Power Rankings and MVP Race Thread

[GSUeagles14]

1 hour ago, Pats#1 said:

I conceded that point several posts earlier. 

 

All good, maybe we can finally get a Rodgers vs Brady SB.

i mean, both defenses are pretty bad. both bottom 5 so far, although its only 3 games in. 

[strat1080]

5 hours ago, incognito_man said:

It was obvious at the start of the season looking at the NE defense and questioning where the pressure on the QB was going to come from. NE lost 3 of their top 4 sack producers from last year, and NE is 26th in sack % so far this year. LIS, there were some clear signs the defense might not be very good.

I agree. Losing disruptive Front 7 players that can generate a pass rush is no trivial matter.

[Jakuvious]

To add one thing on the topic of the Patriots defense regressing, I think it's also worth noting that no one actually thought they had the #1 defense in the NFL last year. It isn't like they've actually regressed from #1 to bottom 5 or 10 or whatever. They weren't #1 in the first place, really. They were just pretty good with the weakest schedule of opposing offense's in the NFL last season (per Football Outsiders.) They played two top 10 scoring offense's all year, Pittsburgh and Arizona. They were 16th in DVOA. 10th in yards per play allowed. They were never really the #1 defense in the NFL. And I feel like that was the consensus. Maybe I'm wrong and a lot of people did think that, but I don't remember them generally being regarded as such, despite the points allowed.

[Hunter2_1]

7 hours ago, incognito_man said:

It was obvious at the start of the season looking at the NE defense and questioning where the pressure on the QB was going to come from. NE lost 3 of their top 4 sack producers from last year, and NE is 26th in sack % so far this year. LIS, there were some clear signs the defense might not be very good.

Well, we're already better on the sack front.

It is not clear that we were lacking at the start of the season. We shipped out part time players and a subpar corner. Replaced the corner with a better one, and replaced the pass rushers with draft picks (one of which is playing lights out).

Our issues stem from lack of athleticism at LB and poor production from players that were good last year (Branch, for instance).

One thing that it is, is surprising. 

[childofpudding]

10 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

To add one thing on the topic of the Patriots defense regressing, I think it's also worth noting that no one actually thought they had the #1 defense in the NFL last year. It isn't like they've actually regressed from #1 to bottom 5 or 10 or whatever. They weren't #1 in the first place, really. They were just pretty good with the weakest schedule of opposing offense's in the NFL last season (per Football Outsiders.) They played two top 10 scoring offense's all year, Pittsburgh and Arizona. They were 16th in DVOA. 10th in yards per play allowed. They were never really the #1 defense in the NFL. And I feel like that was the consensus. Maybe I'm wrong and a lot of people did think that, but I don't remember them generally being regarded as such, despite the points allowed.

Yep, that's fair. They weren't the best defense. Top 10 for sure, borderline top 5. They had a really good run D, a good ST team that started the opponent off deep in their own zone more often than not, and an offense that didn't turn the ball over very often, which forced their opponent to sustain long drives.

[childofpudding]

4 minutes ago, tonyto36 said:

Sacks are such a garbage stat.  

2016 stats:

Cleveland 66 sacks (1st in the league).  28.3 points per game allowed (30th in the league)

Rams 49 sacks (2nd in the league).  24.6 points per game allowed (23rd in the league)

Niners 47 sacks (3rd in the league).  30.0 points per game allowed (32nd in the league)

Those are sacks allowed. Yikes.

[childofpudding]

Though I agree with your general argument tony. The problem with the Patriots' D in the first three games wasn't their edge rushers. The middle of the line isn't as stout with Branch starting out camp on PUP and taking limited snaps. The secondary is having communication issues and still gelling with Gilmore as a new addition. Hightower, their best defensive player, has been out for 2+ games. Those are the biggest factors, not their edge rushers. Flowers and the rookie Wise look great so far.

[childofpudding]

17 minutes ago, tonyto36 said:

Foot in mouth for sure.

Regardless, sacks are a garbage stat with high variance.

I mostly agree.  I think there were a lot of easily correctable things that have already been adjusted and Hightower will be back eventually.  Flowers and Wise have absolutely been two of the best parts of the defense, but I was referring to the depth behind them.  When those two aren't on the field the DL has suffered, AND when they were asked to play more like in the Texans game, they eventually just wore out in the 4th quarter (and without checking, I'd assume also the Chiefs game where the Chiefs went off in the 4th).

