Picking #3

[Karnage84]

9 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

The point is that you would have two impact players instead of one - Kerrigan and Okudah for example instead of just Okudah - for minimal cost, especially when you factor in the higher return you’d get from the Dolphins to move down from 2 to 5 instead of 3 to 5. 

Not to mention 2nd round picks have a greater than 50% chance of busting and 3rd round picks have a greater chance of busting. And even if they don’t bust, they’re usually not impact players year 1.  Not ideal for a staff on the hot seat. 
 

The incentive for the GM is to get both Kerrigan and #2 overall, which is more valuable in a trade down than holding #3 overall would be. It’s an “everyone wins” situation, so why does it matter if the Redskins still get the guy they want if the Lions end up getting more than they’d otherwise have gotten without the deal.

 

I’m just not sure why this is relevant. They traded down 1 spot and got a 3rd and a 4th from that draft and a 3rd the next year due to the risk the Bears would take a far inferior prospect than Young (Thomas). The Redskins should get even more than that, especially if they’re including a high impact player in the trade as well. If the Lions say they’d take Young, there is no trade and that’s that.  But the point of this is that the Lions would rather have Kerrigan and Okudah or Kerrigan and #5 and extra compensation from the Dolphins over just Okudah or just #5 and extra compensation. 
 

Why are you so focused on the motive from the Redskins perspective?  I guess a win-win isn’t possible in your eyes?

There would be no deal if the Lions said they were taking Young. 

I believe it was Charley Casserly (I heard this on a podcast and can't remember exactly who the source is) that said the bulk of the league starters are made up of 1st and 2nd round guys. 1st round picks on average have a bust rate of 50%. That bust rate is substantially lower in the top 5 and top 10 than it is in the bottom half of the 1st round. We've seen 2nd round guys have big impacts. A number of the top WR's in the league last year were 2nd round rookies. For the Lions in a position where they have a number of holes, having more picks is only going to help increase the potential hit rate/decrease the bust rate. 

Trading up from #3 to #2 is only going to net the Lions the same return in a trade down to #5 as it would going from #3 to #5. The trade value chart is really just a guide. Sometimes things can be over valued and other times things can be under valued. A team that REALLY wants a player might over pay to get him while a team that is desperate to add picks might be willing to take a discount. Having multiple teams interested in a single player at a key spot (like Tua at #3) can increase that overall premium. 

I also don't think there is anything where a team would make a deal with a handshake agreement to not take a particular player. Maybe Quinn tries to follow your suggestion and add a guy like Kerrigan, get extra picks, etc. then Mrs. Ford tells him that we're drafting Chase Young at #2 despite the gentleman's agreement that was made. Or maybe they're willing to take the reputational hit for a generational talent in Young. I actually think most teams would look at Washington sitting there at #3, losing their guy and complaining about it as organizational incompetence. Sometimes you're just best to not get too greedy, keep things simple and take the guy that you really want. 

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

15 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

If Mahommed Sanu is worth a 2nd and Percy Harvin was worth a 1st, 4th, plus more, and Emmanuel Sanders was worth a 3rd and 4th, and Leonard Williams was worth a 3rd and 4th, what do you think Kerrigan is worth?  
 

I digress.  The overrating of 2nd and 3rd round picks by fans strikes again I see. O well.
 

Hope you guys get lucky and find two legit starters with your 2nd and 3rd this year.  Carry on .

Oh boy.

I mean, we could look back on the numerous quality players that netted meager draft resources in a trade (Snacks Harrison for a 5th?), or compare the ages and contracts (Harvin was 24 at the time of the trade and Leonard Williams was/is 25), or note that it was Sanders and a 5th for a 3rd and a 4th. None of it speaks to Kerrigan, a 31 year old with one year left on his $11.5M contract. It's my belief that you've seriously overvalued him here, as I don't see him being worth a mid 2nd round pick. Not even close. (It seems like "the overrating of aging, expensive veterans" also strikes again.)

I'd probably give a 4th for him. In a draft this deep at key positions, I'm not willing to give more. The player that falls to our early 2nd round pick is essentially a 1st round talent, and that early 3rd round pick is more valuable than Kerrigan. Late 3rd? Possibly. Our 3rd isn't late.

