Moretti's bored at work mock 12/22/19

[AlexGreen#20]

Just now, Cheech said:

Call it wishful thinking, but I do think Bulaga will come back on a reasonable deal that wouldn't require 16 in cap space for one year.  He's a family guy, I think he genuinely likes where he's at, and he's on a team that knows how to keep him healthy with the extra vet rest that he gets throughout the season.  

At WR, I'd let Kumerow and Allison walk.  I'm going ahead with Adams, Lazard, MVS, EQ, and a rookie.  This class is loaded at WR - we could see a difference maker in the 2nd or 3rd round yet.  With the amount of reps that LF gives to TE, FB, and 2 back sets, I wouldn't keep a 6th WR.  I guess you could bring both guys back to camp just in case of injury - but I dont see either guy as a must have.

I'm drafting a TE too, but for now I think a TE group of Lewis, Tonyan, and Sternberger is servicable enough.  There are quite a few that think Sternberger has a very high ceiling as a pass catcher.  Lazard, at 6'5" 230 plays a lot like a move TE, too.  I thought that the reason (besides production) that he's playing more and MVS is playing less is LF's preference to run  condensed formations - and Lazard is a hell of a blocker out of those sets.  I see Sternberger growing into a really nice player if he's used in a similar way.  

After RT and ILB, I'd say DT and RB are fairly big needs for depth.  Adams just hasn't made that year 3 leap.  KeKe hasn't been given many chances to play, although I think he's a very high-upside guy.  I'd like to see a 2-gap player to pair with Clark.  

At RB, I'm sold on 32.  What a huge addition mid-season.  I wonder if he can do some similar things as 33 if he has an offseason to learn the offense.  Still, I'd love to see another back brought in as insurance.  

Say we get him back at 4/40. That with an 8.5 million dollar cap hit year one. 

Letting Kumerow walk saves you nothing. You can bring him back for 666k. It's just as cheap to bring Kumerow back as it is to bring in another dude to play his WR and ST snaps. You're going to need more bodies than that for camp anyway.

And that's fine, but unless one of the young guys takes a big step, you're probably dealing with a downgrade at TE without Graham.

Clark is the 2-gap player. The defense needs a 3T and a 5T who can shoot a gap and get after it. 

RB is fine. You don't need to do anything there. 

 

[moretti19]

20 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Say we get him back at 4/40. That with an 8.5 million dollar cap hit year one. 

Letting Kumerow walk saves you nothing. You can bring him back for 666k. It's just as cheap to bring Kumerow back as it is to bring in another dude to play his WR and ST snaps. You're going to need more bodies than that for camp anyway.

And that's fine, but unless one of the young guys takes a big step, you're probably dealing with a downgrade at TE without Graham.

Clark is the 2-gap player. The defense needs a 3T and a 5T who can shoot a gap and get after it. 

RB is fine. You don't need to do anything there. 

 

Thanks AG for the breakdown. I honestly thought we had a little more wiggle room than that. This will be interesting then because I MIGHT be willing to let Martinez walk (hopefully get a 3rd round comp the next year) and bring back Bulaga. The run game is what is making everything go for this team right now and Bulaga is opening some serious holes. I know people would be disgusted by it but Dylan Moses in the first might be good value.

[Packerraymond]

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Say we get him back at 4/40. That with an 8.5 million dollar cap hit year one. 

Letting Kumerow walk saves you nothing. You can bring him back for 666k. It's just as cheap to bring Kumerow back as it is to bring in another dude to play his WR and ST snaps. You're going to need more bodies than that for camp anyway.

And that's fine, but unless one of the young guys takes a big step, you're probably dealing with a downgrade at TE without Graham.

Clark is the 2-gap player. The defense needs a 3T and a 5T who can shoot a gap and get after it. 

RB is fine. You don't need to do anything there. 

 

8.5 is too high, you get him to go 4 years and you can get that hit down to 4-5m year 1 depending on guarantees. If we eat some money cutting him in 2-3 years, so be it.

[AlexGreen#20]

4 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

8.5 is too high, you get him to go 4 years and you can get that hit down to 4-5m year 1 depending on guarantees. If we eat some money cutting him in 2-3 years, so be it.

I don't think you're getting him for less than 15 guaranteed in the signing bonus. That alone gets you up to 3.75 annually. Even if you could get him down to the minimum salary year 1, you're already hanging out at 5 million.

