
  

[ckoz24]

4 hours ago, Danger said:

Lets go back to 2010 (The last 10 draft classes and look at who was drafted where in the first round.

2010
1. Sam Bradford [Underwhelming]
25. Tim Tebow [Bust]

2011
1. Cam Newton (Good, but not great) [Good]
8. Jake Locker [Bust]
10. Blaine Gabbert [Bust]
12. Christian Ponder [Bust]

2012
1. Andre Luck [Great]
2. RGIII [Bust]
8. Ryan Tannehill [Underwhelming?]
22. Brandon Weeden [Bust]

2013
16. EJ Manuel [Bust]

2014
3. Blake Bortles [Bust]
22. Johnny Manziel [BUST]
32. Teddy Bridgewater [Bust?]

2015
1. Jameis Winston [Bust]
2. Marcus Mariota [Bust]

2016
1. Jared Goff [...Unclear]
2. Carson Wentz [Good]
26. Paxton Lynch [Bust]

2017
2. Mitchell Trubisky [Bust]
10. Patrick Mahomes [Great]
12. DeShaun Watson [Good]

2018-2019 (honestly too early to tell)

There's been no pick outside of the top 12 worth making in the first round for a QB. There've only been 2 QBs selected in the last 20 years after the top 12 that have been good. Joe Flacco (2008) and Aaron Rodgers (2005)
  

I think this illustrates the point tbh. Although we have to be cognizant of limited data and the definition of bust, underwhelming, good and great are. 

- a top 10 pick has a 66% chance of busing with an 8.3% chance at being great (12 selections)

- a 10 - 20 pick has a 60% chance of busting with a 20% chance of being great (5 selections, personally I think the margins are equal to above)

- a 20 - 32 pick has 100% chance of busting and no chance at being great (5 selections). You question marked it, but I don't think Bridgewater is a bust, but simply had a horrific injury causing rehab, Viking were considered contenders when he was the QB there and performed well with Saints. As for data, argument to 100% chance bust and no chance of greatness would be Aaron Rodgers

I've been trying to look at other ways to distinguish this by superbowl wins, passing % completion, and other metrics and they all show the same thing to me, but I might be biased. The only way I can think about doing this differently is by looking at "bust" rates versus "great" rates by position and even then it will be bias approach. At the end of the day, I think reaching for a QB can be costly to a team.  I'm not saying Burrows will bust, but taking the whole picture into place, if there are other standouts, it'd be best for a team with a top 10 pick to think about it.

 

[Danger]

19 minutes ago, ckoz24 said:

I think this illustrates the point tbh. Although we have to be cognizant of limited data and the definition of bust, underwhelming, good and great are. 

- a top 10 pick has a 66% chance of busing with an 8.3% chance at being great (12 selections)

- a 10 - 20 pick has a 60% chance of busting with a 20% chance of being great (5 selections, personally I think the margins are equal to above)

- a 20 - 32 pick has 100% chance of busting and no chance at being great (5 selections). You question marked it, but I don't think Bridgewater is a bust, but simply had a horrific injury causing rehab, Viking were considered contenders when he was the QB there and performed well with Saints. As for data, argument to 100% chance bust and no chance of greatness would be Aaron Rodgers

I've been trying to look at other ways to distinguish this by superbowl wins, passing % completion, and other metrics and they all show the same thing to me, but I might be biased. The only way I can think about doing this differently is by looking at "bust" rates versus "great" rates by position and even then it will be bias approach. At the end of the day, I think reaching for a QB can be costly to a team.  I'm not saying Burrows will bust, but taking the whole picture into place, if there are other standouts, it'd be best for a team with a top 10 pick to think about it.

 

More or less though it's 100% bust rate after the top 12. You're dividing it up in certain ways while there's a much more fine line to be demonstrated.

[ckoz24]

14 minutes ago, Danger said:

More or less though it's 100% bust rate after the top 12. You're dividing it up in certain ways while there's a much more fine line to be demonstrated.

It's a fair point, one that might be because of the nature of the NFL draft and teams that feeling the requirement to draft a QB high. The only question I'm raising and taking a reference from stock analysis is, are QB's blue-chip prospects when drafted or would a team be better to invest a top 3 pick into another gap in the system?  The second question I'll ask, should the Bengals draft Burrows when Andy Dalton (haven't watched his games this year, so don't judge to harshly) has shown to be a serviceable QB in the league vs. a player like Chase Young? 

I also think that if we are only utilizing 1st round picks as a data point and cut off, when we are missing the boat as the elite QB's in the league right now (outside of Mahomes) were drafted picks 20 or greater.  

Edited December 24, 2019 by ckoz24

[Drained]

I am still unsure on Burrow, not a fan of his arm strength but I do think he has good IQ. I would rather take Tua if you're sure his hip is going to heal well and you want to sit him, seems more well-rounded.

Edited December 24, 2019 by Drained