[detroitroar]

48 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

If Mahommed Sanu is worth a 2nd and Percy Harvin was worth a 1st, 4th, plus more, and Emmanuel Sanders was worth a 3rd and 4th, and Leonard Williams was worth a 3rd and 4th, what do you think Kerrigan is worth?  
 

I digress.  The overrating of 2nd and 3rd round picks by fans strikes again I see. O well.
 

Hope you guys get lucky and find two legit starters with your 2nd and 3rd this year.  Carry on .

Keep your crap elsewhere. Please.

[HTTRDynasty]

Snacks was a run stuffer, c’mon man. The ages are good points, but Sanu and Sanders aren’t exactly spring chickens and are inferior talents to Kerrigan on top of that. 
 

Reading the comments, I think my perception of your team’s situation must just be completely off. So what is the plan for you guys at pass rusher this offseason?  I’ve seen posters say they want to take a WR in round 2.  So pass rusher in the 3rd?  Someone like Markus Golden in free agency?  Most of the top guys will be either franchise-tagged or cost a fortune. Not sure you guys have the cap for that. 
 

Are the coach and GM not on the hot seat this year?   Do they not value pass rush highly?

[Karnage84]

1 minute ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Snacks was a run stuffer, c’mon man. The ages are good points, but Sanu and Sanders aren’t exactly spring chickens and are inferior talents to Kerrigan on top of that. 
 

Reading the comments, I think my perception of your team’s situation must just be completely off. So what is the plan for you guys at pass rusher this offseason?  I’ve seen posters say they want to take a WR in round 2.  So pass rusher in the 3rd?  Someone like Markus Golden in free agency?  Most of the top guys will be either franchise-tagged or cost a fortune. Not sure you guys have the cap for that. 
 

Are the coach and GM not on the hot seat this year?   Do they not value pass rush highly?

I'll speak for myself but i do appreciate that you are coming in here and asking questions about another team. We all have different perspectives on the direction of the Lions but a number of the key issues seem to be universal. 

First and foremost, the Lions need impact players and principally on defense. We have very little that would be recognized as a pass-rush. The Lions seem to be more focused on coverage's leading to pressures as opposed to having pressure from the front seven guys leading to sacks. The Lions only rushed 3 like 13% of the time, which I believe was double or triple the next team that did it. They are emphasizing the secondary which means that a guy like Okudah is highly valuable in this scheme. They aren't as focused on double digit sack numbers. We're sitting at pick #3 for a reason, so one could argue against the philosophy but it is what it is. Maybe Undlin changes that a bit but I dunno. 

We do need a guy opposite of Flowers but what we REALLY need is a run-stuffing, space eater in the middle. If that guy can also rush the passer then we're golden. Which is why I like a guy like DJ Reader as a FA option. Just getting someone consistent opposite of Flowers would be a big help. 

We don't know what is going to happen with Slay. We've had enough bad press with Calvin being upset about his $1M bonus. Slay is heavily involved in the community. They should just pay him a bit of an increase and keep him on board. He still might not be satisfied and they will need contingency plans for a team that is so heavily reliant on the secondary. 

FA is going to have a big impact on what we do in the draft. With this being such a deep WR draft I don't see a need to take a guy in rd 2 when we have many other needs. Marvin Jones is still an effective player, Marvin Hall has a chance to develop as more than a deep threat, Fulgham is waiting in the wings, etc. We should still bring in a vet guy in the off-season and draft a WR, especially with multiple picks in a trade down. I just don't see the need to take one so early unless they're BPA by far. 

Quinn and Patricia are on the hot seat but it isn't SB or bust. Patricia can't coach like he has infinite job security but you also can't play to not lose. Same goes for Quinn. They have to treat their roster and draft capital in a way where they expect to be here next year but with some urgency. Taking a one year approach is going to leave the cupboard very bare and you better hope you get deep into the playoffs to justify it. Otherwise you might as well have gone 3-13 because you'll be gone next season anyway. 

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

32 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Snacks was a run stuffer, c’mon man. The ages are good points, but Sanu and Sanders aren’t exactly spring chickens and are inferior talents to Kerrigan on top of that. 
 

