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GDT Game 16: The Raiders at Home! Nuff said.

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Really love how making a QB move can literally bring a WR from the dead. I was ready to advocate cutting Hamilton and suddenly he looks like a passable slot WR. He pretty clearly has shown enough to be given that spot heading into 2020/21 and thats great, because I assumed we were going to be looking for two WR starters. 

While Fant needs to get tougher (Never a guarantee) and play with more urgency, his raw stats suggest he will be very good. Of other R1 TE's taken in the past 15 years, look at some of their raw stats:

Greg Olsen 391 yards / 2 TD / 59% catch rate

Dallas Clark 340 yards / 1 TD / 69% catch rate

Vernon Davis 265 yards / 3 TD / 47% catch rate

Jeremy Shockey 894 yards / 2 TD / 59% catch rate

Noah Fant 562 yards / 3 TD / 60% catch rate

He is about on track with the other great R1 pass catching TE's. He may be annoying to those that prefer a smashmouth, tougher than nails TE, but to those that understand the changing game he clearly shows all the metrics of being a tremendous issue in the passing game. 

As for the draft, Simmons all the way if available at 15. If not, I prefer a trade down, assuming Thomas and Wirfs are gone. 

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9 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

Really love how making a QB move can literally bring a WR from the dead. I was ready to advocate cutting Hamilton and suddenly he looks like a passable slot WR. He pretty clearly has shown enough to be given that spot heading into 2020/21 and thats great, because I assumed we were going to be looking for two WR starters. 

While Fant needs to get tougher (Never a guarantee) and play with more urgency, his raw stats suggest he will be very good. Of other R1 TE's taken in the past 15 years, look at some of their raw stats:

Greg Olsen 391 yards / 2 TD / 59% catch rate

Dallas Clark 340 yards / 1 TD / 69% catch rate

Vernon Davis 265 yards / 3 TD / 47% catch rate

Jeremy Shockey 894 yards / 2 TD / 59% catch rate

Noah Fant 562 yards / 3 TD / 60% catch rate

He is about on track with the other great R1 pass catching TE's. He may be annoying to those that prefer a smashmouth, tougher than nails TE, but to those that understand the changing game he clearly shows all the metrics of being a tremendous issue in the passing game. 

As for the draft, Simmons all the way if available at 15. If not, I prefer a trade down, assuming Thomas and Wirfs are gone. 

Has he though? I'm not saying he won't contribute next year, but realistically, I'm not sure two good games outweigh his lack of contribution in the remainder of the games he's played. I'm of the opinion that the WR position is a complete toss up in terms of next year. I wouldn't be opposed to bringing in a draft pick an FA signing, because frankly I'm not sold that Hamilton and Patrick are anything more than #4/#5 types on a competing team.

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Has he though? I'm not saying he won't contribute next year, but realistically, I'm not sure two good games outweigh his lack of contribution in the remainder of the games he's played. I'm of the opinion that the WR position is a complete toss up in terms of next year. I wouldn't be opposed to bringing in a draft pick an FA signing, because frankly I'm not sold that Hamilton and Patrick are anything more than #4/#5 types on a competing team.

 

I dont necessarily disagree here, and my comment may have seemed too confident in him. I was basically saying that he deserves another change to win that slot job whereas I was ready to cut him beforehand as he was a nothing on the field and didnt play ST. 

I think he is very average, but may be passable until something better comes along. If WR is BPA 2-3 times in this draft, we should swing. I just think Hamilton has shown a pulse. 

NOTE - Looks like I used the word 'given the spot'. That was not intended lol. I think he should be given a shot moreso.  

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1 hour ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

@Broncofan you keep saying 3 T, who are your 3? Thomas is far and away the best, and honestly is the only top 15 OT I have in the class at this point. 

most people like Wirfs as the 2nd guy based off of his insane tools and Iowa pedigree, but everytime I watched him he reminded me of Bolles with his meathead plays. I have Austin Jackson and Alex leatherwood in that same group of Raw LT prospects with great tools with Wirfs. 

If you’re looking at RT only guys Jedrick Wills is one of 3 instant start OL guys i see in this class (with Thomas and Biadasz), and the massive Mekhi Becton looks to be a great RT for a long time as well. 
 

Then there is the wild card. Trey Adams looked like a top 5 pick 3 years ago before injuries derailed him. He stayed healthy all season so I could see a team taking him earlier than many are projecting.

