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Picking #3


Superduperman

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26 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Especially with that schedule: the Bears (x2), Cowboys, Redskins, Vikings, Bucs, Broncos and Packers. Only two of those teams (Vikings and Packers) finished 2019 with a winning record, and the Blough-led Lions nearly beat the Packers week 17.

I think we absolutely beat the Bears at least once, Cowboys, Skins and Packers. At the minimum. Stafford was playing  great; let's not forget that.

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8 minutes ago, detroitroar said:

I think we absolutely beat the Bears at least once, Cowboys, Skins and Packers. At the minimum. Stafford was playing  great; let's not forget that.

I'm actually giving the Cowboys the W in my assessment. 

Raiders - L

Bears - W

Cowboys - L

Redskins - W

Bears - W

Vikings - L

Bucs - L

Broncos - W

Packers - W

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1 hour ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Lots of speculation and excuses in both of our posts it seems. At least it's more than "no examples of a coach failing for years and suddenly improving", as this has happened numerous times.

The truth of all of this is that, if the Lions made the playoffs last year, none of this would matter right now. No one would care. It's only an issue because of the record, and the record was only what it was in 2019 because of Stafford's injury. When you look at how ridiculously easy our 2nd have schedule was, managing 5 or 6 wins out of that group is actually pretty reasonable.

You are exactly right, if they made the playoffs this year this wouldnt be an issue (insert Booger McFarland MNF meme).  We had a losing Record with Stafford.  I'm not willing to say the team makes the playoffs if Stafford was there.  This team is not good, the defense is not good.  There were plenty of other teams who lost their QB this year and still didn't end up 3-12-1.  The Panthers lose Cam and win 4 straight games, the Titans switch to Fitzpatrick and go to the AFC championship game.  The Steelers almost make the playoffs with a 4th string QB, etc.  All of those teams will be better next year and have real reason to be excited about the potential of getting their QBs back or upgrading the position.  We didn't do that.  We almost won a bunch of games but we have done that before, and it just never really translates to wins the next year.  So I will judge based on his expertise (defense that is second worst in the league and one of the Lions all time worst in yards given up) instead of what ifs and maybes. 

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15 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I'm actually giving the Cowboys the W in my assessment. 

Raiders - L

Bears - W

Cowboys - L

Redskins - W

Bears - W

Vikings - L

Bucs - L

Broncos - W

Packers - W

You cant just say, hey we were close so with Stafford they win.  GB and Denver would have had different gameplans if they had to score more, and against our D, anyone could.  I think the Skins and maybe one of the Bears games would be wins.  Even if your thoughts were the case, we are an 8 win team with our QB and not in the playoffs, picking in the early 20s.  Which means we are not contending with anyone. 

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Just now, Sllim Pickens said:

You cant just say, hey we were close so with Stafford they win.  GB and Denver would have had different gameplans if they had to score more, and against our D, anyone could.  I think the Skins and maybe one of the Bears games would be wins.  Even if your thoughts were the case, we are an 8 win team with our QB and not in the playoffs, picking in the early 20s.  Which means we are not contending with anyone. 

We all know what the result should have been in that first Green Bay game. It's a 9-7-1 record with a healthy Stafford. That's giving the Raiders and Cowboys wins that maybe should be losses if Stafford is healthy and/or playing. There are some absolute gaps in this team that need to be addressed, principally on the defense. Even if they somehow did make the playoffs they would have been a one-and-done team. 

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23 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

You cant just say, hey we were close so with Stafford they win.  GB and Denver would have had different gameplans if they had to score more, and against our D, anyone could.  I think the Skins and maybe one of the Bears games would be wins.  Even if your thoughts were the case, we are an 8 win team with our QB and not in the playoffs, picking in the early 20s.  Which means we are not contending with anyone. 

I think it is fair to say that given what Stafford showed and how our backup QB play deteriorated. No way to prove it of course, but I'd bet if we had a healthy Stafford and won a close one against GB without Rodgers youd be chalking that up as a probable loss.

Who are you to say we would of had 2 wins but not 4? Your acknowledging a difference then say its not fair to speculate??