Reading the comments, I think my perception of your team’s situation must just be completely off. So what is the plan for you guys at pass rusher this offseason?  I’ve seen posters say they want to take a WR in round 2.  So pass rusher in the 3rd?  Someone like Markus Golden in free agency?  Most of the top guys will be either franchise-tagged or cost a fortune. Not sure you guys have the cap for that. 
 

Are the coach and GM not on the hot seat this year?   Do they not value pass rush highly?

My mentality is that it's definitely possible we move down and aquire extra picks, to include at least a 2nd. I feel that Okudah should be the target in round 1, but that the team will/could spend a 2nd or 3rd on a pass-rusher.

I have WR being a need, as Jones is aging and has one year left. This is the perfect draft to land a 1st round WR talent in the early 2nd round.

Having a need for a pass-rusher does not mean that I'm interested in trading an early 2nd and early 3rd for a 31 year old entering the last year of his contract with a $11.5M cap hit.

Edited February 10, 2020 by TL-TwoWinsAway

[HTTRDynasty]

@Karnage84 Thanks for the detailed response. I did not know that about your primary focus being on coverage rather than pass rush.  According to PFF and other analytics sites, coverage is more important than pass rush collectively, so I can see why Patricia would go that route. Seems to be a Belichick philosophy as well. 
 

Wouldn’t Harrison qualify as your run-stuffing space eater?  Or are you saying you need one in addition to him? 
 

Yeah, I thought WR was the last position you guys needed. Part of the reason for my initial post was because this draft seems to be relatively weak at the positions you guys really need (EDGE, DT, LB, interior OL) so I thought a trade for Kerrigan would really help you guys. I’m honestly not too stubborn on the compensation. Even though I think he’s worth at least an early 3rd, just trading him to you guys straight up for an early 4th (which seems to be the consensus here) without the move from #3 to #2 is fine with me. Mostly because I really like and respect Kerrigan and want to give him a chance to start for a possible contender instead of coming off the bench for a rebuilding team (Redskins).  Kerrigan also takes excellent care of his body, and his game should translate very well as he ages, so I think he’d be a huge benefit to any team that trades for him an gives a 2-3 year extension, lowering his APY. 

[LionArkie]

25 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Snacks was a run stuffer, c’mon man. The ages are good points, but Sanu and Sanders aren’t exactly spring chickens and are inferior talents to Kerrigan on top of that. 
 

Reading the comments, I think my perception of your team’s situation must just be completely off. So what is the plan for you guys at pass rusher this offseason?  I’ve seen posters say they want to take a WR in round 2.  So pass rusher in the 3rd?  Someone like Markus Golden in free agency?  Most of the top guys will be either franchise-tagged or cost a fortune. Not sure you guys have the cap for that. 
 

Are the coach and GM not on the hot seat this year?   Do they not value pass rush highly?

Trey flowers, 40+ million in cap space, a healthy D-Line as opposed to last year and coverage sacks would be a starting point. I don't know of anyone on here who has regularly stated they wanted a 2nd round wr.  Maybe it was mentioned it would be considered if someone fell.  We like to have a WR as we have some getting older, but I wouldn't be happy if we took a wr in the second unless it was a very specific prospect.  Most have said they want as much D as possible.  Since Patricia is from NE and Detroit is NE Extra lite, do you ever remember NE having a huge pass rush?
Coach and GM are PROBABLY on the hot seat.  The verbiage the owner used was compete for a playoff spot, which can be looked at many different ways. I don't think they can go through another 3 win season and last, but I wouldn't be surprised if they win 7 games, Lions fans get another letter saying the "Lions need consistency in the front office" either.  And lastly, they are still in a build mold, or at least a lot of people believe
 

[Karnage84]

2 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

@Karnage84 Thanks for the detailed response. I did not know that about your primary focus being on coverage rather than pass rush.  According to PFF and other analytics sites, coverage is more important than pass rush collectively, so I can see why Patricia would go that route. Seems to be a Belichick philosophy as well. 
 

Wouldn’t Harrison qualify as your run-stuffing space eater?  Or are you saying you need one in addition to him? 
 