 

My point is I don’t personally have a big fall off after 3. I see a big fall after 1 then a lot of really good players. For the Broncos James’ contract makes picking an RT without positional flexibility like wills or Becton less likely unless they think James can play LT.

i want us to go OL with at least 2 of our (currently 5) top 100 picks, but if it’s not the first round I’m ok with that. I want BPA 1st round, this team has too many replacement level players in starting roles to do otherwise.

It’s a totally fair comment on Leatherwood.   I don’t even consider a .’Bama player given Elway’s history in passing over those guys.  And it’s fair to question if ‘Bama’s lack of success on NFL OL is due to the whole unit often being dominant.  But yeah Leatherwood probably belongs in the mid teens BPA mix too.    

Re: Wirfs 3 huge differences from Bolles:

-Battle tested in the Big 10, on a good team but often facing better competition.   Many of the teams he faced sent DL / pass rushers to the NFL (OSU, MSU, Michigan, Wisky)  Bolles faced a cream puff trench schedule in comparison with Utah, and on a team that only faced equal or better competition 1-2x at most per year, and nowhere near the elite level of H2H competition. 

-Wirfs was an age 18 starter in 9 games as a freshman and every game in his sophomore & junior years (minus 1 for suspension for drunk & disorderly - nothing more so without more flags I don’t ding him).    That above all else is a massive predictor for success when you add in the film and competition faced. 

-Like Lane Johnson in PHI, Iowa kept him at RT because that’s where he started as a freshman / sophomore.  But has the bend / footwork for LT.  And when he moved to LT he was more than ok this year.  
 

There are no guarantees with any rookie, but the Bolles - Wirfs comparison is a terrible one from the college perspective.   You couldn’t get 2 more different play / film profiles.  
 

I’m admittedly a huge sucker for age-with-success, but have really turned even more to success-in-elite-competition especially when the guy played on the dog for many big games.   Thomas is a generational talent but IMO Wirfs deserves the 2nd T tag.   Jackson has even better tools and great tape - but the competition isn’t even close to the same.   Wish we could see more elite H2H film.  

 

Edited by Broncofan

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I've been looking all over and can't find the replay on Bolles penalty. Anybody got that?

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@Broncofan I think you misunderstood me with the Wirfs/Bolles comp. wasn’t comparing their technique or strengths at all (though I do think their feet are both of their biggest strengths) but rather the fact that both look to reach on the counter moves. Both players will stonewall an initial move but seem to be slow in picking up counters, stunts, etc. and look lost and end up reaching as a result. In college it’s not a big deal but as Bolles has shown in the pros it results in a lot of holds. All of that being said Wirfs is still a much better prospect than Bolles was, he’s just got some meathead to him

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7 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

@Broncofan I think you misunderstood me with the Wirfs/Bolles comp. wasn’t comparing their technique or strengths at all (though I do think their feet are both of their biggest strengths) but rather the fact that both look to reach on the counter moves. Both players will stonewall an initial move but seem to be slow in picking up counters, stunts, etc. and look lost and end up reaching as a result. In college it’s not a big deal but as Bolles has shown in the pros it results in a lot of holds. All of that being said Wirfs is still a much better prospect than Bolles was, he’s just got some meathead to him

Yeah that’s fair - but the big diff is that Wirfs being 20 (turning 21) - he’s a baby.   The room to both get better physically AND get coached up is massive.   Bolles as a 25-year old rookie, the ceiling was so much lower and far greater risk that his flaws wouldn’t correct as easily, and were masked by facing 19-21 year olds as a 24-year old.   If he didn’t have that flaw (and the RT label), he’d probably be in the top 6-8 overall BPA wise.  

Edited by Broncofan

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14 hours ago, jsthomp2007 said:

Shoot, if the refs didn't hand the Bears and Colts those earlier games, they would have been in the playoffs.  Not a bad year if you think about how bad the Broncos were last year.  Next season you get Chubb back; $90MM+ in cap space; and 12 draft picks.  Plus, maybe, and I think the jury is still out, but maybe the Broncos found a QB? 

Not even to be negative bc I’m happy with where the Broncos are at my my goodness the NFL as a whole is pretty weak this year. Definitely the AFC

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58 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

I dont necessarily disagree here, and my comment may have seemed too confident in him. I was basically saying that he deserves another change to win that slot job whereas I was ready to cut him beforehand as he was a nothing on the field and didnt play ST. 

I think he is very average, but may be passable until something better comes along. If WR is BPA 2-3 times in this draft, we should swing. I just think Hamilton has shown a pulse. 