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3 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

You are exactly right, if they made the playoffs this year this wouldnt be an issue (insert Booger McFarland MNF meme).  We had a losing Record with Stafford.  I'm not willing to say the team makes the playoffs if Stafford was there.  This team is not good, the defense is not good.  There were plenty of other teams who lost their QB this year and still didn't end up 3-12-1.  The Panthers lose Cam and win 4 straight games, the Titans switch to Fitzpatrick and go to the AFC championship game.  The Steelers almost make the playoffs with a 4th string QB, etc.  All of those teams will be better next year and have real reason to be excited about the potential of getting their QBs back or upgrading the position.  We didn't do that.  We almost won a bunch of games but we have done that before, and it just never really translates to wins the next year.  So I will judge based on his expertise (defense that is second worst in the league and one of the Lions all time worst in yards given up) instead of what ifs and maybes. 

This ignores that our first half schedule was vastly more difficult than our second half schedule. If we were 3-4-1 with Stafford against more difficult opponents, finishing with at least 8 or 9 wins isn't unreasonable.

Look at those examples: the Panthers lost Cam and won 4 straight... to finish 5-11. Yay...? Is that a good thing? They lost late 1st round value (the difference between the 3rd overall pick and 7th overall pick is 700 points, or the 26th overall pick) and accomplished what exactly? What will it take for them to trade up with us for Tua, if they view him as a franchise QB? A 2nd and future 1st round pick? All because they won meaningless games. (Tannehill, not Fitzpatrick, but it's all the same.)

Will those teams be better? How do we know? Does managing to finish as a mediocre team in 2019 help a team improve in 2020? Would finishing 8-8 in 2018 have helped the 49ers more in 2019 than drafting Bosa?

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5 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

This ignores that our first half schedule was vastly more difficult than our second half schedule. If we were 3-4-1 with Stafford against more difficult opponents, finishing with at least 8 or 9 wins isn't unreasonable.

Look at those examples: the Panthers lost Cam and won 4 straight... to finish 5-11. Yay...? Is that a good thing? They lost late 1st round value (the difference between the 3rd overall pick and 7th overall pick is 700 points, or the 26th overall pick) and accomplished what exactly? What will it take for them to trade up with us for Tua, if they view him as a franchise QB? A 2nd and future 1st round pick? All because they won meaningless games. (Tannehill, not Fitzpatrick, but it's all the same.)

Will those teams be better? How do we know? Does managing to finish as a mediocre team in 2019 help a team improve in 2020? Would finishing 8-8 in 2018 have helped the 49ers more in 2019 than drafting Bosa?

We tied with AZ and lost to Oakland in the front end.  Yes we played KC and GB, but we also lost to scrubs. We just snuck by a couple teams who are picking in the top 10 (Chargers, Giants), and another sub .500 team (Philly).  So although at the time it looked good, turns out those other teams just sucked.  The second half of our schedule was actually harder based on record other than one game (KC).  So no, I don't have faith Stafford would have resurrected us to beat middle of the road teams because we lost to them (or tied them) with him. 

And yes, the 49ers benefited from losing more games, they also had an upward trajectory with their QB, we did not.  They also added Tevin Coleman and Mostert who have revitalized their run game.  Bosa helped for sure, but so did having a top 12 defense before they added Bosa.  We dont have that to go on with our D guru coach.  

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For the crowd that wants Patricia gone, I have a couple questions pertaining to the number 3 pick. If the Lions took Tua at 3, to me, this shows the "win now" mantra is highly exaggerated. 

  • Would you be disappointed with Tua at 3 and the fact that Martha is going to leave this staff in place for a few more years? 
  • Would you be happy with Tua at 3? 
  • Would you be alright with Quinn staying and Patricia leaving? (I don't think this will be the case, but whatever)
  • Would you rather the Lions not take Tua at 3 just for the fact it shows the staff is on the hot seat and we are in a win now mode?
    *This all assumes that Chase Young is off the board and Tua is the QBOF for Detroit. Really, put your favorite QB at 3 and the questions still pertain.
Edited by LionArkie
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27 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

For the crowd that wants Patricia gone, I have a couple questions pertaining to the number 3 pick. If the Lions took Tua at 3, to me, this shows the "win now" mantra is highly exaggerated. 