Something like:

Year 1: 3.75 guaranteed/1.25 non guaranteed

Year 2: 3.75 guaranteed/6.25 non guaranteed

Year 3: 3.75 guaranteed/8.25 non guaranteed

Year 4: 3.75 guaranteed/9.25 non guaranteed

That pretty much keeps him safe from getting cut in year 2.

A one year deal is 1/16.25

A two year deal is 2/23

A three year deal is 3/31.25

A four year deal is 4/40

 

[Packerraymond]

35 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I don't think you're getting him for less than 15 guaranteed in the signing bonus. That alone gets you up to 3.75 annually. Even if you could get him down to the minimum salary year 1, you're already hanging out at 5 million.

Something like:

Year 1: 3.75 guaranteed/1.25 non guaranteed

Year 2: 3.75 guaranteed/6.25 non guaranteed

Year 3: 3.75 guaranteed/8.25 non guaranteed

Year 4: 3.75 guaranteed/9.25 non guaranteed

That pretty much keeps him safe from getting cut in year 2.

A one year deal is 1/16.25

A two year deal is 2/23

A three year deal is 3/31.25

A four year deal is 4/40

 

That's perfect, 5m cap hit. You can throw some more on year 3-4 if he demands it to make him feel better. We need to buy a DL, and a good one. This FA class is excellent at that position. Focus on skill players during the draft.

[AlexGreen#20]

15 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

That's perfect, 5m cap hit. You can throw some more on year 3-4 if he demands it to make him feel better. We need to buy a DL, and a good one. This FA class is excellent at that position. Focus on skill players during the draft.

That's the ideal contract for us of course. Not sure he goes for it.

Generally on a 4 year deal the guy tries to collect 2/3 to 3/4 of the total cash (not cap hit) in the first two years. 

 

[coachbuns]

Let's hope he really likes it here, likes the team and really does want to stay.  Up rooting his family and moving on to another team at his age may not be his thing.  Offer what you've proposed and hope he's good with it.  If not, bite the bullet a touch more .. he really has played very well this year.    

[Golfman]

4 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Say we get him back at 4/40. That with an 8.5 million dollar cap hit year one. 

Letting Kumerow walk saves you nothing. You can bring him back for 666k. It's just as cheap to bring Kumerow back as it is to bring in another dude to play his WR and ST snaps. You're going to need more bodies than that for camp anyway.

And that's fine, but unless one of the young guys takes a big step, you're probably dealing with a downgrade at TE without Graham.

Clark is the 2-gap player. The defense needs a 3T and a 5T who can shoot a gap and get after it. 

RB is fine. You don't need to do anything there. 

 

Depending on how much is guaranteed and when we can cut bait without additional cap cost, I'd say do it in a hurry. 

[Cheech]

12 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Say we get him back at 4/40. That with an 8.5 million dollar cap hit year one. 

Letting Kumerow walk saves you nothing. You can bring him back for 666k. It's just as cheap to bring Kumerow back as it is to bring in another dude to play his WR and ST snaps. You're going to need more bodies than that for camp anyway.

And that's fine, but unless one of the young guys takes a big step, you're probably dealing with a downgrade at TE without Graham.

Clark is the 2-gap player. The defense needs a 3T and a 5T who can shoot a gap and get after it. 

RB is fine. You don't need to do anything there. 

 

I agree with you, but I'd like to see him kick out to the 3T so he's freed up to make more plays in the backfield.  

I dont think Graham to Tonyan or Sternberger is going to be a measurable downgrade.  Rodgers will be forced to throw to one of those guys, and 35 catches for 400 yards isn't something that I'm going to lose sleep over if we dont go out and get a vet.  I think either of those two could replace that production, or even exceed it, given the opportunity.

[AlexGreen#20]

22 minutes ago, Cheech said:

I agree with you, but I'd like to see him kick out to the 3T so he's freed up to make more plays in the backfield.  

I dont think Graham to Tonyan or Sternberger is going to be a measurable downgrade.  Rodgers will be forced to throw to one of those guys, and 35 catches for 400 yards isn't something that I'm going to lose sleep over if we dont go out and get a vet.  I think either of those two could replace that production, or even exceed it, given the opportunity.

Move him out to 3T and you lose the game wrecking presence in the run game to some extent.

It's way easier to find a 3T that can shoot a gap than it is to find a 0/1 who can still give you some juice.

Hell, Clark still plays the 1T when he's paired with Lancaster, though I do hate that