NOTE - Looks like I used the word 'given the spot'. That was not intended lol. I think he should be given a shot moreso.  

That's fair. I agree, he may be passable, and with any rookie, there will be some hiccups, so having someone Lock is comfortable with is important. That said, I expect someone who will make his skillset somewhat redundant will be brought in.

Elway needs Lock to succeed. Desperately needs it. So he's going to load up this offense to give him the opportunity. 

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9 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Yeah that’s fair - but the big diff is that Wirfs being 20 (turning 21) - he’s a baby.   The room to both get better physically AND get coached up is massive.   Bolles as a 25-year old rookie, the ceiling was so much lower and far greater risk that his flaws wouldn’t correct as easily, and were masked by facing 19-21 year olds as a 24-year old.   If he didn’t have that flaw (and the RT label), he’d probably be in the top 6-8 overall BPA wise.  

I agree completely! But those are the reasons I have him in the second tier instead of the Thomas tier. It would not upset me at all to take him at 15, but I wouldn’t be mad if he’s not available either as I think there are some other equally good prospects available, and 4-5 more who are only a step behind.

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Elway needs Lock to succeed. Desperately needs it. So he's going to load up this offense to give him the opportunity. 

Obviously we need to improve our WR corp, but I also wouldnt have an issue signing a TE2 that can give us even more passing options.

Tyler Eifert for 4-6M would not be a bad fit. We would need to seriously improve the line if we went all pass heavy at the TE spot, but if the OL can generally hold its own and not need help chipping as often, having both Fant and Eifert out there to high point balls and provide dynamic seam play can really open an offense up. 

WR's get paid handsomely, I think a guy like Dorsett will be fielding long term deals at 8M+. If that is the case, give me Eifert and 2-3 drafted WR's. 

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3 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

Obviously we need to improve our WR corp, but I also wouldnt have an issue signing a TE2 that can give us even more passing options.

Tyler Eifert for 4-6M would not be a bad fit. We would need to seriously improve the line if we went all pass heavy at the TE spot, but if the OL can generally hold its own and not need help chipping as often, having both Fant and Eifert out there to high point balls and provide dynamic seam play can really open an offense up. 

WR's get paid handsomely, I think a guy like Dorsett will be fielding long term deals at 8M+. If that is the case, give me Eifert and 2-3 drafted WR's. 

My major concerns with Eifert:

1.  He's a pure move TE.   No help whatsoever in the blocking game.  I don't know how Eifert and Fant see the field together.

2.  He's as brittle as they come.    CIN managed him for no more than 30-40 snaps a game, so it was only on passing downs.    Now, that's fine - but again, that brings in how you fit him and Fant in next year.

I don't mind the concept of finding a 2nd TE who can help sooner, just Eifert comes with a bad skill fit and a HUGE red flag health-wise.   It's hard to find good inline TE's who can supplement the pass game, but that's what you're looking for.    A guy like Darren Fells signed to a 1+1 might be a better fit, as he has inline skills.

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17 hours ago, germ-x said:

That’s just why Bolles can’t be back as the starter.  Bone headed plays and the fan base boos him anytime he makes a mistake.  He’s unreliable because he’s a loose cannon.

I feel like he’s almost a lock to be back although possible that they draft a T in the first round and he’s not a starter? What do you guys think? I feel like we’re guaranteed to see Bolles next year. 
 

he’s a classic gets to stick around bc of his draft position guy

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Some notes from the end-of-year presser:

1. All coordinators expected to be back (we'll see on McMahon)
2. They'll look into reworking Phillip Lindsay's contract
3. They'll pick up Von's option
4. "Not sure" on CHJ but they want Simmons back)
5. They feel like they've finally gotten the locker room right again
6. "Don't see another option" but Drew being the guy next year

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14 minutes ago, champ11 said:

I feel like he’s almost a lock to be back although possible that they draft a T in the first round and he’s not a starter? What do you guys think? I feel like we’re guaranteed to see Bolles next year. 
 

he’s a classic gets to stick around bc of his draft position guy

The sad part is he’s going to stick around because there is no one better. 30/32 teams arguably have a bottom 10 OL. Line play is just SOOO bad right now.
 

Combination of spread offenses dominating college and the CBA limiting the amount of actual practice the OL can get (walk through and 7on7 does nothing for the development of the line). 

Broncos fans boo Bolles, but he’s an upgrade for at least a dozen teams. 

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