  • Would you be disappointed with Tua at 3 and the fact that Martha is going to leave this staff in place for a few more years? 
  • Would you be happy with Tua at 3? 
  • Would you be alright with Quinn staying and Patricia leaving? (I don't think this will be the case, but whatever)
  • Would you rather the Lions not take Tua at 3 just for the fact it shows the staff is on the hot seat and we are in a win now mode?
    *This all assumes that Chase Young is off the board and Tua is the QBOF for Detroit. Really, put your favorite QB at 3 and the questions still pertain.

Regardless, I just have to say that if Burrow somehow made it to 3, I would at the least consider it.

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3 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

We tied with AZ and lost to Oakland in the front end.  Yes we played KC and GB, but we also lost to scrubs. We just snuck by a couple teams who are picking in the top 10 (Chargers, Giants), and another sub .500 team (Philly).  So although at the time it looked good, turns out those other teams just sucked.  The second half of our schedule was actually harder based on record other than one game (KC).  So no, I don't have faith Stafford would have resurrected us to beat middle of the road teams because we lost to them (or tied them) with him. 

And yes, the 49ers benefited from losing more games, they also had an upward trajectory with their QB, we did not.  They also added Tevin Coleman and Mostert who have revitalized their run game.  Bosa helped for sure, but so did having a top 12 defense before they added Bosa.  We dont have that to go on with our D guru coach.  

The fact that you don't see this team has having upward trajectory with a healthy Stafford is the crux of this disagreement, in my opinion. Sure, we were flawed, but with Stafford, we were mere bounces (or bad calls) away from being regarded as one of the better teams. (Read over those GDTs if you don't believe me: many of the same Lions' fans that want Patricia gone now were fully behind him at the time.)

Bosa's impact on SF can't be understated. Many regard him as the most valuable player on that roster. Without Bosa, some think they fall short of the playoffs. They only have him because they finished 4-12 in 2018.

I'd much rather finish 3-12-1 and land a potential elite player than manage to scrape together a few late season wins and pick in the middle of the draft.

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I think I've convinced myself that there are only three 'idea' outcomes for this team moving forward. (In this order.)

1. Trade Up to Pick #2 - Draft Chase Young

As it stands, the difference between the 2nd overall pick and 3rd overall pick is 400ish points, or a mid-2nd round pick. The Redskins would (obviously) demand more, and I'd be willing to give more: even including our 2021 1st round pick. Yes, that much more, and it might just take that to get the Redskins to answer the phone. Some may balk at the thought of giving that much for one player, but Chase Young isn't just a prospect... many believe he's a generational talent, and is one player that's worth it. Scouts have claimed that he's even better than Nick Bosa as a prospect, and we saw the impact Bosa had for the 49ers this year. Landing a player as rare as Young and pairing him with Flowers could single-handedly elevate this defense from below average to great, and help us get the most out of our young secondary.

2. Offer Tua to the Highest Bidder - Move Down and Draft Okudah, Brown or Simmons

This is self-explanatory, and something most of us have advocated for since the draft discussions have began. Adding pick value and still landing one of these three is a win-win scenario.

3. If We Stay at 3 - Draft Tua (assuming the medical checks out)

It's not a move that fans will love now, but it could very well elevate this team from mediocre-at-best to perennial contender for the next 8+ years. That's what true franchise quarterbacks can do, and many believe that Tua is that type of player. He'll need time to get fully healthy (and time never hurts a young QB), which is perfect, as Stafford will have an opportunity to show him the NFL ropes during his first year. Stafford will turn 32 before the start of the 2020 season and his reoccurring back injuries could potentially cut his career short. The medical eval here is key: if it doesn't check out, he should be avoided. If it does, though, this is a move that could set this franchise on the right track for the foreseeable future.

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On 1/23/2020 at 9:26 AM, Sllim Pickens said:

Probably time to pull this back up as well. This "He's going to get those boys slaughtered on Saturday" was quite the garbage take, considering how the Patricia-led North team destroyed the South today.

(Sorry to disappoint the Patricia haters out there.)

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10 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Probably time to pull this back up as well. This "He's going to get those boys slaughtered on Saturday" was quite the garbage take, considering how the Patricia-led North team destroyed the South today.

(Sorry to disappoint the Patricia haters out there.)

This is exactly what I was thinking as I watched the game on Saturday. The more limber team came out on top. 

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