Yeah, I thought WR was the last position you guys needed. Part of the reason for my initial post was because this draft seems to be relatively weak at the positions you guys really need (EDGE, DT, LB, interior OL) so I thought a trade for Kerrigan would really help you guys. I’m honestly not too stubborn on the compensation. Even though I think he’s worth at least an early 3rd, just trading him to you guys straight up for an early 4th (which seems to be the consensus here) without the move from #3 to #2 is fine with me. Mostly because I really like and respect Kerrigan and want to give him a chance to start for a possible contender instead of coming off the bench for a rebuilding team (Redskins).  Kerrigan also takes excellent care of his body, and his game should translate very well as he ages, so I think he’d be a huge benefit to any team that trades for him an gives a 2-3 year extension, lowering his APY. 

Snacks is mulling retirement and he wasn't very good last year. Could be because of injury but we still need to find a guy to be his successor eventually. Losing Da'Shawn Hand to injury also played a big part in the issues we had on the defensive line. 

Yep - Patricia and BB follow very similar philosophies. It hasn't worked for us so who knows if it's the right way to go but it is what he does. 

The Lions are 100% a team that is better than their record and can be a bounce back team. We still have a lot of warts though and I wouldn't put us in the "contender". We could just as easily go 6-10 next year as we could be 10-6. Neither result would surprise me. 

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I digress.  The overrating of 2nd and 3rd round picks by fans strikes again I see. O well.

It's really not the case.  If you compare the trade values of the picks the Lions give up (3005) and compare it against the Redskins (2600), the Redskins are receiving an extra mid-second round pick in value, which we could assign to Ryan Kerrigan for his value.  Do you think the 31 year old Ryan Kerrigan is legitimately worth the 49th/50th overall pick with 1 year, $11.7M left on his contract coming off a 5.5 sack season?  And then to make matters worse, you're expecting some sort of "gentlemen's agreement" so you can still get the guy you were going to take at 2 at 3 instead.  That's why there's no realism in this.

[HTTRDynasty]

6 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

It's really not the case.  If you compare the trade values of the picks the Lions give up (3005) and compare it against the Redskins (2600), the Redskins are receiving an extra mid-second round pick in value, which we could assign to Ryan Kerrigan for his value.  Do you think the 31 year old Ryan Kerrigan is legitimately worth the 49th/50th overall pick with 1 year, $11.7M left on his contract coming off a 5.5 sack season?  And then to make matters worse, you're expecting some sort of "gentlemen's agreement" so you can still get the guy you were going to take at 2 at 3 instead.  That's why there's no realism in this.

As I said, I'm very flexible on the compensation.  Kerrigan had a 5.5 sack season because he only played 11.5 games last year (missed games for the first time in his career).  He had 13 sacks the year before playing a full 16 games.  

The "gentlemen's agreement" is in play only if the Lions consider acquiring Kerrigan and the move up to #2 overall in a trade-down scenario worth it.  If not, as I've said, just trade for Kerrigan straight up or don't do any trade at all.  I get the sense that the majority on this thread are leaning towards the latter, which is fine.

[CWood21]

3 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

The "gentlemen's agreement" is in play only if the Lions consider acquiring Kerrigan and the move up to #2 overall in a trade-down scenario worth it.  If not, as I've said, just trade for Kerrigan straight up or don't do any trade at all.  I get the sense that the majority on this thread are leaning towards the latter, which is fine.

And as I asked before, are you willing to do the deal if the Lions won't agree to not select Chase Young at #2?

[HTTRDynasty]

Just now, CWood21 said:

And as I asked before, are you willing to do the deal if the Lions won't agree to not select Chase Young at #2?

Would I want to do a deal if the parameters of the deal were ignored?  Obviously not.  That just makes the whole deal pointless.  Why would they even want Kerrigan if that was the case?

[CWood21]

Just now, HTTRDynasty said:

Would I want to do a deal if the parameters of the deal were ignored?  Obviously not.  That just makes the whole deal pointless.  Why would they even want Kerrigan if that was the case?

Because you're missing the entirety of my post.  The only reason you're even considering this is because you're getting the player you want (Chase Young) and still picking up extra assets in the process.  That's not how the NFL works.  You either get the guy you want or you get the extra assets.  Which is worth more to you?

[HTTRDynasty]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

That's not how the NFL works. 

So the Redskins didn't get the guy they wanted in Doctson, plus extra assets from the Texans to move down one spot in the 2016 first round of the draft?