Yep, again I agree. Last year they had that 4-man DE rotation. Now they don't have much behind Flowers and Wise, though I'm optimistic about Guy and Marsh developing.

I can definitely understand how casual watchers of the Patriots might think the pass rush could be the problem, with all that turnover. Was definitely a big concern going into the season.

[Pats#1]

13 hours ago, strat1080 said:

I agree. Losing disruptive Front 7 players that can generate a pass rush is no trivial matter.

The Patriots have a better sacks per game and sack percentage this year then they did at this point last year.

Not saying they are good, they just haven't seen a drop off so far this year from last comparatively.

[Pats#1]

16 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

To add one thing on the topic of the Patriots defense regressing, I think it's also worth noting that no one actually thought they had the #1 defense in the NFL last year. It isn't like they've actually regressed from #1 to bottom 5 or 10 or whatever. They weren't #1 in the first place, really. They were just pretty good with the weakest schedule of opposing offense's in the NFL last season (per Football Outsiders.) They played two top 10 scoring offense's all year, Pittsburgh and Arizona. They were 16th in DVOA. 10th in yards per play allowed. They were never really the #1 defense in the NFL. And I feel like that was the consensus. Maybe I'm wrong and a lot of people did think that, but I don't remember them generally being regarded as such, despite the points allowed.

Completely agree, which is why going by stats in a vacuum can be pretty misleading.

Last year they were above average but not close to the best in the league.

 

I think they will end up middle of the pack this season of Hightower can stay healthy a f Gilmore can get some communication issues fixed. 

[incognito_man]

3 hours ago, Pats#1 said:

The Patriots have a better sacks per game and sack percentage this year then they did at this point last year.

Not saying they are good, they just haven't seen a drop off so far this year from last comparatively.

a lack of pass rush (sack%) was not shown as sole evidence of a 'bad' defense, it is simply a symptom of. Should we choose other measures?

DVOA: 32nd (by FAR)

DVOA vs pass: 31st

Off pts against: 32nd (by FAR)

Passer Rating against: 30th

Opp yds per game: 32nd (by FAR)

Opp 1st downs per game: 30th

etc.

[Pats#1]

3 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

a lack of pass rush (sack%) was not shown as sole evidence of a 'bad' defense, it is simply a symptom of. Should we choose other measures?

DVOA: 32nd (by FAR)

DVOA vs pass: 31st

Off pts against: 32nd (by FAR)

Passer Rating against: 30th

Opp yds per game: 32nd (by FAR)

Opp 1st downs per game: 30th

etc.

I know the stats are bad right now, I was just pointing out your reasoning for the Pats defense being bad "obvious" before the start of the season was actually 100% wrong as it is better than at the same point last year.

I'm willing to bet the Packers and Patriots both finish right around middle of the pack this season on defense in most statistical categories.

I just think your trying to pass off hindsight knowledge as you knowing something no one else saw.

[incognito_man]

3

11 minutes ago, Pats#1 said:

I know the stats are bad right now, I was just pointing out your reasoning for the Pats defense being bad "obvious" before the start of the season was actually 100% wrong as it is better than at the same point last year.

I'm willing to bet the Packers and Patriots both finish right around middle of the pack this season on defense in most statistical categories.

I just think your trying to pass off hindsight knowledge as you knowing something no one else saw.

Well, you're wrong. I absolutely had discussions about how they didn't appear to be as good on defense this year because they had no pass-rushers on their team. Maybe it was with @NormSizedMidget? Not sure. But I certainly brought up my doubts about NEs defense before the season started several times.

[Norm]

Just now, incognito_man said:

3

Well, you're wrong. I absolutely had discussions about how they didn't appear to be as good on defense this year because they had no pass-rushers on their team. Maybe it was with @NormSizedMidget? Not sure. But I certainly brought up my doubts about NEs defense before the season started several times.

Can vouch

[Pats#1]

1 minute ago, incognito_man said:

3

Well, you're wrong. I absolutely had discussions about how they didn't appear to be as good on defense this year because they had no pass-rushers on their team. Maybe it was with @NormSizedMidget? Not sure. But I certainly brought up my doubts about NEs defense before the season started several times.

But their pass rushing isn't worse than last season and hasn't been the reason they've struggled so far...thats where I'm saying you're wrong. In your attempt to say that was the reason it was "obvious" the defense would struggle.